By Michael N
January 17, 2003
LEFT-HANDED PITCHERS:
Juan Beltre – DOB: 12/6/81, Bats: L, Throws: L
A pencil-thin left-hander, Beltre sports a fastball in the low 90s, a slider and change. In his first exposure to baseball in the US, he worked from the bullpen in Martinsville and showed excellent control.
It’s hard to make any sort of serious prognostication on a kid with all of 40 or so innings in rookie ball but reports I’ve gotten indicate he has the kind of arm speed and physical projection that should allow for him to become a starter down the line with even more oomph on the heater.
Beltre is someone to keep an eye on, anyway, for 2-3 years down the road. If he’s still sporting good ratios at that time we can get very excited.
2002 stats: 3-4 W-L, 24 G, 41.2 IP, 41 H, 18 ER, 16 BB, 52 K, 3.89 ERA
Eny Cabreja – DOB: 8/18/81, Bats: S, Throws: L
Cabreja will probably never throw as hard as fellow Venezuelan lefty Carlos Hernandez but he’s of the same mold, a short left-hander (5’10”) with a very good curveball. Eny’s fastball usually resides in the 89-91 territory and is somewhat straight in contrast to Carlos the Jackal’s 93-94 MPH with hop on it.
If there is one thing Eny has over Carlos at this stage of development, though, it’s control. In 233.1 innings pitched as a professional in the US, Cabreja has walked only 64 batters while punching out 204.
Quite honestly, I was somewhat surprised at the success Cabreja had last season with Lexington. Yes, he dominated rookie ball with Martinsville in 2001, but with the lack of a really good fastball I figured the Sally League might give him more of a challenge. Cabreja was clearly up to that challenge, and had a fine season; leading all Legend starters in strikeouts, innings pitched and wins. I still have some reservation about his ability to be as successful next year in the Carolina League but Cabreja is routinely making me eat my words and I hope to be hungry enough to do so again come September.
2002 stats: 11-4 W-L, 28 GS, 159.1 IP, 167 H, 67 ER, 44 BB, 137 K, 3.78 ERA
Greg Miller – DOB: 9/30/79, Bats: L, Throws: L
Another disappointing season for a guy at one time viewed as a solid contender to provide a much-needed lefty arm for the Astros. While it remains possible Miller could provide the big club with some help, with his injury history (back) and lack of consistently solid performance above the A-ball levels, the prospect is growing more and more remote.
Miller was able to join Round Rock for the last couple of months of the 2002 season but he just did not look like his old self. For the first time in his career, hitters were making solid contact off of him and he allowed more hits than innings pitched. Granted he was coming back from quite a layoff but one hoped to see something more from someone who once had such promise.
I’m not willing to write Miller off, though. If healthy, he will play all of the 2003 season as a 23-year old. But I’d like to see him stay healthy and get back on track before getting excited about him again.
2002 stats: 3-6 W-L, 14 G, 12 GS, 68.1 IP, 77 H, 44 R, 38 ER, 20 BB, 51 K, 5.00 ERA
RIGHT-HANDED PITCHERS:
Matt Albers – DOB: 1/20/83, Bats: R, Throws: R
Albers was originally selected out of Sugarland Clements HS in the 23rd round of the 2001 draft. He was a classic Astro Draft Follow Evaluate selection in the mold of guys like Kile, Oswalt, Miller and others who were selected raw talents selected in the late rounds, went to junior college for a year, proved their mettle and were signed prior to the next season’s draft.
I realize the names mentioned above are three of the very finest examples of the DFE process and it’s far too early to project that kind of success for Albers. He does not possess the kind of off-speed stuff Kile and Oswalt had at the same age. Physically Albers is similar to Oswalt in that he’s 6’ tall at best and he is somewhat comparable to all the aforementioned in that he has a very live heater that sits comfortably in the 93-94 MPH range. Let’s hope over the next several seasons he progresses in a fashion like his fellow DFE signees.
Matt shows outstanding arm speed and like 99% of all young pitchers, he needs to concentrate on throwing strikes with his fastball, refining his off-speed pitches and establish consistent control (7 HBP and 5 WP with Martinsville in less than 60 IP). It’s really a matter of experience for Albers. The tools are there, he just needs to refine them and gain the confidence earned through success.
He was part of the crew of players given additional tutorial this year at the Florida Instructional League. Reports to me were that Albers was very impressive, coachable and a hard worker. He has little fear and is very aggressive. Where he gets an assignment next year is guesswork at this point but given the conservative nature of the organization I’d think he’s most likely bound for Tri-City. With an impressive spring, though, he could get a roster spot in Lexington.
With Houston’s history of success utilizing the DFE process and the impressiveness of this kid’s arm, he’s clearly someone to keep an eye on.
2002 stats: 2-3 W-L, 13 GS, 59.2 IP, 61 H, 34 ER, 38 BB, 72 K, 5.13 ERA
Jimmy Barrett – DOB: 6/7/81, Bats: R, Throws: R
Barrett is the one player in the system who during 2002 stood up and demanded notice from the rest of baseball.
Like a great majority of Astro pitching draftees, Barrett was raw material which could be plugged into the machinery that seems to churn out quality young hurlers on a scale rivaled by only a very few other organizations. A former 3rd round selection from a small HS program in Maryland, Jimmy struggled somewhat for his first three years in the organization. It’s not as though he was being pounded around, his failing was throwing strikes consistently and giving away too many free passes.
In his second year of low-A ball, Barrett quit giving away freebies, kept the H/IP ratio to a respectable level and saw his ERA figure fall by nearly 2 runs per game off his career figure while his K/IP ratio jumped to nearly a 1-1 rate. For his effort with Lexington last year, Barrett was added this winter to the Houston Astros’ 40-man roster in order to protect his rights from those buzzards who circle the table at the Rule 5 draft.
As far as his repertoire, Barrett consistently throws in the 92-93 MPH range with good movement but has the ability to crank it up to the mid-90s on occasion. He also throws a curve and slider (have reason to believe he’s going to junk the slider and concentrate on the curve) but his change is still a work in progress. Jimmy is also an aggressive guy who is not at all afraid to pitch inside.
Barrett does not turn 22 until mid-season 2003 so for that reason I suspect he’ll report at the beginning of the year to Salem. If, however, he pitches during Spring Training or in the Carolina League as well as he did last year in the Sally League, it’s not far out of the realm of probability he’ll get a call-up to Round Rock at the beginning or certainly before the conclusion of the season.
2002 stats: 9-5 W-L, 27 G, 22 GS, 134.1 IP, 112 H, 42 ER, 40 BB, 131 K, 2.81 ERA
Angel Barrios – DOB: 8/6/81, Bats: R, Throws: R
Angel Barrios is a real wild card in the system, and a guy about whom not much has been written.
A native of Venezuela, Barrios has good size at 6’2” and the frame to carry more weight than his 170-175 pounds. According to a conversation I had with someone who definitely knows Barrios’ situation, if the young man matures physically and emotionally he projects very well and could be a guy with 3 above average major league pitches. Neither of those “ifs” are a given, though.
Unfortunately for Barrios, he sustained a slight injury last year (I believe a shoulder issue) that nearly derailed his entire season. Eventually he was able to get in a little over 20 innings between Martinsville and Lexington. In two short seasons of play in the US, Barrios has now punched out 83 hitters in 67 innings of work while walking only 23 and giving up 58 hits.
With such limited experience and the emotional question mark, it’s hard to project not only where Barrios will play next year but what role he’ll play with his team. Will he be a starter, as he’s been previously, or will he remain in the bullpen as he did in 2002? My best guess is that he’ll begin the year in Tri-City as a reliever but it’s certainly possible that if healthy he could join the rotation in Lexington.
That should tell you a little bit about how much uncertainty there is with this young hurler but also give you a clue as to his promise.
2002 stats: 1-0 W-L, 8 G, 21.1 IP, 13 H, 3 ER, 7 BB, 29 K, 1.67 ERA
Mike Burns – DOB: 7/14/78, Bats: R, Throws: R
A very late (30th) round selection in the 2000 draft, Burns put together a very nice season in a repeat year for the Michigan Battle Cats. Among the B’cat starters, Burns led in innings pitched, shutouts (2), tied for the lead in wins and was second in strikeouts. He also allowed fewer combined hits and walks than innings pitched.
Burns is not an overpowering pitcher but he effectively mixes a high-80s fastball with his off-speed pitches. He somewhat reminds me of guys like Nick Roberts, Ryan Jamison and Tommy Shearn in that he has enough stuff and experience to do well as a starter against younger players in low-A ball but will likely encounter problems in that role with more advanced hitters as he moves up the ladder. His control, though, should earn him a spot down the line in the bullpen of a higher-level minor league squad and his success there will tell the story of whether he’s able to crack a major league staff.
It’s possible he could start the year in Round Rock as he’s already 24 years old and it’s time to see if he can handle the upper levels. But he’ll probably start the year in Salem.
2002 stats: 14-9 W-L, 28 GS, 181.0 IP, 146 H, 50 ER, 29 BB, 126 K, 2.49 ERA
Joey DeLeon – RHP (DOB: 12/21/82, B; R, T: R)
Other than what happened with Burke, the biggest disappointment in the system in my book was the sophomore slump of Joey DeLeon. The disappointment comes partly because of my open rooting for him to do well. Many of you may recall the tragedy that befell the young man just prior to his being drafted when the mother of his little girl was killed in a car accident. Joey sucked it up, reported for duty and basically proceeded to take out a little revenge on professional hitters in 2001.
On his return to action this year, however, DeLeon basically could not catch a break. Hitters didn’t get a ton of great swings off of him but he suffered from bouts of wildness and when they happened he paid for them big time. Joey didn’t pitch horribly but he did end up leading the circuit in losses during 2002.
I wonder if his future lies in the bullpen but a guy who can throw the ball in the 93 MPH range and only turned 20 just prior to Xmas of ‘02 is going to get more opportunities to start. With a good showing in Spring, he may get that opportunity in Lexington. If not, it’s possible he could return for another year of short-season ball.
2002 stats: 4-10 W-L, 16 G, 16 GS, 80.2 IP, 66 H, 39 ER, 34 BB, 63 K, 4.35 ERA
Chance Douglass – DOB: 2/24/84, Bats: R, Throws: R
Douglass was coaxed out of a commitment to Rice University as a 12th round selection in the 2002 draft by an offer of third-round money. This is something of a coup by the Astros in that Douglass clearly had upper-round talent but teams were scared off by both the commitment to Rice and a slight shoulder injury he sustained at the end of his HS season at Canyon Randall.
The shoulder turned out to be no big deal and Douglass joined the Martinsville team after signing. Reportedly Douglass was somewhat tired after leading Randall to the Texas schoolboy playoffs and he did not have the radar gun readings he’d flashed earlier in the year. No matter, though. So long as he’s healthy, and all reports from FIL action indicate he is healthy, he has a power arm that reaches 93 MPH. He’s also a helluva hitter, setting just about every Amarillo-area HS hitting record before graduating.
Douglass is sky-high on the intelligence and maturity ratings. He’s a solid worker and a young man humbled by injury he sustained a couple of years ago, which threatened his ability to remain an athlete, as well as a recent life-threatening illness to his father.
I don’t want to predict that Douglass will move quickly through the system, as his off-speed pitches aren’t exactly polished. But if one believes, as I do, that adversity combined with intelligence and inner-drive makes a young man grow up a lot quicker than one can foresee the possibility Chance will shoot up the ladder.
As for next year, a conservative will tell you he’ll be in Tri-City. More ambitious folk will tell you he’s going to tear it up in spring and get a late invite to Lexington. I’ll go with the former but we’ll see what happens?
2002 stats: 2-1 W-L, 12 G, 9 GS, 44.1 IP, 45 H, 18 ER, 23 BB, 34 K, 3.65 ERA
Cory Doyne – DOB: 8/13/81, Bats: R, Throws: R
Doyne had built something of a reputation as a wild-child, both on and off the field. So despite having an impressive arm, he slid to the 8th round of the 2000 draft where he was selected by the Astros.
Since then, Doyne spent two seasons trying to corral his FB with a small measure of success with Martinsville. Last year he earned his first roster spot on a full-season squad (Michigan) and by reports continued to work on mechanics and repetition, toning down his FB from an occasional 94-95 to consistently in the 90-92 range. The result was a lowering of his walk totals while maintaining his standard of less than 1 hit per inning pitched. That his Ks per IP fell off is not that much of a concern when the primary focus was control and not trying to blow the ball past every hitter.
Given Doyne will not turn 22 until nearly the end of next season, I suspect that he’ll get another year in low-A ball with Lexington to further hone his control ala Jimmy Barrett. If Doyne has the same level of success as Barrett in his second go-round, he could well earn his own 40-man roster spot next winter.
Doyne has a good frame at 6’2” and 190. He can be a workhorse starter down the line if he’s able to harness his potential.
2002 stats: 9-8 W-L, 27 G, 26 GS, 141.2 IP, 131 H, 67 ER, 63 BB, 101 K, 4.26 ERA
Rodrigo Escobar – DOB: 2/11/83, Bats: R, Throws: R
Escobar is an import from Colombia who had an utterly dominant 2001 season for Venoco in the Venezuelan Summer League. This past season was his first with a US-based team and the pint-sized 5’11”, 165-pound right-hander acquitted himself quite nicely, leading Martinsville in IP and finishing with a 3.5/1 K/BB ratio. Rodrigo doesn’t throw super hard (upper 80s) but he mixes in a very nice curveball and change with what some call a bulldog mentality and very good control.
He’s had some nagging little injury problems but nothing serious. Escobar is also quite young and there may be some projection of strength when he physically matures. If he maintains control, stays healthy and can add a little bit extra on the fastball over the next couple of seasons he could end up an asset.
2002 stats: 6-2 W-L, 16 G, 10 GS, 78.0 IP, 71 H, 27 ER, 18 BB, 64 K, 3.12 ERA
Paul Estrada – DOB: 9/10/82, Bats: R, Throws: R
Estrada has been described to me as a physical clone of Freddy Garcia, unfortunately similar performance has been lacking.
This kid is all about projection. He’ll be able to throw the ball through a wall soon, but at some point he’s going to have to learn the fine art of pitching, as simply chucking the ball just doesn’t cut it.
2002 stats: 2-2 W-L, 14 G, 6 GS, 31.2 IP, 45 H, 41 ER, 36 BB, 42 K, 11.65 ERA
Manuel Flores – DOB: 6/5/84, Bats: R, Throws: R
If his age is to be believed, Manuel Flores is pretty exciting. The Dominican import played his first year of ball in the States with Tri-City during 2002 and was hardly intimidated by the competition. In fact, despite being the youngest player on the Valley Cat roster, Flores was probably the closest thing to a dominant player the team had all year.
Manuel sports a fastball in the 91-92 range with a curve and changeup. As with most players not yet 20 years old, there’s a lot of room for projection as his body reaches maturity and it’s impressive that he already throws pretty hard while at the same time also has a clue where the ball is going.
Am not sure what the Astros are going to do with Flores next year but given that he joined the FIL roster this winter, it seems a good bet that he might get a shot at earning a roster spot in Lexington at age 18. If that goes well and the number of candles on his birthday cake don’t magically increase by 3 instead of 1 next June, we just might see the budding of a star in the next year or two.
2002 stats: 3-2 W-L, 15 G, 9 GS, 55.2 IP, 37 H, 16 ER, 19 BB, 63 K, 2.59 ERA
Derick Grigsby – DOB: 6/30/82 Bats: R, Throws: R
I mentioned something a little earlier about adversity helping a young man grow up. Well, this young man has had more than his fair share in recent times. Grigsby’s mother passed away during his freshman year at UT and he transferred to Northeast Community College to be closer to his family home in Marshall (TX). He continued to display a power arm the next season and was selected in the first round by Houston. McLane then instituted a moratorium on signing high-round draft picks. When the strike didn’t happen, Grigsby became a millionaire. He then bought his father a Harley-Davidson motorcycle and within days of Derick reporting to the FIL, his old man crashes the motorcycle in a horrific accident.
Thank goodness Mr. Grigsby survived but, in all, it’s been a pretty heavy-duty roller-coaster ride for a 20-year old young man over the last 18 months or so.
While paling in comparison to his family responsibility, heading back home to Texas after the motorcycle accident prevented Grigsby from getting some much-needed instruction during the FIL season. The instruction is much needed because Grigsby is very much a raw product. He has a legitimate power arm despite his relatively short stature (6’ at best) with most of his velocity being generated by a solid lower frame ala Billy Wagner. His FB is a legitimate 94-95 MPH and he also throws a power slider at 86 MPH. The issue to resolve is control over those impressive weapons. One illustration of his wildness during his freshman year in Austin, he plunked four Stanford Cardinal batters in one inning of relief.
The Major League Scouting Bureau listed Grigsby’s comp as Ben Sheets. Derick has a ways to go in order to hone the polish of Sheets but if he can stay healthy and develop along those lines, Astro fans will be mighty pleased.
Best guess right now is that Grigsby will begin his pro career in Lexington.
2002 stats: did not play professional baseball
D.J. Houlton – DOB: 8/12/79, Bats: R, Throws: R
If there were such a thing as a system MVP last year, my vote would go to DJ Houlton. He did absolutely everything a pitcher can do for the Michigan Battle Cats last year. He started the year as the long-man and emergency starter, was the closer for a short spell and later joined the rotation full-time. When all was said and done, he lead the team in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts and was the winner in the only playoff victory for the Battle Cats this past season.
The sole legitimate reason I can think that Houlton is not getting much run in national circles is that he turned 23 in August and hasn’t progressed beyond low-A ball. But the former 11th round pick out of the University of the Pacific certainly has the frame (6’4”, 220), major league average stuff and control to be a successful pitcher as he climbs the ladder. In two years as a professional, Houlton has dominated to the tune of 211 strikeouts and only 38 walks over 218.2 IP with an ERA of 2.88.
Though he’s clearly been a success so far, I don’t know that Houlton has the kind of material to be anything more than a #4-5 starter in the majors. Not that this is a shame in any way as depth in the rotation is clearly important. His work out of the bullpen, though, has been outstanding. In 51.2 innings out of the pen over 19 appearances, Houlton allowed only 41 hits, 12 ER, walked only 14 and punched out 58 with an ERA of 2.09.
Houlton will most likely join the Salem affiliate next year. No word, though, if he’ll reprise his swing-man role or join either the rotation or bullpen full-time. Ultimately, though, I think this guy could be a very solid set-up guy.
2002 stats: 15-4 W-L, 36 G, 17 GS, 146.2 IP, 125 H, 50 ER, 31 BB, 140 K, 3.07 ERA
Brad Lidge – DOB: 12/23/76, Bats: R, Throws: R
Staying healthy for basically the entire year for the first time in his five years as a professional, Lidge spent most of the year at AAA ball and showed that there’s not much doubting he has the stuff to be a major league pitcher very soon.
Limited to a fairly strict pitch count when he was moved to the Z rotation, Lidge compiled the following numbers in his last 10 starts: 59.1 IP, 43 H, 24 R, 20 ER, 18 BB, 62 K, 3.03 ERA. This is a guy who had barely compiled 100 innings as a professional pitcher and he put up those kinds of numbers against the highest classification of minor league baseball. Not too shabby, Brad.
Outside of maybe only Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel, Lidge has the best pure power arm in the Astro organization. He has a riding fastball, which comfortably sits at 95-96 MPH and can go as high as 97-98 when he comes in as a reliever, and his slider is Richard-esque at 88-89. When Brad is in full command of that slider it is virtually untouchable and he can make batters look totally inept.
Lidge had a minor surgery performed on his knee this off-season but he’ll be ready for Spring Training. The big question remains how the Astros will use Lidge? Is he to go to the bullpen and team with Dotel as a pair of flame-throwing righties to set up Wagner, will he battle for one of the seemingly wide open 4-5 spots in the rotation or is the plan from the get-go to send him back to New Orleans for more seasoning?
However it all shakes out to start the 2003 campaign, a healthy Brad Lidge will eventually be a solid performer in the major leagues.
2002 stats (NOZ): 5-5 W-L, 24 G, 19 GS, 111.2 IP, 83 H, 42 ER, 47 BB, 110 K, 3.39 ERA
2002 stats (HOU): 1-0 W-L, 6 G, 1 GS, 8.2 IP, 12 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 9 BB, 12 K, 6.23 ERA
Ronnie Martinez – DOB: 7/6/83, Bats: R, Throws: R
Did not allow a single HR all season in utterly dominating the Dominican Summer League. Martinez is a rock solid 180 pounds on a 5’11” frame, another in the ever-expanding list of short right-handers who can get the ball up to the plate in the 90s.
Obviously production in the DSL bodes well but it remains very early in Martinez’s development to get too high on him. But he was pointed out to me over a year ago as someone to watch and his first full season of play as a professional earned him a trip to the Florida for the Instructional League, so one can rightfully surmise Ronnie is someone the Astros view as very promising.
Martinez is likely to get a visa next year and will most probably join the squad at Tri-City.
2002 stats: 6-1 W-L, 16 G, 15 GS, 84.1 IP, 64 H, 23 R, 11 ER, 19 BB, 91 K, 1.17 ERA
Fernando Nieve – DOB: 7/15/82, Bats: R, Throws: R
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: short right-hander who throws 100% natural gas (Astros patent pending).
Yep, another flame throwing kid and this one has one of the very highest readings on the gun. Nieve has been clocked in the 97-98 MPH range but is most effective when he’s throwing around 94. Problem is, to this point I’ve yet to hear anyone say much about a workable off-speed pitch. I did get a report that this is primarily what Nieve was working on in Florida at IL, along with standard mechanics training.
This past year Nieve spent a second season at Martinsville and there was solid improvement. It’s not that he had a poor 2001 season but in the second go-round Nieve did a much better job of throwing strikes in good spots and allowing his fielders to make plays instead of trying to strike everyone out. In doing so, he allowed only 2 more earned runs in nearly double the number of innings pitched.
In two stints with M’ville, Nieve has now thrown 105.2 IP, allowed 73 hits, walked 48 and struck out 109 with an ERA of 2.90. He will play at 20 years old for most of the 2003 season and should get a shot in Spring Training for a rotation spot in Lexington.
2002 stats: 4-1 W-L, 13 GS, 67.2 IP, 46 H, 18 ER, 27 BB, 60 K, 2.39 ERA
Tony Pluta – DOB: 10/28/82, Bats: R, Throws: R
After an incredibly promising debut with Lexington as an 18-year old, much good was foretold for Pluta in what was expected to be a breakout second campaign in low-A ball. However, an aversion to cold weather combined with the sub-freezing April temperatures in Michigan laid waste to the start of the year and it took months for Pluta to start getting untracked. Even so, he never really regained the form of 2001 much less improve on that performance. Yes, Pluta did have a nice stretch of the season where over 10 games he went 8-0 with two no-decisions and an ERA in the mid-3s. Compare that to his season ending ERA, though, and it will tell you just how disappointing his season was in the other 18 starts he made.
Tony possesses an absolute rocket for an arm; one that rivals any in the system and the key factor to watch in his development is his walk totals. In 2001, Pluta tossed 132.1 innings and walked 86, leading the Sally League. In 2002, Pluta worked 143 innings and walked 83, second most in the Midwest League. That’s not what anyone would call progress.
Until he can harness his natural ability, he’s likely going to continue to struggle. Keep in mind, though, that Pluta was still a teenager last year and will play all of 2003 as a 20-year old. There’s still plenty of time to work with this kind of special arm and I think Jimmy Barrett’s experience is something of a comp for Pluta. Like Jimmy showed last year, if Tony is able to find consistency he could well find himself rocketing upward in the club’s plans for the future.
Am sure there will some debate within the organization about where Pluta will be assigned next year and it seems most prudent to start him at Lexington for a third year of low-A ball. I can see him in Salem, though, if he has a nice Spring Training performance. If he dominates that level, he could then be moved up to Round Rock. If not and the inconsistency of 2002 repeats itself, worry begins to creep in. I have a sneaking suspicion, though, that Pluta is going to have a very fine season and his name is going to be prominently mentioned by most national publications in 2003.
2002 stats: 11-13 W-L, 28 GS, 143.0 IP, 155 H, 100 R, 94 ER, 83 BB, 120 K, 5.92 ERA
Chad Qualls – DOB: 8/17/78, Bats: R, Throws: R
Damn but this guy was frustrating to watch during the 2002 season at Round Rock. Rarely have I ever seen a pitcher who can dominate one moment and then out of nowhere just lose it, or start out looking completely lost and then magically find the ability to make hitters look like dolts. I don’t have the numbers to back this up but I’d be willing to consider a wager that in the 29 starts Qualls made last year he gave up 80% of his runs in fewer than 15-20 total innings.
It had to be a frustrating year for Qualls, as well. His W-L record is almost the mirror image of his rotation mate Nick Roberts despite Qualls actually out-pitching Roberts in most measures (H/IP, K/IP, HR/IP, etc.).
Chad clearly has the stuff to succeed in the majors. He works a tight little slider off of a very nasty low-90s sinker, a pitch that induces lots of ground balls. But he has to keep the ball low in the zone, otherwise his fastball is straight as an arrow and he’ll get beat all over the yard. Sent to the Arizona Fall League in 2002 to continue working on the mechanical consistency to keep the ball low in the zone, Qualls pretty much saw a repeat of his AA performance – dominant one moment, speed bag the next.
Am beginning to get the creeping suspicion that the ultimate destination for Qualls is the bullpen. I could very easily be wrong about that, though, and feel certain he’ll continue to get the opportunity to start and earn his way into the Houston rotation. But unless his finds more consistency it seems a stretch to think he’ll survive going through a major league batting order more than once or twice.
At age 24 for almost the whole of the 2003 season, Qualls is probably a candidate for a repeat season at Round Rock. Confidence gained by a successful second stint in AA would likely do wonders for him and put him back on track for a run at an Astro rotation spot in the near future.
2002 stats: 6-13 W-L, 29 GS, 163.0 IP, 174 H, 92 R, 79 ER, 67 BB, 142 K, 4.36 ERA
Nick Roberts – DOB: 11/6/76, Bats: R, Throws: R
Roberts is the kind of warrior organizational people just love to have in the system. He doesn’t have a single outstanding weapon but he battles like crazy and knows how to get the tough out. He’s not the ace of the staff but he eats innings and saves the bullpen.
Of course he has never done this sort of thing above the AA level and, at age 26, he’s not likely to be a starter for a top-flight rotation in the majors. Still, he might yet fashion a career as a swing-man or long-relief guy.
If he remains a starter, Roberts will most likely be bumped up to New Orleans next year. There are too many younger guns who need to pass the AA test.
2002 stats: 12-7 W-L, 172.0 IP, 195 H, 102 R, 83 ER, 42 BB, 98 K, 4.34 ERA
Levi Romero – DOB: 4/12/84, Bats: R, Throws: R
From the way on down the line vault a 6’6” kid who has a lot of projection but a long way to go from the Dominican League.
2002 stats: 4-1 W-L, 14 G, 13 GS, 73.1 IP, 64 H, 16 ER, 22 BB, 53 K, 1.96 ERA
Rodrigo Rosario – DOB: 12/14/77, Bats: R, Throws: R
During the first two months of 2002, Rosario was practically matching the amazing run of Kirk Saarloos at AA Round Rock prior to coming down with a stiff arm during July. He was never disabled for the injury but I don’t think he ever really got over it as he finished the season on an up or down note, never fully regaining consistency.
Rosario is a thin six-footer who, like many from his native Dominican Republic, whips the ball to the plate from a low, three-quarters arm angle. He is able to get the ball to the plate consistently in the low 90s and his ball runs very nicely. Right-handed hitters in particular had difficulty picking up his pitches. Rodrigo can use some work on his off-speed pitches and location but he clearly has the ability to miss bats and that bodes well for his chances in the future. Over the last two seasons, Rosario has thrown 277.1 innings and allowed only 211 hits with but 13 of those being HRs.
I worry some that Rosario’s arm may be worse off than the club is letting on. His strikeout rates dipped at the end of the Texas League season and he only threw three innings of winter ball in the Dominican, where he got blasted all over the yard and had very little control in his brief appearances. As someone with a 40-man roster spot, though, one can be assured that if there were anything diagnosable he’d have already gone under the knife.
Hopefully surgery will not be necessary and Rosario will return to health and form as soon as possible. If healthy, he could be a very important piece of insurance as he’s got the ability to be a quality pitcher on the major league level.
2002 stats: 11-6 W-L, 26 G, 23 GS, 130.1 IP, 106 H, 56 R, 45 ER, 59 BB, 94 K, 3.11 ERA
Manny Santillan – DOB: 8/20/79, Bats: R, Throws: R
Manny Santillan was eating the Sally League for lunch prior to coming down with an injury and having to shut it down for the remainder of the year.
Originally signed by the Astros as a catcher, the Dominican-born Santillan is not an overpowering pitcher but he’s not a pure junkballer, either. What he does is throw strikes while getting good movement on the ball so hitters don’t get many good swings off of him. In two years with Lexington, Santillan has thrown 192.2 innings and allowed only 156 hits.
Long-term I don’t know if Manny is a candidate for a rotation spot in Houston but if he returns healthy next year, he’s a good candidate for the rotation in Salem and eventually he’s got the potential to be a solid bullpen guy.
2002 stats: 5-5 W-L, 14 G, 14 GS, 96.0 IP, 73 H, 22 ER, 28 BB, 76 K, 2.06 ERA
Rory Shortell – DOB: 6/3/81, Bats: R, Throws: R
The third round selection of the Houston Astros in the 2002 draft, Shortell threw college ball for San Diego State University and was originally selected out of high school by the Boston Red Sox in the fourth round of the 1999 draft. The moratorium on signing high draft choices, which was later retracted by McLane after the threat of a player strike fell by the wayside, caused Shortell to be signed too late to throw in the system during 2002.
Shortell has been described by Astro staff as reminiscent of a young Shane Reynolds, a guy with very good control and major league stuff. He’s also somewhat like Reynolds in that he is solidly put together and one of his hobbies is working out consistently. Particularly of note is his leg strength.
Rory’s college coaches noted his lack of fear about coming inside on hitters, despite the goofy bats they use in NCAA games, and that bodes well for a young pitcher. Shortell also has a 92-93 MPH fastball that has alternately been described as “exploding” or being “heavy”, scout-speak for being “difficult to get good wood on”. It’s also somewhat interesting to note that Rory’s mother and father were both competitive basketball players, his mother on the collegiate level (St. John’s) and his father on the semi-pro level.
I would imagine Shortell will get his first assignment with Salem and I expect that of the pitching selected by Houston in this past draft, he will be the quickest to move up the ladder.
2002 stats: did not play professional baseball
Ernnie Sinclair – DOB: 4/2/80, Bats: R, Throws: R
Nicaraguan-born Sinclair followed up a ho-hum season with Pittsfield in 2001 with an All-Star campaign with Lexington in 2002.
Another slightly built right-hander in the system, Sinclair is not in the class of gas with a lot of the other guys but he is deceptive and has a good feel for pitching. I’ve talked with some folks who have divergent opinions of Sinclair, one says he thinks Ernnie has room for physical development and may eventually have an above-average fastball. The other is not so optimistic. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Sinclair will play all of next season as a 22-year old and is likely to join the Salem staff.
2002 stats: 9-3 W-L, 25 G, 19 GS, 122.2 IP, 112 H, 46 ER, 47 BB, 109 K, 3.38 ERA
Robert Stiehl – DOB: 12/9/80, Bats: R, Throws: R
Stiehl is a major wild card whose emergence could vault the Astros from having very good depth in young pitching to an embarrassment of riches. The former first round selection of the Astros in the 2000 draft tore up lower level hitters with his mid-to-upper 90s fastball and emerging curve (33 H, 79 K, 60.1 IP) prior to coming down with a career-threatening shoulder injury in 2001 which required major surgery and cost him the entire 2002 season.
The good news is that Stiehl has been given the thumbs up to throw again and was at the Astros’ complex in Kissimmee during the FIL season, though he did not participate with the rest of the group as he was there primarily to rehab. He is expected to be cleared to compete come Spring Training and will likely receive an assignment to Lexington unless he proves capable of handling a higher classification.
Health and a return of his FB are the primary focus for 2003. Beyond those issues and the question of his ultimately being a starter or reliever, Stiehl needs to work on control and stamina.
2002 stats: did not play professional baseball
Mitch Talbot – DOB: 10/17/83, Bats: R, Throws: R
Mitch Talbot is a guy who went from being nowhere on the scouting map after his junior year of high school to someone possessing one of the best HS arms in the country by the end of his senior campaign. Selected in the second round by the Astros, Talbot was nearly lost when Houston found out it was only days instead of a month until he was going to begin classes at Dixie Junior College (home of fellow Astro draftee and DFE candidate, OF Tyson Olson). The scramble was on and the deal was struck though the lateness of it prevented Talbot from pitching this past season.
Talbot has exceptional arm speed and a nice, compact motion that does not look to pose much of a threat of strain on his arm. He’s also somewhat physically immature given reports that he’s probably closer to 165 pounds on a 6’1” frame than his listed 6’2” and 175 pounds so it’ll be interesting to see what impact this has on him over the next couple of years.
His fastball is very, very lively and sits in the 93 MPH range and his curveball approaches true Lord Charles status as it has solid depth to it. But we must remember that this is a kid who just turned 19 and does not have a gob of experience. Reports from the FIL were that Talbot was very impressive, however given that the Astros aren’t noted for aggressiveness in promoting pitchers unless they simply blow people away, it seems most probable Mitch will report to Tri-City in 2003.
2002 stats: did not play professional baseball
RELIEVERS:
Juan Campos – DOB: 3/28/80, Bats: R, Throws: R
The Astros tried in 2001 to convert Campos into a starter but the experiment did not go as well as planned and Campos returned to the bullpen in 2002 where he, arguably, had the finest season of any bullpen member in the organization. Prior to the political turmoil in Venezuela, Campos was also tearing up the winter league there with a 2.50 ERA in 36 IP with 33 Ks and only 9 BBs.
Campos has raised his arm level, going from side-arm to more of a three-quarters delivery, and it has not affected his performance one bit. He still brings the ball in the 90-92 range and his pitches run pretty well (in on lefties, away from righties), inducing lots of swing-and-misses or weak ground balls. He allowed only 1 home run all season.
Juan will likely join the Salem squad as its closer in 2003.
2002 stats: 5-2 W-L, 40 G, 65.0 IP, 53 H, 15 ER, 9 BB, 68 K, 9 SV, 2.08 ERA
J.P. Duran – DOB: 9/13/79, Bats: R, Throws: R
Pocket-sized righty selected in the sixth round from St. Mary’s of San Antonio is best known for a hellacious curveball. He also has a slightly above average fastball.
If Duran is going to move in the system, he’s probably going to have to do so from the bullpen. To my knowledge he’s never been a starter and at 23 he’s not likely to be converted. Will probably go from Tri-City to Lexington.
2002 stats: 1-2 W-L, 20 G, 31.0 IP, 24 H, 16 ER, 21 BB, 30 K, 4.65 ERA
Jared Gothreaux – DOB: 1/27/80, Bats: R, Throws: R
A starter in college at McNeese State, Gothreaux thrived in his first exposure to the bullpen at Tri-City and without question had the best debut of any 2002 Astro draftee.
Gothreaux has quite often been compared physically and in his approach to pitching with Jeff Brantley. Jared is likely to make the jump from Tri-City to Lexington in 2003.
2002 stats: 2-3 W-L, 28 G, 46.1 IP, 55 H, 14 ER, 12 BB, 53 K, 2.72 ERA
Darwin Peguero – DOB: 12/5/78, Bats: L, Throws: L
He began his career in the system as a starter but Peguero just doesn’t have enough stuff to remain in that role. Eventually he might prove useful as a situational lefty and he’s had some success this winter.
Likely bound for another tour of duty with Round Rock or a bump up to New Orleans.
2002 stats: 3-2 W-L, 54 G, 60.1 IP, 66 H, 30 ER, 28 BB, 41 K, 4.48 ERA
Santiago Ramirez – DOB: 8/15/78, Bats: R, Throws: R
OK, anyone with a kid under the age of 12 is likely to have seen the movie “A Bug’s Life”. In the movie is a pair of doodle bugs that perform in a bug circus. Nobody can understand a damn thing the pair says but they move quickly, talk quickly, gesticulate wildly and are rather amusing. Santiago Ramirez and Miguel Saladin of the 2002 Round Rock Express remind me of those doodle bugs and they were every bit as entertaining.
Ramirez is the better prospect of the two, primarily because of being three years younger, but both guys throw in the low-90s and are combative as all hell. I expect Ramirez to start the year in New Orleans but can easily see him joining the Astro bullpen early in the season.
2002 stats (RRE): 5-2 W-L, 33 G, 63.1 IP, 45 H, 18 ER, 26 BB, 73 K, 2.56 ERA
2002 stats (NOZ): 2-0 W-L, 18 G, 21.1 IP, 17 H, 8 ER, 11 BB, 15 K, 3.38 ERA
Jeriome Robertson – DOB: 3/30/77, Bats: L, Throws: L
Once a promising lefty starter whose fortune was thrown off track by a pain in the ass (literally), Robertson completely resurrected his career with New Orleans in 2002.
Robertson does not throw all that hard but he clearly fits the stereotype of “crafty left-hander”. While he may get an opportunity to crack the rotation in Spring, I just can’t see him staying in that role. He seems more suited to a situational lefty coming in to retire the likes of Barry Bonds, Adam Dunn or Jim Edmonds in a pinch.
2002 stats: 12-8 W-L, 27 G, 27 GS, 180.0 IP, 160 H, 51 ER, 45 BB, 114 K, 2.55 ERA
Miguel Saladin – DOB: 5/22/75, Bats: R, Throws: R
(See Santiago Ramirez.)
2002 stats: 4-5 W-L, 53 G, 56.2 IP, 36 H, 13 ER, 25 BB, 46 K, 24 SV, 2.06 ERA
Well, there you have it friends, the most comprehensive list of reports on minor league prospects in the Houston Astro system ever foolishly attempted and exhaustingly compiled by Minor Opinions. Hopefully readers have found it entertaining and somewhat instructive.
Now on to the contest! Once again, readers will be challenged to put together their own 2003 Top 10 lists from the above slew of prospects. Send your own numerically ordered list to [email protected] if you wish to enter the contest. The person correctly identifying the most names on the list, regardless of order, will be judged the winner. In case of multiple entries correctly identifying the greatest number of names on the final Minor Opinions list, a comparison of contestant lists with the final MO list will break the tie. The entry most closely following the MO list starting from #1 and descending to #10 will emerge from the tie as the contest victor.
The Minor Opinions Top 10 list will be revealed on February 3, as will the name of the contest champ. Best of luck to all who enter the contest.