In The Baseball Book 1991, Bill James, examining the question of whether Nolan Ryan’s strikeout record would ever be broken, wrote, “Because more batters are using whip-handled bats, strikeout rates are still going up. They went down for several years, in the mid-seventies, but they’re going back up now, have been for several years.”
The trend noted by James a decade ago has continued unabated, as strikeout rates have climbed with home run totals. Last winter’s decision by Major League Baseball to instruct umpires to call strikes above the waist appears to have sent strikeout rates even higher. The chart below depicts the changes in a number of statistics for the major leagues as a whole over the last 10 years:
Year Avg OBP Slg HR/PA BB/PA SO/PA SO/BB R/G -------------------------------------------------------- 1992 .256 .322 .377 1.89 8.52 14.66 1.72 4.12 1993 .265 .332 .403 2.31 8.66 15.07 1.74 4.60 1994 .270 .339 .424 2.66 8.94 15.88 1.78 4.92 1995 .266 .337 .417 2.60 9.09 16.23 1.79 4.85 1996 .270 .340 .427 2.80 9.08 16.54 1.82 5.04 1997 .267 .337 .419 2.64 8.93 17.06 1.91 4.77 1998 .266 .335 .420 2.69 8.74 16.94 1.94 4.79 1999 .271 .345 .434 2.91 9.43 16.41 1.74 5.08 2000 .270 .345 .437 2.99 9.59 16.48 1.72 5.14 2001 .261 .332 .426 3.02 8.82 17.46 1.98 4.84
To the extent MLB hoped to reduce scoring, it has perhaps succeeded. Batting average, OBP, slugging average, walks per plate appearance, and runs per game have all fallen. Home runs remain at historic levels, however, and so do strikeouts. Almost one in every seven hits is a home run. More than one in every four outs is a strikeout.
The difference between 2001 and previous years may shrink as the season enters the warmer months. Over the last decade, however, statistics for the major leagues as a whole in April have not differed considerably from those the rest of the season. Hence, there is reason to believe that the trend this spring will continue into the summer and fall.
Whether a game increasingly dominated by home runs and strikeouts, the ultimate expressions of hitter and pitcher power, persists in attracting the interest of fans remains to be seen. MLB still hasn’t returned to its pre-strike high in attendance per game. With another labor dispute potentially on the horizon, even greater power hitting and power pitching might not be enough to sustain MLB’s popularity.
Enron Too Small for Little Ball
The reaction to last Tuesday’s 3-2 loss to the Phillies emphasized that the power vs. power game isn’t universally popular. Behind by one run in the bottom of the ninth inning, the Astros refused to bunt with Jeff Bagwell on first base, no outs, and Lance Berkman, Moises Alou, and Richard Hidalgo coming to bat. Berkman and Alou struck out and Hidalgo grounded out to the second baseman, stranding the tying run.
Nonetheless, was a bunt in order with so much lumber on deck? Little ball is often described as playing the percentages, and the percentages don’t counsel bunting in that situation. The following chart shows the average chance of scoring with a runner on first base, no outs, and a runner on second base, one out, from 1994 to 1998 in the National League:
Year 1st/0 Out 2nd/1 Out -------------------------- 1994 43.5% 41.5% 1995 44.1% 41.8% 1996 45.5% 41.9% 1997 44.0% 42.2% 1998 42.7% 39.3%
Trading an out for a base didn’t increase the chances of scoring. Moreover, these percentages don’t take into account the quality of the upcoming hitters or the offensive environment. Bunting with a pitcher in the Astrodome is a more attractive proposition than bunting with a slugger in Enron Field. Especially since Berkman hasn’t laid down a bunt in five professional seasons, swinging away was in order.
Larry Dierker’s little ball tendencies on offense changed some in 2000, but the difference wasn’t as vast as fans might assume:
Bunt Success Sqz H&R Success Year Att Rate Att Att Rate -------------------------------------- 1997 96 80.2% 7 131 27.5% 1998 79 79.7% 5 106 34.0% 1999 106 81.1% 5 93 35.5% 2000 77 79.2% 4 87 34.5%
The Astros were 13th in bunt attempts and 10th in success rate in 2000. Dierker loved the hit and run, though. The Astros were fourth in hit-and-run attempts and ninth in success rate.
Playing conservatively with runners and outs at Enron with the Astros’ line-up in today’s offensive climate isn’t poor managing. Indeed, it’s good managing to bear in mind the context of when and where the game is played. Surrendering an out is more costly at Enron than at most other parks: the last two seasons the Astros and their opponents have scored .245 runs per out at Enron and .213 runs per out elsewhere.
Furthermore, little ball is less necessary at Enron, where the chances of obtaining a hit, hitting for extra bases, and not making an out are all greater than at other parks when swinging away. The exchange involved in a bunt is the same in any park: an out for a base. But that equation makes less sense when an out is more costly and advancement is easier to come by.
Unless the hitter is awful, the pitcher is unhittable, or the other team is totally off guard, little ball is a questionable proposition, particularly at Enron, in the era of power vs. power.
Which Vinny Will Arrive?
Vinny Castilla brings to mind Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde. Playing for the Rockies, Castilla hit more than 30 home runs annually from 1995 to 1999, including 40, 40, and 46 from 1996 to 1998. Leaving Colorado after the 1999 season, Castilla joined the Devil Rays and hit just eight home runs in 109 games in 2000 and 2001.
The Astros are reportedly close to acquiring Castilla at a bargain price to share third base with Chris Truby. Here is a comparison of Castilla and Truby so far this season:
Player Avg OBP Slg -------------------------- Castilla .215 .247 .344 Truby .217 .289 .450
His track record gives little hope that Castilla will replicate his Rockies performance in Houston. The following table shows Castilla’s performance at and away from the Mile High City over his career per 162 games:
Location Avg OBP Slg 2B HR R RBI BB ------------------------------------------------- Colorado .347 .386 .633 35 43 119 130 38 Elsewhere .256 .301 .430 23 26 63 84 36
Chances are Castilla would be out of baseball had MLB not awarded Denver an exansion franchise to begin play in 1993. The hope for the Astros is that Castilla can return to the form he had playing in Coors. After all, Enron Field is a hitters’ park that could help rejuvenate a right-handed slugger like Castilla.
But as Astros fans like to point out and as the statistics suggest, Enron pales in comparison to Coors as a hitters’ park. In 2000 and 2001, the Astros and their opponents have hit about 18 percent more home runs per at-bat and scored about 16 percent more runs per game at Enron than elsewhere.
From 1998 to 2000, the Rockies and their opponents hit about 64 percent more home runs per at-bat and scored about 63 percent more runs per game at Coors than elsewhere. Maybe Castilla will enjoy enough of a surge at Enron to outhit Truby, not a terribly difficult feat at this point.
Given how little the Astros will pay him, perhaps Castilla is a worthwhile gamble in this regard. But expecting Castilla to approach Coors form is terribly optimistic. Meanwhile, Morgan Ensberg continues to compile numbers at AAA New Orleans that exceed Truby’s best seasons in the minors.