By Knoxbanedoodle
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on May 11, 2001.
The recent explosion of little ball talk on the TZ got me thinking about patterns in the Astros offense over the past couple years. Admittedly, when I started looking into the numbers I did so with the aim of discovering that little balls pays off, that Weaver-ball is overrated and Dierker isn’t getting the most of his offensive tools by standing around and waiting for the three run bomb. Even in a stadium like Enron there is a definite need to occasionally be able to manufacture a run, and, going further, perhaps there is a radical new way to blend the two diametrically opposed styles of baseball into a cool new battle plan. Here’s what I found:
In 1997 the Astros ranked 2nd in the NL with 171 stolen bases and scored 777 runs – just divine enough a number to squeak by with a division championship. The Astros had 75 sac bunts or hits that year, 27 of them by position players and 48 by the pitching staff.
In 1998 we ranked 2nd in the NL with 155 stolen bases and scored 874 runs – then a team record. We dipped to 53 sac bunts or hits in ’98 – which is the low for the ‘Stros from 97-00. Position players had only 13, the remaining 40 made up for by the staff.
In 1999 we ranked 3rd in the NL with 166 stolen bases and scored 823 runs – and I don’t care what anyone says, this was my favorite Astros team of all time (though all time for me is less time than many of you may have experienced). We climbed back up to 79 sac bunts or hits in ’99, the team high for this span. As in ’97, the position players had 27 of them, and the pitching staff a cool 52.
In 2000 we stole 114 bases, good for 5th in the NL and scored a whopping 938 runs. Of course, we sucked. It surprised me to learn that in the cozy confines of the EFUS we had 69 sac bunts or hits, 28 by position players and 41 from the pitchers.
If you add the sacrifices and stolen bases for each team, it stacks up like this:
’97-246
’99-245
’98-208
’00-183
This is also the list of lowest-to-highest team run totals, so the less bunts and stolen bases the more runs. This is nothing new, but I was hoping against hope that I might find something else.
Thusfar in 2001, through 31 games, the Astros have collected just 16 stolen bases in 25 attempts and 10 sac bunts or hits. This puts us on pace to snake 83 bags (47 CS) and have 52 SHs. Needless to say, these would be new lows for the post-96 ‘Stros. If everything continues as it has (which it won’t) we’ll score 872 runs. Coincidentally, on that mythical path of perfect continuity, the opposing teams will also score 872 runs, which would obviously make us a .500 team in Pythagorus’ universe.
Someone in the TZ recently made a disparaging comment comparing us to the Cleveland Indians. In truth, I’d love to be more like the Indians. With stellar up the middle defense, speed and savvy baserunners at the top of the order, and good power the rest of the way, the Indians, IMO, have been the model of offensive success for the new age.
The Indians in 1997 ranked 6th in the AL with 118 SBs and scored 865 runs. In ’98 they were 3rd in the junior circuit with 143 SBs, and tallied 850 runs. In 1999 the Tribe led the American league with 147 stolen bases, and scored an absurd 1,009 runs. In 2000 they dropped to 5th in the league with 113 bags swiped and a paltry 950 runs. In each year they stole less bases and scored more runs than the Astros (except in ’98, when we outscored them). In 2000, the difference in stolen bases and runs between the two teams was miniscule: one SB and 12 runs, yet our records were nearly mirror opposites. They won 90 games, we lost 92. We had a 5.41 team ERA. They had 4.84.
Thusfar, in one less game, the Indians have exactly the same amount of stolen bases as the ‘Stros. They have a slugging percentage smaller by 1%, but an OBP better by .016. For direct comparison the ‘Stros have a team OPS of .824 and the Indians of .839. Our beloved ‘Stros have walloped 17 more dingers and collected two more sac bunts or hits. So why are they 21-9 while we’re 16-15? They’ve scored 27 more runs and held their opponents to 24 less than the Astros. The Indians team ERA is (take a deep breath and sit down) 3.93.
Conclusion: We are becoming the Cleveland Indians, we’re just not as good yet at what they do as they are. 31 games into the season, we suck at hitting with runners in scoring position, we’re no good at manufacturing runs, and our pitching leaves boatloads to be desired.
I am of the opinion that most of these numbers will improve, especially batting with RISP and (once Scotty turns it around) team ERA – which will go light years to improve our playoff chances. Also, if Reynolds and Lima continue to improve (big IF, indeed) I expect we’ll end up with more than 52 sac bunts. But will that matter? If we’re going to continue on this path, our goal should be to emulate the Indians as much as possible.