By Michael N
November 18, 2002
Introduction
The 2002 Houston Astros draft, without question, was dominated by pitching selections as 14 of the first 20 selections by the Astros were pitchers. Further, of the 15 draftees actually inked to contracts from the top 20 selections, 11 were pitchers. After round 20, though, Houston primarily concentrated on filling out the minor league rosters with college seniors who are position players. This is not to say these guys can’t play but the intent in drafting guys like 1B Andrew Salmela (31st) and OF Adam Seuss (36th) was clearly to make sure there was enough depth to field a team in Tri-City.
Why the concentration on pitching this year? I think the answer has to be seen from a couple of different angles: 1) Houston has developed a draft philosophy which leans heavily toward power arms and college hitters. As the 2002 draft was universally seen as light on college hitting and somewhat deep in arms, it made sense to collect arms as the best of the college hitting was gone by the time Houston’s turn to select came up. 2) The Latin Academies provided an unusually large number of talented young hitters who were granted visas to play ball in the United States for the first time this season. (As a side note: I believe this to be part of the Astros’ new emphasis on speeding the progress of Latin prospects to hopefully stem the annual Rule 5 rip-off of Astro talent).
The Draftees:
Looking at the crop of arms selected, Houston loaded up on some very raw young throwers and guys who have not faced stiff competition. 8 of the 11 pitchers from the top 20 selections played at the high school, junior college or small college level. But among them RHP Derick Grigsby (#1 – Northeast Texas CC), RHP Mitch Talbot (#2 – Canyon View HS, UT), and RHP JP Duran (#6 – St. Mary?s University) can all hit the mid-90s while RHP Chance Douglass (#12 – Canyon Randall HS, TX) sits in the 92-94 MPH range.
A couple of intriguing draftees were not signed by Houston. OF/1B/C Scott Robinson (#7 – Rancho Bernardo HS, CA) is a smooth left-handed hitter who also happens to be functionally ambidextrous. By that I mean he not only can write both left and right handed, he can also throw with either hand. After refusing Houston’s early contract offer, Robinson spent the fall ripping up the wood bat Alaskan League, eventually earning team MVP honors for the league champions. He received a second offer from the Astros but by then, it was too late, as the Robinson family is convinced Scott will increase his draft standing, so he spurned a scholarship to San Diego State and will attend Palomar Junior College to retain his draft eligibility for next year.
Houston still controls Robinson’s rights up to one week prior to the 2003 draft. But my understanding is that it will take a good chunk of change to get Robinson to ink any pre-draft deal.
Brad Chedister (#10 – Panola JC, TX) is a big, raw RHP who hit the upper 90s in front of some scouts. He has since attended classes at Louisiana Tech and thus Houston has lost their rights to sign him.
With the threat of a strike looming, Mr. McLane imposed a moratorium this summer on signing draft picks which, when ultimately reversed, delayed the signing of the top three picks in the 2002 draft: Grigsby, Talbot and RHP Rory Shortell (#3 – San Diego State). The delay prevented any of the three from seeing action as professionals this year. Each, however, did report to Instructional League and I’ll have information on them later in this column.
As for those signees who did debut this year, it wasn’t a pretty picture. The Tri-City team, composed mostly of the late college draftees from ’02, was a disaster in the franchise’s inaugural season with a dismal record of 27-48. The team finished second to last in the overall standings as well as in pitching stats while they tied for dead last in hitting.
Quite frankly, no one from the 2002 draft who participated with the Astros’ NY-Penn League affiliate acquited himself in an outstanding manner on the field – especially among the hitters. The best hitter, in terms of statistical performance, was catcher Randy McGarvey (#26 – Coastal Carolina) who hit all of .259/.362/.296 in 104 ABs and is more known for his defensive ability. Players like OF Jason Reuss (#11 – UNLV), 3B/OF Nick Covarrubias (#13 – Long Beach State) and 3B Pat Peavey (#33 – Santa Clara) each have some interesting skills which may one day translate to success on the field, but these skills have been noted for years with no big results. Honestly, it’d be a surprise to me if any of the drafted hitters from 2002 makes much of an impression in MLB based on early returns.
Turning to the pitchers at Tri-City, RHP Jared Gothreaux (#16 – McNeese State), a starter in college, is being groomed as a reliever and punched out 53 batters in 46.1 IP while walking only 12. Gothreaux has 90-91 MPH fastball and a pretty nasty slider. More than once I’ve read him being compared to Jeff Brantley. His was probably the best debut for Tri-City. RHP JP Duran is a raw talent with a big arm. He joined Gothreaux in the bullpen and struck out 30 in 31 IP but also walked 21 batters. Other high-round selections, LHP Mark McLemore (#4 – Oregon State) and RHP Billy Westhoff (#8 – University of Dallas) basically got their butts handed to them.
But, again, all of these guys have live arms and the Astros do have a well-earned reputation for developing arms so patience should be employed.
The Martinsville squad in the Appalachian League fared much better than Tri-City but was not nearly as heavily populated with 2002 draftees. In fact only 8 members of that draft class spent the majority of the year in M’ville. Of those 8, clearly the best debut came from RHP Daniel Freeman (17th – Texarkana CC). Freeman isn’t overpowering but he gets good location on his upper-80s fastball and very solid curve. Moved to the bullpen he appeared in 20 games, went 9-1 with 6 saves, 50 Ks in 46.2 IP with only 18 walks. Take most of this with a grain of salt as it is work from the bully but it is solid work upon which to build.
Nobody else from the 2002 class really stood out from the Martinsville squad and while this report singles out only a few names for performance, it should be noted that the top 3 picks from 2002 did not play and several of the others who actually did sign in time to play are clearly projects. To this point, the measurable return on the 2002 draft for the Astros is not very good. But it’s very early and fans should have a better grasp of the success or failure of this particular draft over the next couple of seasons.
Instructional League:
Grigsby, Talbot and Shortell all reported to Instructional League in Florida. Unfortunately, Grigsby did not stay all that long as his father was involved in a nasty motorcycle accident. This is barely a year removed from Derick’s mother passing away but, thankfully, Mr. Grigsby survived. Derick has been on an emotional roller-coaster for a while now what with family health problems and the signing moratorium. Hopefully he recovers a stronger person.
By reports, Talbot and Shortell were both very impressive. Talbot shows a very quick arm and is still maturing physically. Am not certain where he’ll be sent next year but my best guess is Tri-City as I think he’ll be babied somewhat. Shortell, on the other hand, is far more polished and could be the one 2002 draftee who moves quickly through the organization. He possesses a solid 92-93 MPH fastball and good command.
Familiar names such as Chris Burke, Mike Rodriguez, Charlton Jimerson and Tony Pluta also went to the FIL to work on their games but there are a few other folks I’d like to discuss as they are either new to most readers or have not been discussed much.
Matt Albers was originally drafted in the 23rd round of the 2001 draft from Sugarland Clements HS. He signed as a DFE player after a year at San Jacinto Junior College and is now another in the ever-lengthening list of relatively short RHP with flame-thrower arms in the Astro chain. The 6′ Albers can get the ball in the mid-90s with very quick arm action and good life. This past season he worked for Martinsville and struck out 72 batters in 59.2 IP. He also walked too many and allowed too many hits but, again, we’re talking about a lot of potential here in a kid who does not turn 20 until January. He could be a surprise addition to the Lexington squad next year with a good Spring Training but smart money says he will join Tri-City.
5’11” Ronnie Martinez falls right in line with Albers on that aforementioned pitcher’s list. The Dominican native ate the DSL alive this year, posting a 6-1 record in 15 starts. He threw 84.1 innings, allowed only 64 hits (0 homers), struck out 91, walked 19 and finished with a 1.17 ERA. Andres Reiner told me to keep an eye on this kid and Mr. Reiner is very rarely off-base in his recommendations, so I think I’ll do as he says. Martinez does not turn 20 until this summer (if his birth certificate is authentic). I’d expect he will play for Martinsville or Tri-City next year.
OF Freddy Acevedo is a very gifted athlete and extremely strong. At 6’2″, 210, he’s a natural right-fielder with a strong arm. He led the Martinsville team this year in HR (9) and RBI (44) while swiping 11 bases in 12 tries. But he also, by far, led the team in Ks with 67 in 208 ABs. Freddy will play most of 2003 as a 21-year old and so if his control of the strikezone can be enhanced (or found) over the next couple of years he’ll definitely be someone to watch.
Arizona Fall League:
Sorry to do this but I should lead with some bad news. RHP Tom Shearn left the Mesa squad with elbow trouble and he will have corrective surgery in the near future. This is crappy news for a guy who has soldiered well in the Astro system since 1996 and looked to be heading to ST this year with his best chance at making the major league squad. Best of luck to him and wishes for a speedy recovery.
LHP Mike Gallo took Shearn’s spot on the Mesa roster. He’s performed well to this point but I don’t think he’s much of a prospect. Gallo throws slop and is another example of why so many Dads duct-tape the right arms of their male offspring to their sides during infancy.
RHP Chad Qualls is at Mesa working on consistency in his mechanics. I have no report on how successful he’s been in that effort but his last outing (11/17) was, by far, his best showing. Qualls went 5 innings, allowing only 2 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks and he punched out 6. He has had some shaky outings and walked far too many batters early in the AFL season but the organization is very, very high on this kid’s arm.
OF Mike Hill started the season with Mesa like a house afire, spraying doubles all over the desert. He’s since come down to earth and is putting up predictable numbers – not horrible enough to warrant his release but not quite good enough to make him a legit prospect. Hill has some good skills but in my opinion just does not make enough consistent contact to be a regular in major league baseball. He will be 26 years old next season and time is rapidly running out for him to make me look bad.
C John Buck continues to earn rave reviews for his defense and his handling of pitchers. Unfortunately, his bat continues to get mixed reviews. The numbers just simply aren’t there to support what is seen with the eye when this kid is swinging well and making contact. Perhaps he’s wiped out from a steady dose of play in the Texas League and in Arizona, I dunno. But I wonder now if the organization might be thinking a repeat in Round Rock might be good for him instead of a promotion to New Orleans?
SS Tommy Whiteman is turning some heads, friends. Many have questioned his ability to remain a SS on the major league level but his play with the glove in Arizona indicates he’s more than capable of holding down that job. He’s shown a good first step, good instincts, a take-charge attitude in the middle of the diamond and a more than adequate arm.
Another possible development is Whiteman looks to have shortened his stroke a bit at the plate. I don’t know when this happened but from photographs I’ve seen, as well as a conversation with someone who saw him during 2001 at Lexington and in the AFL this year, it seems as though he has done so. I can only suppose this was done to help cut down on Ks and allow him to use his natural strength to continue hitting for power. The results from Arizona (and late in the 2002 season at Lexington if that is where the change originated) indicate the change has been something of a success in that Whiteman continues to cut down on the Ks and is hitting .326/.381/.474 to date. Were he not a handful of plate appearances short, he’d be among the AFL leaderboard in multiple offensive categories.
Winter Leagues:
It’s really too early to do much reporting on the winter league but I will throw out some tidbits:
Royce Huffman is really struggling at Magallanes. He is hitting .218 and striking out far more often than usual (20K/87AB).
Jason Lane is also struggling in Venezuela (Caracas), though he’s had far fewer appearances. After a 3-5 mark in his debut this year, he’s had one hit in his last 13 ABs.
Juan Campos is the star of the organization so far in winter league play. Campos played at Michigan last year and is now with Huffman at Magallanes. In 8 games he’s made 3 starts and closed 2 games. During those appearances he’s been on the mound for 24 innings, allowing 19 hits and 6 walks while striking out 24. He has an ERA of 1.88 and a record of 1-0.