By Michael N
November 25, 2002
While doing some research in putting together the Minor Opinions list of top Houston Astro prospects for 2003, it became clear to me that the Astro system is not quite in the shape it was, say, two, three or four years ago. That’s not to say the system is in poor shape – far from it. However there is not the same level of star-caliber talent in the upper minors as in the recent past.
The Astros under Gerry Hunsicker and Tim Purpura are noted far and wide in baseball circles for being something of development gurus, so why is the talent flow slowing a bit? In doing the research it seems as though the answer can be broken down into two, possibly three, distinct causes:
The first culprit is that the draft classes of 1998 and 1999 have turned out to be less than productive. No player selected in those years has made himself into a bona fide major leaguer and, by my reckoning, of the combined 82 players selected in those drafts there are only 5 players who remain with the Astros and stand a decent chance at a good major league career (for clarification, by good career I mean being counted on as a frontline player for at least a couple of seasons). That’s a wholly unimpressive record by Astro standards. Especially so when looking further at the list of draftees it seems as though there are only a handful of other players who stand even a fraction of a chance at ever seeing the major leagues.
From the 1998 draft, the players identified with a chance at a good career are RHP Brad Lidge (#1), C John Buck (#7) and 3B Morgan Ensberg (#9). They are joined by two players from the 1999 draft, RHP Jimmy Barrett (#3) and OF Jason Lane (#7). Unfortunately none of these players stand out as likely superstars. All of them have fundamental questions such as health (Lidge), advanced age (Ensberg) or other stumbling blocks preventing such gushing anticipation at their arrival on the big stage as was seen when Billy Wagner, Scott Elarton, Wade Miller, Lance Berkman or Roy Oswalt joined the big club. This is a somewhat troubling development when a franchise such as Houston depends so heavily on development instead of free agent acquisitions and/or high roller wheeling and dealing.
The second contributing cause is that punitive dinosaur known as the Rule 5 draft. In each of the last 3 off-seasons, Houston has been victimized by this arcane practice that, in effect, punishes organizations committed to the development of young players. Twice in last three Rule 5 drafts Houston has lost a solid middle infield prospect (SS Donaldo Mendez and 2B Felix Escalona) and there’s a good reason why those kids were taken – middle infield is an area of weakness throughout baseball. Having those two still in the system would give Houston a pair of options for the big club or they would serve as quality trade bait. Instead, Houston lost them for a pittance.
But the biggest Rule 5 loss is clearly that of LHP Johan Santana. It can be argued Santana’s development would not have been as quick had he remained in the minor leagues as an Astro prospect instead of in the majors with Minnesota, but there’s absolutely no argument to be made that Houston suffered no loss when he was stolen from the organization. Houston’s system is woefully short of left-handed hurlers and Santana, who turns 24 in March ’03, has made himself into one of the brightest young lefties in the American League. His loss is a huge body blow to the organization.
A third rationale for the Astro bounty seemingly drying up could be that the team is something of a victim of its own success. Beyond the thievery via Rule 5, Houston has worked quite a lot of young players up the ladder over the last 3-4 years. Most of those have gone on to become more than acceptable performers with a trio of the kids becoming out-and-out stars in Houston. Others developed by Houston in that timeframe have gone on to star for other teams in baseball, notably Freddy Garcia. Not many teams can boast such a record of internal development in the recent past.
I’m not accustomed to writing such a dire tome for MO so I’ll end with something a bit more cheerful. There is reason to be optimistic for the long-term future even if one accepts a muddled view of the immediate. There are 7 players from the 2000 draft still on track for good careers in MLB and that number rises to 8 if Robert Stiehl recovers from his injury. Of course it’s still far too early to judge the 2001 crop but that group is off to a roaring start with the meteoric rise of RHP Kirk Saarloos.
The best news of all, though, is that the most recent class of Latin Academy grads is of heady vintage. If the group headed by C Hector Gimenez, and followed by the crew that made up most of the Martinsville squad in 2002, continues their successful rise through the system, this current (and I grant, perceived) shortage of help in the immediate future may be but a hiccup in the Astro restocking effort.