Thirteen games. That’s how many the Central Division-leading Astros are scheduled to play in September against the Cubs, who trail by four games, and the Cardinals, who trail by six games. Indeed, other than three games at San Francisco, the Astros will spend the last two weeks of the season battling Chicago and St. Louis.
At 79-55, the Astros are on pace to win 96 games, the third-highest total in club history. This is a huge reversal from last season, when the Astros won only 72 games. At this point in 2000, their record was almost a mirror opposite at 56-78.
Late last summer, the Astros righted their ship, going 16-12 in each of August and September. The Astros started their resurgence even earlier this summer. On June 17 the Astros were 33-33, eight games behind the Cubs. The Astros rallied to 48-38 by the All-Star break, closing to three games behind the Cubs.
Since the All-Star break the Astros are 31-17, gaining seven games on Chicago. Since June 17, their last date at .500, the Astros are 46-22, a .677 winning percentage, and have made up 12 games in the standings. To put that in perspective, that’s two games better than the 44-24 mark the Mariners, baseball’s best team, have posted over that span. The Astros have ridden an 11-week surge to the top record in the National League and the second-best record in baseball.
The Astros are 23-18 in one-run games this year. At this point last season the Astros were 10-27 in one-run affairs. That difference in one-run contests marks an 11-game improvement over 2000, or almost half of the 23-game overall improvement over 2000 that the Astros have accomplished this season.
In August the Astros went 1-1 vs. New York, 3-0 vs. Montreal, 2-1 at Atlanta, 2-1 at Florida, 1-2 vs. Chicago, 4-0 vs. Pittsburgh, 2-1 at Philadelphia, 2-1 at Pittsburgh, 3-0 vs. Cincinnati, and 1-0 at Milwaukee. In intradivision games in August, the Astros won 11 and lost 3. On the season the Astros have a 39-23 record vs. the Central Division, three games better than the 37-27 intradivision mark posted by the Cubs.
In September the Astros play two at Milwaukee, three at Cincinnati, four vs. Milwaukee, three vs. San Francisco, three at St. Louis, three at San Francisco, three vs. Chicago, three vs. St. Louis, and four at Chicago. That’s 22 games vs. division opponents in September, a quarter of the intradivision contests for the season. Can the Astros keep winning? If they play anywhere near as well as they did in August, they should. Here are their ERA and runs per game by month:
Month W L ERA R/G -------------------------- April 12 12 5.23 5.38 May 14 13 4.19 5.00 June 15 12 5.28 5.70 July 17 11 4.58 5.79 August 21 7 2.86 4.75
Besides flat-out great pitching in August, the Astros dispelled the notion that they can’t win at home. Here’s the month-by-month table with home/road splits:
-------Home------- -------Road------- Month W L ERA R/G W L ERA R/G ---------------------------------------------- April 8 7 5.50 6.20 4 5 4.74 4.00 May 2 7 4.56 4.22 12 6 4.02 5.39 June 8 5 4.83 6.69 7 7 5.73 4.79 July 9 7 4.78 5.50 8 4 4.32 6.17 August 12 3 2.50 4.93 9 4 3.28 5.54
The Astros now have a 39-29 home record and a 40-26 road record. Enron Field is still a bandbox, but Astros pitchers didn’t seem to care in August, excelling at home and away.
On the Mound
The Astros led the league in ERA in August. On the season here’s how they rank in ERA:
Split ERA Rnk --------------------- Overall 4.41 12th Home 4.43 11th Road 4.38 5th Starters 4.83 11th Relievers 3.59 2nd 1st Half 4.80 12th 2nd Half 3.70 4th
Since getting rid of Jose Lima (1-2 W-L, 7.30 ERA) and Scott Elarton (4-8, 7.14), the Astros have started to solidify a rotation that includes soon-to-be-25-year-old Wade Miller (14-7, 3.83), just-turned-24-year-old Roy Oswalt (12-2, 2.83), 21-year-old lefty Carlos Hernandez (1-0, 1.02 in 17.7 innings pitched), Shane Reynolds (11-10, 4.55), and recently acquired Pedro Astacio (2-1, 3.14 in 28.7 innings pitched with Houston).
Miller and Oswalt give the Astros a pair of young hurlers who know what they’re doing on the mound. Between them they have 26 wins, nine losses, a 3.41 ERA, and 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Both have been groundball pitchers, with a groundball/flyball ratio of 1.41 for Miller and 1.37 for Oswalt. Miller has pitched at least six innings in 22 of 26 starts, and Oswalt has pitched at least six innings in 13 of 16 starts.
Hernandez has been brilliant in three starts since joining the club August 15. If the Astros feel Hernandez is too inexperienced or Reynolds or Astacio are unhealthy, they can turn to other in-season acquisitions Dave Mlicki (4-1, 4.87 in 57.3 innings pitched with Houston) and lefty Ron Villone (5-2, 5.05 in 41 innings pitched with Houston). The Astros have also recalled from AAA New Orleans 23-year-old Tim Redding (3-1, 5.79 in 37.3 innings pitched).
What the Astros have for the first time in a long while are pitching options. The rotation presents them with a number of interchangeable parts, and the bullpen is even more versatile. The Astros have four relievers who could fill the closer role for most teams: Billy Wagner (32 saves, 2.94), Mike Jackson (17 holds, 4.17), Mike Williams (two holds, 2.13 in 12.7 innings pitched with Houston, 22 saves, 3.67 in 41.7 innings pitched with Pittsburgh), and the superlative 25-year-old Octavio Dotel (11 holds, 2.28 ERA).
After a couple of years searching for his niche, Dotel may have found it in the bullpen. As a reliever this season Dotel is 5-2 with a 1.29 ERA, 102 strikeouts, 44 hits, 21 walks, and one home runs in 69.7 innings. Out of the bullpen Dotel has limited opponents to a .177 batting average, .246 OBP, and .225 slugging average.
Dotel has allowed one run in 29 appearances since June 18 and no runs in 20 appearances since July 8. Since June 18 Dotel has struck out 14.8 batters and allowed 6.4 baserunners per nine innings pitched. Since July 8 Dotel has struck out 14.6 and allowed 6.0 baserunners per nine innings pitched.
Besides Wagner, Jackson, Williams, and Dotel, in middle relief the Astros have Nelson Cruz (3-2, 3.86) as well as Mlicki and Villone when they’re not starting. If the Astros hold on to make the playoffs, their bullpen, which is probably the best part of a strong team, could play a crucial role in their success.
At the Plate
While the offense cooled off in August, it remains among the best in the National League. Here’s how the Astros rank in runs per game, OBP, and slugging average:
Split R/G Rnk OBP Rnk Slg Rnk ----------------------------------------- Overall 5.32 2nd .348 2nd .460 2nd Home 5.59 2nd .355 2nd .481 2nd Road 5.05 4th .341 2nd .440 3rd 1st Half 5.52 2nd .352 2nd .474 2nd 2nd Half 4.96 5th .341 4th .436 7th
Moises Alou continues his attempt to become Houston’s first batting champion, while Lance Berkman is fifth in the league in batting average. Joined by Jeff Bagwell, the Nos. 3, 4, and 5 hitters for the Astros have a combined .323 batting average, .407 OBP, .592 slugging average, 99 doubles, 88 home runs, 273 runs, and 300 RBI. This trio has scored 38 percent and driven in 42 percent of the team’s runs. Craig Biggio continues to be the league’s premier table-setter, pacing the circuit with a .383 leadoff OBP.
Here’s how the starters fared in August as well as their numbers on the season:
-----August----- -----Season----- Player Avg OBP Slg Avg OBP Slg ------------------------------------------------ Biggio, 2B .266 .360 .394 .300 .386 .472 Lugo, SS .230 .289 .284 .261 .317 .383 Bagwell, 1B .283 .424 .515 .289 .396 .560 Berkman, LF .259 .390 .471 .335 .430 .637 Alou, RF .293 .375 .451 .349 .405 .580 Hidalgo, CF .292 .354 .438 .277 .358 .460 Castilla, 3B .253 .315 .515 .271 .321 .518 Ausmus, C .312 .341 .512 .225 .278 .341
In August Bagwell reached 30 doubles for the ninth time and 30 home runs, 100 runs, and 100 RBI each for the seventh time in his career. He should reach 100 walks for the sixth time in September. Craig Biggio is almost to 20 home runs for the fifth time and 100 runs for the sixth time. Lance Berkman has surpassed 30 home runs and 100 RBI and will soon reach 100 runs. Alou is close to the 100-RBI plateau as well.
Here are the season totals for the key bench players, pitchers, pinch hitters, and the team as a whole with runners in scoring position and in close-and-late situations:
Player Avg OBP Slg -------------------------------- Merced, OF .288 .353 .471 Vizcaino, SS .280 .326 .338 Ward, OF .261 .327 .476 Eusebio, C .260 .331 .420 Pitchers .117 .143 .140 Pinch Hitters .198 .295 .335 Scoring Pos .272 .367 .445 Close and Late .247 .338 .412
In batting average, the Astros are 11th in the league in pinch hitting, sixth with runners in scoring position, and 12th in close-and-late situations. Here are individual situational statistics for 2001:
--Scoring Pos--- --Close & Late-- Player Avg OBP Slg Avg OBP Slg -------------------------------------------- Biggio .382 .519 .447 .235 .350 .368 Lugo .160 .219 .247 .200 .250 .236 Bagwell .347 .462 .718 .203 .349 .333 Berkman .320 .422 .625 .316 .447 .658 Alou .323 .427 .411 .369 .455 .631 Hidalgo .258 .359 .424 .208 .276 .377 Castilla .294 .363 .505 .216 .286 .353 Ausmus .206 .269 .309 .167 .184 .208 Merced .353 .395 .559 .267 .353 .500 Vizcaino .333 .333 .359 .341 .356 .364 Ward .242 .358 .394 .300 .417 .667 Eusebio .250 .419 .458 .227 .261 .364
Biggio is fourth and Bagwell is 14th in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position. Alou is fifth in batting average in close-and-late situations.
On the Basepaths
Relative to the past, the Astros hardly run at all. They have 52 stolen bases in 93 attempts, a mediocre success rate of 56 percent.
In the Field
The Astros rank seventh in the league with a .983 fielding percentage and 10th with 129 double plays. Astros catchers have allowed a league-low three passed balls and have thrown out 44 of 99 baserunners, second in the league behind Cincinnati’s 46-percent kill rate.
On the Farm
The New Orleans Zephyrs, 81-56, lead the AAA Pacific Coast League’s Eastern Division by 10.5 games. Third baseman Morgan Ensberg is batting .314 with a .399 OBP, .601 slugging average, and 23 home runs. Second baseman Keith Ginter is at .266 with a .380 OBP, .457 slugging average, and 15 home runs. Shortstop Adam Everett was batting .249 with a .330 OBP, .365 slugging average, and 24 stolen bases in 29 attempts before being called up.
The Round Rock Express, 35-33, are second by five games in the AA Texas League’s Western Division. The Michigan Battle Cats, 42-24, lead their division by three games in the A Midwest League; the Lexington Legends, 40-27, are second in their division by 3.5 games but won the division’s first half in the A South Atlantic League; and the Pittsfield Astros, 41-29, are third in their division by 7.5 games in the A New York-Penn League. The Martinsville Astros, 31-37, are third in their division by three games in the Rookie Appalachian League.
The Astros probably can’t count on their pitching being quite as good in September as it was in August, but the offense should expect to do better. The string of games against the Cubs and the Cardinals is a two-edged sword: it gives the Astros a chance to control their own destiny by facing head-to-head the teams they need to beat. It also makes them vulnerable: they won’t stand still the last half of September. They’ll either gain ground or lose it.