A Team Effort
Seven weeks ago, I wrote, “As the season unfolds, and if the Astros continue to prosper, it should not be surprising if most of the games they lose are tight — their pitching staff should ensure that — but that many of their wins will be by a wide margin — the offense will help out in that regard.”
No sooner had my gums finished flapping (or, rather, my keyboard finished rattling) than did the Astros start losing fairly frequently in earnest. The pitching got worse, and the offense got a lot worse. Regardless of how close the game, the Astros have struggled.
Actually, the slide started a couple of games earlier. I had written off dropping two of three at home to the Marlins as an aberration against a younger, speedier opponent. In fact, that series straddled the turning point for the Astros.
On May 11, just a week after passing Steve Carlton for runner-up to Nolan Ryan on the all-time K-list, Roger Clemens spun his finest masterpiece of the season, extending his record to 7-0 with a three-hit, 11-strikeout performance over the Marlins. Florida’s Brad Penny threw a heckuva game as well, but the Astros offense came alive in the late innings to put it away 6-1.
The next night, Florida’s Dontrelle Willis turned the tables on Wade Miller and the Good Guys, Houston’s bats falling asleep in a 5-2 loss. Carl Pavano similarly shut down the Astros the next night, despite a fine performance by Tim Redding. Nonetheless, after scoring a run in the bottom of the eight to break a 1-1 tie, the Astros had the game in hand if not for two runs surrendered by Octavio Dotel in the top of the ninth. Houston went down 3-2.
The first game of the series was a showcase of what the Astros had been doing to win in their first six weeks of the season. Games two and three are painful memories of what has become commonplace since then.
Through May 11, the Astros were 21-11, scoring 5.8 runs per game with a .283 batting average and posting a 3.62 ERA. After May 11, the Astros are 19-27, scoring 3.7 runs per game with a .259 batting average and posting a 4.11 ERA.
The first leg of the season they outscored their opponents by 1.9 runs per game. Since then their opponents have outscored them by 0.5 runs per game. The Astros were playing .656 against foes through 33 games. Their foes have played .587 against them the next 46.
If there is a silver lining, it is that the Astros were more of a good team when cruising than they have a bad team when sliding. But they have now struggled for two weeks longer than they surged. At 40-38, they have almost given back everything they earned.
Where have you gone, Jeff Bagwell?
In the six games since his acquisition, Carlos Beltran is batting .417 with a .500 on-base percentage, .958 slugging percentage, 10 hits, four home runs, eight runs, four RBI and three walks in 27 plate appearances. Just like Clemens (at least until his recent signs of mortality), Beltran has paid off in spades.
One player does not a team make, however, even if he is a large part of the difference between the Astros having gone 2-4 instead of 0-6 since his arrival. If the Astros are going to recover a semblance of their former selves, other cogs in the offensive machine must again begin to turn.
And as the overly long chart below shows, most of those cogs have ossified in the Astros line-up. In fact, except for Lance Berkman, every other hitter scored and drove in more, as many or almost as many runs through the club’s first 33 games than in the most recent 46 games. Here is a player-by-player report of the damage:
Biggio PA R RBI Avg OBP Slg RC27 ----------------------------------------------- Thru 5/11 130 25 22 .339 .369 .597 9.0 Post 5/11 206 26 11 .271 .320 .401 4.8 Everett PA R RBI Avg OBP Slg RC27 ----------------------------------------------- Thru 5/11 129 24 7 .274 .302 .347 3.9 Post 5/11 146 21 7 .262 .288 .355 3.7 Bagwell PA R RBI Avg OBP Slg RC27 ----------------------------------------------- Thru 5/11 138 30 20 .322 .435 .530 9.2 Post 5/11 189 18 18 .236 .333 .394 4.6 Kent PA R RBI Avg OBP Slg RC27 ----------------------------------------------- Thru 5/11 130 25 25 .295 .338 .541 7.0 Post 5/11 166 21 27 .291 .367 .480 6.7 Berkman PA R RBI Avg OBP Slg RC27 ----------------------------------------------- Thru 5/11 130 22 24 .330 .500 .567 11.4 Post 5/11 188 24 34 .283 .420 .586 9.3 Ensberg PA R RBI Avg OBP Slg RC27 ----------------------------------------------- Thru 5/11 86 11 12 .260 .337 .351 4.3 Post 5/11 139 10 15 .281 .338 .352 4.5 Ausmus PA R RBI Avg OBP Slg RC27 ----------------------------------------------- Thru 5/11 105 12 7 .247 .305 .320 3.5 Post 5/11 139 6 10 .231 .281 .285 2.8 Vizcaino PA R RBI Avg OBP Slg RC27 ----------------------------------------------- Thru 5/11 42 1 3 .135 .238 .162 1.2 Post 5/11 95 9 3 .319 .347 .418 5.7 Lamb PA R RBI Avg OBP Slg RC27 ----------------------------------------------- Thru 5/11 52 7 14 .333 .385 .542 8.4 Post 5/11 64 6 10 .322 .375 .576 8.6 Palmeiro PA R RBI Avg OBP Slg RC27 ----------------------------------------------- Thru 5/11 31 3 5 .179 .258 .321 2.7 Post 5/11 51 6 3 .261 .333 .413 5.0 Lane PA R RBI Avg OBP Slg RC27 ----------------------------------------------- Thru 5/11 25 4 0 .222 .440 .333 5.1 Post 5/11 71 6 8 .235 .268 .426 4.0 Chavez PA R RBI Avg OBP Slg RC27 ----------------------------------------------- Thru 5/11 19 2 4 .316 .316 .421 5.2 Post 5/11 39 0 3 .171 .256 .229 1.9
Berkman, Jeff Kent and Mike Lamb have in fact maintained high levels of performance, although Berkman’s play has been uneven. (He batted .387 with a .521 on-base percentage and .785 slugging percentage in May, earning Player of the Month honors, but just .222 with a .406 on-base percentage and .370 slugging percentage in June.)
Morgan Ensberg has remained consistent before and during the slide, too, although that consistency comprises a middling on-base percentage and unacceptably low power numbers. Ensberg’s floundering should offer Lamb a chance to play more often. Adam Everett and Brad Ausmus have been similarly constant in their mediocrity at the plate.
Jose Vizcaino and Orlando Palmeiro have been bright spots since May 11, having left themselves much room for improvement up to that point. But when your good news comes in the form of bench players, your offense is in trouble.
And that trouble is nowhere better identified than in Jeff Bagwell. Yes, Craig Biggio has tailed off considerably after May 11. In his defense, though, nobody expected Biggio to continue slugging well over .500 throughout the season. Moreover, in June Biggio batted .278 with a .366 on-base percentage and .444 slugging percentage, pretty close to as well as the Astros should expect from him at this stage of his career.
The ailing Bagwell does not have these excuses to make — he has a bum shoulder to blame — but he is he prone to making excuses for himself. Bagwell’s month-by-month slide is cause for concern:
Month Avg OBP Slg ----------------------- April .316 .461 .570 May .272 .361 .408 June .245 .349 .415
After a June 14 cortisone shot in his right shoulder, it looked like Bagwell had bounced back. He rested June 15, then in eight games from June 16 through June 23, went 12-for-28 with a double, a triple, two home runs, five runs, three RBI, and five walks, good for a .429 batting average, .515 on-base percentage, and .750 slugging percentage.
Starting June 24, he plummeted back to earth. In seven games since then, Bagwell is 3-for-27 with one run scored, none driven in, two walks, and seven strikeouts. That translates to batting .111 with a .172 on-base percentage and .148 slugging percentage. Ouch.
It is too early to tell whether this is the end for Bagwell, but if he continues to decline like he has, it may be the end for Houston’s playoff chances. Bagwell has given this team too much since 1991 for it to give up on him, but everyone has to hope that he can make a comeback after resting his wing over the All-Star break.
Not close enough, too late
No discussion of the offensive woes would be complete with out discussing hitting in clutch situations. All Astros starters except Everett and Ausmus are batting at least .270 with runners in scoring position. Even with runners in scoring position and two outs, much of the offense is competent.
But a knock on the Astros is that they fail to deliver when it really counts, a part of which is measured by close and late situations, and the numbers reveal that important chunks of the batting order have floundered at those times. Here are the Astros’ performances for the season in all three categories:
Scoring Position Player AB Avg OBP Slg -------------------------------- Berkman 75 .360 .524 .613 Lane 20 .350 .458 .600 Chavez 15 .333 .333 .400 Ensberg 71 .310 .373 .394 Lamb 36 .306 .381 .444 Kent 92 .293 .324 .467 Bagwell 77 .286 .447 .571 Palmeiro 14 .286 .444 .571 Biggio 63 .270 .352 .397 Everett 51 .255 .273 .333 Ausmus 64 .188 .308 .188 Vizcaino 32 .156 .250 .156 -------------------------------- Astros 712 .272 .368 .414 Opponents 687 .234 .335 .352 Scoring Position, Two Outs Player AB Avg OBP Slg -------------------------------- Lane 7 .429 .500 1.143 Berkman 35 .343 .489 .657 Chavez 6 .333 .333 .333 Kent 39 .308 .413 .538 Palmeiro 10 .300 .500 .700 Lamb 20 .300 .300 .550 Biggio 39 .282 .349 .385 Ensberg 32 .281 .343 .375 Ausmus 28 .250 .400 .250 Bagwell 21 .238 .500 .619 Everett 19 .105 .150 .211 Vizcaino 18 .000 .182 .000 -------------------------------- Astros 334 .263 .376 .428 Opponents 317 .177 .293 .293 Close and Late Player AB Avg OBP Slg -------------------------------- Berkman 40 .375 .458 .600 Ensberg 30 .367 .375 .500 Lamb 20 .300 .440 .350 Chavez 7 .286 .375 .286 Vizcaino 32 .281 .324 .313 Lane 11 .273 .273 .727 Everett 41 .244 .256 .244 Kent 33 .212 .317 .373 Bagwell 40 .200 .319 .225 Ausmus 33 .182 .200 .182 Palmeiro 12 .167 .286 .167 Biggio 46 .174 .269 .348 -------------------------------- Astros 391 .258 .324 .379 Opponents 400 .235 .303 .400
Only Berkman and Ensberg really stand out in close and late situations, with honorable mentions to Vizcaino, Lamb, Lane and Chavez. But they cannot make up for five of the starters batting .244 and lower in such situations. (Another honorable mention goes to the Rocket, who is 3-for-7 with runners in scoring position and two outs.)
It would probably surprise most fans to see that the Astros have out-hit their opponents in these situations, since it sometimes seems like the Astros rarely get a hit when they need it and opposing clubs always do. Of course, when your team ends up in the loss column more often than not, as it has since mid-May, this misperception is probably natural.
Big margin for victory
In that fateful May 14 column, I noted that the Astros had, “lost by one or two runs four times apiece; three runs twice; and four, five and six runs once each. They’ve won by one run three times; two runs four times; three runs three times; and four or more runs 11 times. In other words, the majority of their wins haven’t been particularly close — four or more runs — and the majority of their losses have been very close — one or two runs.”
How has that changed during the slide? Since May 11, the Astros have split their one-run games, 7-7. In games decided by fewer than four runs, their record is 12-18. And in games decided by four or more runs, their record is 7-9. So the Astros are still a better team in blowouts than they are in close games. But the fact remains that they are losing more than winning regardless of how close the game, something in critical need of reversal.
Win by the bat, die by the bat
Whatever attention the Astros need to pay to their bullpen, fielding or even their management, unless the intermittent slumps by large parts of the batting order cease, the team is going nowhere. Nobody expects the pitching staff to be able to throw a shutout every night, and these days, even if the pitchers allow only two or three runs, the offense frequently has trouble capitalizing on that.
While the Astros might try to inject some more fresh blood into the offense, if the old blood is simply chumming the water for opposing pitchers, it will do little good. The resumes of the current personnel are those of hitters who have demonstrated the ability to score as a team more than 3.7 runs per game.
Swapping Pete Munro and Tim Redding, firing the manager, the hitting instructor, or both, getting middle relief help or an experienced closer, shuffling the line-up, shoring up the defense, even adding Beltran, none of this is going to matter as much as the guys who are already there — especially Biggio, Bagwell, Berkman, Ensberg and Kent — wherever they are in the batting order, stepping up and taking care of business.
Frustrating as it may be just to wait and see whether they will rediscover their collective stroke, only the hitters themselves are going to determine whether the Astros make the playoffs this year.