The basepaths have treated the Astros unkindly so far this season. Through Sunday’s win against St. Louis the Astros had stolen seven bases in 14 attempts. Only time will tell whether they continue their lead-footedness, but last year indicated that the Astros no longer possessed the fleetness of past seasons.
From 1994 to 1998 the Astros placed league runner-up in steals every season, averaging 174 thefts per 162 games over that span. They finished third in 1999 with 166 steals, only eight behind league-leading San Diego. In 2000 the Astros fell to the middle of the pack, placing fifth with 114 steals, 54 off pace-setting Florida.
This raises the question whether the move from the Astrodome to Enron Field affected baserunning. Presumably the Astros felt the need to take off less often at a bandbox like Enron than at a cavern like the Dome. Compare the Astros at the Dome from 1994 to 1999 and at Enron in 2000 per 81 games:
Team SB CS SB% HR Avg OBP Slg R/G --------------------------------------------------- 1994-1999 87 33 .72 65 .269 .344 .410 4.84 2000 57 32 .64 135 .280 .361 .506 6.23
With the threat of the long ball twice as likely at Enron, the compulsion to play little ball likely wavered. Moreover, the dirt paths at Enron apparently offered a less conducive surface for stealing bases than the turf track at the Dome, as the Astros succeeded less often in their new home.
Looking at the home numbers tells only half the story, though. Comparing the Astros at home and on the road from 1994 to 1999 and in 2000 per 81 games reveals something else:
----Home--- ----Road--- Astros SB CS SB% SB CS SB% -------------------------------------- 1994-1999 87 33 .72 86 32 .73 2000 57 32 .69 57 20 .74
Not only did the Astros steal far fewer bases at Enron than at the Dome, they ran much less often on the road in 2000 than in years past. In other words, the team and not the ballpark appeared to make the difference. Further emphasizing this point, observe the running game of opponents in Astros home and road games from 1994 to 1999 and in 2000 per 81 games:
----Home--- ----Road--- Opponents SB CS SB% SB CS SB% -------------------------------------- 1994-1999 50 27 .65 53 23 .70 2000 54 20 .73 57 12 .83
Astros opponents showed little difference in their thieving strategies at the Dome, at Enron, and elsewhere. Part of this might be that Astros opponents comprise many different teams, so their base-running tendencies tend to even out. Nonetheless, it is curious that while the Astros used to run much more often and successfully than their opponents, this was not the case in 2000:
---Astros--- --Opponents- Year SB CS SB% SB CS SB% ----------------------------------- 1994 124 44 .74 85 36 .70 1995 176 60 .75 120 49 .71 1996 180 63 .74 115 55 .68 1997 171 74 .70 92 57 .62 1998 155 51 .75 75 43 .64 1999 166 75 .69 94 43 .69 2000 114 52 .69 111 32 .78
Maybe skipper Larry Dierker altered his approach to baserunning not based on Enron but because he had such a line-up of sluggers. The Astros’ road statistics from 1994 to 2000 show that the 2000 edition had more power than previous offenses:
Year Slg HR% R/G ---------------------- 1994 .442 3.19 5.27 1995 .429 2.59 5.92 1996 .394 2.46 4.80 1997 .408 2.60 4.99 1998 .423 2.91 5.33 1999 .438 3.68 5.29 2000 .449 4.00 5.35
While the 2000 Astros had a better slugging average and home-run percentage than their predecessors on the road, previous line-ups scored as many as or more runs per game than the sluggers of 2000. This indicates a different kind of offense, not necessarily better but more prolific in home runs and, hence, less dependent on steals to advance runners.
The league as a whole witnessed the decline of stolen bases over the last decade. From 1981 to 1990, National League teams averaged 145 stolen bases and 65 caught stealing per 162 games. From 1991 to 2000, they averaged 120 stolen bases and 54 caught stealing per 162 games. The decline in thieving occurred alongside a power outburst:
Decade SB CS SB% HR HR% Slg ------------------------------------ 1980s 145 65 .69 118 2.14 .375 1990s 120 54 .69 152 2.78 .407
The pivotal seasons were 1993 and 1994. In 1993 league stolen bases per 162 games fell to their lowest point since 1976 and the league home-run percentage rose to its highest point since 1987 and second-highest point since 1970. More dramatically, in 1994 the league home-run percentage rose to its highest point since 1961 while league stolen bases per 162 games remained at their lowest point since the ’70s.
So the Astros, giving up their ’60s pitchers’ park for a ’90s hitters’ park, likewise exchanged their reliance on basestealing for an emphasis on slugging. With a home like Enron and a roster including Jeff Bagwell, Moises Alou, Richard Hidalgo, Lance Berkman, and Daryle Ward, this should be no surprise.
Little ball might still play a role in late-inning, one-run situations, but waiting for the sluggers to move runners along makes sense for a team that set the league record for home runs last season. In most circumstances, the potential gain and likelihood of a stolen base does not outweigh the risk of a caught stealing, which erases an RBI opportunity and reduces subsequent plate appearances by making an out.
If anything, the Astros should probably exercise even more caution as their mediocre performance on the basepaths so far in 2001 suggests.