A brief losing streak notwithstanding, the Astros are playing precisely the kind of baseball hoped for by fans when the club upgraded its rotation to include Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. In fact, in losing two of three to the reigning world champions, the Astros played a type of game to which they are well suited — it just so happened that the speedy, defensively airtight Marlins were even better suited to it.
Between them, the six starters held opponents scoreless in 34 of 41-1/3 innings pitched, with all three games being more or less stand-offs until the seventh inning or later. And while the Marlins, with Brad Penny, Dontrelle Willis and Carl Pavano taking the mound, represented perhaps their stiffest competition this season, the Astros have put forth this kind of performance, staying in the lion’s share of games, through much of their first 34 decisions.
The Astros are prone to keeping it close, except when they blow out their opponents. Consider this: in their 13 losses, the Astros have been outscored by just 2.5 runs per game. But in their 21 wins, they?ve beaten their opponents by 4.3 runs per game.
They’ve lost by one or two runs four times apiece; three runs twice; and four, five and six runs once each. They’ve won by one run three times; two runs four times; three runs three times; and four or more runs 11 times. In other words, the majority of their wins haven’t been particularly close — four or more runs — and the majority of their losses have been very close — one or two runs.
Overall, the Astros have been ahead of or within two runs of their opponents in 29 of their 34 games and ahead of or within three runs of their opponents in 31 of their 34 games. This team has been almost impossible for other clubs to bury.
This bodes well for their long-term success. After all, as fans witnessed in the series with Florida, close games can be decided by little things often at the limits of a team’s control or abilities: an amazing catch in the gap between center and right field, a pitcher’s snare in self-defense on a shot up the middle, a blooper that lands fair behind third base, confusion between force outs and tag outs with the bases loaded.
Some of those factors are structural — younger, faster outfielders, great composure on the mound with runners on base — but for virtually every team, in general, those kinds of events are sometimes going to go your way, sometimes against you, no matter what kind of roster you build. A winning team brushes it off and focuses on getting the job done tomorrow. And that’s what the Astros have been doing, even when poor umpiring was the culprit recently in Atlanta.
But when a team pounds its opponents, that’s less a result of the way the ball bounces (or rolls) and more the result of dominance. Sure, a freak play can open the floodgates to a big inning, but by and large you don’t whack your opponents by four or more runs in a third of your games because of those kinds of occurrences.
The 2004 Astros should be a strong enough team to demonstrate the truism that close games are less a measure of a team’s abilities than blowouts are. As the season unfolds, and if the Astros continue to prosper, it should not be surprising if most of the games they lose are tight — their pitching staff should ensure that — but that many of their wins will be by a wide margin — the offense will help out in that regard.
If they remain as good as they’re playing now, it will be a rare occasion when they get overwhelmed. It’ll still happen, since in baseball any team can crush another in a given night. But overall, this club should not only come out on top in the majority of games it plays, but should win the vast majority of the blowouts in which it participates.
Movin’ On Up
Craig Biggio probably isn’t going to collect 200 hits, 52 doubles and 33 home runs this season. He isn’t likely to score 119 and drive in 105 runs, either. He’s currently on pace to reach those numbers, but then he’s played extremely well the first part of the season, better than it’s realistic to expect him to perform for a full schedule.
That said, it’s not unrealistic for Biggio to match or exceed last year’s 102 runs, 166 hits and 44 doubles. That would land him at 1,605 runs, 2,627 hits and 561 doubles for his career going into the 2005 season. But you don’t hear a lot of chatter from Hall of Fame voters about things like runs and doubles, and closing in on 3,000 hits is not the same thing as reaching that milestone.
Nonetheless, those 1,605 runs would rank him 39th all-time — and behind just two eligible players who are not in the Hall of Fame. (Those two spent the primes of their careers during the McKinley administration, so Coach Raup is probably one of the few people still living who actually saw them play.) Biggio would then spend 2005 climbing up the list past names like Brock, Kaline, Murray, Yount, Ripken, Morgan, Winfield and Mantle.
And 561 doubles would place Biggio 17th all-time. There would be no eligible non-Hall of Famers ahead of him on that list. (This turn of events will actually occur with his next two doubles, when he surpasses Al Oliver with 530 and enters airspace exclusively occupied by Hall of Famers and players not eligible.)
Even 2,627 hits, while just 66th all-time, would leave only eight eligible non-Hall of Famers ahead of Biggio. The modern players among those eight — Dave Parker, Bill Buckner, Rusty Staub, Vada Pinson, Andre Dawson and Oliver, all fine performers — would probably all be passed by Biggio if he played a full season in 2005.
Ryne Sandberg’s inexplicable denial in a couple of elections has been reported as bad news for Biggio (and Roberto Alomar, for that matter). While Sandberg might have been a better player at his peak — his 40-home run, 1984 MVP season stands out — and even this is debatable, Biggio already beats him in longevity, which also matters.
Sandberg is having trouble getting into Cooperstown because of the brevity of his career, not because of the quality of his play. Sandberg will almost certainly get in eventually, and in any event, Biggio will have played at a comparable level over a longer period. Simply put, the problem with the voters plaguing Ryno is not likely to plague Bidge.
Biggio will probably need the 2005 season to augment his case, but after that, the only thing that’s going to significantly alter his argument is sticking around for 3,000 hits, something that might not be feasible or even necessary for his induction.
If certain things break right for the Astros this season, Biggio might end up with something that Sandberg had a chance for in 1984 but never got, in which event even 2005 might not be needed for Biggio to get his ticket punched.