By Michael N
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on October 18, 2001.
In the early 90’s, how many Astros fans would have thought that after 4 division championships in 5 years the faithful would be in a collective funk, the manager who skippered the team to those titles would be a lame duck and Biggio/Bagwell would be viewed by many Astros fans as the ultimate chokers? It’s amazing to think how quickly the Astros have risen to be amongst the elite franchises in baseball. But equally stunning is to witness the psychological devastation four first-round playoff exits inflicts upon both organization and its fans alike. What the hell is to be done?
Here is one man’s idea were he in contol of the levers and switches.
Off With His Head
The first thing to be done, and it needs to be done immediately after the World Series, is to relieve Larry Dierker from his duties as manager. Dierker is a very bright man and, for the most part, a calm and steadying influence. However, rightly or wrongly, the field manager is the face of the team and this team’s face is none too pretty these days and in much need of a makeover.
No, Larry cannot swing the bats for the team and he cannot make a splitter split to friggin’ Paul Bako. But what he simply must do as manager is maintain the respect of his players and upper management. After attending the Game One playoff post-game press conference I can assure everyone that whatever semblance of respect he had is gone and there is no way, in my estimation, it will return in time to save The Wrangler’s job. So thanks, Dierk, for being the man who led our beloved team out of a veritable wasteland and into prominence. I hope you know most of us will remember you fondly as both a wonderful pitcher and the most successful manager this franchise has ever known. But the time has come to move on.
As for the man who will replace Dierker. It is my hope the person hired has not only the player credentials to earn respect from what veterans remain in Houston but has also spent time in the development trenches – preferrably with Houston – as the Astros will hopefully be turning to younger players in the near future (more on that later). The obvious candidate who fits this bill is Tony Pena. Whether he is Drayton McLane’s choice remains to be seen.
The Stalwarts
During the playoff seasons of 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2001 there were but 5 constants on the field for the Houston Astros – Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Tony Eusebio, Shane Reynolds and Billy Wagner. Let’s take a look at their futures with the Astros.
Craig Biggio is still among the finest leadoff hitters in major league baseball despite his loss of speed. He’s no longer much of an asset in the field, but he’s not horrible, and his grit, fire and perpetually filthy uniform are always fan favorites. Signed for another two seasons, he’ll be back for his 14th season in an Astros uniform.
Jeff Bagwell is not only currently the best first baseman in the National League, he’s the best first baseman in the history of the Senior circuit. 33 years old at the start of next season, Bagwell is still in his prime and under club control until 2007. He’s not going anywhere unless it is to the Hall of Fame while still wearing an Astros’ star.
Tony Eusebio will be a free agent this off-season. A decent backup catcher who primarily serves as caddy for Shane Reynolds, it could very well be that his future in Houston is inextricably tied to that of “Chane”. Regardless, unless he takes a pay cut I cannot see him returning to Houston.
Shane Reynolds’ career in Houston could possibly be summed up by his last two starts with the Astros. If he limits his mistakes on 2-strike counts, such as he did @ St. Louis in winning both the pennant for Houston and his 100th game, he can be a wonderful pitcher. If he cannot limit his 2-strike mistakes, he’ll get lit up by the likes of Rey Sanchez and the aforementioned Bako. Over the last 3 seasons, Reynolds has essentially been a .500 pitcher for Houston and is due to make over $7 million next season with the club holding an option on him for 2003. The brass needs to think long and hard about whether approximately 10% or more of a $65-$70 million payroll needs to go to a 34-year old pitcher who has degenerative disks in his back and has not been a really good pitcher for 3 years now. I say it does not.
As most of you probably know, I don’t much care for relief pitchers. It’s an issue I have that’s probably related to their specialization but, in any event, there is absolutely no good reason why Houston should retain the services of one William Edward Wagner. Yes, he’s an outstanding thrower and a highly effective closer… though he does elicit Fred Sanford-like grabs at the chest in anticipation of the “big one”. No one can doubt his success as an Astro, yet, again, does this team need to be shelling out a hefty amount of the payroll, $7 million or more is what he’ll get in arbitration, for a guy who throws 60 or so innings a season? The argument here is “no”.
Were it up to me, Tough Tony, Shaner and The Kid are all gone. Eusebio walks as a FA, Reynolds is traded for whatever Hunsicker can get for him (possibly in a package with Billy?) and Wagner is dealt for a pot of gold as there is no doubt some GM will pay out the wazoo for him.
The Free Agents To Be
Namely Moises Alou, Vinny Castilla, Mike Jackson and Mike Williams. This is what I’d do with each:
1. Moises Alou, despite the intangibles he brings to the clubhouse and the solid stick at the plate, is gonzo. There is no sense in paying $10 million per year over 3-4 years for a guy who has leg problems, wears out at the end of the season, is no longer more than an average defensive player and cannot run. I wish, chronologically and physically, things were different. Were he not 36 years old next season and it was reasonable to expect him to play 150 games in most of those new contract seasons, then perhaps a deal would make sense. But it’s not and it doesn’t. Offer him arbitration, he’ll decline it and the Astros will receive Class A draft pick compensation.
Gonna miss that sweet, sweet swing Big Mo.
2. Vinny Castilla should be offered a low-ball deal, say 2 years and $6 million. If he accepts, great. He’s relatively inexpensive and a short-termer. If he does not accept, offer him arbitration. Given the lack of power-hitting 3Bs in baseball these days, most likely Castilla will refuse Houston offer to get a longer-term deal elsewhere and the Astros will get Class A draft compensation in return.
3. As for the relievers, Mike Williams should simply be offered arbitration so he can refuse it and sign with someone else. Make no effort to sign him to a contract. Like the previous two situations, Houston would then get draft pick compensation from the team that signs Williams. Mike Jackson could be offered a low-ball deal (1 year, $750,000 plus incentives) as he might accept it to stay at home. If not, let him walk. Do not offer arbitration as he might well accept it and take home more money than Houston would like to pay.
Keeping all 4 of these players would cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $15-17 million next season and the youngest of the bunch is Williams, who will be 34 years old (Moises and Vinny will be 36 and Jackson 37). Unless Uncle Drayton has a philathropic epiphany with regard to his player payroll next season, that’s an unreasonable amount of money to spend on players most likely on the downsides of their careers. More prudent would be to take a $4-5 million hit in the player development budget and sign the 3-6 additional high-round draft choices the Astros will receive in compensation for losing their aging stars.
An Eye To The Future
The Houston Astro franchise is blessed with a solid core of veterans in the lineup (I include Lance Berkman and Richard Hidalgo among Biggio, Bagwell and Ausmus). It is also blessed with 2 incredibly solid young righthanded pitchers (Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt), who will duel for the foreseeable future as the #1 guy in the rotation, and a dominant closer of the future in Octavio Dotel. But perhaps the biggest advantage enjoyed by Houston is one of the deepest pools of talent currently in the minor leagues and several young players who have tasted success on the major league level. Not all of these young players/prospects will go on to successful major league careers. In fact, probability suggests most of them will not do so. To its credit, though, Houston has not only a fantastic record of player development over the last 5-6 they have also been able to use prospects in trade to bring major league talent to the big league club.
This being the case, my view is that Hun should forget trying to plug the big holes in the team with marginal veteran players and try to build a team that will remain largely intact for the next 2-4 years with younger players from within or plucked from other organizations. If such moves are made this off-season, Houston should still be able to compete for another division title in 2002 as well as add a key veteran, if necessary, at the July 31 trade deadline. Doing as suggested would also aid Houston in the transition to the coming day when Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell no longer lead this team while also remaining a very competitive club in the present.
What To Do On Offense?
Let’s look at the areas of need among the everyday players. Houston lacks a true center fielder, a real shortstop and a third baseman (regardless what happens with Vinny Castilla). They also need to improve on team speed, defense and try to add a left-handed bat or two. In my mind, there are three players Houston should seriously target this off-season to solve some short and long-term needs of the team.
1. Carlos Beltran (OF – Kansas City Royals): A 24-year old, switch-hitting, true CF with outstanding tools. Already among the 5 best CFs in the game. He will not be cheap.
Cost – Daryle Ward, Julio Lugo, Tom Shearn and Scott Linebrink to KC for Beltran and RHP Roberto Hernandez.
Why it works for KC – The Royals have a good store of young starting pitching on the way over the next 2-3 years. What they lack is power, left-handed bats, bullpen arms and, since Neifi Perez is already on the outs, middle infielders. They could also stand to get rid of an aging closer who makes a lot of money. Ward plays some OF, DH and 1B until the Royals make a decision on Mike Sweeney and this deal should allow KC to come up with the jack to keep the town’s fave at Kauffman Stadium for years to come. Lugo immediately becomes the 2B for KC if Carlos Febles cannot stay healthy, the SS if rookie Angel Berroa cannot handle the duties or serves as a valuable utility player in the INF/OF. Solid, hard-throwing righties Shearn and Linebrink fill needs in the KC bullpen.
Why it works for HOU – Obviously Beltran becomes the everyday CF for the Astros. This will be his first year of arbitration eligibility and I expect he’ll be due a hefty payday. Houston should try to avoid this by giving him a 3-4 year deal now (though that will be tough to get from Scott Boras). Hernandez serves in the same capacity as Mike Jackson and Mike Williams as the veteran who can play many roles in the bullpen, and taking on his salary allows Houston to swing the deal for the real targeted prize. Hernandez also becomes interesting bait for a July deadline deal should one be necessary.
Why it might not work – Trading established players like Beltran and Hernandez for virtual “unknowns” could be perceived as another giveaway by the Royal faithful and piss off Sweeney. Houston would be trading 4 for, essentially, 1 as Hernandez would not likely be in Houston’s long-term plans. Two of those traded by the Astros are very talented young players who, if not starting, provide excellent (and cheap) insurance as well as two strong young arms who would be competing for a spot in the Astro bully in 2002. A bully that’s going to be in need of arms.
2. Hank Blalock (3B – AA Tulsa – Texas Rangers): Concensus prospect of the year in the Texas League. Extremely advanced skills at the plate, much moreso when one considers he’s a 20-year old lefty with good power. Concerns about defense at 3B are virtually gone.
Cost – Tim Redding + future considerations.
Why it works for TEX – The Rangers have a deep store of young hitting talent, what they lack is young arms. Redding is still a bit raw but there is no mistaking his physical talent and inner drive to succeed. And despite his lack of refinement, Redding absolutely dominated AA hitting in a hitter’s league. With patience, Redding is likely to become a solid workhorse stater… something the Rangers desperately need.
Why it works for HOU – The Astros are in the opposite situation. They have a deep store of young arms but lack left-handed hitters. Blalock more than fills that bill. You may say, what of Morgan Ensberg? Well, I like Morgan personally and as a player. But the fact is he has at least 2 big strikes against him. First, he’s already 26 years old and has no major league experience. That does not portend well for him. Secondly, he’s another right-handed stick and does not run as well as Blalock. Quite frankly Blalock is already the better hitter at age 20 and he’s no slouch with the glove. Hank is clearly the better option.
Why it may not work – These are a pair of top 2-3 prospects on each team. Losing a player like that from your system, even if in return for a player of comparable value, is a difficult thing to do. You know your kid. You’ve had him for years. And you don’t really know the other kid as well as you might hope.
3. (In the likely case of Vinny Castilla not returning) Rey Sanchez acquired as a free agent.
Cost – 2 years, $6 million with a club option on a third season.
Why it works for HOU – Two rookies on the right side of the infield is more than the hearts of the young Houston starters or most Astros fans could likely stand. The solid defense and clubhouse presence of Sanchez could very well prove worth the investment, despite his wet noodle of a bat.
Why it may not work – Houston has already tabbed Adam Everett as the shortstop of the future and he will be 25 years old next season with less than a handful of major league ABs to his credit. Everett is either going to be given a shot or he will be traded as Houston now has at least a couple more young SSs (particularly Tommy Whiteman, who will play at AA Round Rock next season) on the move up the ladder.
In Sum
I grant everyone that each of these deals would be difficult to pull off, much less all three. However, each is a reasonable offer and if it could be done the Astros would have an excellent balance of youth and experience, right and left-handed bats, more speed and a better defensive ballclub. This is my proposed lineup for the 2002 Houston Astros with Opening Day age, position and “handedness” of each player:
2B Craig Biggio (36) – R
CF Carlos Beltran (25) – S
1B Jeff Bagwell (33) – R
LF Lance Berkman (26) – S
RF Richard Hidalgo (26) – R
3B Hank Blalock (21) – L
C Brad Ausmus (32) – R
SS Rey Sanchez (34) – R
Let’s contrast this lineup with last year’s: Biggio, Bagwell and Berkman are holdovers at their spots. Beltran replacing Lugo in the 2-hole is a huge upgrade. Hidalgo substituting for Alou is a downgrade if we get the Reeshard of ’01, a wash or slight upgrade if we get the ’00 version. I’ll venture he plays somewhere between the two levels and it’s a slight downgrade. The real key to whether Houston has improved the offense or has taken a slight downturn is just how ready Hank Blalock is for major league pitching.
Now for some perspective on young Mr. Blalock: over the last several seasons I’ve been fortunate enough to see some great young hitters come through the Texas League. Players in the majors like Berkman, Ward, Beltran, Troy Glaus and JD Drew as well as a host of other players soon to join the major league ranks. Hank Blalock is as good, maybe better, than any of them at his stage of development. What he has done at his age is remarkable and considering how quickly a lot of young players who exhibit plate discipline have made the adjustment to major league ball (Berkman, Pujols… to name but a couple), I have little doubt Blalock could do the same. At worst I see him putting up a comparable batting average to Castilla (.270) with a higher OBP (.320) and comparable slugging (.492).
Should Blalock play to that level and everyone else turn in seasons comparable to last year, Houston’s offense would clearly be improved. It’s faster and more balanced. Two of the free-swinging, high strikeout guys (Castilla and Lugo) have been replaced with more patient or contact hitters (Blalock and Sanchez). The OBP of the team should rise and there’s hope Ausmus will remember he’s playing at Enron and start hitting again.
Yes, it is possible Blalock and the rest of the guys might not play to expected levels and thus the “O” slips somewhat. But one thing that will definitely be improved over last year with this lineup is the defense. Beltran is a true CF and Hidalgo moves to RF where he is more of a weapon with his good arm. Sanchez is an obvious improvement at SS over Julio Lugo and his steadiness should positively impact Craig Biggio at 2B and the young Blalock at 3B (the only possible downgrade v. last year).
Whether or not this team hits as expected in the final stat lines, and my expectation is that the numbers will be better than the 2001 version, the more important factor is the balance, flexibility, speed and defense. This 2002 lineup of Astros has more dimensions to it and can beat an opponent in more ways that simple yackball.
Next week we’ll look at the pitching staff and the bench as well as tie all this together.