Owner Drayton McLane and general manager Gerry Hunsicker gave Astros fans an early Christmas gift this offseason. Houston free-agent signings typically feature such hot commodities as Kent Bottenfield, Tripp Cromer, Alex Diaz, Doc Gooden, Jack Howell, Pete Incaviglia, T. J. Mathews, Mike Maddux and the inestimable Dave Clark. These lumps of coal have been pushed aside by the acquisition of 2000 National League Most Valuable Player Jeff Kent.
Elation was my initial feeling. For the first time in more than two decades, the Astros had made the free-agent move of the offseason, and at a relative bargain for about $9 million per year. No more being content with signing journeymen middle relievers, part-time infielders, spare-part outfielders and marginal back-of-the-rotation starters.
Elation grew into ambivalence. Craig Biggio is the franchise second baseman. Kent apparently was not going to play third base as originally reported on the Astros and MLB Web pages. Biggio apparently was headed to the outfield to make room for Kent at the keystone. Sure, Kent, who turns 35 in March, is the better player at this point in their careers, but the 37-year-old Biggio’s pedigree is as storied as Kent’s, and someone of Biggio’s stature does not get moved around like a bush-leaguer trying to find a place to break into the Show.
Besides, Biggio was at least as good a hitter as the average National League second baseman last season. Move him, and his offense is suspect compared to his outfield peers:
Player Avg OBP Slg ------------------------ Biggio .253 .330 .404 Avg 2B .271 .332 .391 Avg LF .278 .370 .469 Avg CF .264 .334 .420
Meanwhile, Kent would still be a stud at the plate among third basemen:
Player Avg OBP Slg ------------------------ Kent .313 .368 .565 Avg 3B .260 .326 .407
Ambivalence gave way to optimism. Biggio, who was reportedly out of contact on a hunting trip when Kent’s signing was announced, said all the right things to the media the next day. Maybe he is genuinely pleased to have another star in the line-up. Maybe he was just being classy. But Biggio has given the impression that he will accept his move with grace and professionalism.
Moreover, maybe this move will work for the Astros. Hunsicker explained that he and Kent are skeptical of Kent’s glovework at third base. Hunsicker was in the Mets front office when Kent played in New York and tried his hand at the hot corner. In 157 career games at the position, Kent has been unusually error-prone with a .925 fielding percentage. The league average was .949 during Kent’s time there.
Additionally, Hunsicker and Biggio both appear optimistic that Biggio can make the transition to the outfield. Biggio’s wheels may be slower than they used to be, but he is still likely able to cover more ground than Lance Berkman, who played 122 games in center field last season. As a bonus, Hunsicker has made statements indicating that the Astros have stopped pursuing a “true” center fielder, meaning no more speculation on Coors-inflated offal like Jay Payton and Juan Pierre.
Anyway, the risks of roster moves are not determined by the league average at a position. They are based on the personnel on hand. Thus, the difference between Kent at second/Biggio in the outfield and Biggio at second/Kent at third may be measured, offensively, by comparing two players: Daryle Ward and Geoff Blum. Biggio’s move to the outfield almost certainly bumps Ward out of position and perhaps off the club. Kent’s insertion at third base would have sent Blum packing.
Last season, Blum was the more valuable commodity:
Player Avg OBP Slg ------------------------ Blum .283 .367 .440 Ward .276 .324 .424
Blum, who turns 30 in April, is a career utility player who had his finest season in 2002. A repeat is a lot to ask. On the other hand, Ward, who turns 28 in June, has failed in more than 1,000 career at-bats to show the average and power that made him so formidable in the minors. While Blum was never a prospect, the memory of Ward as one is fading quickly. Ward still has more upside, but he may have to realize it in another uniform.
Besides Blum at third base, the Astros still have Morgan Ensberg, who, despite his middling .242/.346/.394 performance in 132 at-bats in the majors, played relatively well at AAA New Orleans at .288/.401/.421. Given another opportunity, he may yet become Houston’s full-time third baseman.
But Biggio’s shift not only displaces Ward, it also squeezes the rest of an already crowded outfield. Obviously Berkman and Biggio are likely to play regularly. Besides Ward, the Astros have veterans Orlando Merced and Brian Hunter as well as the pricey and disappointing Richard Hidalgo, who has reportedly lost weight this offseason but suffered muscle and nerve damage to his left arm from a gunshot wound during a carjacking in his native Venezuela in November.
Furthermore, Jason Lane is still waiting in New Orleans. Lane’s .272/.328/.472 season in AAA was capped by a fine .290/.375/.536 performance in a brief 69 at-bats with the Astros. Before getting too giddy, bear in mind the tyranny of sample size.
Perhaps the greatest likelihood is that Ward will be traded for pitching to a team that can use him full-time at first base, designated hitter or left field, Berkman and Biggio will occupy left and center and a slimmer, hungrier Hidalgo will remain in right, with Merced the back-up at the corners and Hunter the substitute up the middle.
And Lane will spend another year in New Orleans. At 26, Lane needs the Astros to find a place for him soon. He spent the vast majority of his innings in right field for the Astros late last season and for the time being is an insurance policy if Hidalgo continues to struggle or the Astros find a way to unload Hidalgo’s contract.
Indeed, the effect on Lane’s playing time is the downside here. Without Biggio’s arrival from the infield, the Astros could test their quartet of young outfielders: Ward in left, Berkman in left or center, Hidalgo in center or right and Lane in any of the three positions. Kent to second and Biggio to the outfield limits Houston’s freedom to see what works and, more important, to give Lane his first real chance and Ward his last real chance with the Astros.
Of course, this assumes that The Inexplicable One, manager Jimy Williams, would let such an experiment run its course. Even with Biggio in the outfield, it will be enough to see if Williams refrains from making second base, third base, left field and center field a game of musical chairs. Giving Biggio a few more days off to spell his aging legs and reconstructed knee is one thing. Juggling professional ballplayers all over the diamond on a frequent basis is something else.
What the signing really boils down to is replacing Ward’s bat with Kent’s in the line-up, replacing Biggio’s defense with Kent’s at second base, replacing Ward’s defense with Berkman’s in left field and replacing Berkman’s defense with Biggio’s in center field. The latter three are presumed to be a plus. But how much does Kent add to the line-up? Based on 2002 performances, in the same number of outs, Kent was worth about 50 more runs that Ward. That’s roughly five wins in the standings.
Biggio’s current contract expires after next season. If Biggio returns to something approaching his .292/.382/.455 performance in 2001, he will be more than adequate offensively to justify his place in the outfield. Albeit a far cry from Biggio’s numbers in his best days, those averages are better than what the Astros would likely get from a center fielder via free agency or trade. The Astros would almost certainly be willing to give him a couple more years at a reasonable salary.
If Biggio cannot improve on his disappointing 2002 performance, then he is no longer viable as a big-league starter. In that case, he might retire, return to the Astros more cheaply with an understanding that he will no longer play full time or, sadly, finish his career elsewhere.
But if Kent pushes the club over the hump, Biggio and Astros fans should be thrilled. Biggio says he wants to win. Some doubt his sincerity, speculating that his ego is more dominant than his will to victory. Having watched how Biggio conducts himself on the field for 15 years, I believe he would take a job as clubhouse assistant or groundskeeper if it meant a chance to be part of a champion.