Astros fans worried about their team’s lackluster spring-training performance probably shouldn’t be. There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about this team: the starting pitching is shaky, half the bullpen is recovering from injury, the defense isn’t exactly solid. But, as the axiom goes, spring wins and losses don’t matter.
Or do they? Maybe a little. For all teams from 1996 to 2000, clubs that ended up in the play-offs had better spring records as a group than everyone else:
All Teams Spring Regular Since 1996 Training Season --------------------------------- Play-Off Teams .548 .583 Everyone Else .483 .469
But the overall correlation between winning percentage in spring training and the regular season was very low: a meager 0.18 on a scale of -1.00 to 1.00, with 1.00 indicating a strong positive correlation. And consider the top 10 spring records over the last five years, with plenty of eventual winners and losers:
Spring Regular Year Team Training Season -------------------------------------- 1997 Marlins 26 5 92 70 1998 Red Sox 20 8 92 70 1999 Royals 22 9 64 97 1999 Dodgers 21 9 77 85 1999 Diamondbacks 22 10 100 62 1998 Rangers 21 10 88 74 1996 Angels 20 10 70 91 1996 Tigers 20 10 53 109 1997 Yankees 20 10 96 66 1998 Orioles 18 9 79 83
Little did Tigers fans know what lay in store for them after a great spring in 1996: the sixth-most losses in American League history. Among the bottom 10 exhibition records since 1996, however, only one team, the 1998 Braves, which finished the spring 10-18, ended up in the play-offs. Overall, only 14 of the 40 play-off teams from 1996 to 2000 had spring records under .500.
So while it’s true that spring performance wasn’t a strong predictor of regular-season success, the fact remains that play-off teams more often than not at least broke even in spring training. Does this hold true for individual players as well as teams? There are three important words to bear in mind in this regard: small sample size.
Taking 80 at-bats or pitching 40 innings is a lot in spring training. Even in the regular season, appearances can be deceiving in such short spans. Tim Bogar batted .295 in 78 at-bats last August. Chris Holt posted a 3.49 ERA in 38.7 innings pitched last May. Their full-season performances made clear, though, that these stretches were exceptions, not the rule.
Besides small sample size, other factors present in spring training — varying levels of competition, uneven playing time, shaking off rust — render exhibition performance of dubious predictive value. Take, for example, the best and worst batting averages in Astros spring training over the last five seasons, minimum 30 at-bats:
Spring Regular Year Top 10 Training Season ---------------------------------------- 1998 Moises Alou .419 .312 1997 Luis Gonzalez .418 .258 1996 Mike Simms .395 .176 2000 Julio Lugo .385 .283 1999 Ricky Gutierrez .378 .261 1999 Jeff Bagwell .375 .304 1998 Ricky Gutierrez .353 .261 1998 Tim Bogar .353 .154 1997 Bobby Abreu .351 .250 2000 Jeff Bagwell .349 .310
Spring Regular Year Bottom 10 Training Season ---------------------------------------- 1996 Bill Spiers .163 .252 1999 Derek Bell .167 .236 1998 Carl Everett .196 .296 1998 Jeff Bagwell .200 .304 2000 Moises Alou .200 .355 1999 Dave Clark .200 ---- 2000 Chris Truby .200 .260 1996 James Mouton .206 .263 1997 Brad Ausmus .208 .266 2000 Tim Bogar .212 .207
Moises Alou followed his tremendous 1998 spring with one of the finest regular seasons ever by an Astros outfielder. But Tim Bogar rode his 1998 spring success to a hideous regular season. Derek Bell was terrible in spring 1999 and bad in the regular season. But Carl Everett and Jeff Bagwell overcame poor springs in 1998 to post fine regular-season performances.
The best and worst earned-run averages, minimum 15 innings pitched, were similarly scattered:
Spring Regular Year Top 10 Training Season ---------------------------------------- 1999 Brian Williams 1.15 4.41 2000 Chris Holt 1.24 5.35 1996 Shane Reynolds 2.04 3.65 1997 Shane Reynolds 2.08 4.23 1997 Russ Springer 2.16 4.23 1998 Mike Magnante 2.20 4.88 2000 Dwight Gooden 2.37 4.71 1999 Jay Powell 2.81 4.32 1998 Sean Bergman 3.18 3.72 1998 Mike Hampton 3.25 3.36
Spring Regular Year Bottom 10 Training Season ---------------------------------------- 1996 Donne Wall 8.82 4.56 1999 Scott Elarton 8.10 3.48 2000 Octavio Dotel 7.32 5.40 1998 Shane Reynolds 6.85 3.51 1999 Sean Bergman 6.75 5.21 1997 Mike Hampton 6.56 3.83 2000 Shane Reynolds 6.35 5.22 2000 Jose Lima 6.15 6.65 1996 Mike Hampton 5.64 3.59 1996 Darryl Kile 5.46 4.19
Chris Holt couldn’t carry his 2000 spring momentum into the regular season, while Shane Reynolds complemented a splendid spring in 1996 with a solid regular season. But Reynolds’ dismal 1998 spring wasn’t indicative of his regular-season success. Indeed, Reynolds is an example of how even an established player or pitcher can post wild swings in spring performance over the years:
Year ERA IP ---------------- 1996 2.04 17.7 1997 2.08 26.0 1998 6.85 23.7 1999 3.28 24.7 2000 6.35 17.0
If Reynolds’ fate were determined every season according to his spring performance, he would alternate between ace of the staff and the waiver wire. Likewise, Jeff Bagwell, who by reputation gets a slow start in spring training, takes an annual spring roller-coaster ride:
Year Avg AB -------------- 1996 .237 59 1997 .261 69 1998 .200 60 1999 .375 48 2000 .349 43
These aren’t isolated examples. Any player or pitcher, rookie or veteran, star or scrub, can sink or swim in the handful of at-bats or innings pitched spring training affords. While spring training gives teams the chance to observe important details about a player or pitcher — the mechanics of his swing or delivery, his progress recovering from injury, how hard he worked or how well he kept in shape during the offseason — the venue is too limited to get an accurate read of his likely performance based on his statistics.
So, this spring, before Astros fans get too high on Brad Ausmus, Daryle Ward, Mike Jackson, and Kent Bottenfield or too down on Glenn Barker, Chris Truby, Doug Brocail, and Scott Elarton, they should remember that the numbers don’t really count until the players and pitchers cross the white lines on Opening Day.