By Michael N
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on October 24, 2001.
In part one of this wannabe GM rant, we looked at the managerial situation (taken care of), what to do with pending free agents and addressed team needs among the starting position players. Part two will address the rotation, bullpen, bench, salary implications and proposed 40-man roster for the winter meetings.
Pitching
The starting rotation should be rock solid as there is room in my budget to allow for the Houston Astros to keep a healthy Pedro Astacio. Yep, you read right. Keep him. That means the starting rotation next year for Houston should be Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt, Pedro Astacio, Carlos Hernandez and Dave Mlicki with Shane Reynolds traded away. Of course all of this hinges on Astacio’s shoulder being sound. If it’s not, and that is a distinct possibility, chuck all this out the window and keep the healthy guy. If it is sound, Houston has a rotation to start the season which stacks up with any in baseball.
Now for the difficult part. The bullpen is nowhere near as deep as the rotation. With Dotel and Cruz as the only certain holdovers and Roberto Hernandez coming from KC in last week’s scenario, Houston will have to fill 3 bullpen spots and there are no obvious, ready-to-go, candidates from the farm. Also, with Wagner gone, there is a total lack of left-handed pitching in the pen. What of Ron Villone? Well, Mr. Villone brought home $2.8 million last season. Unless he’s willing to take half of that salary next season, and I doubt Mrs. Villone would be so amenable… adios, muchacho. Compounding the lack of lefties problem is that there just does not exist an easy grab-bag from which to pluck a sure fit. Left-handed relief pitching is scarce throughout baseball, and it’s expensive.
With that in mind, I sought the best fits for the most valuable commodity the Astros should be shopping this winter – Billy Wagner. The two teams which best matched the criteria necessary for a trading partner (need for a closer and big enough budget) are Los Angeles and Colorado. Jeff Shaw is in an option year and blew 9 saves last year. He cuts that to 5 blown saves and the Dodgers are in the thick of the pennant race. Colorado’s closer in 2001 was “My Name…” Jose Jimenez. No futhur discussion necessary. Unfortunately, neither the Dodgers nor the Rockies are very deep in young pitching so getting young arms from them is going to be tough.
Before I go any further, I want to do a bit of a retraction here. Last week I was pretty hard on Shane Reynolds. Yes, he has been about a .500 pitcher for Houston over the last 3 seasons. But he’s also thrown 180 or more innings in 6 of the last 7 seasons and so one has to give him his due for being a workhorse starter. Compare his career numbers with those of Chan Ho Park (yes, I recognize the age disparity but look at the results) and it’s pretty staggering to think some team out there is going to shell out $12-15 million for the Dodger hurler. Still, finding a clear fit for Shane Reynolds with another team was difficult. Especially given his contract, which I recently found out is worth closer to $8 million for 2002 as it is in the option year of 2003. Thus the logical place to go looking for a trading partner is a team which either believes itself to be playoff-caliber or one without financial constraints or both. Hello, Tom Hicks and thus an addendum to the Redding/Blalock deal.
Here are the proposed trades:
1. LHP Billy Wagner and OF Jason Lane to Colorado for RHP Jason Jennings, LHP Mike Myers and LHP Josh Kalinowski.
Why it works for COL – While suddenly pretty deep with starters, over the last two seasons only the Milwaukee Brewers (57) trail the Rockies (59) in number of games saved. Wagner (146 career saves, 29 blown) allows Colorado to move Jimenez (41 career saves, 12 blown) to a set-up role where he should be more effective and gives them a nice 1-2 punch from the bullpen. Colorado is also starving for young outfielders with power and plate discipline, which aptly describes the 24-year old Lane. He should become a monster at Coors Field.
Why it works for HOU – The 23-year old Jennings becomes the long relief man or possibly even beats out Mlicki for the 5th starter role. At minimum he provides great insurance against injury and McLane gets a Baylor boy on the roster as well. Myers is the kind of lefty specialist Houston has craved for years. Over the last 4 seasons he has allowed lefty hitters a batting average under .180 and an OBP under .300. 25-year old Kalinowski is a LHP prospect who is of the “smart, though not overpowering” variety. No, he’s not Kyle Kessel. Currently a starter, I think he could end up a quality lefty from the pen in a year or two as he kills left-handed hitting.
Why it may not work – Colorado might not want to take on the additional salary in Wagner unless Houston takes some more salary from them or they may not want to give up so much pitching. Houston might not want to lose Lane, who had such a fantastic breakout season in AA during 2001, as the Astros are not exactly brimming with OF prospects close to being ready to play on the major league level.
2. RHP Shane Reynolds to Texas for LHP Juan Moreno and 1B/OF Jason Botts.
Why it works for TEX – To put it quite simply, Shane Reynolds immediately becomes the best starter in the Ranger rotation. If you don’t believe me, take a look at the numbers. That’s how pathetic the Ranger rotation situation currently stands. This deal gives Texas an immediate rotation upgrade as well as a young stud starter who is very close to making an impact on the major league level. Something the Arlington crowd is sorely lacking.
Why it works for HOU – Moreno has had injury problems in the past but is an extremely effective lefty when healthy. Used properly he should work well with Myers to give Houston two quality lefty options for the first time in many seasons. He is currently 27 years old but as a rookie in 2001 he allowed only a .153 batting average against in 41.1 innings. Another Venezuelan, he’d fit in nicely at Caracas North. Botts is a physical freak. At 6’6″, 250lb. he’s one of the fastest players in the Ranger organization. A 1B in college and early in his pro career, the 21-year old switch-hitter is starting to make the adjustment to the outfield… an area where Houston could stand a bit more depth. In his first year of full-season ball and playing for an utterly horrid Savannah team in the Sally League, Botts finished third in the league in hitting at .309 (right behind Lexington’s Tommy Whiteman) and first in OBP (.416). This deal also allows Houston to shed a good chunk of salary.
Why it may not work – Apart from the difficulty of trading top 3B and P prospects discussed last week, even Tom Hicks’ bank account has a threshold. This deal may require Houston to absorb a decent percentage of Reynolds’ pay as the Rangers are already shelling out good sized contracts for guys like Darren Oliver and Kenny Rogers. But even then I think Reynolds and Redding for Blalock, Moreno and Botts is a good deal for both teams.
Those Guys Riding The Pine
With heavy hearts we’ve bid a hearty farewell to La Cucaracha Eusebio whom we hope enjoys his AARP benefits immensely and immediately. No need to hide your age anymore, Tough Tony. So now a backup to Brad Ausmus has to be found, and since there’s not an immediate candidate from the farm, let’s stare reality in the face and recognize Scott Servais is not an answer, we must dip into the free agent pool. The answer I come up with is Todd Pratt. He’s a tough guy, good with pitchers and a clubhouse stud. Plus he should come cheap. I’d offer him the same amount of money he made last year ($600K) for one season. I believe he’d come here for a chance to win.
The other free agent I’d go after is Danny Bautista of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He can play all 3 outfield positions well and is a top 4th outfielder. But the most important reason I’d try to sign him is the fact that Bautista is a consistent, top notch right-handed pinch hitter. I was blown away when I found out that over the last 4 seasons, Bautista has hit .315 in 92 pinch-hit ABs. That’s damned impressive. In 2001, Bautista’s contract paid $675K. As the bait to sign with Houston, I’d offer him a 2-year deal worth $2.4 million ($1.1 million in 2002, $1.3 in 2003).
Last season Houston hit a couple of homers with the acquisitions of Jose Vizcaino and Orlando Merced. What those guys did in 2001 for this team was absolutely huge and I would try to keep both of them. Merced made $400K last season and I’d double it to $800K with incentives, if reached, to bring the total to $1 million. Vizcaino made $1.5 million on a 1-year deal and this time I’d offer him a 2-year deal. Year one is guaranteed at $1.2 million plus easily reachable incentives to bring it to $1.5 million. The second year I’d make an option year at $1.5 with a $500,000 buyout. Vizcaino is then guaranteed to make $1.7 million with the probability of making $2 million and possibility of making $3 million.
I would also add AAA 3B Morgan Ensberg to the roster and this is not with the intention of burying the kid. In fact, I’d like to see somewhat of a L-R platoon between Morgan and Hank Blalock early on in the season. Ensberg is also quite capable of playing 1B to give Bagwell a needed rest on occasion. He’d fill the role of a RH Daryle Ward on this team, getting somewhere in the neighborhood of 200-250 ABs.
The final roster spot I give to Glen Barker. Why? Well, because it seems as though the guy owns the thing, I suppose. That and I like saying “Albany Flash”. From hence I say we memorialize the 25th spot on the roster at the “Barker”. It’s Dave if you ask me…
The Payroll
Like Drayton, I assume everyone wonders what the heck this is gonna cost. I submit for your perusal… the bottom line:
Jeff Bagwell: $11 million
Pedro Astacio: $9 million
Craig Biggio: $9 million
Dave Mlicki: $5.7 million
Roberto Hernandez: $5.5 million
Brad Ausmus: $5 million
Richard Hidalgo: $5 million
Carlos Beltran: $4 million
Rey Sanchez: $3.25 million
Mike Myers: $1.5 million
Jose Vizcaino: $1.2 million
Danny Bautista: $1.1 million
Orlando Merced: $800,000
Todd Pratt: $600,000
Lance Berkman: $500,000
Octavio Dotel: $500,000
Wade Miller: $500,000
Nelson Cruz: $350,000
Roy Oswalt: $350,000
Glen Barker: $300,000
Carlos Hernandez: $275,000
Jason Jennings: $275,000
Juan Moreno: $275,000
Hank Blalock: $250,000
Morgan Ensberg: $250,000
Total damage to The Grocer’s Wallet: $66.475 million. That’s within less than a million or two of this year’s final payroll. After 2002, Astacio, Mlicki and Hernandez likely walk and that frees up a hair over $20 million in payroll for next season’s increases.
The 40-Man Roster
Obviously the above 25 would have to be included. Among the newcomers, LHP Josh Kalinowski would also have to be added while 1B/OF Jason Botts would not as he is not yet eligible for the Rule 5 draft. That leaves Houston with 14 spots to fill, assuming they will not be selecting a player in the major league phase of the draft, and they will need them all.
These are the additional 14 minor leaguers I would include on the 40-man, assuming all the rest described above has taken place:
C John Buck
2B Felix Escalona
3B Ramon German
2B Keith Ginter
RHP Ryan Jamison
RHP James Lira
C Carlos Maldonado
LHP Greg Miller
RHP Mike Nannini
LHP Darwin Peguero
RHP Nick Roberts
LHP Wilfredo Rodriguez
OF Mike Rosamond
RHP Rodrigo Rosario
That concludes one man’s early wannabe GM opinion of what our beloved Astros should do this off-season. Of course all of this is out the damn window if The Used Car Salesman decides to nuke Montreal and one of the Florida franchises.
I do not envy Gerry Hunsicker in that I realize what he does, and under such an intense microscope, is incredibly difficult. Just doing this on paper was a pain in the ass, much less dealing with the egos and agendas of other GMs in baseball. Of course I greatly envy him his salary and thus would be happy to switch positions with him should he ever wish to go into horse breeding and racing full time.
I’m sure he has my number.
The rest of you can email me at [email protected] with comments or questions. Thanks to everyone last time for being civil. See, it ain’t true that all who ride the Big Freight Train are assholes. We just play like that on TZ.