How did they do?
The Astros streaked out of the gate 8-3 but went 4-9 the rest of the way. The differences between the two halves of the month, particularly on the mound, are stark:
Dates R/G ERA --------------------- 4/03-4/15 5.64 3.83 4/16-4/30 5.15 6.47
They went 3-0 vs. Milwaukee, 1-2 vs. Pittsburgh, 2-1 at Milwaukee, 2-1 at St. Louis, 0-2 at Pittsburgh, 2-1 vs. St. Louis, 1-2 vs. Atlanta, 1-2 vs. Florida, and 0-1 at New York. They finished the month 12-12.
Where did they do it?
Astros pitchers are still getting smacked around at Enron Field. The only team in the league with a worse home ERA is, surprise, the Rockies. They’re in the middle of the pack on the road. Unfortunately, the offense has sputtered out of town:
Split W L R/G ERA ----------------------- Home 8 7 6.20 5.50 Away 4 5 4.00 4.74
The Astros and their opponents have scored 12.13 runs per game at Enron and 8.89 runs per game elsewhere. They’ve hit 4.65 home runs per 100 at-bats at Enron and 4.83 home runs per 100 at-bats elsewhere.
Where do they stand?
The Astros are tied with the Cardinals for fourth place in the NL Central:
Team W L Pct GB R RA XW XL ----------------------------------------------- Chicago 15 9 .625 --- 106 90 14 10 Cincinnati 14 10 .583 1.0 126 121 12 12 Milwaukee 13 11 .542 2.0 128 111 14 10 Houston 12 12 .500 3.0 129 133 12 12 St. Louis 12 12 .500 3.0 124 125 12 12 Pittsburgh 9 14 .391 5.5 85 108 9 14
The good news is St. Louis is the team most people believe the Astros need to beat to win the division. The Cardinals haven’t started out hot either. The Astros have taken four of six from them so far. The teams have 10 games against each other remaining, four in July and six in September. The Astros are 10-7 in the division. They’re 1-2 in one-run games. They were 0-4 in one-run games at this point last season.
How’s the pitching?
After a good start, it fell apart. The bullpen hasn’t been quite as bad as most people believe, although control hasn’t been a strong suit:
Split ERA W L H/9 BB/9 SO/9 ----------------------------------------- Starters 5.65 11 10 10.0 3.5 7.7 Relievers 4.50 1 2 8.4 4.3 7.5
Of course the story of the season so far is Wade Miller. He leads the league in batting average allowed and is fourth in OBP allowed, third in slugging average allowed, fourth in strikeouts, and tied for third in ERA. He’s also a hair better than his teammates in the rotation thus far:
Pitcher ERA W L RS IP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 ----------------------------------------------------- Miller 2.15 4 1 6.0 37.7 5.3 3.1 10.5 Bottenfield 4.50 1 1 5.2 12.0 10.5 2.3 5.3 Elarton 5.71 3 3 7.8 34.7 9.3 3.1 7.0 Dotel 6.19 1 2 5.6 16.0 10.7 6.8 7.9 Lima 8.61 1 1 5.9 23.0 13.7 3.5 7.4 Reynolds 10.54 1 2 9.2 13.7 17.1 2.6 4.0
Looking at the last four ERAs on the list, it’s a miracle the Astros have a .500 record. Two weeks ago the question was whether Jose Lima, Kent Bottenfield, or Octavio Dotel should move to the bullpen. Things have gotten much worse. Shane Reynolds is allowing 17.7 hits per nine, while Dotel is walking 6.4 batters per nine between starting and relieving. Scott Elarton hasn’t been sharp, either.
Worries about the No. 5 spot in the rotation aside, at least two pitchers besides Miller need to step up their performances soon if the Astros hope to be above .500 at the end of May.
Particularly with the loss of Doug Brocail, there are some individuals in the bullpen, that means you, Mike Jackson and Jay Powell, who need to get their acts together as well if the Astros hope to contend:
Pitcher ERA Sv BS IP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 ------------------------------------------------- Dotel 0.00 0 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Linebrink 0.00 0 0 5.0 5.4 5.4 7.2 Cruz 2.63 0 0 13.7 7.2 0.7 5.3 Wagner 4.09 5 5 11.0 7.4 3.3 10.6 Bottenfield 4.15 1 0 8.7 4.2 4.2 8.3 Jackson 5.40 0 2 10.0 7.2 6.3 9.0 Powell 5.65 0 0 14.3 10.0 5.7 6.3 Lima 6.75 0 0 2.7 16.9 0.0 10.1 Franklin 6.94 0 0 11.7 13.1 6.9 6.2
Control freak Nelson Cruz has been a pleasant surprise. At some point maybe somebody will realize that a right-handed minor-leaguer might not do much worse pitching with his left arm than Wayne Franklin. Franklin’s splits, although based on a miniscule sample, don’t suggest that he’s much of a specialist against anyone:
Franklin PA Avg OBP Slg ------------------------------- vs. Left 19 .412 .474 .588 vs. Right 40 .303 .425 .606
Even if the bullpen hasn’t been that bad overall, what about in clutch situations? Here they are in the late innings of close games:
Pitcher AB H HR RBI BB SO Avg OBP Slg ------------------------------------------------------ Powell 25 11 0 6 5 5 .440 .516 .560 Wagner 23 5 1 2 4 9 .217 .333 .348 Jackson 20 5 1 3 2 5 .250 .348 .400 Cruz 9 1 0 0 0 1 .111 .111 .111 Lima 6 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 Franklin 4 3 0 0 0 0 .750 .750 .750 Bottenfield 3 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 Dotel 3 1 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .333
Powell has made 10 appearances, all of them one to two innings in duration. He’s allowed a baserunner in all but one game and an earned run in all but two games. At least he’s consistent.
How’s the hitting?
Mostly as advertised. They’ve struggled on the road, but overall they’re third in the league with 5.38 runs per game. As expected, the heart of the order is crushing the ball:
Player Avg OBP Slg 2B 3B HR R RBI BB --------------------------------------------------- Lugo .288 .345 .513 1 1 5 16 10 3 Biggio .289 .418 .411 5 0 2 18 6 14 Bagwell .307 .431 .580 6 0 6 20 14 20 Berkman .322 .449 .609 5 1 6 22 15 18 Alou .500 .523 .775 5 0 2 9 12 3 Hidalgo .319 .373 .615 7 1 6 14 22 5 Ausmus .182 .250 .234 4 0 0 4 6 7 Truby .238 .313 .524 1 1 7 10 18 10
Lugo has shown more power than plate discipline and might be a better candidate to bat No. 2 than No. 1. Biggio has recovered nicely from injury, although he hasn’t regained his pop. Ausmus has been wretched, however, and Truby’s inability to reach base keeps him mired at the bottom of the line-up.
After Daryle Ward, the bench thins out considerably, not that anyone else has played enough to make much of a mark:
Player Avg OBP Slg 2B 3B HR R RBI BB --------------------------------------------------- Ward .341 .400 .512 4 0 1 3 10 3 Spiers .333 .500 .333 0 0 0 0 0 0 Eusebio .294 .333 .529 1 0 1 1 4 1 Vizcaino .258 .343 .355 1 1 0 4 2 3 Merced .227 .261 .500 0 0 2 4 3 1 Barker .167 .214 .167 0 0 0 3 1 1 Hayes .111 .273 .111 0 0 0 0 0 2 Pitchers .041 .113 .041 0 0 0 1 1 2
Pitchers are supposed to hit poorly, but not this poorly. National League pitchers as a group are batting .125 with a .160 OBP and .146 slugging average, which is near-Ruthian compared with the hole in the line-up Astros hurlers have created. Somebody get them some extra batting practice.
What about situational hitting? The Astros haven’t taken full advantage of their numerous on-base opportunities:
Split Avg OBP Slg -------------------------------- None On .274 .342 .446 Runners On .274 .383 .513 RISP .222 .355 .381 RISP/2 Outs .184 .333 .316 Close and Late .193 .277 .318 Bases Loaded .231 .333 .500 Pinch Hitting .188 .333 .281
Here’s how the regulars compare with runners in scoring position:
Player AB H RBI Avg OBP Slg ------------------------------------ Alou 10 4 8 .400 .500 .400 Ward 15 5 10 .333 .444 .600 Hidalgo 30 9 14 .300 .378 .667 Bagwell 17 4 5 .235 .462 .235 Truby 22 5 11 .227 .296 .591 Lugo 15 3 6 .200 .250 .400 Ausmus 21 4 6 .190 .261 .238 Biggio 11 2 1 .182 .500 .182 Berkman 23 3 7 .130 .310 .261
The Astros are leaving 7.7 runners on base per game, second-highest in the league. Clearly the offense could be more efficient.
Besides bad situational hitting and the glaring hole at catcher, the real threat to the Astros’ success is the prospect of an injury to Richard Hidalgo. While Ward can fill in for Moises Alou, Jeff Bagwell, or Lance Berkman if one of them gets hurt, he can’t replace Hidalgo in center field. That means starting Glen Barker, which replaces a vital cog in the line-up with another weak hitter.
Baserunning has been a minor factor this season, with the Astros stealing nine bases in 17 attempts.
How’s the fielding?
The Astros are eighth in the league with a .983 fielding percentage. The pitchers are giving the fielders plenty of work on the ground, as their groundball/flyball ratio of 1.27 ranks sixth. They’ve only managed to convert 61.1 percent of their balls in play into outs, however, which is second-to-last.
Ausmus has helped shut down the running game. The Astros are tied for third with 50 percent of opposing baserunners thrown out. The outfielders have made four assists, which puts them in the middle of the pack.
Individually, here’s how they rank at each position in fielding percentage, successful chances per game, and zone rating, which is the percentage of balls in the fielder’s area turned into outs:
Player FPct Rnk SC/G Rnk ZR Rnk -------------------------------------------- Ausmus 1.000 1st N/A N/A N/A N/A Bagwell .995 6th N/A N/A .786 13th Biggio .983 9th 4.84 10th .746 16th Lugo .970 9th 5.28 2nd .818 12th Truby .919 11th 2.48 8th .725 10th Berkman 1.000 1st 2.02 7th .767 14th Hidalgo 1.000 1st 2.12 13th .813 13th Alou 1.000 1st 1.87 9th .882 10th
Not much to write home about. No wonder they’re not very efficient with balls in play. They’d better hope the hitting holds up.
How’s the farm?
AAA New Orleans is just barely above .500 at 13-11, while AA Round Rock is 18-7 behind superb pitching. The A teams are Lexington at 18-7 and Michigan at 15-9. Some players to watch:
Player Lvl Avg OBP Slg 2B 3B HR R RBI BB ------------------------------------------------------- Ensberg AAA .259 .340 .576 3 0 8 18 16 10 Everett AAA .247 .347 .435 8 1 2 12 10 9 Ginter AAA .250 .309 .460 8 2 3 11 15 5
Keith Ginter appears to be having a little trouble adjusting to the Pacific Coast League. Adam Everett is hitting much better than he was at this point last season. The pitchers:
Pitcher Lvl ERA W L IP Sv ------------------------------------- Kessel AAA 4.64 1 2 21.3 0 Lidge AA 2.14 2 0 21.0 0 Linebrink AAA 16.62 1 2 13.3 0 McKnight AAA 3.45 3 1 31.3 0 Oswalt AAA 4.35 2 3 31.0 0 Redding AA 1.55 5 1 40.7 0
There a number of other pitches having fine seasons so far at New Orleans and Round Rock. Given the nightmare taking place in Houston, some of them should get their chance. Tony McKnight had his last season and made good use of it. He almost certainly can’t be worse than Lima at this point.
What’s next?
The Astros have 10 more intradivision games in May. They play two at New York, three at Montreal, three vs. Philadelphia, four at Cincinnati, three at Chicago, three vs. Cincinnati, three vs. San Diego, three at Los Angeles, and three at San Diego.
May 2000 was when the Astros really imploded in one-run games, going 2-10 in those contests. As poor as their play was the second half of this April, they’re not likely to repeat last May’s performance.