Roaring back into the division race, the Astros have minted a 26-13 record since the beginning of July and a 22-11 mark after the All-Star break. The club has rediscovered itself at the plate and on the mound.
The first three months of the season, the offense averaged 4.58 runs per game. Since July 1, the Astros have scored 5.03 runs per game. Meanwhile, the pitching staff allowed a 4.36 ERA in April, May, and June. In July and August, the club’s ERA is 3.68. Improvement has come in virtually all categories:
Batting R/G Avg OBP Slg ------------------------------------- Before July 1 4.58 .258 .337 .410 Since July 1 5.03 .267 .340 .426
Pitching ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 ------------------------------------------- Before July 1 4.36 9.09 1.13 3.62 7.36 Since July 1 3.68 8.56 0.80 3.06 7.87
Put another way, consider the Astros vs. their opponents before and since the beginning of July:
Before July 1 R/G Avg OBP Slg -------------------------------------- Astros 4.58 .258 .337 .410 Opponents 4.63 .265 .336 .431
Since July 1 R/G Avg OBP Slg -------------------------------------- Astros 5.03 .267 .340 .426 Opponents 3.97 .252 .321 .390
This has been a team effort. The pitching, which was decent in the season’s first three months, has been superb, while the offense has recovered from its first-half drought.
Driving the offensive renaissance are the individual turnarounds of Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. Consider the differences before and since July 1 for the two of them:
Bagwell Avg OBP Slg RC/27 -------------------------------------- Before July 1 .259 .370 .461 5.99 Since July 1 .339 .459 .606 10.40
Biggio Avg OBP Slg RC/27 -------------------------------------- Before July 1 .243 .336 .377 4.52 Since July 1 .304 .356 .493 6.75
The resurgence of Bagwell and Biggio has taken up some of the slack as Lance Berkman has seen his power drop. Before July 1, Berkman batted .282/.402/.599. Since July 1, his .301/.417/.534 performance has seen a rise in his batting average and OBP but a decline in his slugging percentage.
On either side of Berkman are two players moving in different directions. Maybe Daryle Ward disliked the prospect of the trading block. His OBP and slugging percentage have jumped since the beginning of July:
Ward Avg OBP Slg ------------------------------- Before July 1 .277 .310 .391 Since July 1 .280 .369 .514
While Ward has stepped up, Richard Hidalgo has fallen off a cliff. His decent start to the season has been followed by an absolutely wretched performance since July 1:
Hidalgo Avg OBP Slg ------------------------------- Before July 1 .268 .354 .482 Since July 1 .141 .218 .207
At this point Hidalgo is lucky to start even every once in awhile. At least Hidalgo has confined his implosion to just half the season. Gregg Zaun, who replaced Tony Eusebio as the club’s back-up catcher, has been a train wreck, batting just .207/.266/.297. Meanwhile, Brad Ausmus (.266/.333/.376) has been nothing special at the plate.
Not to be overlooked are three insurance policies that have paid off this season. Merced (.314/.374/.491) Jose Vizcaino (.313/.351/.390), and Geoff Blum (.285/.369/.449) have all seen more playing time than they probably expected when the season opened. Each of them has earned it. Whether the 35-year-old Merced and 36-year-old Vizcaino can repeat their unlikely 2002 performances is questionable, but the Astros recently signed them to contract extensions anyway.
Since taking over as the full-time third baseman from Morgan Ensberg on May 29, Blum has batted .311/.388/.500. Consider this comparison:
2002 Season Avg OBP Slg ------------------------------------ Inexpensive Player .285 .369 .449 Expensive Player .259 .359 .475
Granted, Inexpensive Player has only 60 percent as many plate appearances and is having a career season, while Expensive Player is a Gold Glove fielder having an off-year. Nonetheless, just for the 2002 division race, the Astros are getting at least as good a deal on Blum as the Cardinals are on Scott Rolen, particularly when you consider that Rolen in trade came at a cost in talent.
Despite the accolades showered on him for his defensive improvement, Julio Lugo was just mediocre at the plate before his season-ending injury (.261/.322/.388), about the same as last year (.263/.326/.372).
In the rotation, the Astros have inexplicably benefited from the services of Kirk Saarloos and Pete Munro, who have together started a third of the club’s games since July 1, posting a collective 8-2 record and 2.82 ERA and allowing 9.20 hits, 0.61 home runs, and 1.47 walks per nine innings.
Indeed, in July and August Saarloos has allowed just three home runs and one walk in 31-1/3 innings pitched. His strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span is an eye-popping 22-to-1. This ride soon comes to an end, since the Astros have decided to replace Munro rather than Dave Mlicki with Carlos Hernandez, who is returning to the rotation from the disabled list. In the meantime, Saarloos and Munro have compensated nicely for injuries to Shane Reynolds, Hernandez, and Mlicki.
Meanwhile, the two horses, Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, have fulfilled their expectations. Excluding his rough April and May, which ended with a trip to the disabled list, Miller is 10-1 with a 3.09 ERA this season, including a 7-0 mark with a 2.77 ERA since July 1. Oswalt has been fine all season at 14-6 with a 3.20 ERA, and has been even sharper, 6-1 with a 3.13 ERA, since the beginning of July.
Combined, Oswalt, Miller, Saarloos, and Munro have started 29 of the Astros’ 39 games since July 1, posting a 21-3 record and a 2.90 ERA in 176-2/3 innings pitched, allowing 8.56 hits, 0.76 home runs, and 2.50 walks and striking out 6.93 batters per nine innings.
The Astros have squeezed starts out of Dave Mlicki and Tim Redding since July 1, both with disastrous consequences. After a 3.90 ERA in his first 10 starts, Mlicki has posted a 9.00 ERA in his last four trips to the hill, pitching just 14 innings in those games. Tim Redding has a lousy 5.59 ERA in 14 starts this year and has a craptacular 6.75 ERA overall since July 1.
The bullpen has been anchored by the magnificent pitching of Octavio Dotel. Before July 1 he was merely excellent. In 25 innings pitched since the beginning of July he has been almost unhittable:
Dotel ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 -------------------------------------------- Before July 1 2.68 6.26 1.25 3.04 10.91 Since July 1 0.72 3.96 0.00 1.44 10.80
The much-maligned Billy Wagner has actually been sharper since July 1 in all areas of his game save one: the long ball. His hits and walks per nine innings are down, while his strikeouts per nine innings are up. But with more home since July 1 in 21 innings pitched than before July 1 in 37 innings pitched, his ERA has jumped as well:
Wagner ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 -------------------------------------------- Before July 1 2.68 7.05 0.73 3.16 9.49 Since July 1 3.86 6.43 1.71 2.14 11.57
In July and August the Astros have benefited from the reliable relief of Brandon Puffer (3.43 ERA in 21 innings pitched), Jim Mann (2.84 ERA in 12-2/3 innings pitched), and Pedro Borbon (3.65 ERA in 12-1/3 innings pitched). Nelson Cruz, who started five games in June and July, has a 4.28 ERA in 27-1/3 innings pitched since July 1, while Ricky Stone, who posted a sparkling 2.11 ERA in 42-2/3 innings pitched before July 1, might be starting to tire, compiling a 5.03 ERA in 19-2/3 innings pitched since the beginning of July.
The Astros have played winning baseball for just six weeks. That’s also about how much of the regular season is left. If they can keep up some semblance of this level of play through September, they have a realistic chance of catching the Cardinals, on whom the Astros have gained just three games since the beginning of July despite fine performances up and down the roster.
In mid-July, the Astros needed a 49-27 finish, a .645 clip, to reach 90 wins. They still need to go 27-16, or .628, to reach that total. This isn’t going to be easy, but the last six weeks show that it can be done.