The season may have ended a week earlier than hoped, but Houston fans will remember 2004 as one of the finest years in franchise history. The campaign not only took the Astros and their followers on a thrilling ride. It also served as a reminder of a number of lessons that are easily forgotten in more mundane seasons.
1. The game is played on the field, not on paper.
Axiomatic though this lesson may be, it was difficult to bear in mind after last winter, when the Astros brought two hometown World Series champion pitchers into their rotation. With Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte added to a club that had missed the playoffs by just one game in 2003, a postseason berth and even a pennant seemed to many virtually assured.
With a blast-off that had the Astros atop the Central Division by three games at 21-11 on May 11, things appeared to be going precisely according to plan. Then rather abruptly Houston’s march to the playoffs became mired in a three-month effort not to fall into the cellar.
Even the most cynical observer shunning the pre-season hype would have had difficulty predicting that the Astros would be 56-60 and just 1-1/2 games out of last place on Aug. 14. Given the talent on the roster, Houston’s 35-49 mid-season swoon was inexplicable — without remembering that a list of names on paper does not necessarily translate to what happens on the field.
A counter-point to Houston’s experience was that of St. Louis. Left for third behind the Astros and Cubs in pre-season predictions, the Cardinals featured a fearsome offense but iffy pitching — on paper. On May 8, St. Louis was 15-16 and in fifth place, 4-1/2 games behind Houston.
The Cardinals proceeded from there to go 90-41. They climbed into first place for good on June 11 and never looked back. St. Louis extended its lead to a season-high 17-1/2 games on Sept. 5 and Sept. 7, ultimately claiming 105 victories and finishing 13 games ahead of the runner-up Astros.
Even the most well-founded pre-season predictions are bound to fail sometimes, which is what makes baseball worth following: you never know the outcome for sure until it actually happens.
2. It ain’t over ’til it’s over.
Yogi Berra’s cliche is a corollary to the previous lesson. As impetuous as it is to put a team in the playoffs before the season begins, leaving a club for dead before mathematical elimination can be similarly foolhardy.
Granted, Houston’s 36-10 finish in 2004 has only been surpassed by one team in National League history — the 1951 Giants, who closed at 38-8 and played three extra regular-season games to break a tie with the Dodgers, winning on Bobby Thomson’s “shot heard ’round the world” home run.
Moreover, no team before Houston had climbed over seven other teams so late in the season to make the playoffs. On Aug. 14, the Astros trailed the Cubs, Padres, Giants, Phillies, Marlins and Mets and were tied with the Reds. Even the Pirates and Brewers were within 1-1/2 games of the Astros.
But because something has not been done before does not make it impossible. (Just ask the Yankees after blowing a 3-0 lead to the Red Sox in the ALCS. I rashly wrote a week ago, “With the Yankees poised to defeat the Red Sox for what seems like the 73rd straight season in the tiresomely repetitive Junior Circuit series …”)
The Astros cannot count on a torrid finish ever year to overcome a three-month mid-season slump, but in future seasons it would be wise to wait a bit longer before writing them off. You never know what the late season will bring.
3. Getting hot is as important as being good.
The most crucial period in Houston’s 2004 comeback was its 12-game winning streak from Aug. 27 to Sept. 8. During that span the Astros moved from fifth place and six games out to tied for the wild-card lead. They outscored their opponents 109-59, a Herculean nine runs per game produced by the offense.
The squad that embarked on that streak was not significantly different than the one that had gone 12-11 the previous three weeks of August or, for that matter, 27-28 since the acquisition of Carlos Beltran on June 25. Or, indeed, 20-19 since the hiring of manager Phil Garner after the All-Star break.
In fact, when the streak began the Astros were already beyond losing Pettitte and Wade Miller to injuries. There was no additional help in sight, except for some September call-ups to add to the mix in a depleted and unstable bullpen and back of the rotation.
With more or less the same players in place, however, the Astros got hot and rolled through the National League undefeated for two weeks. They stayed on fire and finished the regular season with another winning streak of seven games, including snapping off 18 consecutive victories at home.
Of course, the Astros were not the only team to win 12 straight games in 2004. The lowly Devil Rays turned the trick from June 9 to June 22, despite going 21-34 before and 37-57 after the streak.
Baseball is a funny game. A team that looks like the Bad News Bears for weeks or months can become the 1927 Yankees for a week or two or more. Sports radio callers, Internet posters and baseball writers might all have bright ideas of personnel moves and playing strategies to fix the problem.
But often success is simply a matter of spontaneous combustion, with everyone getting into a groove at the same time and everything breaking the club’s way. No amount of armchair managing can make as big a difference as getting hot. The Astros lit up precisely when they needed to, and it was as attributable to alchemy or voodoo as to any concrete moves or strategy.
4. Success depends on unexpected contributions.
A winning team counts on its workhorses to perform. The Astros certainly got that down the stretch. After Aug. 14, Clemens went 6-0 with a 3.57 ERA, Roy Oswalt went 8-2 with a 3.24 ERA and Brad Lidge went 2-0 with 17 saves in 19 opportunities and a 1.65 ERA.
But who would have expected Brandon Backe to go 4-2 with a 3.80 ERA over that span?
Or the performances of Dan Miceli (1.72 ERA, no earned runs in 16 of 19 appearances), Chad Qualls (2.17 ERA, no earned runs in 16 of 22 appearances), Chad Harville (2.16 ERA, no earned runs in 17 of 19 appearances), Dan Wheeler (2.51 ERA, no earned runs in 12 of 14 appearances) or Russ Springer (2.63 ERA, no earned runs in 13 of 16 appearances)?
Offensively, the big guns came through from Aug. 15 to the end of the season. In the lead-off spot, Craig Biggio hit 17 doubles and seven home runs, scoring 29 and driving in 20 runs.
In the heart of the order, Lance Berkman batted .335 with a .422 OBP, .617 slugging percentage, 11 doubles, 12 home runs, 34 runs, 36 RBI and 25 walks.
Jeff Kent batted .304 with a .371 OBP, .658 slugging percentage, 11 doubles, three triples, 13 home runs, 36 runs, 41 RBI and 17 walks.
Beltran batted .281 with a .394 OBP, .587 slugging percentage, nine doubles, six triples, 10 home runs, 41 runs, 26 RBI, 31 walks and 16 stolen bases in 16 attempts.
Jeff Bagwell, who many fans were ready to put out to pasture in mid-summer, batted .279 with a .377 OBP, .506 slugging percentage, 10 doubles, nine home runs, 32 runs, 33 RBI and 27 walks.
As a group, this quartet of Beltran, Bagwell, Berkman and Kent, in 664 at-bats during Houston’s final 46 regular-season games, batted .300 with a .391 OBP, .590 slugging percentage, 41 doubles, 10 triples, 44 home runs, 143 runs, 136 RBI, 100 walks and 25 stolen bases in 30 attempts.
But they had help as well. Mike Lamb batted .273 with a .348 OBP, .496 slugging percentage, seven doubles, six home runs, 18 runs, 20 RBI and 14 walks. Morgan Ensberg batted .312 with a .361 OBP, .481 slugging percentage, four doubles, three home runs, 13 runs and 17 RBI.
Down the stretch, this third-base tandem combined for 198 at-bats with a .288 batting average, .353 OBP, .490 slugging percentage, 11 doubles, nine home runs, 31 runs, 37 RBI and 20 walks.
Limited to 32 at-bats, Jason Lane batted .438 with a .471 OBP, .656 slugging percentage, eight runs and eight RBI. Jose Vizcaino chipped in 10 doubles, 16 runs and 15 RBI. Even catchers Brad Ausmus and Raul Chavez combined to score 18 and drive in 17 runs.
Almost all hands pitched in as the Astros got back on track. And without contributions from unexpected places, Houston would not have made its narrow escape with the wild card.
5. The desire to win is addictive.
Humble though Astros fans may have been after 42 years without winning a postseason series and only once coming within one game of the World Series, sights were set high in 2004. The three-month mid-season slump convinced many followers that this year was another disappointment, though.
Then the Astros caught fire after Aug. 15, and it became fashionable to believe that even if they missed the postseason, at least they had made an effort at the end to chase the wild card.
When the Astros actually claimed the wild card, it seemed possible that this year they might finally beat the Braves and for the first time win a playoff series. But at minimum the hope was to play competitively and avoid being swept by Atlanta again.
The Astros knocked off the Braves, and ambitions rose to hanging tough with a strong Cardinals team. After going down 0-2 in St. Louis, Houston fans felt confident that Clemens, Oswalt and Backe would at least send the series back to St. Louis.
And they did. After winning Game 5 to go up 3-2, it seemed almost manifest that the Astros would reach the World Series. Their defeat in Games 6 and 7 was a tough pill to swallow.
There is every reason to take pride in a team that came from four games under .500 with six weeks left in the season to climb over seven teams for the wild card, take out a division leader to reach the NLCS and stretch the team with baseball’s best record to seven games, at the very brink of making the World Series.
But it has often been said that Houston fans are willing to settle for less, for a mere division title or playoff berth. That proved untrue. As the Astros became more and more successful and confident in themselves, fans became more and more ambitious to see them win it all.
As of Aug. 15, simply winning the wild card looked like a major victory. As the wild card came into focus, the thought of just getting past the first round looked like a point of great satisfaction. When the Astros departed St. Louis 0-2, picking off some games at home was a big thing.
But when they reached the threshold, up 3-2 on Backe and Lidge’s one-hit shutout performance in Game 5, Astros fans were as hungry as any in baseball to witness their club seize the pennant and World Series rings.
Astros fans were not content merely to see the team make the postseason or win a series. They turned up in noisy droves at Minute Maid Park and forcefully cheered for the Astros to reach the next level.
Once you get close enough to taste it, there is no going back. It was a tough hill to climb, as exciting as can be to watch them ascend it, and disappointing to see them denied so close to the top. But Astros fans should now be able to visualize their team winning it all, something that was a blurry image for 43 years.
And that was the most important lesson of 2004. This team can do this. It will never be easy — the Cardinals won 105 games and absent a Jim Edmonds highlight film catch were on the edge of being eliminated by a team they bested by 13 games in the regular season — but the possibility is there for the Astros in 2005 and beyond.
There is no curse. Only opportunities waiting to be seized.