If Miss Cleo had announced in spring training that, at the All-Star break, the Astros’ No. 1 and No. 2 starters would be 11-14 and the Cardinals’ No. 3 and No. 4 hitters would have 55 home runs, most people would’ve expected Houston to be eating St. Louis’ dust. Instead, at 50-44, the Astros sit precariously atop the Central Division, leading the Cardinals by one game and the Cubs by three games.
They might better be called the Houston Yo-Yos for their tendency of sweeping — six times — and being swept — three times — in what seems like alternating fashion. The Astros have kept afloat on winning streaks of seven, seven and five games, punctuated by four losing skids of four games. To be any streakier they’d have to run the bases naked.
Here’s how they’ve fared in certain situations:
NL ML Split W L Pct Rank Rank ----------------------------------- Overall 50 44 .532 5th 11th Home 32 18 .640 4th 6th Road 18 26 .409 14th 23rd One-Run 12 16 .429 13th 22nd Expected 54 40 .578 3rd 6th
The Astros have 31 home games and 37 road games remaining this season. This may present a problem for a team that has feasted on home cooking.
Having outscored their opponents by 69 runs, the Astros might expect to have four more wins than their record reflects. Part of this is likely explained by their subpar performance in one-run games. The Cardinals have suffered from the same affliction (5-16), and have a comparable expected record (53-41), having outscored their opponents by 61 runs.
Batting
Offensively, the Astros rank fourth in the league and 10th in the majors with 5.03 runs per game. Take this with a grain of salt, since the Astros play in a home park that continues to inflate offense. The Astros and their opponents are scoring 4.76 runs per game in Houston and 4.55 runs per game elsewhere, a bonus of about 5 percent. While the Astros are fifth in the league with 5.32 runs per game at home, they are just 10th in the league with 4.71 runs per game on the road. By way of comparison, the Cardinals are scoring 5.53 runs per game at home and 5.82 runs per game on the road.
Catcher. Brad Ausmus (.201/.274/.258) is faring far worse than his pedestrian 2002 campaign (.257/.322/.353). Even with his skills behind the plate, the Astros can ill-afford a second half as poor as his first half. Tough as it is to say about a Gold Glove winner who inspires so much confidence when he’s on the field, particularly given the alternative, but he looks like he’s lost his ability to face big-league pitching.
Gregg Zaun (.228/.298/.326) is in his second straight disappointing season. His dismal 2002 performance (.222/.275/.319) came on the heels of fine hitting in 2000-2001 (.290/.386/.454). Zaun is outhitting Ausmus, but so is virtually every non-pitcher in the league. The options at the backstop are bleak for the Astros.
First Base. At this rate, 2006 might not come too soon for Jeff Bagwell (.271/.363/.469). The lurking question is whether Bagwell’s drop-off in productivity is just one of his infamous super-slumps or whether his shoulder has permanently affected his ability to play at or even near the level he once did. He started coming around the week before the break (.350/.536/.650), but he’s going to need more than a monster week to match his 2002 season (.291/.401/.518), much less to approach his lofty 1996-2001 standards (.301/.429/.583). Offensively, the difference between Bagwell 2002 and Bagwell 2003 has been about two fewer wins for the Astros this season. While the Astros can win without him returning to form, reasserting his dominance in the line-up would provide a critical spark in the run and win columns in the second half.
Second Base. Jeff Kent (.313/.373/.521) has been as advertised, deviating little from the fine numbers he posted from 2000-2002 (.307/.369/.534). Had he not spent a month on the disabled list prior to the break, he should’ve made the All-Star team. Even without Kent, the offense has been performing better in July (5.46 runs per game) than in April, May and June (4.96 runs per game), and Kent’s return should make the line-up that much more potent.
Third Base. Morgan Ensberg (.312/.418/.613) recently surpassed Geoff Blum in playing time at third base, which is both a monument to Ensberg’s brilliant hitting since May and a testament to manager Jimy Williams’ stubborn resistance to starting younger players ahead of veterans. In full playing time, Ensberg could’ve been an All-Star. Much more important, the plate appearances Blum has logged ahead of Ensberg have cost the Astros runs and wins. Ensberg is crushing the ball. He’s among the team leaders in home runs with more than 100 at-bats fewer than the players he’s tied with. He’s hitting for average and drawing walks. It will be hard to keep up his torrid pace the entire season, but at this point, Ensberg is the team’s best hitter.
Blum (.279/.316/.430) has not managed to continue his respectable 2002 performance (.283/.367/.440), chiefly because of a huge drop-off in OBP. Why somebody with trouble getting on base is hitting so often in the No. 2 hole (271 of 288 plate appearances) is a good question. Actually, with Williams as manager, there’s no use asking. Recently, Blum has been handy as a replacement for Kent, but with Kent’s return, Williams needs to stop starting Blum ahead of Ensberg except when Ensberg needs a rest.
Shortstop. While Adam Everett (.254/.307/.392) isn’t A-Rod, he isn’t Rey-O, either. He’s drawing fewer walks but hitting for more power than his minor-league performance would predict. He’s proving to be the best bunter and base-stealer on the team. If Everett continues this output offensively, his glove justifies his presence in the line-up, particularly given the alternatives.
Julio Lugo (.246/.338/.292) is now with Tampa Bay, and Jose Vizcaino (.245/.273/.371) is out for eight weeks with a broken wrist. As one might have predicated, Vizcaino, at 35, is not repeating his 2002 season (.303/.342/.397), which was his best in years. With the middle infield thinned by injury, the Astros have tried a few other players who haven’t done much.
Left Field. Lance Berkman (.279/.403/.513), after batting dreadfully in April (.208/.337/.319), has broken out in May, June and July (.300/.425/.571) — pretty much what you’d expect from him. From the right side (.217/.314/.350), Berkman is an entirely different hitter than from the left side (.294/.423/.552). What’s the point of switch-hitting when you post a differential of 109 points of OBP and 202 points of slugging percentage? Any manager worth his bullpen telephone should be ready to turn Berkman around in the late innings when the game’s on the line. He’s a third more likely to make an out that way. Berkman is supposedly considering giving up switch-hitting. It’d be interesting to see if he hits lefties better from the left. Given his performance from the right, it wouldn’t take much.
Center Field. Craig Biggio (.273/.352/.424) is having a better season than in 2002 (.253/.330/.404). He’s not close to his 2001 comeback season (.292/.382/.455), however, and, at 37, he may never see those levels again. Despite this, only four other full-time players have a higher lead-off OBP — Ichiro (.391), Mark Grudzielanek (.360), Juan Pierre (.359) and Alfonso Soriano (.357). Biggio has added 26 points to his OBP by taking one for the team 16 times so far this season. Biggio has now been hit by 230 pitches in his career, fifth all-time.
Biggio recently collected his 500th career double and, with 27 at the break, is on pace to finish with 47 for the season and 520 overall. Hitting doubles won’t alone get a player into the Hall of Fame, but Biggio is moving up the doubles list among players who almost all happen to be in Cooperstown. Barring injury, Biggio is likely to collect his 1,500th run scored and his 2,500th hit late this season or early next season.
Brian Hunter (.247/.293/.337), after a surprisingly adequate 2002 season (.269/.329/.423), has reverted to late-1990s form. He hasn’t stolen a base and, while drawing just six walks, has struck out 18 times in 89 at-bats (20 percent). Apparently this will still get you to the top of a line-up with Williams at the helm, as Hunter has almost 40 percent of his plate appearances in the No. 1 or No. 2 spot. The Astros can’t say they didn’t see this coming, and vintage low-OBP Hunter with Williams steering the ship is an awful combination for an offense.
Right Field. With Ensberg, Richard Hidalgo (.317/.389/.558) is Houston’s biggest surprise at the plate. For a player making $8.5 million, it’s about time. Hidalgo’s hard work in the off-season is apparently finally paying off. On a per-at-bat basis, Hidalgo is striking out 42 percent less often than in 2002 and 32 percent less often than in his entire career prior to this season. He’s not hitting with as much power as in his mighty 2000 season, but his batting average, OBP and slugging percentage still far exceed the last two seasons and are a potent addition to a line-up that includes Bagwell, Kent, Ensberg and Berkman.
Like the other veteran role players, Orlando Merced (.252/.306/.387) has not revisited his success from last season (.287/.350/.434). The extent to which the Astros were fortunate to receive the 2002 performances of Blum, Hunter, Merced and Vizcaino cannot be overstated. Last season, these four veterans combined for 1,360 plate appearances — the equivalent of two full-time players, able to play eight positions between them ?- with a performance (.288/.349/.422) well above average.
But this was not typical. This quartet had been considerably less effective in 1999-2001 (.261/.326/.376). There was no reason to believe they wouldn’t return to their previously established levels in 2003, and they more or less have (.261/.301/.395). The drop-off from this season to last — 48 points of OBP and 27 points of slugging percentage -? has probably been worth about two fewer games in the win column for the Astros this season.
Here’s a breakdown of how the Astros have batted by position:
NL ML Pos Avg OBP Slg OPS Rank Rank ----------------------------------------- P .130 .151 .154 .305 10th N/A C .211 .287 .278 .628 16th 28th 1B .274 .364 .471 .834 10th 14th 2B .315 .361 .514 .875 2nd 3rd 3B .279 .350 .493 .893 3rd 5th SS .254 .310 .386 .696 8th 16th LF .273 .395 .493 .887 4th 7th CF .274 .349 .424 .773 11th 17th RF .306 .373 .526 .900 4th 5th PH .212 .284 .344 .628 9th 17th
The Astros rank in the top five in the league at second base, third base, left field and right field, and are average at shortstop. They’ve been below average at first base and center field, where their two storied veterans play. There’s no reason they can’t squeeze more productivity out of first base in the second half. The Astros are abysmal at catcher, and that looks unlikely to change this season.
And by batting order:
NL ML Pos Avg OBP Slg OPS Rank Rank ----------------------------------------- No. 1 .273 .347 .422 .769 3rd 11th No. 2 .268 .318 .450 .768 10th 18th No. 3 .268 .366 .459 .824 9th 19th No. 4 .312 .407 .532 .939 5th 7th No. 5 .315 .392 .573 .965 1st 1st No. 6 .281 .353 .472 .825 2nd 5th No. 7 .212 .288 .309 .597 16th 30th No. 8 .243 .305 .344 .650 11th 20th No. 9 .194 .233 .281 .514 6th N/A
The bottom three of Houston’s line-up (.216/.277/.312) ranks second-worst in the league and the majors with an OPS of .589. That OPS is little better than the .573 posted by the Cardinals’ pitching staff (.225/.284/.289). Yes, that’s right, the Astros’ No. 7, No. 8 and No. 9 hitters have a worse batting average and OBP than Cardinals pitchers. It’s one thing to sacrifice some offense in exchange for good defense, but conceding outs so readily for three straight batters makes it extremely difficult for the Astros to mount a comeback when they reach the ninth inning and the bottom of the line-up is due at the plate, particularly given the lackluster pinch-hitting the Astros have endured (.212/.284/.344).
Pitching
Everyone knew the Astros had questions at the bottom of their rotation, but what hardly anyone expected was that their top starters would struggle. The staff’s 4.00 ERA overall ranks them sixth in the league and ninth in the majors. Accounting for park effects, this is even more impressive than it first appears. This success is because the bullpen has been stellar at 22-16 with a 3.29 ERA (3rd in NL, 4th in ML). With 336 innings pitched (1st in NL, 2nd in ML) by their relievers, though, the Astros are in danger of overtaxing their bullpen. To take the next step, Houston needs a strong recovery by its starters, who were just 28-28 with a 4.46 ERA (10th in NL, 16th in ML) in the first half.
Starters. Roy Oswalt (14 games, 5-5, 3.15 ERA), despite his record, has been effective when he’s been available, but a groin injury has caused him to miss roughly a quarter of his starts. His health is perhaps the biggest key to the Astros’ fortunes in the second half.
While Wade Miller (20 games, 6-9, 4.66 ERA) has been healthy, he hasn’t pitched particularly well by his standards, especially compared with 2001-2002 (31-12, 3.35). His walks, hits and home runs allowed are more or less at last season’s levels. What has changed is that his strikeouts per nine innings (7.13) are off from 2000-2002 (7.78), which may indicate that Miller isn’t fooling hitters as well as he used to. He’s still well above average in strikeouts, however, so this is no immediate cause for alarm.
Tim Redding (19 games, 6-7, 3.75 ERA as a starter) seems to be finally putting it together, compiling a nice ERA in 19 starts. Redding’s strikeouts are reason for concern, however. His 5.82 per nine innings in 2003 are well below his 8.23 in 2001-2002. Strikeout rate is the single most important indicator of a young pitcher’s future success, and this aspect of Redding’s game has slipped. This may be just transitory, but it’s worth keeping an eye on since it could portend a rougher second half.
Jeriome Robertson (17 games, 8-3, 4.76 ERA as a starter) is filling in respectably at the back of the rotation. He has improved as the season has progressed (7.99 ERA in April, 4.94 in May, 3.58 in June, 2.51 in July), chiefly by reducing the number of runners he allows on base (15.57 per nine innings in April, 14.49 in May, 12.69 in June, 9.45 in July).
Seven other pitchers have started for the Astros, with only Scott Linebrink (6 games, 1-0, 4.03 ERA as a starter) and Ron Villone (5 games, 1-0, 2.70 ERA) getting more than three opportunities. Linebrink is now with the Padres, and Villone has won a starting job. In five starts since June 18, Villone has been consistent, averaging six innings pitched, 1.8 earned runs, 4.2 hits, two walks and five strikeouts in those games. He gets the Astros to the bullpen with a quality start, which is a nice contribution from the back of the rotation.
Bullpen. The first-half MVP of this team was a three-headed, flame-throwing, game-shortening monster of Billy Wagner (47 games, 2.26 ERA, 8.19 BR/9, 11.15 SO/9), Octavio Dotel (47 games, 2.52 ERA, 8.55 BR/9, 10.40 SO/9) and Brad Lidge (46 games, 2.52 ERA, 10.44 BR/9, 10.40 SO/9). This wicked trio, in 96-1/3 innings pitched through the end of May, struck out 115 batters while allowing just 56 hits, 33 walks and 17 earned runs. Through midseason, they’ve pitched 159 innings, posting a 2.43 ERA as well as 5.83 hits and 10.64 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .183 against them. They’re striking out 3.23 batters for each walk they allow.
Houston has enjoyed excellent middle relief as well, with Ricky Stone (38 games, 3.52 ERA), Pete Munro (33 games 3.20 ERA as a reliever) and Kirk Sarloos (19 games, 2.95 ERA as a reliever) getting most of the work. Neither Brandon Puffer (13 games, 5.14 ERA) nor Nate Bland (22 games, 5.75 ERA) were effective for long. The Astros have unsuccessfully attempted to shuffle others into the mix. Wagner, Dotel, Lidge, Stone, Munro and Sarloos have combined for a 2.80 ERA in 273-1/3 innings pitched. The rest have posted a 5.46 ERA in 62-1/3 innings pitched.
Fielding
The Astros rank fourth in the league and sixth in the majors with a .957 fielding percentage. The Astros have converted 70.1 percent of balls in play into outs (8th in NL, 16th in ML). They’ve turned 88 double plays (10th in NL, 18th in ML). Houston’s 32 outfield assists — six by Berkman (T-4th in NL, T-4th in ML among LF), eight by Biggio (T-1st in NL, T-2nd in ML among CF) and 12 by Hidalgo (2nd in NL, 2nd in ML among RF) — lead the majors.
Astros catchers have thrown out 32 of 83 runners (38.6 percent) attempting to steal (2nd in NL, 4th in ML). Ausmus is responsible for 25 of 64 (39.1 percent, 5th in NL, 8th in ML). Surprising as it may sound, this aspect of his game may be waning. His 35-percent rate in 2002-2003 is off his sparkling 48-percent rate in 2000-2001. This puts him closer to the middle of the pack rather than among the elite defensive catchers.
Second Half
The Astros are fortunate that the Cardinals, with substandard pitching, have been unable to capitalize on their monstrous offense. Their staff has posted a 4.63 ERA (11th in NL, 19th in ML), but at 5.67 runs per game, their line-up ranks first in the league and third in the majors. That’s something for a team that doesn’t play home games mile-high or regularly use a designated hitter. The bad news for Houston is that the Cardinals have yet to enjoy the ridiculous run they seem to make every season. After the All-Star break, the Cardinals were 50-27 (.649) in 2002, 50-26 (.658) in 2001 and 44-31 (.587) in 2000, good for 144-84 (.631) overall.
The good news for the Astros is that they’ve managed to remain near or at the top of the Central without running on all cylinders, either. The rotation has been underwhelming, and, offensively, some old hands have been less than reliable. With key returns from injury and mediocrity in the second half, the Astros are capable of making a run of their own.