By Michael N
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on December 4, 2001.
Minor Opinions is going to put a twist on the annual prospect list this year in hopes of livening up THE VOID which plagues sane men and women prior to the start of Spring Training. What follows is a list of 20 top prospects, both pitchers and hitters, in the Houston Astro system plus a brief look at some bullpen candidates (spit) for the near future.
Any of the following 20 prospects is a worthy candidate for inclusion in the official Minor Opinions Top Ten List to be published at a website near you next week. As Astros fans, we are blessed to follow an organization so committed to sustaining a successful farm system. A record of their success in 2001 can be summed up in this not-so-short list of accomplishments:
– 6 of 8 affiliate teams making the playoffs
– 4 of 6 playoff teams winning league championships
– highest winning percentage of all minor league systems
– new all-time Texas League record for strikeouts by Round Rock staff
– new all-time South Atlantic League record for strikeouts by Lexington staff
– Texas League MVP (Jason Lane)
– Venezuelan Summer League MVP (Hector Gimenez)
– Tony Pena (New Orleans), Jackie Moore (Round Rock) and JJ Cannon (Lexington) each named minor league manager of the year by different national publications.
It was an amazing year for the player development program and this collection of talent should ensure Orange Whoopass remains a pain National League foes will feel on a regular basis in years to come.
Carefully peruse this list of prospects, Astro-fans, as you will soon be asked to put your prognostication skills to good use. That’s because Minor Opinions is instituting the first annual Pick the Top Ten List contest and if you are wise enough to submit a ballot later declared the winner – you will have your very own Round Rock Express baseball cap and an acknowledgement in the next MO as resident Miss/Mr. Cleo for the day.
Please read the official rules of the contest carefully before sending in your ballot.
As something of a hint to those of you who wish to participate in “Pick the Top Ten List”, remember that Minor Opinions makes a habit of giving more weight to those players who have actually made some sort of mark in the higher levels than some other lists which forecast the future of young players. Suffice to say, or dare I say, it’s a more balanced list than most. It would also behoove those taking a stab at guessing the list to consider which players are likely to remain in the Astro system and those most likely to make a large impact on the major league roster.
Good luck in the contest and happy reading.
JOHN BUCK (C, Throws/Bats:R/R, AGE as of 4/1/02, 21)
2001 Stats (A-Lexington): 443AB, 122H, 24 2B, 1 3B, 22HR, 73RBI, 72R, 37BB, 84K, .275/.345/.483
Arizona Fall League: 63AB, 18H, 6 2B, 0 3B, 2HR, 18RBI, 12R, 5BB, 11K, .286/.347/.476
Described by his manager (JJ Cannon) at Lexington as the glue which held the champion Legends together, Buck is also noted as a tireless worker and a sponge for information and direction. A big guy (6’3″, 215) who is not a burner, he nonetheless is quite agile behind the plate and has a quick release to go along with an above-average, and accurate, throwing arm. There’s not much doubt Buck has the tools to be a good receiver on the major league level and his game-calling skills and rapport with his pitchers are very much advanced for a person his age.
What needs to happen for Buck so as to enter the very highest echelon of catching prospects in the game is for his bat to emerge. And it’s the opinion here that all he needs is experience. In each of the last 3 seasons he has been among the younger players in his league and he has more than held his own offensively. He could stand to cut down on the strikeouts a bit, but his rates are not excessive and his power numbers have increased each and every season since he signed with Houston as a seventh round pick out of a Utah HS in 1998.
I expect he will earn the starting job with AA Round Rock next year and spend the better part of the next couple of seasons there honing his offensive skills while preparing to take over the catching duties in 2004. The organization is very high on this young man and a keen eye should be kept on his progress.
ETA: Spring 2004.
CHRIS BURKE (SS/2B, T/B:R/R, AGE, 22)
2001 Stats (A-Michigan): 233AB, 70H, 11 2B, 6 3B, 3HR, 17RBI, 47R, 26BB, 31K, 21/29SB, .300/.376/.438
The 2001 Southeastern Conference Player of the Year was selected by Houston in the first round of this year’s draft for the combination of great leadoff skills and speed he showed at the University of Tennessee. In his first taste of pro ball he did not disappoint as he scored 47 runs and stole 21 bases in 56 games with the low-A Michigan Battle Cats.
Between his sophomore and junior years at Tennessee, Burke added a bit of loft to his quick and short swing in order to add more pop. Doing so proved a success as he jacked 18 long balls in his final collegiate season. While it’s not clear he should go back to being more of a line-drive hitter, whichever swing he sticks with all this kid needs to do is be selective and make contact because when he does he’s a bitch on the bases with his 6.4 speed in the 60 yard dash.
The comparisons to Biggio are made constantly because they are obvious. Burke hits for average and a little pop, gets on base, busts his ass, hustles on every play and dirt clings to his jersey such that he is the obvious successor to Pigpen. Player development folks with Houston have hinted at his being on the fast-track so probability says he will begin the season with AA Round Rock. Which position he plays, shortstop or second base, is undetermined. But it will surely be a lot of fun for the RR faithful to have their first real burner stealing bags at the Dell next season.
Be he a SS or 2B, Burke’s ascendency to Houston will almost entirely be a matter of his continual development of on-base and run scoring ability.
Oh, one other thing. Burke got rave reviews from his Michigan teammates for being a down-to-earth, regular grunt instead of a bonus-baby millionaire primadonna. If he keeps that attitude, he and Jackie Moore will work fabulously together and young Mr. Burke will be given quite an education by the old catcher. Let’s hope Chris takes advantage of it.
ETA: Spring 2004.
MORGAN ENSBERG (3B, T/B:R/R, AGE, 26)
2001 Stats (AAA-New Orleans): 316AB, 98H, 20 2B, 0 3B, 23HR, 61RBI, 63R, 45BB, 60K, .310/.397/.592
Dominican Winter League (11/28/01): 99AB, 27H, 4 2B, 1 3B, 6HR, 17RBI, 22R, 22BB, 18K, .272/.403/.515
Let’s do a little comparison. The following represents the statistical production of two players in their AA and AAA careers:
Player X: 822AB, 256H, 44HR, 62 2B, 2 3B, 178RBI, 156R, 167BB, 156K, .311/.435/.552
MEnsberg: 799AB, 243H, 51HR, 54 2B, 0 3B, 151RBI, 160R, 137BB, 167K, .304/.412/.563
Do I think Ensberg is going to be as productive as Player X in the majors? No. Player X was 22-23 years old when he compiled most of those statistics while Ensberg was a couple of years older. But simply looking at the statistical production of Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg side-by-side makes a damned impressive case for Morgan in his quest for the starting job with Houston.
What Ensberg possesses as a hitter is not something easily taught. He has plate discipline to go along with a very powerful stroke. While Vinny Castilla may have provided some good power numbers for the Astros last year, he, Chris Truby and Charlie Hayes posted .320, .276 and .293 OBP numbers respectively. Those numbers are simply unacceptable and while I’m not willing to say as an everyday player Ensberg would exceed Castilla’s .492 SLG number in his first season. But there’s not much doubt in my mind he would far exceed such pathetic on-base totals.
The only downside as I see it is the fact Ensberg is 26 years old and has basically no major league experience under his belt. That leaves little room for a learning curve. However, had it not been for a broken hammate bone which deprived him of nearly 2 months last season Ensberg would likely have been under serious consideration for MVP of the Pacific Coast League in 2001 and his name would be bandied about in national circles more often.
It’s the belief here Morgan will win the starting 3B job in Spring Training (unless the Hun brings in a ringer) and Astros fans will come to consider the affable Ensberg a big fan favorite.
ETA: Spring 2002.
ADAM EVERETT (SS, T/B:R/R, AGE 25)
2001 Stats (AAA-New Orleans): 441AB, 110H, 20 2B, 8 3B, 5HR, 40RBI, 69R, 39BB, 74K, 24/29SB, .249/.330/.365
Venezuelan Winter League: 67AB, 22H, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 8RBI, 7R, 4BB, 18K, .328/.378/.388
It is getting more and more difficult to be a fan of Everett, the player. Quite simply, the offensive production expected is just not happening for Adam. It was advised by the club that he try and be more aggressive at the plate this year and the results were not impressive. Yes, he made more contact and his average and SLG went up slightly v. last season but his OBP actually dropped and that is bad news. Getting on base simply must be Everett’s primary offensive skill as the probability of his becoming a 20 HR/40 2B guy as a shortstop in the majors is just about nil.
While Everett, the player, still has a way to go as far as impressing the fans and opposition – Everett, the man, continues to impress everyone associated with him given his work ethic and even keel in the face of disappointment. His glove will get him to the major leagues at some point and he knows that. What he also knows is that he would already be there if he were performing at the plate and that has got to be frustrating.
So, what to do regarding the SS situation in Hosuton? Assuming Hun will not go after another player and Houston has to choose between Julio Lugo and Adam Everett, the decision will come down to a preference between average offensive production and substandard defense (Lugo) or substandard offense and above-average defense (Everett). I don’t pretend to know which way Houston will go next season but I do know that I have a personal preference. Given the offensive production expected from 1B, 2B, LF, CF, RF and possibly 3B next season, take a guess which is the choice here.
If Everett gets the chance, I expect him to struggle mightily his first go-around and bear the brunt of a TON of criticism by fans and the media. Give him time though. He’ll make Biggio (an Burke?) a better defensive player, his pitchers will come to appreciate him and, eventually, he’ll be a respectable OBP guy.
ETA: Spring 2002.
RAMON GERMAN (3B, T/B:R/S, AGE 22)
2001 Stats (A-Lexington): 461AB, 122H, 37 2B, 3 3B, 13HR, 93RBI, 72R, 55BB, 107K, 21/30SB, .265/.352/.443
Clearly a player to continue watching in the Astro system. The switch-hitting Dominican has spent only two seasons in the States and has performed quite well at each stop.
German is a free-swinger, as evidenced by his 107Ks, but he did manage to finish second on the Lexington team with 55 walks and his K/BB and K/AB ratios actually improved v. last year. What stands out, though, is a combination of good speed and pop from both sides of the plate. In his first year of full-season A-ball, German stole 21 bags and finished with the second highest rate of extra-base hits per AB on the team (to Tommy Whiteman).
Not a big guy (5’11”, 175lb), Ramon is quite strong and had little difficulty making the transition back to 3B from 1B where he played in 2000 for Martinsville. I have not seen him yet but am told by several observers that he has at least average defensive skills (hands, range, arm) across the board.
Hunsicker has said German will go to Spring Training competing for the 3B job at Round Rock. More likely it seems he will spend at least half of another season in A-ball as not only are there a jillion candidates for the infield spots in AA next year, Ramon could probably use another season at his previous level in order to gain the confidence that comes with dominating.
And I expect him to do just that for Lexington next season.
ETA: mid-2004.
KEITH GINTER (2B, T/B:R/R, AGE 25)
2001 Stats (AAA-New Orleans): 457AB, 123H, 31 2B, 5 3B, 16HR, 70RBI, 76R, 61BB, 147K, .269/.380/.464
Venezuelan Winter League: 97AB, 21H, 5 2B, 0 3B, 2HR, 10RBI, 12R, 12BB, 25K, .216/.300/.330
Oh, how the mighty fell.
As forecast, Ginter did have trouble with AAA pitching. In no small part, this was due to his habit of looking at strike one and digging himself a hole. But if one looks a little deeper into the numbers there is hope because, despite the prodigious strikeout totals, Ginter was able to reach base a respectable 38% of the time given his Hidalgo-esque ability to get plunked – 23 times, in fact.
Last season, Keith played nearly 30% of his games at positions other than his accostomed second base and thus it seems logical to assume he is being groomed as a utility player. If he can manage to reduce the strikeout totals and add speed and pop back to his game, Ginter would be a very useful role player for the Astros or prime trade bait as there are no shortage of teams needing pop in the middle infield.
Unfortunately for Ginter, though, his window of opportunity to be a starter with Houston is rapidly closing with the return to form of Craig Biggio and the plethora of middle infield prospects on his tail.
ETA: mid-to-late 2002. Probable trade bait, though.
CHARLTON JIMERSON (OF, T/B:R/R, AGE 22)
2001 Stats (A-Pittsfield): 197AB, 46H, 12 2B, 1 3B, 9HR, 31RBI, 35R, 18BB, 79K, 15/19SB, .234/.304/.442
A guy who strikes out once every 2.5 at-bats qualifies for top prospect consideration? Am I nuts? Perhaps, perhaps not.
As readers of Minor Opinions through the years know, I’m not exactly fond of toolsy players who don’t perform as baseball players (read: Mike Rosamond). But Jimerson is due some slack as he not only walked on to the powerhouse University of Miami baseball team, he sat on the bench for the better part of 3.5 seasons. It’s not as though this kid has been a 3 or 4-year starter with the expected polish.
What Jimerson does have is incredible physical gifts. He can run like a deer, has a cannon arm in the OF (a legitimate CF) and is a very powerfully built 6’2″, 200lbs. Clearly he is the best overall athlete Houston took in the last draft and he actually attended Miami on an academic scholarship. But he is very, very raw as a baseball player and prospect watchers will likely have to be patient in following his development.
Case in point: at the beginning of the New York/Penn League season this year, Jimerson started off hot as a $2 pistol. He then suffered some nagging injuries and NY/P hurlers started to figure out it’s not a good idea to throw him fastballs. Subsequently, Jimerson’s production suffered greatly. Astros roving hitting instructor Johnny Lewis then spent some time with Charlton and he slowly began to reap the benefits of that instruction toward the end of the season.
I suspect this will be a pattern for Jimerson over the next couple of years, starting with next season at either Michigan or Lexington. But should he ever harness his capabilities and put them to consistent proper use, Houston could very well have a monster player on their hands.
ETA: mid-to-late 2005.
JASON LANE (OF, T/B:L/R, AGE 25)
2001 Stats (AA-Round Rock): 526AB, 166H, 36 2B, 2 3B, 38HR, 124RBI, 103R, 61BB, 98K, 14/16SB, .316/.407/.608
Venezuelan Winter League (11/28/01): 137AB, 39H, 10 2B, 1 3B, 6HR, 23RBI, 19R, 8BB, 19K, .285/.342/.504
For the second year in a row, the Astro farm club in Round Rock produced the MVP of the Class AA Texas League. Jason Lane began the season on a tear and pretty much never let up, leading the Express to the league championship series.
Coming into this season there were a few doubts surrounding the USC product. Since being drafted in 1999, Lane had always played well (in fact, he was MVP on both of his previous teams) but had not progressed beyond mid-A level Michigan. Also, there were questions surrounding his ability to play the OF as well as would his good power numbers continue when he faced competition more closely resembling his age/experience level. Well, if 2001 is any indication of future performance all those questions are pretty much put to rest.
Lane is not a great outfielder, but, like Berkman, he has worked hard to make himself an average fielder – though he does have a better arm than Lance. His power numbers speak for themselves but if you were lucky enough to see him play at Dell Diamond this past year you would have seen for yourself that there is no need to question his power. Lane hit some of the most majestic bombs ever seen in the Texas League last year.
Jason can also be called a “smart” baseball player. He’s not gifted with tremendous speed, but he reads pitchers and the ball well so he is able to take an extra bag via the steal or on a hit into the gaps. I also cannot recall an instance last year where he missed the cutoff man on a throw back to the infield.
Like last year’s Texas League MVP, Lane is no sure thing. Yes, they each put up incredible numbers in AA but neither is viewed by scouts as a “can’t miss”. Keith’s problems were exposed in AAA and I believe Jason will also have some adjusting to do in AAA. He has a bit of an odd swing that looks like he’s whipping the bat through the zone instead of swinging and more experienced pitchers may find a way to exploit it.
That said, Lane is a better contact hitter than Ginter and so I believe he will suffer less during the transition to AAA pitching. Should that be the case, Houston will have a very nice fourth option in the OF waiting in the wings.
ETA: late 2002 or Spring 2003.
BRAD LIDGE (RHP, B:R, AGE 25)
2001 Stats (AA-Round Rock): 5GS, 2-0, 26.0IP, 21H, 5R, 5ER, 7BB, 42K, 1.73ERA
There are two primary things to say with regard to Mr. Lidge:
1. Bar none, his was the best arm in the Texas League last year. In fact, it wasn’t really all that close.
2. He’s got an infestation of injury bug that’s needing a serious dose of Diazinon.
With a grand total of 74 innings over 3 years under his belt, Brad Lidge stepped onto the AA fields for the first time and made hitters look silly. No, make that impotent. Possessing a consistent mid-90s fastball and utterly wicked slider in the upper-80s, Lidge was a man among boys and stood out among the Round Rock staff which set an all-time Texas League record for strikeouts. Among the 78 outs recorded while he was on the mound, 42 of those hitters went back to the dugout victims of a third strike.
Simply put, he’s got a thunderbolt for a right arm. He has good control, good mechanics and is more than a little imposing on the mound with his 6’5″ frame. From what I saw, the only thing keeping him from stardom in Major League Baseball is the inability to stay on the active roster. Unfortunately, that “only” thing is just about the biggest problem a prospect can have other than flat sucking.
His return to health could very well be the biggest bonus for the Houston Astros in 2002. If he’s healthy, it’s my view he could almost immediately step into the bullpen and be a major contributor – his stuff is that good.
ETA: mid-2002, if the need arises. Otherwise, Spring 2003. (Assuming he’s healthy. Big assumption.)
SCOTT LINEBRINK (RHP, B:R, AGE 25)
2001 Stats (AAA-New Orleans): 50G, 7-6, 8SV, 72.0IP, 52H, 28R, 28ER, 24BB, 72K, 3.50ERA
(MO has a reliever on the list. Egads!)
Scott began the 2001 season on the major league roster but was really just an insurance policy as he was bound for a return to AAA. Along with the disappointment that is returning to life in the minors, he struggled a tad on his return to the Zephrys. But after the All-Star break he was virtually unhittable. For the season, combined Houston and New Orleans numbers, Linebrink allowed only 58 hits in 82.1IP while striking out 81 batters. That’s impressive.
One thing I like about Linebrink, versus some of the other candidates for the pen from New Orleans and other relief guys Houston has had over the last 5 years, is that this young man throws hard and comes right at hitters. The Austin native was originally a starter in the San Francisco system before converting to the pen in the same year he was acquired for Nitro Henry, and one has to judge the conversion a success so far.
The only complaint one can lodge against Linebrink is a tendency to get wild at times. He uncorked 9 wild pitches last year with New Orleans and his walks tend to come in bunches. But when he’s on, hitters don’t usually get too many good swings off of him. Consider this: tossing 72 innings in the usually hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Scott allowed only 4 homers. That’s also pretty darned impressive.
ETA: sometime in 2002.
GREG MILLER (LHP, B:L, AGE 22)
2001 Stats (AA-Round Rock): 14GS, 5-3, 55.1IP, 38H, 22R, 20ER, 35BB, 37K, 3.25ERA
Arizona Fall League: 5GS, 13.0IP, 18H, 13R, 10ER, 8BB, 10K, 6.92ERA
All the promise for a 2001 season of success was derailed by a persistent back problem which has continued to limit his appearances and effectiveness and will also need continuing rehab during this Spring. And despite investigating his situation, no one has been able to give me a definitive diagnosis of his injury or what the timetable is for his return to normalcy. I suppose that is the nature of back problems but it is certainly frustrating not to be able to find answers. No doubt moreso for Greg.
When healthy Miller has average stuff across the board. He’s not going to overpower hitters with his fastball nor is his curve or change totally devastating. What he has in his favor is a beautiful delivery from his 6’5″ height and an advanced feel for his pitches – any one of which he’ll throw at any time in the count. Miller is still young enough that it’s possible he could add some oomph to his fastball but it seems more likely he will spend the rest of his career relying on guile and location.
Assuming all returns to normal, a second stint with Round Rock seems to be in order for Miller. Let’s hope the feats forecast for him last year are realized in 2002. I don’t know that his future remains as a starter but he certainly has the credentials and track record of success in previous years which lead one to believe 2001 was an anomoly.
ETA: mid-2003 or Spring 2004.
MIKE NANNINI (RHP, B:R, AGE 21)
2001 Stats (A-Lexington): 27GS, 15-5, 190.1IP, 176H, 70R, 57ER, 36BB, 151K, 2.70ERA
As readers of the TalkZone know well, Mike Nannini’s exclusion from the 40-man roster this winter is an utter puzzlement to me. A few sources within the organization have confirmed that the decision was a simply a numbers thing, that Nannini was under consideration for protection, he is not specifically involved in any trade discussions and has no injury or personality problems. Hunsicker really wanted some roster flexibility heading into this off-season and that more than anything led to the decision. That said, Nannini was among the very best pitchers in the Sally League last year at the ripe old age of 20 and losing him in Rule 5 would be a tough loss indeed.
First let’s look at the positives. Apart from the obvious above, Nannini has been an absolute workhorse over the last 3 seasons (averaging over 180IP per season) and has never had any sort of arm problems. He has consistently allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and his K/BB ratios have routinely been 3/1 or better, with his 2001 rate being more than 4/1. Mike’s fastball has always had good velocity but he has toned it down in order to spot the heater and it has become an even more effective pitch. His slider has developed to the point one opposing Sally League manager called it the best breaking pitch in the league.
As for negatives, Nannini’s K/IP ratio did drop this season in a repeat of mid-A ball which is not a good sign. He also allowed a league-leading 17 homers. Still, to my way of thinking, in no way do these statistical negatives outweigh what positives Nannini has going for him and what he has accomplished over the last 3 seasons.
If indeed he is healthy, it seems probable some pitching-starved organization will take a flier on Nannini, despite his being a short right-hander, in Rule 5 and that will be a sad day.
ETA: late 2003 or Spring 2004.
TONY PLUTA (RHP, B:R, AGE 19)
2001 Stats (A-Lexington): 26GS, 12-4, 132.1IP, 107H, 52R, 47ER, 86BB, 138K, 3.20ERA
There are some numbers which stick out from Tony Pluta’s first professional season. The good: 107 hits and 138 strikeouts in over 132 innings pitched and a very respectable 3.20ERA. The bad: a whopping 86 walks (which led the Sally League). But the single most important number is not on the stat line. No, it’s not his mid-90s fastball either. It’s 10/28/82 – his birthdate. At 18 years of age, Pluta was among the very youngest players in one of the baseball’s best developmental leagues. A league that was filled to the brim this season with promising pitching talent and there’s no doubting now that Pluta was among a handful of the very best of those young hurlers.
Seen as a bit of a risk when taken in the third round of the 2000 draft by Houston, Pluta was known for having an extremely live arm but no real understanding of how to properly use it. Since instructional league of that year, Pluta has come miles in terms of advancement in the knowledge of the art of pitching. Tony has the capability of throwing the ball in the upper-90s. Like others in the organization though, he has learned to tone it down a bit to gain better control and it’s actually a bit more lively in the 94-95MPH range. He’s still developing his curve and change but, like the fastball, those pitches have come a long way since just a little over a year ago when he was still a Nevada prepster humping the pill as hard as he could.
Think about this: both Scott Elarton and Mike Nannini were first round picks by the Astros right out of high school. Both began their careers in rookie ball, so they had at least some professional experience before their first foray into full-season ball. Pluta did not have the benefit of rookie ball before heading to Lexington this year yet his initial full-season experience was far more successful than that of Nannini or Elarton in virtually every respect.
It may be a little early to annoint this kid the next guy to explode on the scene a la Roy Oswalt or Carlos Hernandez and I expect that he could see a bit of time again in A-ball to continue work on his control before heading to Round Rock. But in many respects, the 6’2″ Pluta is very reminicent of a young Wade Miller and we all saw what happened when WaMi figured out what he was doing on the mound.
ETA: late 2004 or Spring 2005.
CHAD QUALLS (RHP, B:R, AGE 23)
2001 Stats (A-Michigan): 26GS, 15-6, 162.0IP, 149H, 77R, 67ER, 31BB, 125K, 3.72ERA
At mid-season, Qualls was an almost concensus nomination for best RHP in the Midwest League. He tired a bit about 3/4 of the way into the season, got knocked around in a few starts and stopped striking guys out. So he took a little time off and eventually came back strong. By the conclusion of the year, Chad had broken the single-season franchise record for wins in a season previously held by Roy Oswalt and Nick Roberts (13). Qualls also posted an ERA nearly a full run lower than that put up by the Wizard of Os while he was a BCat in 1999.
The 6’5″ Qualls comfortably throws a heavy sinking fastball in the 91-94MPH range and also possesses what was called the best slider in the league by several league managers. An aggressive pitcher by nature, Qualls does not yet possess a quality change but, so far, he has not been hurt much by consistently throwing hard. He’s not known as a dolt, though, so he’s sure to understand as he moves up the ladder he’ll need to develop that pitch in order to remain successful – again reminiscent of Oswalt.
Have you, kind reader, noticed yet the continued comparisons with Roy-O? Of course you have. Why then, you ask, am I making all these comparisons? The most direct answer is because this is the young pitcher I am expecting to have a breakout year and follow in the footsteps of Miller, Oswalt, Hernandez and Redding as the “next big thing” in the Astro pitching development bonanza.
I’m sure a few tickets remain for Round Rock Express baseball next season. Get them while you can.
ETA: mid-to-late 2003.
TIM REDDING (RHP, B:R, AGE 24)
2001 Stats (AA-AAA combined): 20GS, 14-3, 128.1IP, 86H, 47R, 41ER, 44BB, 155K, 2.88ERA
From Florida State League pitcher of the year to a taste of the Major Leagues in less than one year is totally unheard of in an organization run by Gerry Hunsicker. Yet that is exactly what happened for Tim Redding this past season.
The question, now, before the Astros is what to do with this developing right-hander. Is he a big league rotation or bullpen candidate for 2002? Or would he be better suited to continue working on his secondary pitches in AAA to start next season? I think the answers are yes and yes. Despite the Astro rotation seemingly being set with Miller, Oswalt, Reynolds, Hernandez and Mlicki, it’s possible Redding could blow everyone away in Spring and reduce Mlicki to swingman status. The more likely scenario, in my estimation, is that Redding gets a chance to strut his stuff but is returned to New Orleans to get as much work as he can in order to polish is pitching skills.
With regard to the polish needed, I don’t think Tim is in Octavio Dotel territory as to rawness of his off-speed stuff, but the comparison is fairly solid. Redding has lived well with his mid-90s heater for so long that he does not possess the confidence of an Oswalt, Miller or Hernandez in his curve or change. This is borne out in the following statistical comparison:
Double A: 90.2IP, 89H+BB
AAA+Majors: 93.1IP, 127H+BB
If a pitcher with a really good fastball falls behind AA hitters, he can still consistently throw the heater and be successful. However, in most cases, even the best fastball pitchers cannot get away with such tactics for long in AAA or the majors. It is the confidence and the ability to throw secondary pitches for strikes at a time of need which is going to make the difference between Redding’s future as a starter or reliever. I am willing to wager he makes a successful starter down the line.
ETA: mid-2002 or Spring 2003.
MIKE RODRIGUEZ (OF, T/B:L/L, AGE 21)
2001 Stats (A-Pittsfield): 157AB, 50H, 14 2B, 4 3B, 0HR, 14RBI, 38R, 33BB, 30K, 13/18SB, .318/.443/.459
Jimerson’s OF partner with the 2001 National Champion Miami Hurricanes, Rodriguez probably has more pure speed than either Jimerson or Burke. What is a bit surprising, though, is that for a little guy whose game is built on speed he takes a bit of a long swing. Don’t expect that to be a long-term problem. Rodriguez is never going to be a power hitter and so to maximize his effectiveness as a leadoff hitter the hitting staff will most certainly work with him to cut the swing down.
Rodriguez does have an advanced knowledge of what he’s doing at the plate. He sprays the ball all over the field and is very adept at working the count to his favor. The nit-pick of cutting down on the swing should help with regard to strikeouts, too, though they are not a huge issue.
The hope here is that Houston will not keep Rodriguez in a corner OF spot, for obvious reasons. He certainly has the skills to man center and so I expect he will play that position for whichever A-ball team Jimerson does not. And given Houston’s need for a left-handed hitter who can leadoff and play CF, Rodriguez has the opportunity to move very quickly in this organization.
A full-season of pro ball should tell us more of what to expect from this waterbug.
ETA: mid-to-late 2004.
WILFREDO RODRIGUEZ (LHP, B:L, AGE 23)
2001 Stats (AA-Round Rock): 42G, 10GS, 5-9, 92.1IP, 94H, 61R, 49ER, 56BB, 94K, 4.78ERA
Venezuelan Winter League (11/28/01): 9G, 9.0IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 5BB, 5K, 6.00ERA
10/4/01 – Rodriguez becomes the darling of the ESPN crowd and a personal hero to one Barry Bonds for challenging the slugger at Enron Field during his yackball record chase. Bonds then goes so far as to compare Rodriguez to Billy Wagner and Randy Johnson. Pretty heady stuff for the young guy, huh? What got lost in all the hubub, though, is that Wilfredo got taken yard. He did not get the job done.
Now, it’s one thing for a kid to get slapped around by one of the greatest players in the game. There’s no real shame in that at all. But the problem here is that not only Bonds but several AA players continue to hit Wilfredo, despite his good heat and an occasionally devastating curve.
I could launch into a logical defense of Rodriguez and say that he’s still a young, power lefty. That he went from starting to the pen and had difficulty adjusting but actually ended the season with some success as a starter. However, the time for excuses is past. Absolutely no one doubts Wil has the ability to be a major league pitcher. Ability, however, isn’t worth as much anymore when a player starts to get some years under his belt and this will be the third season (second full) Wilfredo is to spend above the A-ball level. It is time to put up or, well, get off the pot.
Until he figures it out, he’s nothing more than a world of potential… sadly unrealized.
ETA: your guess is as good as mine, probably better.
RODRIGO ROSARIO (RHP, B:R, AGE 22)
2001 Stats (A-Lexington): 30G, 21GS, 13-4, 147.0IP, 105H, 46R, 35ER, 36BB, 131K, 2.14ERA
A starter in 4 years of short-season A-ball with mixed success, Rosario began the 2001 season in the bullpen at Lexington. He quickly moved into the rotation, though, and from there he became, arguably, the most effective starter for the champion Legends. By the end of the season, his 2.14ERA qualified as third best in the circuit and he allowed fewer than one baserunner (H+BB/IP) per inning pitched.
Rosario is a wiry 6’2″ Dominican who throws a plus fastball in the low-to-mid 90s (92-94) with an above average slider and developing change. What seems to have made the difference for Rodrigo this season in comparison to seasons past is a more serious approach to the game. He’s matured to the point where he has become a clubhouse leader and he speaks English very well. The younger Spanish-speaking players on the Lexington team really looked up to him and he responded very well in that role – on the field, and in the clubhouse.
The 2001 breakout year for Rosario impressed the brass enough that he was included on the Astro 40-man roster this winter. All odds are that he will join the Round Rock rotation next season and, as is the case for all players, face the crucial developmental test that is AA baseball. With added maturity and good physical ability to work with, Rosario should continue his successful rise in the Astro system.
ETA: late 2004.
ROBERT STIEHL (RHP, B:R, AGE 21)
2001 Stats (A-Lexington): 14G, 12GS, 2-3, 50.0IP, 28H, 17R, 11ER, 34B, 59K, 1.98ERA
As most of you probably know, Stiehl was primarily a catcher in junior college who is still quite new to pitching. Despite being closely monitored and limited by a strict pitch count as a starter at Lexington, the 2000 first round draft selection was sidelined with a shoulder injury which required surgery and will take quite a while to rehab. He is not expected to be ready by Spring but is expected to recover fully.
The good news is that when he was able to throw this past season, about the only chance Sally League hitters had to reach base was via the free pass. Stiehl overmatched the vast majority of hitters he faced with a combination of mid-to-upper 90s gas and a pretty good curve. While possessing a very promising arm, he is still raw and it will most likely take a few seasons before he is a candidate for the majors.
His future most likely will be as a closer and there is a good list of former position players who converted to the mound. Some also suffered injury setbacks early in their pitching careers – Robb Nen being the most prominent name on the list. Should Stiehl amount to a pitcher even remotely close to Nen’s level, he will have effecively vindicated the Astros for selecting him in the face of questions by the pundits and reaction by some fans.
Talent alone says he will do so and he does not turn 21 until 12/9/01. But he’s got a lot to learn and an injury to overcome first so the jury is still very much out.
ETA: late 2004 at the earliest. Likely 2005.
TOMMY WHITEMAN (SS, T/B:R/R, AGE 22)
2001 Stats (A-Lexington): 389AB, 124H, 26 2B, 8 3B, 18HR, 57RBI, 58R, 34BB, 106K, .319/.380/.566
When Houston traded Carlos Guillen as part of the Randy Johnson deal in mid-’98, the Houston Astros were reduced to Carlos Hernandez and Julio Lugo as the only middle infield prospects with any full-season experience as professionals and Lugo was still in A-ball. That’s pretty thin.
Since then, Houston has quickly rebuilt their store of young up-the-middle guys and perhaps none has come to the fore more quickly than Whiteman. Tim Purpura has gone on the record as saying Whiteman goes into the hole as well as any SS he has seen in years. I have no reason to doubt Mr. Purpura and what I’ve seen is that the ball absolutely jumps off of his bat. A .566 slugging percentage from a shortstop who is given credit for having any kind of glove whatsoever should instantly raise some eyebrows.
I recall his first AA game at Round Rock. Whiteman fielded flawlessly, hit a monstrous homer to the back of the bullpen in left-center and just missed another homer deep into the same part of the ballpark. Flashes of Dickie Thon flooded my brain and, expectantly, I got giddy as a schoolgirl.
Whiteman does have a bit of a long swing and is prone to the punchout. He is going to have to develop better plate discipline in order to master the upper levels but all indications from folks I’ve talked to are he has the ability to do so. I expect he’ll spend the season at Round Rock this year, probably splitting time with Burke at SS and also playing some 3B.
ETA: he’ll get a look in Spring 2004.
POSSIBLE RELIEF MEN OF THE FUTURE:
RYAN JAMISON (RHP, B:R, AGE 24)
Average stuff, bulldog mentality. Very nice work in Arizona Fall League as reliever. Will probably return to Round Rock.
DARWIN PEGUERO (LHP, B:R, AGE 23)
Good velocity for a lefty. Control led to excellent K/BB (134/37) and K/IP (134/124.1) ratios with Lexington.
BRANDON PUFFER (RHP, B:R, AGE 26)
Transition to sidearm delivery, where he touches the low-90s, has resurrected his career. Added to 40-man roster this winter.
SANTIAGO RAMIREZ (RHP, B:R, AGE 21)
Echo… short right-hander who throws hard in the Astro organization. Allowed only 2HR in nearly 80IP for Lexington while punching out 85 hitters.
NICK ROBERTS (RHP, B:R, AGE 25)
Like Jamison, a starter prior to going to the AFL. Also had a very successful stint out of the pen against some of the best hitters AA and AAA baseball has to offer.
KIRK SAARLOOS (RHP, B:R, AGE 22)
Headed for the Lexington rotation next year but will probably end up a middle relief guy when he hits the majors. Had an outstanding debut (22G, 30.2IP, 18H, 5R, 4ER, 7BB, 40K, 1.17ERA). Lives on movement and guile, not a burner.
TOM SHEARN (RHP, B:R, AGE 24)
Selected as the only Astros representative at the World Cup. Former stater thrived out of the bully with Round Rock in 2001. Throwing harder than as a starter he sometimes lost control, but when on he was nasty. Also added to Astro 40-man this winter.