A Hot Stove in the Dugout

Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com.
I often have thought that the easiest job in the United States of America must be coaching or managing a baseball team.  That must be so because everyone who has seen a game thinks the job is easy.  In this age of information, excessive analysis, computer simulations and fantasy leagues, people who do not know that baseball players also must play defense are front office wannabes just waiting to be discovered.  There is no shortage of armchair “experts” who are willing to tell the real experts how to do their jobs.  Why should I be different?

As it is true that the most popular person to University of Texas fans in any given year is the Longhorns’ second string quarterback, it is also true that the most unpopular person to Houston Astros fans in any given year is the General Manager.  That poor soul’s in-season and off-season moves are scrutinized and dissected by the simulation gurus, the fantasy leaguers, the Play Station champions, and the anonymous Internet geniuses.  Folks whose sole physical activity has been popping the top of a can containing a malted beverage scornfully deride decisions made by management personnel who have spent their entire careers in professional baseball.

You see, baseball is part of the American fabric, and all Americans fancy themselves to be knowledgeable about all facets of the game from the front office to first base.  In the winter, Hot Stove League discussions and debates, during which fans cuss and discuss actual or anticipated roster moves, bring as much pleasure to many fans as the actual season does.  Wars have been fought with more temperate rhetoric than the most recent trade or free agent signing usually generates among baseball fans. The TalkZone is no different than any other Hot Stove League.  Every Todd, Ric and Arky has a plan for retooling the Astros, and there is little doubt that not one of these plans included Brian Hunter until last week.  Amazingly, Gerry Hunsicker continues to remake the Astros without seeking advice from the denizens of the TZ.  Undaunted by the Hun’s benign neglect, Hot Stove League discussions continue unabated in this forum and have reached incendiary levels with the recent moves of the budget-challenged GM.  

Millions of words have been written by TalkZone participants about what the Astros should do-who is affordable, who should be traded, who should be acquired, who is not worth having and how much of Drayton’s money should be spent.  I leave those machinations to folks who are smarter about those things than I, which seems to include most TZers. The purpose of this article is to examine the remaking of the Astros for the 2002 season from a coach’s perspective, limited by the players currently in the organization.  Not surprisingly, this dissertation will be light on statistics and financial details, and those despicable letters (OPS) will not even be mentioned in passing.

When I made my living as a coach, putting together a baseball team began with pitching, of course, but there were two very distinct components for position players: offense and defense.  Most of today’s yackball-crazed fantasy leaguers think only of offense, but for me, defense was at least equally important.  If I were retooling any team, from the McCallum Knights to the Houston Astros, I first would consider the defensive requirements of each position as I analyzed my personnel.  The primary goal for any team on defense is to make outs on every routine play and on an occasional difficult play.  This formula will produce championships more often than not.  The ideal defense would include the following characteristics:
   
C – ability to block balls in the dirt, strong and accurate throwing arm with a quick release
1B – ability to catch the ball wherever it is thrown, including in the dirt, any other defensive skills are gravy
2B – quick feet, adequate range and throwing arm, ability to turn the double play from all angles and positions without a perfect feed
SS – excellent range right and left, quickness, very strong throwing arm, ability to make the play in the hole consistently
3B – quick hands and feet, strong throwing arm, range to his left is a plus
RF – best outfielder on the team, very strong throwing arm, enough speed to get to the gap
CF – excellent range to both gaps, speed, average to above average throwing arm
LF – average to below average throwing arm is sufficient, the least skilled outfielder on the team can play left field

The next task is trying to fit the team’s personnel, including present members or possible acquisitions, into these defensive requirements without sacrificing so much offense that the team’s run production becomes anemic.  If it cannot be done, then players who are defensive liabilities but who can hit will be tolerated.  Gerry Hunsicker presently is undertaking this evaluative task.

For the Astros, only first base, second base and catcher are settled positions.  Jeff Bagwell has no peer as a defensive first baseman and gives the Astros much more than the position requires.  At second base, Craig Biggio has slowed considerably, and his range is greatly reduced.  Despite the obvious effects of age and injury on Biggio, he still makes all the routine plays and is excellent at turning the double play.  Brad Ausmus is an outstanding defensive catcher.  He handles everything in the dirt, and he intimidates and eliminates baserunners with his quick release and accurate arm.  As a bonus, he inspires great confidence in his pitching staff.  These three positions are set for the Astros, and the players manning them are of championship caliber.

Chaos reigns in the other five positions, however.  Center field is one of the two biggest question marks on this team, with shortstop being the other.  Although Richard Hidalgo is an adequate center fielder, perhaps he will be better than that if he loses the weight this winter that management would like to see him lose.  Trouble is, Hidalgo is the ideal right fielder.  He lacks the speed and range to be truly great in center field, he has a howitzer for an arm and he has proven himself to be a gifted corner outfielder. He would be great in right field if the Astros can replace him in center field.  If Hidalgo plays right field, though, who plays center field?  That is a substantial dilemma for this team.

Did you say Brian Hunter?  He does fit the defensive mold for a center fielder because of his speed and range, but he has not established himself as an every day center fielder despite many years of trying.  Hunter’s highest and best use may be as a late inning replacement, pinch runner and pinch hitter.  It is a real shame that Glenn Barker never mastered the nuances of the game at the major league level.  Barker is a truly marvelous defensive player who would be a perennial All-Star if the rules allowed him to play only when the other team is batting.

Left field appears to be better staffed than right field and center field if the Astros resist the temptation to trade any of their current outfielders.  Daryle Ward has made himself into a decent left fielder through sheer hard work under the tutelage of Jose Cruz.  Ward has a strong throwing arm and will catch any ball that he gets to.  Therein lies the rub, of course; his considerable bulk, although much less considerable than in previous years, greatly limits his range and speed.  Ward is no gazelle, but he will do fine in left field if he gets to play there.

The primary reason Ward may be elsewhere is named Lance Berkman, of course.  A superstar in waiting, Berkman can play all three outfield positions and get by, but left field is probably his best position because of his below average arm.  If the Astros acquire an every day center fielder (please, Gerry, not Hunter!), Hidalgo will go to his natural position of right field.  Berkman and Ward cannot both play left field in that case because the rules simply will not allow it.  A Ward-Hidalgo-Berkman outfield (left, center, right) will be no better than adequate defensively, and of the three, only Hidalgo is a “true” right fielder.  So, it appears obvious that Ward will be traded if the Astros acquire a center fielder and if Hunsicker’s reported promise that he will play regularly for some team in 2002 is accurate.  Only one thing is clear in the Astros’ muddled outfield situation:  Lance Berkman will be in the lineup every day.

The entire left side of the infield is up for grabs and should be interesting to watch in the off-season and in spring training.  There are no proven players competing for the spots at third base or at shortstop, which is the most crucial defensive position in the infield.  As everyone knows, barring a trade, Chris Truby and Morgan Ensberg will battle for the hot corner.  Truby already has failed once in attempting to be a starter for the Astros, and my money is on Morgan Ensberg to win that competition.  An incredibly hard worker, Ensberg blossomed in Round Rock and continued his success in New Orleans, despite a season-interrupting injury.  Morgan is gregarious, intelligent and can talk the ears off a wooden Indian.  He also is a slick fielder, has gap power and will take a walk.  He will fight the manager to avoid a day off.  If Ensberg is successful in winning the third base job in spring training, he will be an instant fan favorite.  His defense will not be a problem, and Astros fans will wait to see how he produces at the plate.  I am rooting very hard for Ensberg.

For me, the most interesting position to watch will be the competition at shortstop.  Because I am defense-minded in putting a team together, I know what I would do.  The competitors are well known.  Julio Lugo, who epitomizes unrealized potential at the plate and in the field, will be the leader going into spring training, but I would make Adam Everett the starter from the beginning of spring training until he plays his way out of the lineup.  He is a defensive standout and will improve the pitching staff by his presence.  Whether Everett hits and/or gets on base enough to stay in the lineup is yet to be seen, but on “my” team, he would be the starting shortstop until he showed me that his lack of offense outweighed his terrific defense.

So, if I were in charge, and barring any future trades, “my” opening day lineup would look like this:

C       - Ausmus 
1B      - Bagwell 
2B      - Biggio 
SS      - Everett 
3B      - Ensberg 
LF      - Ward 
CF      - Hidalgo 
RF      - Berkman 
Utl. IF - Vizcaino 
Utl. OF - Hunter, Merced

The defensive liabilities of this lineup in the outfield are readily apparent.  Berkman does not have a right fielder’s arm. Hidalgo is a better right fielder than a center fielder, but Berkman cannot play center field well enough to move Hidalgo to right field permanently.  The outfield is best described as slow, slower and slowest.  The best position for both Berkman and Ward is left field.  Whoever plays center field does so by default, but Hunter should not be considered seriously as the answer in center field.  The infield defense on paper is better than the 2001 version, although Vinny Castilla’s defense was always good and often was amazing.  Two rookies will be on the left side of the infield, but Ensberg will be just as good as Castilla, and Everett and Lugo are not on the same planet as defensive shortstops.This starting lineup once again is nearly all right-handed hitters.  Of “my” starters, only Ward and Berkman hit from the left side, but Merced and switch-hitters Vizcaino and newly-acquired Gregg Zaun can provide a left-handed alternative in the outfield and at second, short, and catcher on occasion.  Where will the starters hit in the batting order?  As I created a batting order, the different spots had specific characteristics that I sought to satisfy with the personnel on hand:Leadoff – a guy who can get on base, must be willing to accept walks, must be willing to take pitches in hitters’ counts, speed an asset but not a necessity if he can get on base, a good baserunner is a plus
#2 – another on-base spot, should be a good bunter, must be willing to take pitches in steal situations, an ability to hit behind the runner is helpful because this is a hit and run spot
#3 – best hitter on the team, an RBI spot
Cleanup – best power hitter on the team, home runs and RBI expected
#5 – best RBI man on the team, must be able to “pick up” the cleanup hitter if he fails with men on base
#6 – another decent RBI spot, should be the best hitter left of the three remaining starters, having some pop is a plus
#7 – can be an RBI spot if the team has a high on base percentage but does not have to be, usually comes down to the better hitter between the last two remaining players, if this slot produces some runs, the team is doing well
#8 – usually the weakest hitter on the team, must be able to take walks or to get on base enough to keep the pitcher from leading off inningsSo, based on who “my” starters are, again barring a future trade, the batting order would look like this:

Biggio 
Everett 
Bagwell 
Ward 
Berkman 
Hidalgo 
Ensberg 
Ausmus

Biggio is not a “true” leadoff man but seems to be the best option.  Everett and Ausmus may be switched if Everett cannot handle MLB pitching well enough to hit high in the order.  Hunter should lead off or bat second when he plays, and Vizcaino is a natural for the two hole.  I do not believe that R-L-R “balance” in a batting order is essential, and I am happy with the above batting order, given the personnel currently on the team.  I would dearly love to add Carlos Beltran to this team, although that would mean trading Daryle Ward. Only in fantasy leagues would something that wonderful happen.  Right? The bench has a good start on being solid with Vizcaino, Merced, Zaun and Hunter.  Whether the mix will include Ginter or some yet-to-be-added left-handed hitting infielder will be something to watch closely.Anyone putting together a baseball team would drool at the pitching talent now available.  Oswalt, Miller, Reynolds, Hernandez and Mlicki are a very solid starting rotation; Redding, Brocail, Cruz, Linebrink, Dotel and Wagner form the nucleus of a strong bullpen, although another left-hander in the pen would be ideal.  I might trade Wagner and turn the closer job over to Dotel for the right deal.  I shall leave it to “Trader Todd” or to Michael Nash to say what the right deal is, but I sure would like to have Beltran in “my” lineup.  I would entertain the notion of signing Ron Villone for the situational lefty role.  A tantalizing alternative to Villone is Wilfredo Rodriguez, but that extremely talented young man must develop consistency and do it soon.  My number one priority for pitching this off-season, though, would be Pedro Astacio.  I am excited to hear that both player and club have interest in each other if his rehab goes well.  A healthy Astacio would anchor this pitching staff, and the starting rotation would be as solid a staff as there is in MLB.  Go get him, Gerry.In a perfect world (meaning budgets make no difference), Moises Alou would finish his career in Houston, as he wanted to do.  What a wonderful professional hitter he is.  Much maligned (unfairly, in my opinion), Alou was a proud and loyal member of the Houston Astros.  Although he noticeably tired at the end of the 1998 and 2001 seasons, he provided the club the ideal RBI producer for the five hole, and he delivered clutch hit after clutch hit.  One of my favorite memories of Alou is his pulling his hands into his body so that he could get to a fastball that would hit most batters in the chest and then driving that pitch out of the park to left or left center.  His at bats were clinics on professional hitting; Alou took the outside pitch to right, and he punished pitchers who dared to try to throw a fastball past him on or off the inside part of the plate.  He altered his approach to fit the circumstances of each at bat, and his situational hitting stood out in this day of all-or-nothing swings.