The good news for the Astros is the 2000 season is over. The bad news is some of the problems that plagued them, the lack of quality pitching in particular, might not be behind them. On that note, the following are some numbers that give a glimpse into what the 2001 season possibly holds.
Reasons to Be Optimistic
42-33: The Astros’ record after the All-Star break
Following a disastrous first half as the worst team in baseball, the Astros recovered nicely, posting a .560 winning percentage that was tied for fifth-best in the National League in the second half. That winning percentage translates into a 91-71 record over a full season. There may not be such a thing as momentum, but the Astros showed after the break that when they put it all together, they can rake.
6: The number of runs the Astros were outscored by their opponents
A team outscored by its opponents 944-938 might expect to reach an 80-82 record rather than the 72-90 posted by the Astros. In other words, the Astros played almost to the level of a .500 team despite finishing nine games worse. This doesn’t mean a thing in the standings: 90 losses are 90 losses. But a team losing 90 games as an underachiever is more promising than a team losing 90 games as an overachiever.
A big part of that underachievement was their 15-31 record in one-run games, including a ghastly 4-18 mark on the road. One-run games are a crapshoot. Last year the Yankees (20-18), Oakland (21-19), Seattle (15-22), Atlanta (18-18), and San Francisco (18-22) all struggled in one-run games despite fine play overall. This is because clubs are most vulnerable to chance when one run is the deciding factor.
From 1900 to 1999, all teams with a .600 or better winning percentages posted a .633 overall, a .686 in blowouts, but a .580 in one-games. This is not to say the Astros were a good team. Far from it. But it suggests that poor records in one-run games are reflective of awful luck, the kind of randomness that hopefully doesn’t strike two seasons in a row. If luck evens out, it should help the Astros.
7, 13, 37: Craig Biggio, Billy Wagner, and Shane Reynolds
The Astros didn’t sign Alex Rodriguez or Mike Hampton. Their free-agent acquisitions consisted of Jose Vizcaino, Charlie Hayes, Mike Jackson, and Kent Bottenfield. Their blockbuster trade was for Brad Ausmus, Doug Brocail, and Nelson Cruz. Thus, the biggest new names not on the active roster at the end of last season are three all-stars returning from injuries.
Despite finishing the season runner-up in the majors in leadoff OBP, Biggio suffered a poor first half. He was heating up in July (.309/.358/.500) before landing on the disabled list for the first time in 1,800 career games. Even on a rebuilt knee Biggio should remain a premier table-setter. Much of his value lies in drawing walks and getting hit by pitches, skills largely unrelated to physical wear and tear.
Through his first 15 starts in 2000, Reynolds was 6-3 with a 3.31 ERA, even posting a 3.57 ERA in Enron in his six games there. From June 24 until his season ended July 29, he was 1-5 with a 10.91 ERA. Reynolds won’t be ready to begin the season, thus missing his annual honor of starting on Opening Day. On a team starved for pitching, Reynolds’ return can’t come soon enough.
Two years ago, Wagner compiled one of the finest seasons ever by a closer, with 15 strikeouts per nine innings, a 1.57 ERA and 39 saves in 42 chances. He was near unhittable vs. lefties (.167/.208/.212) and even better vs. righties (.128/.192/.209). Elbow pain limited his use in the 1999 playoffs and led to a 6.18 ERA and mid-June end to his 2000 season. His velocity is back, but his control is the key.
25: The Astros’ number of blown saves
Why is this a good thing? Because if Wagner is healed, he should reduce that number considerably. From 1997 to 1999, with Wagner healthy and closing full-time, the Astros converted 71 percent of their save opportunities. Last year, with Wagner pitching hurt the first half and on the disabled list the second half, the Astros converted just 55 percent of their save opportunities.
The Astros had 55 save opportunities in 2000. Over 55 opportunities, the difference between 71 percent and 55 percent is nine saves. Of course, not every blown save leads to a loss, but the Astros were just 3-21 in games with blown saves last year. If Wagner can return the bullpen to its past success, it could mean more than a handful of games in the standings and make the difference in a close division race.
35-27: The Astros’ record against the Central Division
That means the Astros were a wretched 37-63 against everyone else. Last year featured 62 intradivision games, but under the new unbalanced schedule in 2001 the Astros will play 22 more. If the Astros can play comparably well this year against their lowly division foes, that could translate into four or five games in the standings.
The caveat is that St. Louis and Cincinnati were 37-25 and 34-29, respectively, in intradivision games, so they hope to feast on the rest of the division themselves:
Team W L Pct ------------------------ St. Louis 37 25 .597 Houston 35 27 .565 Cincnnati 34 29 .540 Milwaukee 33 30 .524 Pittsburgh 27 35 .435 Chicago 21 41 .339
The question is which of St. Louis, Cincinnati, and the Astros can take most advantage of the Brewers, Pirates, and Cubs.
Reasons to Be Skeptical
5.41: The Astros’ ERA after the All-Star break
While the Astros were nine games over .500 in the second half, pitching had nothing to do with their improvement. The club jumped from fourth to first in the league in runs per game following the break, but their ERA was a lowly 15th before (5.41 as well) and after. The inability of the staff to make some kind or progress in the second half when the offense was rolling was disappointing to say the least.
Both the rotation (5.52 ERA, 15th in the league) and the bullpen (5.18, 14th) were terrible. The staff finished 12th in the league in road ERA at 5.26, so at least some of the hideousness was due to Enron, where the pitchers posted a 5.55. Yet given that the Astros finished second in 1998 (3.78) and fourth in 1999 (4.27) in road ERA, 2000 was an all-around disaster, and the staff remains cause for alarm.
.295: Chris Truby’s OBP
No one expects him to be Wade Boggs, but Truby’s OBP was an awful 42nd among major-league third baseman with at least 200 plate appearances. Nothing in his background suggests Truby will improve much. In more than 3,000 minor-league plate appearances, he drew a mere 223 walks and posted a meager .322 OBP. Few corner infielders last long as regulars with such poor plate discipline.
Truby’s decent power makes up somewhat for his OBP, but he hit only two of his 11 homers and slugged a mediocre .404 on the road. Truby batted .220/.256/.390 vs. righties but .355/.386/.684 vs. lefties. Back pain has hobbled Bill Spiers (.307/.384/.402 vs. righties), though, so a platoon isn’t an option. Enter Charlie Hayes, who can’t hit righties either (.249/.336/.340).
116: Scott Elarton’s average pitch count in the second half
Elarton (6’7, 240) is built like a workhorse, but a 24-year-old coming off shoulder surgery might not have expected better from a manager lauded for his handling of young pitchers. You have to wonder whether letting Elarton throw 130 pitches three times and 120 pitches five times was the way to get him back in shape. From August 1 to September 17, Elarton averaged 121 pitches per start over a 10-game stretch:
Opp IP ER PC ------------------ @Fla 8.3 3 112 Mon 9.0 1 114 @Phi 6.0 2 119 Pit 7.3 5 117 Chi 8.0 3 118 @Mon 9.0 3 135 Atl 7.7 7 131 Fla 8.0 3 126 SF 6.0 6 115 Pit 8.0 3 127
Elarton pitched mostly well over that span but worked a lot. Dierker rode Wade Miller similarly hard. The 23-year-old averaged 108 pitches per start and, in consecutive games, threw 124 and 130 pitches on July 17 and July 22 and 121 and 132 pitches on August 29 and September 3. Astros fans should hope Elarton and Miller aren’t affected by such Livan Hernandez/Randy Johnson-esque pitch counts.
16: Richard Hidalgo’s home runs at Enron Field
Hidalgo hit almost twice as many home runs on the road (28) than at home despite playing in a home park heavily favoring power hitters. Of course Hidalgo’s road performance was monumental, but he is unlikely to approach it again. Only two players in baseball history, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, have hit as many as 28 road homers in a season more than once.
If Hidalgo posts similar home numbers and reverts to a mere mortal on the road, he’s more likely to be a 30-homer, .500-slugger than a 40-homer, .600-slugger. He’d still be plenty valuable, particularly as a 25-year-old center fielder with fine defensive credentials, but that would be a drop-off from 2000. A full season of Lance Berkman in left field might take up some of the offensive slack, though.
6.65: Jose Lima’s ERA
The good news is Lima almost certainly won’t be as awful in 2001 as he was in 2000. The bad news is Lima would require a massive step forward to return to the form that saw him post a combined 37-18 record in 1998 and 1999. Lima stunk like a donkey no matter how you slice it: 6.92 at home, 6.32 on the road, 7.36 in the first half, 5.80 in the second half.
The only kind thing to say about Lima last season is he remained healthy, although that had the downside of keeping him in the rotation. Lima is about as important as anyone to the Astros’ success. He threw a combined 479.7 innings in 1998 and 1999, and even had 196.3 innings pitched last season despite getting hit hard. It would be helpful if those innings weren’t spent watching so many balls fly over the fence.