November 3, 2003
Editor’s note – This is the first in a series of installments of the annual Minor Opinions Prospect Report, an OWA exclusive.
The Astros minor league system, not exactly in robust health at the start of the year, went on life support during the first half of the 2003 season as prospect after prospect (most of whom were pitchers) had some sort of problem. Cory Doyne was suspended and later released by the organization for unspecified off-the-field transgressions. Tony Pluta blew out his elbow and subsequently underwent Tommy John surgery. 2002 3rd round pick Rory Shortell was penciled into the starting rotation at Salem at the beginning of the year (impressive given his zero pro experience) but didn’t throw a pitch until mid-season where he managed 1 IP with Tri-City before being reassigned to extended spring training for recurring elbow discomfort. Nick Roberts was also stuck on the DL. Rob Stiehl continued to be MIA as his layoff from rotator cuff surgery stretched to 2+ years. Jason Lane suffered an abdominal strain in late April that would cause him to go on the DL on 2 separate occasions and resulted in his missing a substantial number of games over the next 3 months. We found out that Dominican pitchers Eny Cabreja (age 22) and Manuel Flores (age 19) didn’t even exist: the names were “borrowed” and said players were really 24-year old Wandy Rodriguez and 22-year old Juan De Leon. The visa process which caught these two players in their misappropriations of others’ identities also caused both to miss the first month and a half of the season. Other Dominican prospects limited their lies to age only. LHP Juan Beltre was 23 rather than 21. Ditto for OF Robinson Cespedes. C German Melendez was 22 instead of 21.
What was going on between the lines during the early going wasn’t much better. Top-ranked pitcher Chad Qualls, who should have been dominating the Texas League in a repeat season, was being dominated instead. Another highly-ranked pitcher (and member of the Astros 40-man roster), Jimmy Barrett, was getting pounded in outing after outing for Salem. Ruddy Lugo, who joined the organization in January after coming from the Dodgers in the Daryle Ward trade, started the season 0-8 with a 5.60 ERA. Mike Burns, after a 14-9 season at Michigan last year with a 2.49 ERA, had difficulty with the 2-level jump to AA and started out 1-6 with a 6.06 ERA. Manny Santillan and Juan Campos were also unable to make the leap to Round Rock from low-A ball and were demoted to high-A Salem. Rodrigo Escobar tossed up 6 gopher balls in his first 15.1 innings at Lexington. Ernnie Sinclair racked up a 2.50 WHIP and 12.38 ERA in 6 appearances with Salem and then was sent back to extended spring training suffering from tendinitis.
As for the guys with the sticks, the first half picture wasn’t any prettier. Among top prospects, John Buck struggled making the adjustment to AAA before busting his hand and missing nearly 2 months of action while 20-year old Hector Gimenez was a bit overwhelmed by the jump to high-A ball. Worse still, the entire Lexington Legends roster of hitters, with the exception of Justin Humphries, should have been ashamed of themselves and there wasn’t much to speak of coming out of the new affiliate in Salem, other than Todd Self continuing to be a good slap-hitting first baseman.
Thankfully, the season’s second half saw mostly good news on the prospect front. Qualls was arguably, from a performance standpoint, the best pitcher in the TL from mid-June until season’s end. Barrett‘s numbers were much improved over the season’s first half (if still a far cry from the outstanding stats he put up in 2002 at Lexington). Converted SS Chris Sampson, who had been out of baseball for 3 seasons before Houston signed him in January, was almost untouchable on the mound over the final 2 months. LHP Jesse Carlson, who was signed by the Astros in spring training after being released by the Tigers for supposed bad-boy behavior, was assigned to the Legends in mid-April. While his performance from the start was great, he actually cranked it up a notch as the season progressed. It culminated in a 35-inning scoreless streak out of the bullpen which lasted from mid-June to late August. Campos righted his ship at Salem and became perhaps the best closer in the Carolina League. Escobar and Sinclair also improved as the season went along, although both (like Campos) had to drop down to a lower level in order to achieve it. On the down side, Lugo, Burns and Santillan never were able to straighten out their problems.
Looking at the hitters who shined in the 2nd half: Brooks Conrad, who struggled mightily starting the season as a repeat with Lexington, blossomed when promoted to Salem after about six weeks of the season. Conrad ended up leading the Avalanche in RBI and SLG as a second baseman. Lane returned strong from a second stint on the DL and again impressed when allowed to strut his stuff at the major league level. It may be something of a stretch to give credit to a guy who finished the season with a 1/3 K/AB ratio but Charlton Jimerson really did show improvement after recovering from a broken hand and in the second half of the 2003 season for Salem. He finished the season with the final Player of the Week award in the Carolina League. Chris Burke deserves mention here for consistent performance. He made good strides in stepping up as the leadoff man for Round Rock, finishing with a respectable .379 OBP and 34 stolen bases. We’d like to see a little more pop from Burke, but if he can continue to increase his OBP and prove to be a solid table-setter he will justify his first round selection.
Prospectville got a further boost when the short-season and Latin Summer League clubs cranked up in June. 2nd-year man Mitch Talbot’s pro debut at Martinsville was impressive as hell and might have vaulted him to the head of the class in terms of young pitching prospects in the Houston system. Another 19-year old 2nd-year RHP, Chance Douglass, could lay claim to that crown due to his equally outstanding season at Martinsville (his superb 1.05 WHIP just narrowly trailed Talbot‘s 1.04 WHIP; both marks were the best of any starting pitcher in the organization with the exception of Sampson‘s 0.95). 2003 draftees Jason Hirsh and Jimmy Barthmaier were impressive in their pro debuts. Fellow draft picks Mike Collar and Jamie Merchant also had nice performances. Pitching prospects from the 2001 and 2002 DFE classes (RHPs Matt Albers, Raymar Diaz and Ryan McKeller) provided solid, even surprising, contributions. Import Felipe Paulino caused Appy League hitters’ sphincter muscles to tighten with a fastball that occasionally reached triple digits and control that was less than pinpoint. Three other imports, Ronnie Martinez, Alan Vergara and lefty Julio Salazar, joined with Talbot and Douglass to form an outstanding starting rotation at Martinsville while Joey DeLeon and Derek Grigsby joined Albers, Hirsh and Merchant in a Tri-City rotation that was not all that shabby in its own right. The Dominican team was led by starters Fernando Abad and Sergio Severino who combined to strike out 172 batters in 132.1 IP while walking only 40 and combining for a tidy 1.63 ERA. Victor Garate stepped to the fore of the Venoco team in Venezuela and allowed only 39 hits in 71 IP, finishing with a microscopic 1.39 ERA.
Position players were not as abundant in the summer leagues but there were some standout names: 2002 DFE signee 1B Scott Robinson may not have lit up the stat sheets but this kid is going to be a hitter. His teammate at Tri-City, 2003 4th round selection OF Josh Anderson, also has a chance of being a solid player with good speed and leadoff potential. The 19th round selection this past June, 2B Edwin Maysonet, may have been the surprise of the draft for Houston as his .411 OBP with the ValleyCats earned him a trip to Instuctional League. Not far behind Maysonet is SS Wade Robinson, a 12th round pick, who hit .306 during his introductory season of pro ball. At a level down the ladder, 3B Saul Torres showed improvement with the bat, though not in the power department. The 21-year old Venezuelan hit .322/.410./.439 in his second stint with Martinsville and might deserve rapid advancement were he to have made similar, or any, advancement with his glove. OF Ervin Alcantara had an even more impressive stat line with the M’stros but one must discount his totals as it was found he suffered from DAS and is really 23 years old instead of 21. In the Dominican, 1B Jose Cruceta stood out with his .335 AVG despite not showing much home run power. In Venezuela, 18-year old OF Yamber Rodriguez showed the makings of a star, finishing 2nd in the league with 6 HRs, 4th in stolen bases with 19 and 5th in OBP at .437. INF Javier Meza showed a great batter’s eye in his second VSL season and INF Cesar Quintero may have outplayed everyone on the team in the final totals had he been able to play more than just 26 games.
Ultimately, we believe that the season’s 2nd half developments were positive enough to over-shadow the 1st-half problems and leaves the minor league system stronger than it was a year ago at this time. One concrete measure of this is Baseball America’s Top 20 Prospect Lists for each league which come out at the end of the season (these lists are based on polls conducted by BA with managers in each league). This year, the Astros had 8 players named to these lists (Rodrigo Rosario, Buck, Burke, Jared Gothreaux, Gimenez, Fernando Nieve, Talbot and Paulino). The organization had only 4 players chosen in 2002.
Problems still remain. There’s a ton of right-handed pitching prospects but relatively few of them have reached the AA/AAA level to provide much in the way of immediate help. Left-handers are still few and far between and those that exist are mostly 3-4 years away. And position players? Well, get out your wish lists from other organizations as the only way Houston is going to quickly replenish the system in that area is via trade.
As discussed further below, we’re going to provide an updated list of prospects and discuss in further detail how their 2003 seasons went. You’ll notice some 16 players have disappeared from the list of 55 prospects that Minor Opinions came up with prior to the season. Three of those guys have graduated to the majors while another six are no longer with the organization. The remaining seven disappearances relate to guys we now consider not much more than roster filler or are so injury-prone as to reduce their chances at playing in the majors to near nil.
Among the prospect graduates, Brad Lidge and Adam Everett made outstanding contributions in 2003 for the Astros while Jeriome Robertson was pretty solid (would have been a bit more solid had the season ended on Sept. 20). Quite frankly, Houston’s bacon got saved this season in large part by the beyond expected performance of these three untested youngsters. Their doing so serves as another in a long list of examples pointing to the necessity of consistently producing talent if an organization wants to successfully compete on a regular basis.
Since we’re not compiling a list of San Diego prospects, it seemed appropriate to lop off Mr. Doyne (he signed with the Padres after his ignominious exit). Pitcher Angel Barrios went from prospect to suspect to outright released in the span of a couple of weeks after making just 3 appearances with a 2.00 WHIP for Lexington. Valentin Mendez also got his release after a month of play with Martinsville. This despite the fact he hit .307/.396/.392 with Martinsville last year and was hitting .395/.439/.526 this season when the ‘stros cut him loose. Apparently an utter lack of defensive skills made him expendable despite his ability to rake. Darwin Peguero was not re-signed by the Astros over the winter and was last seen pitching in the independent Canadian Baseball League before it suspended operations. Ramon German’s precipitous collapse with the bat finally forced his release in June (his hitting problems continued afterwards as he signed on to play in the independent leagues and was released after just 11 games with a sub-.200 batting average). Rule 5 draftee and CF Victor Hall was returned to the D-Backs organization and had a decent season (.300/.370/.376) for El Paso.
Though Stiehl finally made it back in the season’s 2nd half with 4 shaky appearances at Tri-City, he quickly returned to the DL and at this stage a comeback seems remote. Even if he does pitch for the organization next year, after having missed all or most of the last 3 seasons we think his odds of ever being an effective pitcher at the big league level are very long indeed. We finally gave up on Greg Miller after too many seasons of injuries and ineffectiveness and for the same reasons we have dumped Gavin Wright. With regards to Burns, one bad year isn’t necessarily enough of a reason to have your prospect status revoked. But a bad season AFTER you’ve turned age 25 is plenty of justification. And speaking of long in the tooth, Roberts turns 27 next month and it’s time to say farewell. DAS sufferers Cespedes (.229/.330/.300) and Melendez (.218/.295/.251) had such horrendous offensive years at Lexington that we’ll wave bye-bye to them as well.
Over the next couple of months we’ll be covering the players who made our revised prospect list. At the end of this process we’ll announce our First Annual OWA Minor League Player and Pitcher of the Year. Also look for news and notes from the Arizona Fall League, the fall instructional league and the winter leagues. The planned schedule for our prospect writeups is as follows:
Nov. 10 – Catchers, Infielders
Nov. 17 – Outfielders
Nov. 24 – LHPs
Dec. 1 – RHPs (1 of 3)
Dec. 8 – RHPs (2 of 3)
Dec. 15 – RHPs (3 of 3)