November 17, 2003
Editor’s note – This is the third in a series of installments of the annual Minor Opinions Prospect Report, an OWA exclusive.
Anthony Acevedo
DOB: 5/5/78. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 200. Bats: L. Throws: L. Acquired: 13th-round pick in 2000 draft out of Fresno State.
Spring Training Comments:
Repeated low-A ball in 2002…like Burke and Whiteman, a casualty of the Astro system not having a high-A team for the second consecutive year…does not have a standout tool but is a solid player across the board…a very mature and well-grounded person off the field who is notably liked and respected by his teammates…work on balance and patience at the plate in 2002 paid off in a reduction of his strikeout totals from 130 to 89…despite his imposing frame isn’t really a classic power hitter…more of a line drive guy with the ability to hit the ball in the gaps who tries to pattern his game after the likes of Tony Gwynn…his manager at Lexington last year, JJ Cannon, was a firm believer that Acevedo will play in the major leagues at some point…but given that he’ll turn 25 early this season and still has not played high-A ball to this point, much less mastered the level, it seems a bit early to make that projection…most likely Acevedo will join the new Salem affiliate in 2003…if he rips up the Carolina League he could be someone who vaults up the organizational ladder…if not, his prospects for the future are somewhat muddy.
Update:
Unlike numerous other Astros’ prospects the last few seasons, Acevedo in 2003 successfully managed the 2-level jump to AA on his first try. Actually his season would have looked even better had his second half (.249/.330/.361) been anywhere as good as his first half (.319/.398/.465).
Anthony would appear destined for a full season at New Orleans in 2004. Despite successfully navigating the Texas League this past year, we’d like to see more from the guy…whether or not he’s capable of hitting more of the deep flies, he’s gotta become an RBI machine. He wasn’t that with the Express this year, though it should be pointed out that the supporting cast (aside from Burke and Whiteman) was pretty poor and RR ended up last in the league in scoring.
You’re not gonna see Acevedo roaming CF and RF. He’s a LF, period. And perhaps not even that as the rumor continued to circulate this past season that Anthony was destined for the first base bag. While that still might happen down the road, it’s interesting to us that the Astros chose not to make the move during a season in which there was ample opportunity to do. There was a succession of roster-filler types manning 1B at RR in 2003 (Eric Cole, Jacques Landry, Mike Coolbaugh…to name just a few) and the organization could have stuck Acevedo there with minimal disruption. The fact they didn’t probably was less a vote on his defensive prowess in the outfield and had more to do with simply recognizing that Acevedo doesn’t quite fit the profile of a big-bopping 1B.
Freddy Acevedo
DOB: 8/23/81. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 200. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: Signed as non-drafted free agent (1/20/99) from La Romana, Dominican Republic.
Spring Training Comments:
More physically talented than Anthony but far more raw as a player…above average arm and would properly be characterized as a classic right fielder…also possesses major league bat speed with the ability to produce solid power…but his inability to make consistent contract has limited his progression at this point to a pair of stints with rookie level Martinsville…second tour of duty in the Appy League was a far greater success…went from being completely overmatched in 2001 to leading the M’stros in HRs, extra-base hits and RBI in 2002…problem is that he still strikes out about once every three ABs and is a free-swinger who seems incapable at this point of controlling the strike zone…if Acevedo is able to discern the difference between a pitch to hit and a pitch to take in the future, he has the physical ability to be a helluva ballplayer…inclusion on the 2002 Florida Instructional League roster was an indication of the regard the organization has for his tools…best guess is that Acevedo will join the Lexington club for the start of the 2003 season…if he continues to strikeout at such a high rate during spring training, though, it’s possible he could return for another year in short-season ball with Tri-City…will play most of the 2003 season as a 21-year old, so there’s still plenty of time for him to turn tools into skills.
Update:
Freddy made the anticipated jump to low-A Lexington in 2003 but wasn’t able to curb his free-swinging ways, producing nearly identical BB/K and K/AB ratios as last year in twice the number of at bats. Those results are not exactly inspiring. But there is no denying he has the physical talent to be a dominating performer if, as stated last off-season, he learns even the basics of discernment between ball and strike.
Witness the following stretches of play last year: from 7/31-8/18 (17 games) he hit .338/.366/.721 with 6 doubles, 1 triple and 6 home runs. At that point, despite still striking out about once a game, one begins to think he’s turned a corner and has this A-ball thing down pat. Then in the final 12 games of the season he just wilted, going .188/.250/.292 with 2 doubles and 1 homer. It gets worse. Acevedo also managed to whiff a whopping *24* times in those last 12 games.
Perhaps one can peer through rose-colored glasses and say Acevedo hadn’t played anywhere near 110 games in a season prior to last year so a late-season collapse is to be expected. I’m not going to be so pollyanna-ish in this regard. Until Acevedo shows a real understanding of what he’s doing at the plate and does it consistently, he’s likely to continually go through stretches where he tantalizes prospect-watchers but ultimately fails to live up to his promise.
Invited for a second year in a row to Instrux (which says something about his talent), our guess is that Freddy returns for another year at Lexington as a bump up in level seems a bit of a stretch given his lack of production. If, however, he shines early on in 2004 he could very well earn a quick trip up the organizational ladder.
Ervin Alcantara
DOB: 10/3/80. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 180. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: Signed as non-drafted free agent (8/6/01) from San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic.
Spring Training Comments:
N/A.
Update:
Frikkin’ DAS. How nice would it have been to have a 19-year old OF who produced a .407 OBP and .344 batting average in his first exposure to pro ball in the US, even if it was in Rookie ball? Sounds pretty sweet to me. Meet Ervin Alcantara, the new record-holder among Astro non-pitchers for most years aged between seasons (almost 3).
What a shame. Alcantara was, in fact, 22 years old in rookie ball. And were it not for such wonderful production, his age alone would disqualify him from even prospect lists as lengthy as the ones done for Minor Opinions. In fact, due to the age issue, we’d certainly not be surprised if the organization dumped Alcantara outright.
If, however, one looks only at production and skills Alcantara paints an interesting picture. He’s a solid line-drive hitter with the ability to play all 3 OF positions, making him versatile and, therefore, more valuable to the organization. Add to that the fact Houston has not shown an aversion to having 23 and 24-year olds in low-A ball in the past. Given this, we suspect Alcantara will get a chance to earn his way onto the Lexington club in the spring. 
Josh Anderson
DOB: 8/10/82. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 195. Bats: L. Throws: R. Acquired: 4th-round pick in 2003 draft out of Eastern Kentucky.
Spring Training Comments:
N/A.
Update:
Anderson has already been crowned a five tool player by one national baseball publication. Hmm…wasn’t one of those tools supposed to be “hit with power”? We don’t see him doing much in the power department as a pro. And in fact we’d be concerned about his overall development if he were to start swinging for the fences because what he definitely does project as is a leadoff hitter with some serious speed.
The EKU star hit .447 his junior season with a .509 OBP while leading NCAA Division I in stolen bases with 57 in 53 games. He also walked 23 times versus just 15 strikeouts. Very nice numbers if you’re looking for a top of the order type of guy, even if they were inflated as a result of playing in the weak Ohio Valley Conference. Anderson did manage to finish second in the league in the stolen base category in his pro debut with 26 (in 35 tries). But his strikeout totals soared while his walk and OBP totals dropped. So we’ll be looking closely to see if the NY-Penn League All-Star makes a lot better contact and improves his pitch selection next year at Lexington.
Josh is a very good defensive CF (yes, there actually is one or two of those in the system), although we’ve seen conflicting reports on his arm strength (another one of the five “tools” he supposedly possesses). Some say he’s got a strong arm, others just an average one.
If you look past the “five tools” nonsense, Anderson has a chance to develop into that highly-coveted good defensive CF/leadoff hitter combination. He joined the crew at Instructional League this Fall. Hopefully he learned a few things Chris Burke took with him from his experience in Florida last year.
Francisco Caraballo
DOB: 10/21/83. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 200. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: Signed as non-drafted free agent (2/15/01) from Anaco, Venezuela.
Spring Training Comments:
N/A.
Update:
Caraballo had an extremely successful season in 2002 at the mere age of 18 down in Venezuela and his stateside debut this year at Martinsville also went well. But the rest of the news about him is not so good. Reports are that he has a hole in his swing that is likely to be exploited as he tries to climb the ladder. And if you look closer at those numbers, you’ll see his ability to control the strike zone is pretty dismal. And though he spent the first month and a half of the season with the M-Astros patrolling CF, he unfortunately projects as a corner outfielder. Thus, he’s really gonna have to light it up in the power department to generate much buzz from a prospect standpoint. Francisco will probably spend another year in short-season ball, this time with Tri-City.
Charlton Jimerson
DOB: 9/22/79. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 220. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: 5th-round pick in 2001 draft out of U of Miami.
Spring Training Comments:
Collected 172 total bases in the 2002 season but then turned around and struck out 168 times…very few full-time players have performed the horrific feat of having more Ks than total bases in a season…remains, by far, the finest defensive outfielder in the Astros’ system and probably the best overall athlete, too…has yet to turn those physical tools into useful baseball skills…did go to 2002 FIL for additional instruction but doubtful if he can turn it around quickly enough (he turned 23 in September) to have a chance at a very good career in MLB…not so old that he should be forgotten but it will be very telling as to his future where Jimerson is assigned for next season…if he repeats low-A at 23, he’d better tear it up…should he be sent to high-A, he can struggle a bit and still be given some slack as he’s at least making progress up the ladder…a smart guy and understands the value of hard work given his difficult upbringing and the example his sister set by raising her little brother…all we can hope for is that with additional experience and instruction he can become the monster player his physical presence leads scouts to drool over…if this guy ever learns to make consistent contact and control the strike zone (a stretch at this point), he can be the kind of player Cesar Cedeno was in his prime…he’s that multi-talented.
Update:
We got similar reports from two scouting friends who saw Charlton Jimerson play for Salem in the first half of the season. Both told us he was still a “guess” hitter who could not keep his hands back if they were Super Glued to his ribs. One could then be crass and say Charlton should have learned his lesson after having one of said hands broken by a pitch about two weeks into the season. But, quite frankly, numbers bear out the scouts claims. Through July, he had not hit any higher than .250 in any one month and pretty much looked overwhelmed by high-A pitching.
Hello, August! Over the last 30 games of the season, Jimerson hit .315/.333/.613 with 7 2B, 8 HR (of the 12 he hit to lead the team), 20 R and 28 RBI. He finished the season winning Carolina League Player of the Week and reports are that he continued his progress by ripping up Instructional League.
That said, it’s somewhat disturbing that Jimerson still refuses to take a walk and strikes out at a prodigious rate, even doing so in the great August hitting tear. While posting those fabulous BA and SLG totals, Jimerson’s OBP was limited by only working 4 walks and he struck out 27 times in 111 at bats. In our opinion this will continue to be his Achilles heel.
Despite preponderance of evidence and history, in Michael’s opinion this is Jimerson’s year to shine. If he’s able to stay healthy don’t expect a Lane-esque breakout season at Round Rock. But something on the order of a solid mid-to-high 800s OPS and 30+ SBs with outstanding defense in center field is what is expected.
Jason Lane
DOB: 12/22/76. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 215. Bats: R. Throws: L. Acquired: 6th-round pick in 1999 draft out of USC.
Spring Training Comments:
Faced every hurdle the minor leagues and the Astros’ system has placed in front of him and been successful at every turn…deserves proper credit and praise for having done so…split time between first base and the outfield in 2000…spent the majority of the season in left field in 2001…in 2002 he took on the chore of manning one of the most difficult outfield positions in all of baseball, covering the vast center field expanses of Zephyr Field in New Orleans, and by most accounts he did a fairly decent job…like Berkman in Houston, Lane won’t win raves or anything for his play in center but the guy has made himself into a serviceable defensive outfielder capable of playing anywhere the manager throws his glove…what has never been much of a question is Lane’s power with the bat…a legitimate power source capable of providing the kind of offense one expects from a corner outfielder…after his monster season in Round Rock during 2001, went to New Orleans and experienced something of the “Ginter effect” – that is getting fed a steady diet of junkballs instead of the fastballs he saw at AA and struggling to produce as expected…despite the struggles versus expectation, Lane managed to lead the Zephyrs in most offensive (non-rate) categories…little doubt that his power numbers would have been much higher were the left-center power alley in New Orleans not in the vicinity of 415 feet…even so, he earned a late-season call up to Houston and, voila, he morphed into the offensive force of 2002 in an impressive showing with the Astros…as to whether he’s going to receive a call-up to Houston in the near future, that remains very cloudy…really has nothing much more to prove as far as his ability to play major league baseball and he is deserving of an opportunity to do so…but with the ridiculous number of outfielders currently on the 25-man roster, Lane looks to be the kid on the wrong side of the chain link fence begging for a chance to get on the field…at 26, something needs to happen soon as far as getting a chance at the major league level so as to establish himself and fashion a decent career on the big stage…with a couple of months to go before spring training, Gerry the Hun could still ship off an OF or two and injury is always a possibility, so having the depth a guy like Lane provides is a nice luxury…a very nice luxury indeed.
Update:
Okay, now we all know there is such a thing as a “sports hernia”. And if you’re still a little vague on the nature of the malady, check out this article. Since surgery doesn’t always correct the problem, we’ll have to cross our fingers that Lane and his troublesome groin are healthy in 2004. Lane’s injury first occurred in late April and the conservative approach (i.e., primarily resting it to let it heal up) was chosen for treatment, but it kept re-occurring within short periods of time after returning to the lineup. Only after a second extended spell on the DL did Jason finally proclaim himself pain-free. His numbers at New Orleans post-return seemed to bear that out: .333/.374/.452 in 23 games from 7/26 to 8/18. As did the stats he put up once he reached Houston. But apparently there was enough of a concern about further re-occurrences that the Trojan-ex elected to go the surgical route and he went under the knife on Oct. 9, to be followed by six weeks of rest before beginning rehab exercises.
As far as what 2004 holds on the field, we won’t even attempt to add to the speculation as to what role Lane will play with the Astros. If Richard Hidalgo and his $12 mil (or some portion thereof) are sent elsewhere, suffice to say we see very little (if any) offensive drop-off with Jason in the lineup. He’s shown himself to be a more patient hitter than Hidalgo and more capable of using all fields at the plate. A completely healthy Lane should generate a minimum of 80 RBIs if he plays full-time. In fact, you wouldn’t have to twist our arm much to predict a 100-RBI season (and a possible ROY award to go with it) but that probably would depend more on the consistency of the rest of the offense than anything within Jason’s control.
Lane clearly isn’t the same kind of defensive player as Hidalgo. But at $11.6 million a year cheaper, a little D can probably be sacrificed to aid other areas of the team.
Yamber Rodriguez
DOB: 2/3/85. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 180. Bats: R. Throws: R. Acquired: Signed as non-drafted free agent (5/21/02) from Maracay, Venezuela.
Spring Training Comments:
N/A.
Update:
Whoa. Look out, folks. We may have a live one here.
As an 18-year old in his first full season of play, the increase in Rodriguez’s secondary numbers are fairly remarkable. His OBP jumped 88 points and his SLG increased 136 points. He finished first in all of the VZ Summer League in walks (by a wide margin) while finishing second in homers, fourth in both OBP and stolen bases, sixth in RBI, eleventh in runs scored and twelfth in slugging.
We are told Rodriguez may very well have true 5-tool ability in the future. The tools are present and very early in his career he’s shown an advanced ability to control the strike zone. Refining his stroke should cut down on the strikeouts and physical maturity should only serve to increase his power.
It’s very early to project much for Rodriguez but he’s off to a helluva start and such a beginning deserves attention.
Hamilton Sarabia
DOB: 6/11/82. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 190. Bats: L. Throws: R. Acquired: Signed as a non-drafted free agent (8/24/99) from Cartagena, Colombia.
Spring Training Comments:
After Hector Gimenez, perhaps the offensive leader of the latest VZ academy grads described by Andres Reiner as the best group perhaps since the original class signed in 1990-1991…has been likened to Bob Abreu in that he hits left-handed and has the same kind of very quick, compact stroke with tremendous bat speed likely to develop into a power stroke as he gains more experience and physical maturity…also patient at the plate and willing to spray line drives all over the field…not likely to develop into a superior defensive player so he’ll probably be restricted to left field…very aggressive by nature, has a strong desire to succeed and is a very intelligent, natural ballplayer…at least three people who had never heard of Sarabia and saw him last year at Martinsville all came away very impressed, particularly with his approach at the plate…obviously it’s still very early but Sarabia is one to keep an eye on.
Update:
Everything was a step backward in 2003 for Sarabia. Two of the same folks who saw him in 2002 and were impressed with him then came away this year shaking their heads wondering what happened. The compact, quick and powerful stroke of last year was replaced by a more opposite-field, slap approach and it wasn’t pretty. Nor was it effective. We asked around to see if Sarabia had suffered an undisclosed injury but were assured that he was healthy, which simply adds to the puzzlement.
We’re at a loss other than to say it’s apparent Sarabia still has much to learn and is likely to spend a third year in short-season ball. Doing so knocks him down a peg on the watch list. But, again, Mr. Reiner spoke highly of Hamilton and so there’s still hope he can turn his ship around.
Next Week: LHPs