To the disappointment of many Astros fans, for a second consecutive season shortstop Adam Everett departed spring training headed for AAA New Orleans. His .130 batting average in exhibition games likely didn’t impress Astros management.
Everett, 24, has yet to play a regular-season game at the major-league level. Given that the Astros traded veteran center fielder Carl Everett — who batted .300 with 34 home runs and 108 RBI for the Red Sox last season — in exchange for Everett and lefty A-ball pitcher Greg Miller in December 1998, patience is wearing thin for the farmhand to justify his cost.
Glove Ready, Bat Not
Despite committing 25 errors last year, by all accounts Everett’s glove is ready for the big leagues. Baseball Prospectus calls his fielding “fabulous” and “fantastic.” David Rawnsley of Baseball America compliments Everett’s “range, hands, and arm” in STATS’ The Scouting Notebook 2001. John Sickels writes in STATS’ 2001 Minor League Scouting Notebook that Everett is “one of the better defensive shortstops in all of baseball.”
If the prospect watchers are unanimous in their opinion that Everett can field superbly, they are equally skeptical of Everett’s skills at the plate. Sickels suggests that Everett “won’t be more than an adequate regular in any event if he can’t improve his hitting.”
Everett entered the 2001 season with a career .256 batting average, and that has fallen as he has climbed through the minors: .296 in rookie ball in 1998, .263 in AA in 1999, and .245 in AAA in 2000. In Everett’s defense, New Orleans is a pitchers’ park, and Everett did have a much better second half than first half last year.
Even if Everett never bats better than .260 or so, does he deserve a spot on a major-league roster? With his glove, he just might. But also important is the fact that Everett has some fine secondary offensive skills that people tend to overlook.
First, Everett can take a walk. Everett drew 75 walks in 126 games last year and 41 walks in 98 games in 1999. In his three professional seasons, Everett has drawn 84 walks per 162 games. Throw in his tendency to get hit by pitches — he was hit 11 times in 2000 and 10 times in 1999 — and you have a player who averages 100 times on base per 162 games aside from his batting average.
Of course that doesn’t translate into 100 walks plus hit by pitch at the major-league level, where pitchers have better control and would be much more likely to come after him, but knowledge of the strike zone is an asset in any league. Everett’s plate discipline has made his OBP 100 points higher than his batting average both last year and over his
minor-league career. He posted a .414 OBP the last two months of 2000.
Second, Everett has doubles power. Last season he led the Zephyrs with 25 two-baggers. At Trenton in 1999 he hit 11 doubles and 10 home runs. While he’ll never be mistaken for a slugger, Everett might be someone who could prosper from the nooks and crannies of Enron Field’s outfield.
Third, Everett runs well. He stole 21 bases in 26 attempts in 1999 and 13 bases in 17 attempts in 2000. He’s stolen 36 bases in the minor leagues at a 78-percent clip. Add that to his ability to wind up on first base via walks and hit by pitch, and Everett might find himself on second base not infrequently.
Somewhere between Oz and Bogar Jr.
Everett’s glove and his secondary offensive assets — walks, doubles, and stolen bases — are the same kinds of skills had by a soon-to-be Hall of Fame shortstop whose offense didn’t fully blossom until he was 30.
While everyone remembers Ozzie Smith’s 13 Gold Gloves and his speed on the basepaths, few remember the offensive characteristics that differentiated him from other light-hitting, slick-fielding shortstops. Smith hit 402 doubles and drew 1,072 walks in his 19 seasons, an average of 25 doubles and 67 walks per 162 games.
In his MVP-deserving best season in 1987, Smith hit 40 doubles, drew 89 walks, and stole 43 bases, compiling a .392 OBP. Given his wizardry in the field, Smith posted one of the finest seasons for a shortstop in baseball history. He also delivered some other years where his secondary skills turned a subpar performance into a positive contribution.
This is not to say that Smith was an offensive powerhouse or that Everett is going to be the player Smith was. For all the raving about Everett’s glove, he would be hard-pressed to approach Smith’s defensive records. Smith led the league in fielding categories 30 times, second in baseball history only to Bill Mazeroski’s 33.
And Everett almost certainly isn’t going to steal 580 bases like Smith did. But Smith and Everett appear to share the same strengths and weaknesses. Smith’s .262 career batting average doesn’t begin to express his full offensive value, much less the total impact he had on his teams’ won-loss records given his splendid defense.
The Padres gave Smith the full-time shortstop job at 23 in 1978. With no prior major-league experience, Smith played 159 games, batting .258 with 17 doubles, 47 walks, and 40 stolen bases. He led the league in sacrifice hits and, in the field, successful chances per game, i.e., range factor.
It was in 1985, at 30, when Smith began a nine-year span in which he posted a .281 batting average and averaged 26 doubles, 68 walks, and 36 stolen bases per season. He won eight consecutive Gold Gloves during that stretch. Particularly in the offensive context of the time, Smith was a useful hitter at No. 1, 2, or 8.
If the Astros are fortunate, Everett can put similar skills to work for him. Like his glove, his walk rates already appear to be major-league ready. While it would be nice for Everett to make a strong showing in the Pacific Coast League and convince management that he should be starting for the Astros later this season, what’s the rush? It’s better that he gets to Houston ready than quick.
Opening Day 2002 Everett will be 25, a little late to be debuting, but he won’t be an old man. If he’s simply awful — if he can’t hit any better than Tim Bogar — then the Astros will be hard-pressed to keep him in the line-up. But some patience is advised. Like the Wizard of Oz, not every player fulfills his offensive potential in his mid-20s.
The odds are overwhelmingly against him being the next Ozzie Smith, but it’s not probable he’ll be Bogar Jr., either. Bogar’s walk rate in his six minor-league seasons was little better than half Everett’s, and his OBP was 40 points worse. Take a look at the difference per 162 games:
Player Avg OBP Slg 2B 3B HR R RBI BB HPB SB CS --------------------------------------------------------------- Bogar .259 .323 .339 25 3 5 69 58 49 6 13 9 Everett .256 .364 .367 28 3 10 99 60 84 16 24 7
And that was with Bogar getting three extra years of seasoning and leaving the minor leagues two years older.
Stop Living in the Past
As for the critics railing against Everett to hurry up and justify the trade that brought him here: get over it. Carl Everett is gone. The Astros’ remaining outfielders posted OBPs and slugging averages — Moises Alou (.416/.623), Lance Berkman (.388/.561), and Richard Hidalgo (.391/.636) — similar to or better than his (.373/.587).
At the end of last season he would’ve either departed as a free agent or, if he’d received a contract similar to the three-year, $21-million deal the Red Sox gave him, the Astros likely wouldn’t have signed Hidalgo, who’s four years younger, for the long term as they did.
Trades are about future value, which isn’t easy to estimate. Maybe Adam Everett will never become a shortstop of major-league quality. Maybe Greg Miller, who’s just 21 and has a 26-16 record and 3.70 ERA in four seasons in the low minors, will blow out his arm. Maybe Carl Everett will continue to be an all-star. Nobody knows right now, and nobody will know for some time.