What have they done?
Like April, the Astros excelled the first half of the month, going 11-4 through May 17. The rest of the month they went 3-9, including an eight-game losing streak. The offense and pitching both declined during the collapse, but given that the staff continued to post a decent ERA, the line-up was chiefly to blame:
Dates R/G ERA --------------------- 5/01-5/17 5.33 3.73 5/18-5/31 4.58 4.78
Combining April and May, the Astros were 19-7 the first halves and 7-18 the second halves. Here are their monthly numbers thus far in 2001:
Month W L R/G ERA ------------------------- April 12 12 5.38 5.23 May 14 13 5.00 4.19 ------------------------- Total 26 25 5.18 4.68
In May, the Astros were 1-1 at New York, 3-0 at Montreal, 1-2 vs. Philadelphia, 3-1 at Cincinnati, 3-0 at Chicago, 1-2 vs. Cincinnati, 0-3 vs. San Diego, 0-3 at Los Angeles, and 2-1 at San Diego.
Where have they done it?
The Astros won only two of nine home games in May, but went 12-6 on the road. Their ERA wasn’t awful in either place: 4.01 on the road and 4.56 at Enron. But the Astros allowed 5.56 runs per game at home, giving up nine unearned runs in nine home games. The offense scored just 4.22 runs per game at home while scoring 5.39 runs per game on the road in May.
For the season, the Astros have an 11-14 home record and 16-11 road record. They’re scoring 5.64 runs per game at home, third in the league, and 4.93 runs per game on the road, fifth. Their ERAs are 5.23 at home, 14th, and 4.24 on the road, sixth.
These are the park effects for Enron through June 1. They include the statistics of the Astros and their opponents at Enron and elsewhere:
Venue R/G Avg OBP Slg HR% --------------------------------------- Enron 5.78 .279 .349 .478 4.61 Elsewhere 4.74 .261 .329 .439 4.03 --------------------------------------- Ratio 1.22 1.07 1.06 1.09 1.14
Enron continues to play as a hitters’ park, inflating batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging average. Most of all, runs continue to be scored and home runs continue to be hit at a notably higher pace at Enron than elsewhere.
Where do they stand?
The Astros ended the month where they began it, in
fourth place:
Team W L Pct GB May R RA XW-XL ------------------------------------------------ Chi 31 20 .608 ---- 16-11 233 209 28-23 StL 29 23 .558 2.5 17-11 262 230 29-23 Mil 28 24 .538 3.5 15-13 269 213 32-20 Hou 26 25 .510 5.0 14-13 264 262 26-25 Cin 20 32 .385 11.5 6-22 222 268 21-31 Pit 17 34 .333 14.0 8-20 195 274 17-34
Will the Cubs and Brewers stick around? Will the Astros stick around? Neither St. Louis nor Houston, the preseason favorites, have bolted out in front of the rest of the division. Through May 31, the Astros were 17-10 in divisional play. The Cubs and Cardinals were 14-9 and 17-10, respectively. Those three clubs have feasted on Milwaukee, 15-15, Cincinnati, 9-18, and Pittsburgh, 10-20.
In 12 one-run games in May, the Astros went 5-7. For
the season, they’re 6-9. The Astros were 2-14 in one-run games through the first two months of 2000.
How’s the pitching?
Their 4.19 ERA in May was a vast improvement over April’s 5.23 and easily the best month Astros pitchers have enjoyed since leaving the Astrodome. The bullpen was outstanding in May:
Pitcher ERA W-L Sv-Opp Hld ------------------------------- Jackson 1.32 1-1 0-0 5 Oswalt 1.93 2-1 0-0 0 Wagner 2.13 2-1 7-8 0 Dotel 2.57 1-0 0-2 0 Powell 3.00 0-0 0-2 1 Cruz 4.60 0-0 1-1 3
The bullpen’s 3.48 ERA for the season is fifth in the league. The starters are another story. Their 5.31 ERA is 14th in the league. May wasn’t pretty for most of them:
Pitcher ERA GS W-L IP IP/GS --------------------------------------- Reynolds 4.10 6 4-2 41.7 6.94 Miller 4.62 6 3-1 39.0 6.50 Lima 5.57 5 0-1 21.0 4.20 Bottenfield 5.84 5 1-3 24.7 4.94 Elarton 6.14 5 1-1 29.3 5.86
It’s a good thing the relivers have been up to the task, because the starters have had trouble going deep into games. The rotation has been shaken up since the end of May, so perhaps the bullpen will see its workload decline somewhat. Here’s how the pitchers stand on the season through June 2:
Pitcher ERA W-L IP H/9 BB/9 BR/9 SO/9 HR/9 ---------------------------------------------------------- Oswalt 1.80 3-1 20.0 5.9 3.2 9.0 8.1 0.5 Jackson 2.92 1-1 24.7 6.9 6.6 10.6 4.7 1.1 Wagner 2.92 2-2 24.7 6.2 4.0 10.2 12.0 0.7 Miller 3.40 7-2 76.7 7.4 2.9 10.3 8.2 1.3 Dotel 3.83 2-3 40.0 9.0 4.7 13.7 9.0 0.5 Cruz 4.20 0-1 30.0 8.1 2.1 10.2 8.1 1.8 Powell 4.28 1-1 27.3 8.9 4.3 13.2 8.6 1.3 Bottenfield 5.16 2-4 45.3 9.3 2.6 11.9 6.9 2.6 Reynolds 5.69 5-4 55.3 11.2 2.0 13.2 4.9 1.5 Elarton 6.14 4-4 70.3 10.1 4.0 14.1 6.4 1.8 Lima 7.14 1-2 46.7 13.1 2.7 15.8 7.1 1.9
How has the bullpen performed in the clutch? Not bad, generally. Here are the numbers on the season. They include batting average, OBP, and slugging average allowed:
Pitcher --Scoring Pos- -Close & Late- --------------------------------------- Oswalt .133/.278/.133 .150/.292/.200 Jackson .174/.333/.304 .230/.288/.295 Wagner .136/.286/.182 .185/.299/.277 Dotel .238/.333/.357 .324/.395/.441 Cruz .273/.360/.727 .250/.353/.500 Powell .235/.325/.529 .386/.440/.614
How’s the offense?
After scoring 5.38 runs per game in April, the Astros posted 5.00 runs per game in May, fifth in the league for the month. For the season they remain among the top five in the league in runs, batting average, home runs, walks, OBP, and slugging average. Lance Berkman was hot in May, but most of his teammates weren’t:
Player Avg OBP Slg HR R RBI --------------------------------------- Ausmus .250 .280 .347 1 9 2 Bagwell .263 .397 .515 7 17 20 Biggio .294 .351 .451 3 14 15 Castilla .264 .286 .434 1 6 5 Lugo .243 .278 .364 3 17 7 Berkman .378 .504 .778 8 18 27 Hidalgo .225 .315 .363 3 10 11 Alou .309 .358 .491 4 16 20
Everyone else, relative to what he should be doing, was off in May, with Julio Lugo and Richard Hidalgo straying farthest from expectations. Even Jeff Bagwell, whose .397 OBP and .515 slugging average would be fine for most players, was subpar by his standards. For the season the Astros are still posting strong performances, however. Numbers are through June 2:
Player Avg OBP Slg 2B 3B HR R RBI BB --------------------------------------------------- Ausmus .231 .277 .314 8 1 1 15 9 10 Bagwell .282 .410 .538 9 1 13 39 36 38 Biggio .302 .395 .442 13 0 5 34 23 24 Castilla .283 .302 .483 6 0 2 7 6 2 Lugo .255 .299 .413 5 1 8 34 17 13 Berkman .346 .472 .676 13 3 14 40 42 41 Hidalgo .292 .361 .522 9 1 10 27 36 16 Alou .355 .396 .561 12 1 6 26 34 12 Ward .291 .365 .547 7 0 5 9 18 9 Vizcaino .250 .301 .294 1 1 0 10 3 4 Eusebio .234 .308 .383 1 0 2 4 6 4 Merced .229 .333 .486 0 0 3 8 6 6 Barker .133 .222 .133 0 0 0 6 1 2 Hayes .107 .212 .107 0 0 0 1 1 4 Pitchers .110 .152 .160 2 0 1 6 3 3
The Astros are third in the league with 7.33 runners left on base per game. The pinch hitters are batting .205 with a .337 OBP and .384 slugging average, and several players continue to struggle with runners in scoring position and in close-and-late situations:
Player --Scoring Pos- -Close & Late- ---------------------------------------- Ausmus .186/.239/.209 .111/.111/.111 Bagwell .273/.431/.545 .179/.351/.286 Biggio .324/.468/.382 .241/.353/.448 Castilla .278/.263/.667 .167/.231/.250 Lugo .143/.191/.214 .200/.200/.233 Berkman .275/.422/.608 .353/.488/.824 Hidalgo .288/.357/.542 .343/.385/.714 Alou .386/.463/.455 .370/.452/.630 Ward .300/.432/.533 .357/.471/.857 Vizcaino .308/.308/.308 .357/.357/.357 Eusebio .300/.364/.700 .200/.200/.500 Merced .167/.333/.167 .125/.417/.500 Barker .000/.200/.000 .000/.000/.000 Hayes .000/.000/.000 .000/.125/.000 ---------------------------------------- Team .253/.351/.428 .247/.339/.464 League .266/.356/.424 .249/.327/.386
The Astros have done almost nill on the bases. Through May 31 they’d stolen 20 bases and been caught 19 times, which represents a net loss in run production.
How’s the fielding?
The Astros are sixth in the league in fielding percentage, third in outfield assists, and second in preventing stolen bases. Brad Ausmus and Tony Eusebio have allowed 42 stolen bases and thrown out 50 runners, giving them a kill rate of 55 percent. Individually, only Ausmus stands out at his position. Julio Lugo has climbed to seventh in the league in zone rating at shortstop, so maybe his defense isn’t as poor as some fans like to believe.
How’s the farm?
Morgan Ensberg continues his assault on Pacific Coast League pitching at New Orleans. He’s batting .308 with a .384 OBP, .607 slugging average and 16 home runs. Keith Ginter is adapting to AAA as well, posting a .293/.389/.534. Adam Everett is struggling badly, however, at .207/.332/.329. Tony McKnight is 7-3 with a 3.72 ERA at New Orleans. Tim Redding at AA Round Rock is 10-1 with a 1.34 ERA.
What’s next?
The Astros will spend much of June against the National League West, with six interleague games against the Rangers thrown in. They play nine intradivision games as well. June’s schedule includes three vs. Los Angeles, three at Colorado, three at Texas, three at Milwaukee, three vs. Texas, three vs. Colorado, four vs. Cincinnati, three at Arizona, and two at Milwaukee.
That the Astros managed to survive their eight-game slide and remain within five games of first place was a blessing, particularly given that the Cubs won 11 straight games to close the month. They’re not likely to stay in the race all season playing .500 every month, however. June is as good a time as any to turn it around.