By Michael N
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on November 27, 2001.
In anticipation of the top prospect list for 2002 due next week, a quick and dirty examination of the top prospect list from last year as well as selected “projectables”.
TOP PROSPECTS:
1. Roy Oswalt
“Unless there are any more injuries to Astro starters, or a combination of crappy springs by guys like Tony McKnight or Wade Miller and an absolutely stellar one by Oswalt, it seems likely Roy is bound for a stint in N’Awlins. But if he’s signing a lease, somebody better tell him to make it month-to-month. He’s probably not staying there very long. ETA: Mid-season 2001.”
My boy Roy keeps on making me look like Kreskin.
Grade: A+
2. Wilfredo Rodriguez
“If a mature, healthy Rodriguez has the kind of success in AAA reminiscent of what we saw in high-A, he will be firing the pill at the EFUS before too long given the lack of lefties wearing the blood and mud. If that other Wilfredo shows up… I hang up the Kreskin hat and say only that since he’s a lefty he’ll still pitch in major league baseball.”
The commentary is accurate but Willie Rod keeps making me look like, well, the anti-Kreskin for placing him so highly in the rankings.
Grade: C-
3. Tim Redding
“I’m still not completely convinced Redding will remain a starter and that’s mostly due to the fact that he doesn’t yet have a consistently dominant second or third pitch. If he refines a killer #2, Redding has the kind of live heater and sound mechanics to endure throwing 200+ innings a year. But as everyone witnessed last year in Houston with Octavio Dotel, starting pitchers do not thrive in MLB throwing only gas.”
Timmah still needs a second gear for the wheelchair. But that first gear is a killah.
Grade: A
4. Keith Ginter
“He’s got wonderful power-hitting potential for a middle infielder and if he’s not in the majors soon it’ll only be because Biggio is back to his old self again or the Astros haven’t traded him.”
Or he won’t be in the majors because he’s striking out at an unacceptable rate. I still think he’s got a shot at a decent career with one or two above-average seasons in the majors for a team that will let him play full-time.
Grade: C
5. Mike Nannini
“If he does not start the year in Round Rock, do not expect him to stay long in the A-ball ranks. A 14-7 record with fewer hits than innings pitched and a slightly better than 3K-1BB ratio between Michigan and Kissimmee attest that he has mastered those levels.”
No callup despite performance among the very best in Sally League action and no inclusion on the early 40-man roster due before the Winter Meetings. As Alice would say, “things are curiouser and curiouser”.
Grade: B-
6. Morgan Ensberg
“…it’s the view here that Ensberg has a good chance of being the first of the players listed so far to be called to the EFUS next year. He’s as good a defender as Chris Truby. And while he may not hit with quite as much power as Truby, he hits for average and is a hell of a lot more selective at the plate.”
When Vinny Castilla was picked up off the trash heap by the Astros, Morgan Ensberg was leading the PCL in just about every meaningful power statistic, getting on base a high percentage of the time and playing some pretty good D for the Zephyrs. Now that Vinny’s no longer with the Astros, give the nod to Ensberg over Troobs as the favorite to start for Houston next season.
Grade: B+
7. Adam Everett
The whole piece written on Everett still applies – great glove, needs work on bat. Can have the SS job in Houston if he simply proves he can get on base at a respectable rate.
Grade: C
8. Tony McKnight
“At best I think he’s a #3 or #4 starter. That’s nothing to sneeze at, though. Teams need depth in the rotation and McKnight provides that kind of cushion for Houston and at a lot cheaper rate than Chris Holt.”
Ain’t that the truth. But who’da thunk a couple of kids with a year or less experience above AA would rocket past McKnight and not only take 2 of the 5 rotation spots last year, but in dominant fashion? McKnight turns into Mike Williams for half a season and a high-round draft pick. Not bad return for a guy who would probably repeat AAA again with Houston in 2002.
Grade: C+
9. Brad Lidge
“Is 2001 the year we finally see Brad Lidge stay healthy and fulfill the promise his right arm holds? If you, like I, believe that the injury bug is the only thing holding him back then this could very well be the year. Unfortunately, history says otherwise.”
5GS, 26.0IP, 21H, 7BB, 42K, 1.73ERA with Round Rock and his arm starts hurting again. Dammit to hell.
Grade: A
10. Carlos Hernandez
“Another relatively short starter in the Astros’ system, the 5’10” Hernandez will likely spend a good portion of the 2001 season in A-ball working on his command and a changeup. Assuming his progression continues, one can expect that he will be rapidly moved after that given his 40-man roster status.”
OK, so make it AA ball and a meteoric rise. Hope his shoulder continues to heal well.
Grade: B+
11. Greg Miller
“But by the end of the year, I have a good feeling Greg Miller’s name will have joined or surpassed those others on the marquee outside the Dell Diamond.”
Unless that good feeling related to his consistent inclusion on the injured list, I fumbled this one…
Grade: F
12. Aaron McNeal
Traded by the Astros soon after publication of last year’s list. In a repeat of his 2000 season with Round Rock, McNeal continued to hit as a good average, low power, low OBP first baseman… in contrast to his imposing size and strength.
Grade: Incomplete
PROJECTABLES:
Travis Anderson
“Unfortunately his two years of experience as a starter in the pro ranks have made sage those who projected him to ultimately be a bullpen guy. He’s had control problems and rarely does he go very long in a start. He’ll get another year of starting for Michigan, yet it seems all but certain he’ll be a reliever before too long.”
Anderson still possesses a good arm but he is just incredibly inconsistent.
John Buck
“Remember this kid’s name. Prototype catcher’s body (6’3″, 210). Buck has good agility behind the plate, a quick release and a strong throwing arm as evidenced by his throwing out nearly 40% of basestealers last season in Michigan. Does not yet hit for HR power but he does hit for gap power (33 doubles) and controls the strikezone fairly well (55 BB in 390 ABs). Will repeat A-ball this year as the starter for the Lexington Legends. This could very well be his breakout offensive campaign.”
Not a breakout campaign with the stick at Lexington but sufficient enough to warrant a trip to the Arizona Fall League where he more than held his own.
Ramon German
“He’s a free swinger and may have an adjustment period to adapt to the more experienced pitchers in full-season A-ball. If he is able to make the adjustment offensively and defensively (from 1B to 3B – ed.), German’s power from both sides of the plate (and to all fields) will make this young Dominican a jewel of the system and he may be a candidate for 40-man roster status.”
He did not achieve 40-man status but German did drive in 93 runs in 126 games for Lex last year. I expect he’ll repeat A-ball and could very well have an eye-opener of a season in the .290/.385/.500 range.
Ryan Jamison
“… does not have plus stuff but he does have a fantastic killer mentality on the mound. He’s utterly fearless. Will be in the Lexington rotation.”
Did an OK job as a starter once promoted to Round Rock but his future is probably as a middle reliever. Could be a good one with his makeup.
John Topolski
“This Baylor product has good speed, plays good defense and has a good eye at the plate. A nice leadoff option for Lexington. What he doesn’t have is power. He hit only 3 HRs last year playing in Michigan, which is a good hitter’s ballpark. Don’t know how the Legends’ new yard will play, but Topolski better hope is has big gaps where he can use his speed.”
Hrm. Topolski did indeed hit leadoff for Lexington most of the season and managed to transform himself into a pseudo-power hitter at the same time. In 700+ previous ABs in the minors, Topolski had a grand totat of 5 HRs and 31 doubles. In 550 ABs last year he nearly equaled the doubles total (27) and cranked out 24 homers while leading the team in RBI (96). Will be interesting to see how he makes the transition to higher levels.