Your Minor Opinions staff presents to you the 2005 Astros Top 10 list. Among other variables, we considered age, talent, production, and the combination of those factors to determine who belonged and who didn’t. We have also included information on players who were considered for the list and rejected. Finally you will find a list of players who did not merit consideration for the top 10 list but in our opinion are players to watch for a variety of reasons.
1.Chris Burke: 3/11/80. The Astros invested more than $2 million in Burke in order to get him signed after the 2001 draft and look to start cashing in on that investment in the 2005 season. Burke has steadily improved his work over the past three years. Forced to skip high-A ball after a successful low-A debut in 2001, Chris had a disappointing first year at AA Round Rock. He hit just .264 with only 30 extra base hits. His second stint at AA saw Burke improve his average to .301 while recording 34 extra base hits, improving his strikeout-to-walk ratio, and stealing 34 bases, and earning him team MVP. Last season at AAA New Orleans, Burke had a career year, hitting .314 while slugging 53 extra base hits and stealing 37 bases. Defensively he has very good range, a decent glove and adequate arm for second base. His footwork isn’t stellar but he continues to make progress. Burke has been unfairly pegged as the next Craig Biggio; he’s not likely to be a borderline Hall of Famer. If 2004 was not a fluke, it should not be unreasonable to expect Burke to have a fine if unspectacular MLB career. MLB PROJECTION: Starting second baseman.
2.Ezequiel “Zeke” Astacio: 11/4/79. As most of you know Astacio was acquired as the third player in the Wagner trade after the 2003 season. His stint with the Phillies was marked by good won/loss records and ERA’s with very average strikeout totals. He demonstrated good control but generally gave up as many hits as innings pitched. After his change of organization, Astacio added MPH to his fastball and began recording excellent strikeout totals, finishing with more than one K/IP. He also lowered his hits to innings pitched ratio. Interestingly, his 3.89 ERA was actually the worst of his career. We’re sure most pitchers would like to be able to say that. Zeke needs to work on his consistency and refining his off-speed pitches. Astacio has a spot at AAA Round Rock waiting for him, if he’s not with the Astros to start the 2005 season. MLB PROJECTION: #2 or #3 starter.
3.Willy Taveras: 12/25/81. Willy’s hallmark has always been speed. Probably the fastest man in the Astros organization, Willy is a constant threat with his legs. With Cleveland Willy was unremarkable with his bat, hitting from the low .260’s to low .280’s with no power and lots of stolen bases. Upon coming to the Astros though, Taveras had a career year leading the AA Texas League with a .331 average and 53 stolen bases. He did however strikeout twice as many times as he walked and had a strained hip flexor that cut short his AA and Arizona Fall League seasons. However, by all accounts he’s healthy this spring. Taveras began working on switch hitting last year, and that remains a work in progress. We would like to see him cut down on the strikeouts and increase his walks to prove last season was no fluke. The Astros organization would like to see Willy at AAA Round Rock this year, but he’s got an outside shot at making the Astros out of spring. We expect Willy to be in AAA to start the season. MLB PROJECTION: Starting centerfielder.
4.Fernando Nieve: 7/15/82. After spending two excellent years at rookie league Martinsville, Fernando has spent a season each at Lexington and Salem, mastering both levels. Nieve posted a sub-3.00 ERA at Salem in 2004 after having a mid-3.00 ERA in Lexington in 03. Fernando seemed to improve his work within the strike zone as the number of walks declined by a large margin. His strikeouts also came down quite a bit, but as the number of hits given up didn’t change much it’s clear the strikeouts lost were outs made elsewhere. Nieve seems slotted into the Corpus rotation for 2005, and we expect him to have another fine season. MLB PROJECTION: #3 or #4 starter.
5.Hector Gimenez: 9/28/82. Most of those who have been paying attention know the book on Gimenez: great defense, questionable bat. Hector spent the 2004 season as a 21 year old catcher in AA. That his defense is so good is quite impressive for a young catcher playing at such a high level of baseball. It shouldn’t be too surprising that his offensive work hasn’t been impressive. Gimenez has been on the Astros’ fast-track since arriving in the United States so repeating AA should be a good move for him and may allow for his bat to catch up with his glove. This season will be an interesting test. Hector’s low strikeout rate indicates he really has not had a problem making contact but he needs to start turning more of his outs into hits. If he can improve his batting average, Hector could move toward the big club in a hurry. MLB PROJECTION: Starting catcher.
6.Taylor Buchholz: 10/13/81. Buchholz had a forgettable 2004 season. He began the year poorly, managed to pitch better for part of the season and suffered injury. Taylor began throwing off a mound in early March as he recovers from shoulder surgery and biceps problems but is not slated to start the 2005 season. When healthy his arm holds a lot of promise and hopefully Buchholz will be healthy for all of 2005. We expect his recovery to occupy much of the season, but if he lights up AAA he could get a late season call-up. MLB PROJECTION: #3 or #4 starting pitcher.
7.Matt Albers: 1/20/83. Albers throws four plus pitches and in his three professional seasons he’s always had more strikeouts than innings pitched. He issues too many walks, but for a high strikeout guy some of that can be forgiven. He completely mastered low-A ball in 2004, however a big drawback is his off-field behavior. He’s been admonished by the Astros for drinking way too much and was even suspended from the team last season for a month while going through rehab. The Astros believe he’s getting past his problems, but we’ve heard recent rumblings that he may be fooling the club. If Matt gets his life together he could be a real force to be reckoned with. He’ll start 2005 at Salem. MLB PROJECTION: Poor man’s #1 or solid #2 starter.
8.Hunter Pence: 4/13/83. We were hesitant to include any player whose only professional work has been 1 year of short-season A-ball. However, considering the dearth of high level talent dominating the higher levels of professional baseball, we included two players who were drafted in 2004. The first is Hunter Pence. As you should know from the 2004 Draft Review and Roundup, Pence was drafted for his speed and power, and he delivered that at Tri-City. As he continues to refine his swing and his defensive work we expect Pence to rise rapidly. We expect him to begin 2005 in Lexington but expect a mid-season call-up to Salem. MLB PROJECTION: Starting leftfielder and potential All-Star.
9.Josh Anderson: 8/10/82. Anderson spent the first part of the 2004 season tearing up the low-A South Atlantic League. He hit over .320 and stole nearly 50 bases. His excellent work earned him a promotion to high-A Salem. From there the wheels (no pun intended) came off a bit. He did steal 31 more bases there but hit to the tune of just .268 while striking out way too much and walking way too little. We see Josh starting the 2005 season at Salem with a mid-season call-up to AA Corpus Christi if he hits well. MLB PROJECTION: Starting centerfielder.
10.Troy Patton: 9/3/85. Patton is the second 2004 draftee on this list. Troy is here because he dominated the Appalachian League, throws hard, and is left-handed. He had a sub-2.00 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched and a better than 6/1 strikeout to walk ratio. Troy could well be on the fast-track with the Astros. We believe he’ll start the season with Lexington though an assignment to Tri-City is not out of the question. MLB PROJECTION: #2 or #3 starter.
At this point, we wanted to make note of some of the players you may be wondering about and perhaps why they did not make this list. There was some level of debate about each of these and whether each should be included in the top 10.
Luke Scott was heavily considered for a spot in the top 10. He has shown that he can hit for power and a fair average at the AA level. He’s also shown he can handle leftfield defensively. However, at 26 and going to be 27 at the end of June, and having less than one season above single A ball Luke doesn’t exactly fit the bill of a classic prospect. That doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t have a successful major league career. But, age is a strong consideration and given the fact that the other outfield prospects in the top 10 are significantly younger and/or on a faster projection to the upper minors and big leagues, we felt Scott didn’t meet the criteria for the top 10.
Brooks Conrad is another player who was considered. Conrad is a solid second baseman who brings a number of things to the table: tenacity, hard work, power, consistency. Conrad doesn’t bring anything spectacular to the ballpark. His range is average, he’s never hit above .290 at any level, and he doesn’t have a lot of speed. For those reasons and that the Astros don’t appear at this point to see him as more than a utility player we felt other players offered a higher ceiling than Brooks.
Jason Hirsh was also given consideration and if he were a lefty would probably have made it. Jason had a great season at Tri-City in 2003 then struggled a bit with his mechanics and consequently his velocity in 2004 and did not put up the numbers some hoped. The reason he’s not included is that he has not spent a full season dominating a league. We understand that Jason has worked hard on being mechanically consistent and if he dominates AA, as we expect him to be in Corpus this season, he will likely be included in next year’s top 10, possibly top 5.
After struggling in his first season at AA in 2003, Tommy Whiteman had a very good half season at AA in 2004 prior to his promotion to AAA. However, at AAA, Tommy struggled a bit with his batting average and lack of power. Unfortunately his season ended prematurely with a broken finger. Tommy needs to play well for the entire 2005 season at AAA and show that he’s ready to join the big league club. Unfortunately for Tommy, Adam Everett has locked down the shortstop position in Houston and barring injury it’s hard to imagine Tommy getting a shot at the starting job in Houston for some time to come.
Ben Zobrist was briefly considered for the list only because he so thoroughly dominated the New York/Penn League. But, honestly, he was too old and too advanced for short-season A-ball. As mentioned in the 2004 Draft Roundup, we expect Ben to be in Salem for 2005, and he needs to play very well there to be considered a top prospect in the Astros system.
Ronnie Martinez was also briefly considered for the list as he too dominated the NYPL. However, Ronnie lacks a dominant pitch, and we don’t currently see him dominating higher leagues.
We’re sure many of you are wondering why Hunter Pence and Troy Patton were included on the top 10 and not Mitch Einertson. As mentioned earlier we did not easily include anyone whose only professional experience is one season of short-season baseball. Mitch did have a well-documented monster year offensively and for that merited consideration for the list. However, he was not included in the top 10 because we have heard some very troubling grumblings about his off-field activities. He was also a flop at the Florida Instructional League and his high strikeout numbers bother us quite a bit when projected to higher levels of pitching. However, if Mitch has an excellent year at Lexington it would be hard to leave him off next year’s list.
Finally, we wanted to provide you with some players we believe are ones to watch. Although the previous list certainly contains players to watch as well, these are guys you may or may not have heard of that appear to be developing into players that could contribute at the big league level but have not done enough to earn mention as far as the top 10 list goes. The names are in alphabetical order so as not to give you the impression we favor one over another, and we don’t.
Jimmy Barthmaier spent his first two professional seasons in rookie ball. While there he pitched fairly well and was on the Astros Florida Instructional League roster. Jimmy’s got a live arm and has had a great deal of instruction. He should be a starter for Lexington in 2005, and we expect big things from him there.
Raymar Diaz was primarily an outfielder and pitched as a closer in junior college but was converted to a full-time pitcher during his first pro season. He has an imposing size at 6’8”. He has also made a fairly rapid conversion to the mound culminating in being in the starting playoff rotation for Tri-City. Last season he gave up fewer hits than innings pitched and averaged nearly a strikeout per inning pitched. We expect Diaz to either be at Lexington or Salem for the 2005 season.
Juan Gutierrez, like Barthmaier, spent his second season at rookie ball. His performance showed the Astros enough to warrant including him on the 40-man roster. He has shown a good assortment of pitches: fastball, slider, changeup. Juan has the mound presence and intangibles the Astros look for, good citizenship and poise. Gutierrez is expected to begin the season at Lexington and could move up quickly.
Charlton Jimerson further established his reputation for lack of recognition of pitches and inability to hit for average despite expectations by some that he was going to turn the corner. Jimerson remains a player to watch because whenever he does make contact he shows his immense ability. Charlton met with Tony Gwynn in the off-season to help improve his plate coverage and work in the batter’s box. We expect to see Charlton in AAA this season and if he does turn the corner in 2005, well, let’s just say the Astros wouldn’t have a better outfielder in the system.
Edwin Maysonet did everything last season except hit for high average. As a middle infielder he was second on the Lexington squad in extra base hits and got on base at an excellent clip. He’s an excellent defender who got hitting instruction at the instructional league last fall. If everything else holds and Edwin can get a few more base hits in Salem in 2005 he could really move up the organizational depth charts.
Jamie Merchant has excellent stuff as evidenced by his very good work in 2003 at Tri-City. Most of you know that the Astros took exception to Jamie’s weight last season and demoted him to extended spring training. We believe Jamie has sufficiently addressed the weight issue and is now poised to show what he can do over the course of a full season. We believe he will be in Corpus but a reassignment to Salem is not out of the question.
Jordan Parraz’s 2004 season was documented in the ’04 Draft Roundup so we won’t rehash it here. Suffice it to say Jordan as a lot of skills and talent and appears to want to learn as much as he can. We think he is going to take his instruction and translate it this season into production. He could land in either Lexington or Tri-City.
Lou Santangelo is well liked and respected in the Astros organization for his catching skills and leadership. His hitting, however, is a work in progress. Santangelo has tremendous power but needs to learn to make more consistent contact. He spent time in the instructional league and hopefully his hitting will improve this year. If he does hit well, his stock will rise extremely fast and might ultimately supplant Gimenez as the top catcher in the Astros system. Lou should begin this season in Lexington.
Wladimir Sutil is an excellent defensive shortstop with a very good arm and terrific speed. He spent his first year in the U.S. at Greeneville and played quite well. He hit nearly .300 and led the team in stolen bases by 15. He’s not going to be a power hitter but as a shortstop with his skill set the power is not needed. We see no reason he won’t continue to play excellent baseball and expect him to begin the 2005 season at Tri-City.