The Astros’ Sunday loss to the Cardinals, combined with Chicago’s defeat of Pittsburgh, leaves the Astros just one-half game ahead of the Cubs for the Central Division lead. With seven games to play, the Astros have no margin for error if they hope to claim their fifth division title in seven seasons.
Perhaps the most unusual aspect of the Astros-Cubs battle is the tightness of the race despite the vast difference between them in runs scored and allowed. The Astros have scored 85 more and allowed 30 fewer runs than the Cubs. Put another way, the Astros have outscored their opponents by 139 runs. The Cubs have outscored theirs by 24. Based on this data, it is extremely improbable that the Astros and Cubs have nearly identical won-loss records.
The relationship between runs scored and allowed and wins and losses is straightforward. As a general rule, the square of a team’s runs scored and allowed is proportional to its wins and losses. In other words:
RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2) = W / (W + L) = winning percentage
Here are the Astros and Cubs by this method:
Hou = 776^2 + (776^2 + 637^2) = .597
Chi = 691^2 + (691^2 + 667^2) = .518
Thus, the Astros have an estimated record of 93-62, while the Cubs have an estimated record of 81-75. The estimated gap between them is 12-1/2 games rather than the one-half game that actually separates them. In other words, the Astros and Cubs are 12 games closer together than their runs scored and allowed estimate.
This is not to say that runs scored and allowed are determinative. The only thing that ultimately counts is what shows up in the win and loss columns. But the relationship between runs scored and allowed and actual wins and losses is strong. Runs scored and allowed yield estimated won-loss records with accuracy of 96 percent for all teams since 1876. And the combined disparity between actual and estimated won-loss records for the Astros and the Cubs this season is rare.
Indeed, the size of the gap between actual and estimated records between the Astros and the Cubs is of historic proportions, particularly for a close race. If the Cubs win the division, it will be one of the greatest upsets ever. Only one team, the 1997 Giants, has finished in first place when the gap between actual and estimated records was so great:
1997 National League West Tm W L GB R RA EW EL EGB ------------------------------------------- SF 90 72 --- 784 790 80 82 12.0 LA 88 74 2.0 740 645 92 70 --- Col 83 79 7.0 925 908 83 79 9.0
The 1981 Reds did not win the division because of the split-season resulting from the strike, but their situation was otherwise comparable. In fact, like the 1997 Giants, Cincinnati only had the third-best estimated record in the division that season:
1981 National League West Tm W L GB R RA EW EL EGB ------------------------------------------- Cin 66 42 --- 464 440 57 51 10.0 LA 63 47 4.0 450 356 68 42 --- Hou 61 49 6.0 394 331 64 46 4.0
Compare this to the similar situation among the Astros, Cubs and Cardinals this year:
2003 National League Central Tm W L GB R RA EW EL EGB ------------------------------------------- Hou 84 71 --- 776 637 93 62 --- Chi 84 72 0.5 691 667 81 75 12.5 StL 81 76 4.0 845 777 85 72 9.0
While the Cubs have an actual record three games better than their estimated record and the Cardinals have an actual record four games worse than their estimated record, the Astros have an actual record nine games worse than their estimated record. This nine-game deficit would be among the 50-worst marks since 1876.
It is noteworthy in this regard that the Cubs have a 27-16 record in one-run games and thus a 57-56 record in games decided by two runs or greater, while the Astros have an 18-21 record in one-run games and thus a 66-50 record in games decided by two runs or greater. The Cubs have been more efficient or, some might argue, luckier.
Of 330 first-place teams since 1876, 261 (79 percent) also finished with the best expected record, 277 (84 percent) finished within one game of the best expected record, 301 (91 percent) finished within three games of the best expected record and 328 (99 percent) finished within 10 games of the best expected record.
Even if the Astros hang on to first place, they will have endured one of the closest battles ever with a foe with a distinctly inferior estimated record. Here are two of the hardest-fought such contests ever:
1924 National League Tm W L GB R RA EW EL EGB ------------------------------------------- NY 93 60 --- 857 641 98 55 --- Bro 92 62 1.5 717 675 82 72 16.5
1978 National League West Tm W L GB R RA EW EL EGB ------------------------------------------- LA 95 67 --- 727 573 100 62 --- Cin 92 69 2.5 710 688 83 78 14.0
These races, along with the 1997 National League West, are the tightest ever among teams with vastly different expected won-loss records.
Also in terms of runs, a first-place finish by the Cubs would be historic. As discussed above, the Astros have scored 85 more and allowed 30 fewer runs than the Cubs. This translates into a net 115-run advantage for the Astros.
Only one team — again, the 1997 Giants — has ever finished in first place with as many as 100 fewer net runs than another team. That season, the Dodgers had a net 101-run advantage over the Giants, and yet the Giants won the division by two games.
Next-closest are the 1922 Yankees, who finished 84 net runs behind the Browns but won the pennant by one game. The 1931 Athletics finished 75 net runs behind the Yankees but won the pennant by 13.5 games.
Of 330 first-place teams since 1876, 258 (78 percent) led their division or league in net runs, 292 (88 percent) finished within 25 net runs of the lead in net runs, 315 (96 percent) finished with 50 net runs of the lead and 327 (99 percent) finished within 75 net runs of the lead.
So the Cubs might make history at the expense of the Astros. Assuming the disparity in runs scored and allowed remains over the last week of the season, the number of teams that have done what the Cubs are aiming to do can be counted on the right hand of Three Finger Brown, the last ace to lead the Cubs to a World Series title. If the Lovable Losers become winners, the odds they overcame will be even greater than most people realize.