By Michael N
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on June 4, 2001.
The on-field success of the Houston Astros since the mid-1990s has consistently put the team in the bottom half of the first-year player draft order. Almost as consistent has been the Astros’ draft philosophy of selecting high-velocity arms and college seniors since Scouting Director David Lakey took over control of the draft preparation process in 1997. With last season’s debacle on the field, the Astros have the luxury of the 10th overall selection in this year’s draft. However, even with the much higher pick, I expect little change in organizational draft philosophy.
Part of the reason I suspect there will be no change in approach is that the Astros have had a very productive run of drafts – so why mess with a good thing? Though perhaps a more concrete reason is the fact that Lakey and Gerry Hunsicker are somewhat financially handcuffed. Houston is consistently among the bottom of the pecking order in terms of number of players actually signed and in bonuses paid. That said, hardly anyone can argue against the Astros’ return on draft investment with players like Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt already providing huge contributions in the majors and players like Morgan Ensberg, Keith Ginter, Tim Redding and Jason Lane seemingly ready to contribute in the very near future. Of all the players mentioned, only Berkman ($1 million) and Oswalt (reportedly $500,000) received anything like big bonuses. Yet those figures pale in comparison to the average of nearly $2.5 million in bonuses paid to the first ten players selected last year. That $2.5 million figure would exactly double the highest bonus paid to any Astros draftee in franchise history (Robert Stiehl, $1.25 million) and that fact, along with The Grocer being a bottom-line kinda guy, is why it’s safe to assume Houston will not be drafting a player known to want much more than $2-$2.5 million.
Signability does not necessarily mean taking a player of lesser quality, however. At least it doesn’t in this year’s draft. There are a number of high-quality college seniors who grade out on the scouting scales as worthy of a high first round selection. And because college seniors lack the leverage a high school kid or college sophomore or junior has, they are typically considered an easier sign. Most draftniks I’ve heard or read and every scout I’ve talked to remain convinced Houston will stay near to home and select either high-school flamethrower Colt Griffin (RHP, Marshall TX) or college senior Kenny Baugh (RHP, Rice University). Either pitcher would be a very fine selection at #10 and neither is considered to be a difficult sign, so the logic behind the predictions seems to be sound. But I’m going to go against conventional wisdom and hope that the Astros select another player, should he be available – Kent State 1B/OF John VanBenschoten.
Normally I’m not a person to advocate drafting for needs or looking for toolsy players. If VanBenschoten is available, however, Houston is in much greater need of outfield help given the apparently inevitable departure of Moises Alou next year and the fact there isn’t a lot of OF depth in Houston’s minor league system (apologies to Jason Lane). This year’s draft crop of outfielders is not all that deep whereas the pitching crop is even deeper than last year. There will be plenty of very good arms available when Houston’s turn comes in the second and third rounds. So if VanBenschoten is available and he’s signable (have heard nothing to say he’d be a difficult sign), I’d take him and focus on pitching later. I don’t get to do the drafting, though. So my best guess, based on the history of Astros’ drafts in the last four years, tells me they most likely will take Rice Owl Kenny Baugh.
Scouting reports on the three players mentioned as possible selections:
Kenny Baugh – 6’3″, 190lb. right-handed pitcher.
Very good control. Fastball (92-94), curve and change all considered to be at least major league average to above average pitches. An intelligent guy and very competitive. One of only 10 college pitchers with 40 wins and 400 strikeouts in his career. Probable fast track to majors, might only need a year to year and a half in the minors… which means he’ll get a least two with Houston.
2001 stats – 12-2 W-L, 119IP, 88H, 40BB, 135K, 1.96ERA.
Colt Griffin – 6’4″, 210lb. right-handed pitcher.
Truly outstanding fastball (upper 90s to 100). Questionable secondary pitches. Fresh arm as he did not become a regular pitcher until his senior year. Very competitive, good athlete with solid work ethic but likely a long-term development project.
2001 stats – 8-1 W-L, 59IP, 17H, 35BB, 110K, 1.19ERA.
John VanBenschoten – 6’4″, 210lb. right-handed hitting outfielder.
Stunning 5-tool athlete. Great speed (6.6 in the 60) despite his size and has huge power (led NCAA in homers, scouting grade in area of Sosa-type power). Served as Kent State’s closer with his 93MPH heater. Might need to shorten stroke a bit to cut down on Ks but has shown ability to control the strikezone.
2001 stats – 210AB, 93H, 14 2B, 6 3B, 30HR, 79RBI, 55BB, 50K, 22SB, .443AVG.
(all stats through regular season)
Now I’d like to take a look back at the 2000 draft for a moment. Some may remember that I correctly tabbed Robert Stiehl as the Astros first round pick. I got lucky. Post-draft, Allan Simpson of Baseball America and other draft gurus called the Astros’ selections questionable and full of reaches with the Astros taking a converted catcher (Stiehl) in the first round, Chad Qualls in the second and a bunch of raw arms like Anthony Pluta and Cory Doyne in later rounds.
The early professional performances of the Astros’ picks tell me Simpson and the like are no longer questioning the wisdom of the selections, particularly of the top 3 picks:
1. RHP Robert Stiehl – 44IP, 23H, 51K, 2.25ERA.
2. RHP Chad Qualls – 59IP, 50H, 62K, 2.90ERA.
3. RHP Tony Pluta – 55.1IP, 43H, 58K, 2.60ERA.
Others of note:
6. SS Tommy Whiteman – batting .303/.390/.500 for Lexington.
8. RHP Cory Doyne – described as having the best arm in Appalachian League last year.