December 9, 2003
Editor’s note – This is the sixth in a series of installments of the annual Minor Opinions Prospect Report, an OWA exclusive.
Paul Estrada
DOB: 9/10/82. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 215. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: Signed as non-drafted free agent (7/2/99) from Ciudad Bolivar, Venezuela.
Spring Training Comments:
Described as a physical clone of Freddy Garcia, unfortunately similar performance has been lacking…this kid is all about projection…he’ll be able to throw the ball through a wall soon, but at some point he’s going to have to learn the fine art of pitching as simply chucking the ball just doesn’t cut it.
Update:
Still possessing an abundance of raw potential, Estrada flashes signs of success but his inconsistency at being able to control his pitches (still allowing a BB per IP) is likely going to keep him in short-season ball for another year. Only 21 years old for most of the 2004 season, should he be able to cut down on the free passes it could well be time for Paul to emerge as someone to really watch for the future.
Dan Freeman
DOB: 8/3/82. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 215. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: 17th-round pick in 2002 draft out of Texarkana Community College.
Spring Training Comments:
N/A.
Update:
A sinker/slider pitcher who, like fellow Louisianan Jared Gothreaux, has been a bit of a surprise coming out of the 2002 draft. Freeman’s been described as having a “closer’s mentality” which comes in handy when you happen to be a closer. His excellent season for Lexington this year got him selected to the mid-season SAL All-Star squad. The Jonesboro native was bothered by some shoulder problems that limited him to just four appearances over the season’s final month.
Assuming he’s completely healthy, Freeman should be the closer on next season’s Avalanche squad.
Jared Gothreaux
DOB: 1/27/80. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 200. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: 16th-round pick in 2002 draft out of McNeese State.
Spring Training Comments:
A starter in college, Gothreaux thrived in his first exposure to the bullpen at Tri-City and without question had the best debut of any 2002 Astro draftee…quite often has been compared physically and in his approach to pitching with Jeff Brantley…likely to make the jump from Tri-City to Lexington in 2003.
Update:
Gothreaux remains at the top (and the surprise) of the 2002 draft class as his most recent season at Salem was even more impressive than his pro debut last year at Tri-City. He handled the 2-level bump to high-A ball extremely well and his 13 wins ended up leading the Carolina League while his 2.82 ERA was 3rd-best in the circuit. At year’s end, the Cajun righty was named the 18th-best prospect in the Carolina League. This was in a league absolutely stuffed with top-level pitching prospects such as Zack Greinke, John VanBenschoten, Kris Honel, Macay McBride, Dan Meyer, Bryan Bullington, Ian Oquendo, Ryan Wing, John Maine, Rommie Lewis, Phil Dumatrait and Ty Howington.
Jared started out the year in the bullpen but was shifted into the rotation after season-ending injuries to starters Rory Shortell, Andres Astacio and Tony Pluta. The return to starting pitching (as noted above, Gothreaux was a starter at McNeese State) could be a pivotal event in his career. The Lake Charles native had been working on a changeup to complement his low-90’s fastball and terrific slider. Becoming a starter forced Gothreaux to work even more on the off-speed pitch and his refinement of it over the course of the year was a major reason for his success in ’03.
Jared shows superb command of all three of his pitches. Though his BB/9 rate of 1.60 was awfully darn good, there’s another stat that impressed us even more: only 4 deep flies allowed all year long in 146 innings. Given the fact that Jared is around the plate so much, that’s just phenomenal. Gothreaux’s continuous improvement as the season went along bodes well for ’04: his ERA dropped to 2.66 over his last 14 starts. He had only one bad start during that stretch and if you throw that game out his ERA fell even further to 2.29.
The only fly in the ointment we can see as far as Gothreaux’s future is the low strikeout rate (an issue we also raised in conjunction with Ezequiel Astacio, who figures to join Gothreaux in the starting rotation next season at Round Rock). But the development of the change, his excellent command, the avoidance of longballs and the improvement he showed despite the rapid advancement are all very much in Jared’s favor. We now believe he has a chance to make it to the show as a starting pitcher after earlier projecting as a reliever.
Derick Grigsby
DOB: 6/30/82. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 200. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: 1st-round pick in 2002 draft out of Northeast Texas CC (signed too late to play in 2002).
Spring Training Comments:
Like Joey DeLeon and Chance Douglass, has faced more than his fair share of adversity at an early age…his mother passed away during his freshman year at UT and he transferred to Northeast Community College to be closer to his family home in Marshall (TX)…continued to display a power arm the next season and was selected in the first round by Houston….McLane then instituted a moratorium on signing high-round draft picks…when the strike didn’t happen, Grigsby became a millionaire…he then bought his father a Harley-Davidson motorcycle and within days of Derick reporting to the FIL, his old man crashed the motorcycle in a horrific accident…thank goodness Mr. Grigsby survived but, in all, it’s been a pretty heavy-duty roller-coaster ride for a 20-year old young man over the last 18 months or so…while paling in comparison to his family responsibility, heading back home to Texas after the motorcycle accident prevented Grigsby from getting some much-needed instruction during the FIL season…the instruction is much needed because Grigsby is very much a raw product…has a legitimate power arm despite his relatively short stature with most of his velocity being generated by a solid lower frame – a la Billy Wagner…his FB is a legitimate 94-95 MPH and he also throws a power slider at 86 MPH…the issue to resolve is control over those impressive weapons…one illustration of his wildness: during his freshman year in Austin, he plunked four Stanford Cardinal batters in one inning of relief…the Major League Scouting Bureau listed Grigsby’s comp as Ben Sheets…Derick has a ways to go in order to hone the polish of Sheets but if he can stay healthy and develop along those lines, Astro fans will be mighty pleased…best guess right now is that Grigsby will begin his pro career in Lexington.
Update:
Oh, gosh. Reports of a pretty severe loss of velocity, from the mid-to-upper 90s to high 80s or low 90s, combined with no suggestion of arm trouble scares the heck out of us. It’s not as though Grisgby was a polished gem when selected in the first round of the 2002 draft. He’s raw material and was chosen in large part due to the power in his right arm. If that has vanished, his star potential has been severely diminished.
We also have no reports of Grigsby working on different mechanics. It’s certainly possible he was doing so and this could easily contribute to a loss of velocity. The same thing happened with Scott Elarton after he was drafted in the first round. However, Elarton’s mechanical tinkering was fairly well known. There are no such reports we’ve aware of regarding Grigsby.
Derick did report to Instructional League after the season, furthering the belief that there’s probably not a physical problem with his arm. A return of the vapor heat he once threw, however, is going to be vital to his remaining a player worthy of such lofty draft status. Look for him to begin the season once again with Lexington.
Jason Hirsh
DOB: 2/20/82. Ht.: 6-8. Wt.: 250. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: 2nd-round pick in 2003 draft out of Cal Lutheran.
Spring Training Comments:
N/A.
Update:
Future major league closer, set-up man, or starter? We’ve seen all of the above predictions for Hirsh before, during and after his initial pro season at Tri-City. And what a debut it was for the player that was the Astros’ top draft pick of the 2003 draft (the #1 pick of course disappeared as a result of the Jeff Kent signing). Throw out a single bad outing on Aug. 8 when he gave up 7 earned runs, and Jason had a 0.00 ERA in his remaining 9 games for the V-Cats with just 14 hits and 6 walks allowed in 30 IP.
As you might expect from a guy with his kind of size, Jason has a nice fastball that runs up there anywhere from 92-96 mph (consistently at the lower end of the range, occasionally at the upper end). We believe he’ll gain some more mileage on that heater with proper tutoring and further maturation and development. And as you also might expect for someone who pitched at a Division III school, he’s a bit raw (though not quite as raw as management expected coming in). He needs work in particular on his secondary pitches (slider and change). But for such a big guy who throws pretty hard we have been impressed by one thing: his control. The 33:7 strikeout to walk ratio at Tri-City followed 126:22 numbers his junior season at Cal Lutheran.
And our guess for Hirsh’s future big-league role? Closer.
D. J. Houlton
DOB: 8/12/79. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 220. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: 11th-round pick in 2001 draft out of the U of Pacific.
Spring Training Comments:
If there were such a thing as a system MVP for 2002, our vote would go to DJ Houlton…did absolutely everything a pitcher can do for the Michigan Battle Cats last year…started the year as the long-man and emergency starter, was the closer for a short spell and later joined the rotation full-time…when all was said and done, he led the team in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts and was the winner in the only playoff victory for the Battle Cats…only reason that Houlton is not getting much run in national circles is that he turned 23 in August and hasn’t progressed beyond low-A ball…but he certainly has the frame, major league average stuff and control to be a successful pitcher as he climbs the ladder…in two years as a professional, Houlton has dominated to the tune of 211 strikeouts and only 38 walks over 218.2 IP with an ERA of 2.88…though he’s clearly been a success so far, may not have the kind of material to be anything more than a #4-5 starter in the majors…not that this is a shame in any way as depth in the rotation is clearly important…work out of the bullpen, though, has been outstanding…in 51.2 innings out of the pen over 19 appearances, allowed only 41 hits, 12 ER, walked only 14 and punched out 58 with an ERA of 2.09…will most likely join the Salem affiliate next year…no word, though, if he’ll reprise his swing-man role or join either the rotation or bullpen full-time…ultimately could be a very solid set-up guy.
Update:
D.J. wasn’t fazed by skipping high-A ball and handled the jump to AA with ease as he was far and away the Express’ most effective pitcher over the first half of the year. So effective in fact that Houlton was promoted to New Orleans in late June. The rapid rise from low-A to AAA may have caught up to him at that point as he struggled some in the PCL. Even so, his combined 149 strikeouts at NO and RR led all Astros’ minor leaguers (not bad for a finesse pitcher), though his control wasn’t quite as sharp as it was in prior seasons.
The Astros recently chose not to protect D.J. on the 40-man roster, thereby exposing him to next week’s Rule 5 draft. While that would certainly support the view that Houlton is not regarded as having a particularly high ceiling, we’re still slightly perplexed by the move. While we still believe the righthander has a decent chance at being a successful reliever in the bigs, what has really left us scratching our heads is why a minor league journeyman such as Nate Bland (yeah, yeah, yeah…he’s a lefty) was protected in lieu of Houlton. Bizarre.
If Houlton remains with the organization in 2004, we expect more successful results in a return trip to the Big Easy. Assuming that scenario holds true, a call-up next year to the Astros also is a strong possibility (though that may depend on what kind of success Buchholz and Qualls are having and whether the need is for a starter or reliever). Houlton remains a favorite of ours as a guy who isn’t gonna set the world on fire but can be a useful guy at the major league level. Of course, we thought the same of Henri Stanley and look what happened to him (not that he still can’t achieve that with the Padres).
Ruddy Lugo
DOB: 5/22/80. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 190. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: Originally a 3rd-round pick of the Brewers in 1999 draft. PTBNL in the 2001 trade which sent Marquis Grissom to the Dodgers in exchange for Devon White. Traded by the Dodgers in exchange for Daryle Ward (1/25/03).
Spring Training Comments:
N/A.
Update:
Julio’s little brother does have the kind of velocity in order to be a successful pitcher, but what we saw last year told us he still has a way to go. There wasn’t much consistency in his off-speed stuff and his low-90s fastball was as straight as an arrow. Plenty of opposing hitters racked up impressive stats against a fairly woeful Express staff last year but not many balls were smoked harder than some shots hit off of Lugo last year.
At 23 next season, Lugo needs to start showing some signs of progress and production to remain in the minds of the Astro brass or he may quickly find himself on the list of “organizational fodder”.
Ronnie Martinez (aka Ronnie Ventura)
DOB: 7/6/83. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 180. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: Signed as non-drafted free agent (6/1/01) from Cotui, Dominican Republic.
Spring Training Comments:
Did not allow a single HR all season in utterly dominating the Dominican Summer League in 2002…another in the ever-expanding list of short right-handers who can get the ball up to the plate in the 90s…obviously production in the DSL bodes well but it remains very early in Martinez’s development to get too high on him…but he was identified over a year ago by someone who should know as a pitcher to watch and his first full season of play as a professional earned him a trip to the Florida for the Instructional League, so one can rightfully surmise Ronnie is someone the Astros view as very promising…likely to get a visa this year and will most probably join the squad at Tri-City.
Update:
OK, so perhaps the jump from the DSL wasn’t quite as high as forecast but Martinez’s US debut with Martinsville was unquestionably a successful one and compares favorably with the seasons of fellow righties Chance Douglass and Mitch Talbot with the M’stros. The diminutive Martinez ended up leading the team in innings pitched (64, 5th in the league) and wins (6, tied for 4th in league). Ronnie isn’t going to blow anyone away with a mid-90s fastball but he does have superlative control and good mound presence, which leads us to believe for the forseeable future he will remain a starter.
His assignment next season should be instructive in how quickly the Astros think Martinez may move up the ladder. Between holdovers from last season and those bumped up from very solid staff in Tri-City, any Martinsville alum from 2003 who gets bumped to Lexington is someone to be tabbed a mover.
We don’t know for sure if this applies to Martinez but it would not surprise us.
Ryan McKeller
DOB: 7/8/83. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 210. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: 45th-round pick in 2002 draft out of New Mexico Junior College (signed prior to 2003 draft as DFE).
Spring Training Comments:
N/A.
Update:
McKeller was first drafted by the Astros in 2001 in the 38th round out of HS. He then played at McLennan Junior College as a freshman before transferring to play his sophomore season at New Mexico Junior College (his cousin and fellow pitcher, Patrick, was also on the NMJC roster). Ryan struggled to throw strikes at both schools. But the Astros, who again drafted McKeller after his freshman season at McLennan, still saw promise and signed the Pflugerville native as a DFE just prior to the 2003 draft.
An adjustment to his throwing motion allowed Ryan to improve his control during his pro debut for Martinsville, though a lot further progress is required in that department (that’s what he was working on in FIL). McKeller was really a project at the time he was signed and the relative success he had with the M’stros was definitely surprising. A mid-90’s fastball, combined with a good curve and changeup, probably means the starting rotation is in his future but only if his command continues to improve.
Jamie Merchant
DOB: 3/19/81. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 260. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: 16th-round pick in 2003 draft out of the U of Vermont.
Spring Training Comments:
N/A.
Update:
The Astros drafted the rather hefty righty this year after his senior year at the U of Vermont where he won the America East Conference Pitcher of the Year award this past season after going 7-2 with a 1.56 ERA (ranking 7th in Division I) in 75 innings with a .203 BA against and superb 81:14 strikeout to walk ratio. Merchant also did an excellent job avoiding the longball, yielding just a single dinger. On an interesting sidenote, fellow draftee Mike Collar (U of Maine) joined Merchant this year as the two pitchers selected as first-team All Conference in the America East. In a further sidenote, the same scout who recommended the Astros draft Wade Miller and Tim Redding also recommended the selections of both Merchant and Collar.
Merchant’s successful senior season carried over to the pros, as NY-Penn League hitters had a lot of difficulty hitting the Colchester, VT native. That .185 BA against was again combined with a talent for keeping balls in the park as just one batter went deep. Throw out 2 bad outings where Jamie was uncharacteristically bothered with some control problems, and his ERA drops to 2.25 in 48 IP with a 51:14 K/W ratio.
Merchant, who combines a decent fastball with a top-notch curveball, may like fellow north-easterner Collar face a problem trying to get innings next year. As noted previously, the Lexington pitching staff will be absolutely loaded with pitching talent in 2004 and if Merchant is assigned to the Legends he may have to pitch exclusively out of the bullpen. We wouldn’t totally rule out the possibility of seeing him skipped up to Salem where slipping into the starting rotation might not be quite so difficult.
Fernando Nieve
DOB: 7/15/82. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 195. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: Signed as non-drafted free agent (5/11/99) from San Felipe, Venezuela.
Spring Training Comments:
This is getting redundant: short right-hander who throws 100% natural gas (Astros patent pending)…yep, another flame throwing kid and this one has one of the very highest readings on the gun…has been clocked in the 97-98 MPH range but is most effective when he’s throwing around 94…problem is, we’ve yet to hear anyone say much about a workable off-speed pitch…reports say this is primarily what Nieve was working on in Florida at IL, along with standard mechanics training…spent a second season at Martinsville in 2002 and there was solid improvement…it’s not that he had a poor 2001 season but in the second go-round did a much better job of throwing strikes in good spots and allowing his fielders to make plays instead of trying to strike everyone out…in doing so, he allowed only 2 more earned runs in nearly double the number of innings pitched…in two stints with Martinsville, has now thrown 105.2 IP, allowed 73 hits, walked 48 and struck out 109 with an ERA of 2.90…will play at 20 years old for most of the 2003 season and should get a shot at a rotation spot in Lexington.
Update:
12-3 W-L, 105.2 IP, 76 H, 39 BB, 111 K, 2.47 ERA. These are the totals Fernando Nieve has posted in his last 19 starts between Lexington and Magallanes of the VZ Winter League. It seems as though the light has turned on for Nieve and the Astros have rewarded the 21-year old with a spot on the 40-man roster.
Still an unpolished thrower at the end of the 2002 season, the quality of his curve and change improved noticeably as the 2003 season wore on and reports, as well as performance, from the VWL indicate his advancement as a legitimate pitcher continues. His curve has solid major league action and his continued refinement of the curve and a solid 92-94 MPH fastball give him the potential of being a #2 or #3 starter down the line.
Some will remember the hype given to Jimmy Barrett after a successful stint in low-A ball during 2002 and the fall he suffered the next season. Legitimate concern for hyping Nieve at this point. However, we believe there’s reason to suspect this is not as likely to happen with Nieve. Nieve has consistently done a better job of missing bats than has Barrett during their careers. Additionally, Fernando did not need the benefit of a second season in low-A ball to figure out the league before he began to dominate.
Nieve is arguably the top pitcher to watch in the A-ball levels going into the 2004 season. Expect him to head a Salem rotation that looks to be very powerful next year.
Felipe Paulino (del Guidice)
DOB: 10/5/83. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 180. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: Signed as non-drafted free agent (7/2/01) from Los Teques, Miranda, Venezuela.
Spring Training Comments:
N/A.
Update:
So what’s the deal promoting a kid who has all of 17 rather unimpressive IP from the VSL to Martinsville in the middle of the 2003 season? A fastball that has been clocked as high as 101 MPH and comfortably sits at 97-98 will do the trick.
Yes, for those of you not familiar with the promotion of Paulino, you read right. The kid hits triple digits. He also hits batters (8 in 25.2 IP with M’ville), backstops, the dirt and other associated baseball stadium targets excepting the catcher’s mitt on a semi-regular basis. The kid is an embodiment of the cliched Nuke LaLoosh character, including all the potential should he be able to harness his lightning bolt of an arm.
Extremely few pitchers at any level can touch the kind of velocity Paulino reached with ease prior to turning 20 years of age. But don’t expect the kind of rapid advancement seen last year in the coming season. Paulino is likely to return to short-season ball in 2004.
Paulino’s rise will be fun to watch and we advise hitters not to dig in too deeply next season.
Jailen Peguero
DOB: 1/4/81. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 195. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: Signed as non-drafted free agent (5/18/00) from Azua, Dominican Republic.
Spring Training Comments:
N/A.
Update:
Never given much publicity because he does not possess overwhelming stuff, Peguero has quietly been an efficient if unspectacular arm in the Astro system. Who could have foreseen what would happen in 2003, though? Look past the 5-13 record. Peguero jumped from 50 IP with Tri-City in ‘02 to making 21 starts with Lexington in ‘03 and allowing a very tidy .210 batting average against. That’s pretty darned remarkable.
Will he be able to maintain such progress in the Salem rotation next year? We have doubts. There are a gobjillion better young arms in the system. But there is sound reason to believe Peguero can be a very useful swing-man and guys who can serve in such a role have value in an organization.
Tony Pluta
DOB: 10/28/82. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 190. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: 3rd-round pick in 2000 draft out of Las Vegas HS (Las Vegas, NV).
Spring Training Comments:
After an incredibly promising debut with Lexington as an 18-year old, much good was foretold for Pluta in what was expected to be a breakout second campaign in low-A ball…however, an aversion to cold weather combined with the sub-freezing April temperatures in Michigan laid waste to the start of the year and it took months for Tony to start getting untracked…even so, he never really regained the form of 2001 much less improve on that performance…yes, he did have a nice stretch of the season where over 10 games he went 8-0 with two no-decisions and an ERA in the mid-3s…compare that to his season ending ERA, though, and it will tell you just how disappointing his season was in the other 18 starts he made…possesses an absolute rocket for an arm and one that rivals any in the system…key factor to watch in his development is his walk totals…in 2001, Pluta tossed 132.1 innings and walked 86, leading the Sally League. In 2002, Pluta worked 143 innings and walked 83, second most in the Midwest League. That’s not what anyone would call progress…until he can harness his natural ability, he’s likely going to continue to struggle…keep in mind, though, that Pluta was still a teenager last year and will play all of 2003 as a 20-year old…there’s still plenty of time to work with this kind of special arm and Jimmy Barrett’s experience may be something of a comp for Pluta…like Jimmy showed last year, if Tony is able to find consistency he could well find himself rocketing upward in the club’s plans for the future…will be some debate within the organization about where Pluta will be assigned this season and it seems most prudent to start him at Lexington for a third year of low-A ball…Salem is a possibility, though, if he has a nice Spring Training performance…if he dominates that level, he could then be moved up to Round Rock…if not and the inconsistency of 2002 repeats itself, worry begins to creep in…the guess here, though, is that Pluta is going to have a very fine season and his name is going to be prominently mentioned by most national publications in 2003.
Update:
Pluta was pitching crappy for a second straight season when he blew out his elbow and subsequently underwent Tommy John surgery. He’ll return as some point in 2004 (probably assigned again to Salem, though he may start off rehabbing at a lower level), but ineffectiveness and the injury have dimmed his star considerably. Tony is still just 21 years old so we remain reluctant to kick him off Prospect Island but he’s definitely moved over into the long-shot category at this time.
Next week: RHPs (Part 3 of 3)