By Michael N
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on February 8, 2001.
As usual, the noted taskmasters (and our gracious hosts) Kev & Scott have allowed me to goof off and provide you with another extremely late version of Minor Opinions. Must have something to do with that free work thingy, I dunno. But I am grateful for their patience.
Anyway, this year I have decided to try and do the prospect report a little differently. Instead of doing a Top 10 list and then something on the top pitchers and position players, this year there will be two prospect reports. The first, which follows, is a Top 12 list of the prospects I expect to reach major league baseball within the next few years. Unlike some other lists, this is not a ranking based on “projectability” which places some kid with little to no experience above a similarly talented player who has produced in the professional ranks. Those “projectable” players will be addressed in the second prospect report.
The list this year is heavy in pitchers, which is a good thing in my opinion. Pitching is the most precious commodity in baseball and it has been a long time since Houston has had the kind of depth they currently possess in quality arms. This is tempered, though, by a lack of high-ceiling outfielders and young third basemen in the upper ranks of the system. Something Houston will have to address for the future either in the draft (not preferred) or by trade/free agency
(preferred).
On to the list…
1. Roy Oswalt (DOB: 8/29/77, RHP)
Last year’s Minor Opinions top prospect list mentioned something about how this right-hander had the kind of ability that could lead to a rapid advancement in the Astros’ system. It seems unlikely that even someone of similar mind would have thought rapid to mean meteoric. But that is exactly the case with Oswalt’s performance during the 2000 season.
Most of you have heard the movie script-like story of Oswalt’s first appearance at AA Round Rock, but I’ll repeat it here. Talented A-ball pitcher having an pretty good season in the Florida State League gets an emergency call-up to AA to fill in for an injury depleted Round Rock staff. Taking the mound with a round-trip ticket back to Florida in his pocket, Mr. Emergency Starter fires a 5-hit, 15-K, complete game shutout in front of a sellout crowd that includes Nolan Ryan and Tim Purpura. Aw-shucks boy from Podunk, Mississippi then nearly misses the agreed-to post-game interview because he’s on a knee giving a prayer of thanks in the dugout. Intense lobbying by Round Rock manager Jackie Moore and all of the RR staff and ownership to keep Oswalt in AA is successful. Oswalt goes on to have a fabulous AA season and earn a Gold medal with the USA national team in Sydney Olympic Games. Serious Frank Capra stuff, isn’t it?
Having seen all but one of his home starts last year, I could go on and on about the exploits of Roy Oswalt from last year. He was, simply and without question, the most dominant right-handed pitcher in the Texas League during the 2000 season. He possesses a calm demeanor and mature presence on the mound to go along with a fastball that routinely gets faster as the game progresses (often starting in the 93 MPH range and going as high as 97 by the 7th innings according to radar guns at the Dell Diamond), a devastating slow curve and very fine control. The only thing he lacks is, perhaps, a bit more experience and the organization would like him to continue development of his changeup.
Usually the MO prospect reports provide fairly detailed pieces of statistical information to serve as a backup to my eyes and ears. In this case, only one more stat will be provided which should clearly demonstrate just how dominant Roy Oswalt was in Round Rock. In each home game he started I kept a detailed chart of his pitches, even going so far as to get the information I needed from the game I happened to miss. It was fun totaling up how many guys he K’d on fastballs and curves (particularly watching so many guys screw themselves into the ground trying to stay back on the curve). But the most amazing thing I found after recently going back over the numbers is that, according to my records, only 7 times did a player pull a Roy Oswalt fastball or curve for a hit. Seven.
Unless there are any more injuries to Astro starters, or a combination of crappy springs by guys like Tony McKnight or Wade Miller and an absolutely stellar one by Oswalt, it seems likely Roy is bound for a stint in N’Awlins. But if he’s signing a lease, somebody better tell him to make it month-to-month. He’s probably not staying there very long.
ETA: Mid-season 2001
2. Wilfredo Rodriguez (DOB: 3/20/79, LHP)
Teachers I know talk about kids in their classes who are immensely talented, but lack focus and maturity. Often they say they must remind themselves that they are dealing with a young person and that one can only try and provide the atmosphere and tools to allow for that young person to take full advantage of their skills. Welcome to the experience the Houston Astros organization had with the immensely talented Wilfredo Rodriguez during the 2000 season.
Yes, Wilfredo had some injury setbacks. But there is no denying that his behavior was also somewhat petulant at times and that he obviously lacked focus during much of last season. His mechanics were often ugly and he routinely fought himself on the mound. Ultimately, the high promise for last year foretold by his spectacular performance in the Florida State League during 1999 went unfulfilled. Yet there is much good news to go along with the disappointment of last season. We must keep in mind that Rodriguez will only be 22 years old all next season. He’s a kid and still ahead of the minor league learning curve as a AA player at that age. Wilfredo has a howitzer for a left arm, a good curve and good size (though he is a bit stiff) and was healthy enough to throw in Venezuela this winter. He still has all the physical tools to be a quality major league starter.
Before the end of this past minor league season, I talked with someone who has known Wilfredo since he was 16 years old. That person told me the best thing that could happen for Wilfredo was for the season to end and for him to return to the familiarity of home in Venezuela to work with his former academy instructors, whom he reveres. The statistical reports of his work in the VZ Winter League are good, but better news is that he seems to be more focused and dedicated to making himself a better player. Should that be the case and a more mature Rodriguez reports to Spring Training this year, recent word is that he stands a very good chance of going to New Orleans. If a mature, healthy Rodriguez has the kind of success in AAA reminiscent of what we saw in high-A, he will be firing the pill at the EFUS before too long given the lack of lefties wearing the blood and mud. If that other Wilfredo show up… I hang up the Kreskin hat and say only that since he’s a lefty he’ll still pitch in major league baseball.
ETA: ’99 version of WR, mid-to-late 2001. ’00 version, who knows.
3. Tim Redding (DOB: 2/12/78, RHP)
Perhaps the story of Tim Redding can serve as a lesson for young Mr. Rodriguez. Redding went from a hard thrower who was immature and banished from the rotation to the bullpen at Michigan in ’99 to one of the finest starters in the entire Florida State League in 2000. He led the league in strikeouts, finished second in wins and third in ERA, earning a call-up to the Round Rock rotation for the stretch run and playoffs when Oswalt joined the Olympic team.
Redding struggled a bit early after being promoted but he was absolute nails during the playoffs. In his two post-season starts (covering 16.2 innings), Redding did not allow an earned run in winning both games. He allowed only one base runner per inning pitched and struck out 14 while walking 5. His season stats in Kissimmee and Round Rock:
KI – 24 G, 12-5 W-L, 154.2 IP, 125 H, 62 R, 46 ER, 57 BB, 170 K, 2.68 ERA
RR – 7 G, 4-0 W-L, 42.2 IP, 25 H, 14 R, 10 ER, 27 BB, 36 K, 2.11 ERA
The only blemish in the above is the number of walks allowed while in Round Rock. But his control increased markedly from last year (84 BB in 197.2 innings v. 76 BB in 105 innings) despite his uncorking 19 wild pitches.
I’m still not completely convinced Redding will remain a starter and that’s mostly due to the fact that he doesn’t yet have a consistently dominant second or third pitch. If he refines a killer #2, Redding has the kind of live heater and sound mechanics to endure throwing 200+ innings a year. But as everyone witnessed last year in Houston with Octavio Dotel, starting pitchers do not thrive in MLB throwing only gas.
If Mike Maddux can survive the major league wars for 15 years throwing little more than junk, let’s hope he can pass some of those tricks on to Redding while they work together in Round Rock this year.
ETA: mid-to-late 2002.
4. Keith Ginter (DOB: 5/5/76, 2B/3B)
I’ve written so much about this guy in Minor Opinions and in the TalkZone over the years, I just don’t have much fresh material to share. From “Steal of the Draft” to just missing the MO Top 10 list last year despite a mediocre performance at Kissimmee, Ginter vindicated all the promise foretold at Astrosconnection… with a vengeance. A season of .333/.457/.580 with 59 extra base hits (24 HRs), 108 runs scored, 92 RBI and 24 steals from a middle infielder translated to a Texas League MVP award.
Then came the playoffs. Ginter hit only .257. However, that weak-looking average included 6 HRs, 9 runs, 9 RBI and an OPS of 1.247 for the 10-game march culminating in an Express championship. In a beautiful bit of symmetry, Ginter homered in his final at-bat at the Dell Diamond. He had homered in his first home at bat, too.
For all the wonderful numbers, there are some bad ones. Particularly bad for Ginter are the numbers 25, 3 and 9. In order, that’s the age Ginter will be this year at New Orleans, the number of years remaining on Craig Biggio’s current contract and the millions of dollars the contract calls for per year. Oh, and I guess I should add the number 1 to the list on the bad side for Ginter, as in one highly motivated and surgically restored former All-Star.
In my view, the third base experiment in Arizona this fall was nothing more than a look-see if Ginter could handle the position in a back-up capacity. He’s not really suited for the defensive aspects of the hot corner on an everyday basis and we should look forward to him manning second base for the Zephyrs next season.
A couple of final notes: Zephyr Field is a much more friendly ballpark to pitchers than is Dell Diamond. If Keith is to continue his development as a hitter, he’s going to have to make a couple of adjustments to his hitting style. Ginter’s stroke is short, but it is an uppercut. Fly balls go to die in New Orleans so Keith should look to hit more line drives. Secondly, Ginter consistently refuses to swing the bat until he’s seen the first strike. Being patient is one thing. Consistently falling behind in the count to experienced pitchers is quite another.
I am seriously nit picking, though. Keith knocked the crap out of the ball pretty consistently all of last year and has proven himself one of the top 2B prospects in baseball. He’s got wonderful power-hitting potential for a middle infielder and if he’s not in the majors soon it’ll only be because Biggio is back to his old self again or the Astros haven’t traded him.
ETA: late 2001. Earlier if Biggio cannot return.
5. Mike Nannini (DOB: 8/9/80, RHP)
Nannini is the third right-handed pitcher on this list and the third righty who stands 6′ tall or less. He also similarly possesses a fastball that hits the mid-90s, though his is not in that range as often as Redding’s and his off-speed stuff is not in the same vein as that of the Oswalt curve.
What Nannini does have is outstanding control for such a young pitcher and he has proven to quickly adapt to throwing something other than the fastball. During the ’99 season he learned a hard lesson. He was pounded by older competition in mid-A ball that sat on the fastball he threw far too often and always over the plate. Last season he began throwing his slider and change more often and he seems to have much more confidence in those pitches to compliment his pinpoint heater. To illustrate this control, take a look at the following numbers:
1. 404.2 IP, 312 K, 148 BB
2. 362.1 IP, 356 K, 119 BB
3. 379.0 IP, 335 K, 108 BB
These lines represent the cumulative stats compiled during seasons played at high-A and lower classifications by (1) Scott Elarton, (2) Roy Oswalt and (3) Mike Nannini. The only Astros pitching prospect of recent memory with better numbers than these guys is Wade Miller. But he threw much fewer total innings.
Mike is described as an intense and intelligent pitcher who is advanced as a ballplayer for his age. Off the field he’s still a bit of a kid, but there has been no activity to suggest he’s a troublemaker. If he does not start the year in Round Rock, do not expect him to stay long in the A-ball ranks. A 14-7 record with fewer hits than innings pitched and a slightly better than 3K-1BB ratio between Michigan and Kissimmee attest that he has mastered those levels.
ETA: mid-to-late 2002.
6. Morgan Ensberg (DOB: 8/26/75, 3B)
Were it not for the explosive production of Keith Ginter and Roy Oswalt, Morgan Ensberg would have been the heart of baseball talk in Central Texas last year. The engaging and bright hot corner man from USC broke out with a very fine offensive season with the Express (.300/.416/.545 in 483 ABs) that far surpassed anything he had done with the bat in previous seasons.
Ensberg has always had a good batting eye and worked to get hitter’s counts. Last season, he took full advantage of those hitter’s counts and hit for both average and power. Another constant throughout his minor league career is his work with the glove. He is quick on his feet, has soft hands and an above average throwing arm.
Reports from his work in the Venezuelan Winter League only serve to support what those of us lucky enough to see him play regularly in Round Rock already witnessed. He hit for power, fielded well and led by example on the field and in the clubhouse. In fact, it’s the view here that Ensberg has a good chance of being the first of the players listed so far to be called to the EFUS next year. He’s as good a defender as Chris Truby. And while he may not hit with quite as much power as Truby, he hits for average and is a hell of a lot more selective at the plate.
His only downsides are that he’s already 25 years old (will turn 26 in August) and he’s not a burner on the base paths. But 25-26 is a heck of a lot younger than Charlie Hayes for goodness’ sake.
ETA: mid-2001, especially if Truby posts another sub-.300 OBP.
7. Adam Everett (DOB: 2/2/77, SS)
Most readers (all 12 of you) of Minor Opinions know that I believe Adam Everett to be a very impressive young man who will be a successful major league player one day. And as one who believes in the utility of statistical information I also understand how the stathead crowd can repeatedly bleat the number 245 and argue the opposite. Well, all I can say is that this is one occasion where statistics just might be lying and I’m going to choose to believe my four-color eyes instead of those staring at hard black and white.
Folks, those of you who have not had the pleasure of watching Everett play are missing a defensive whiz at work. He has above average tools in every respect. He can go in the hole and behind second. He has soft hands and a plus throwing arm. He both charges and goes back on the ball very well. Every coach, manager and scout I’ve talked to says he would be a defensive star in the major leagues immediately.
Unfortunately there’s this nagging issue surrounding his bat. Simply put, Everett is a thin man. He’s not a weakling and has a quick stroke, but his lack of natural strength prevents him from being able to turn on inside pitches and drive them. He also hits too many balls in the air. The good news though is that which has been trumpeted in the TalkZone. Everett hit around .300 in the last two months of the season and cut down tremendously on his strikeouts while continuing to take a good amount of walks. He’s also spent a portion of the winter at home in Georgia working on a strength program.
If Everett can continue to take walks while increasing his average such that he consistently reaches base at a .390 or .400 clip in AAA, my view is that the Astros should get him to Houston as soon as the next Southwest Airlines direct flight is available. While I love the offensive potential of Julio Lugo, his defense is substandard. And A-Rod, Garciaparra, Jeter, Larkin and Honus Wagner aside… shortstop is still primarily a defensive position. If Gerry the Hun thinks Brad Ausmus’ defense will help the shell-shocked Astros staff, methinks a great defensive shortstop can’t do much but help, too.
ETA: mid-to-late 2001.
8. Tony McKnight (DOB: 6/29/77, RHP)
What a bizarre year was 2000 for Tony McKnight. After being healthy for most of the 1999 season and pitching very well for Jackson in the Texas League, McKnight started last season with his near annual bout of tendonitis. Once healthy he was sent to Round Rock, a repeat of AA, where he pouted and generally didn’t show much of his skill on the mound. Like a man serving a sentence he did his time and was called up to New Orleans, where McKnight continued to have lackluster results.
A beneficiary of the rash of injuries and poor performance of pitchers in Houston last season, not because of anything he’d done in NO or RR, McKnight was called up and made his major league debut in August against the Mets. Apparently this awoke the beast within because over his 6 starts with Houston Tony McKnight was arguably the best starter on the staff. He went 4-1, compiled the lowest ERA on the entire staff for the season, kept the ball in the park and his walk totals low. Would that it was so easy for everybody, eh?
So, why is McKnight at #8 and not higher? Well, quite frankly, McKnight is injury-prone and I did not see as much life in his curve last year as in previous seasons. Somewhere I once read a pundit describe McKnight as Chris Holt with a good curve. Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your attitude toward Holt, I think this is probably accurate. McKnight has to spot his fastball or he’s dead meat and his curve is his out pitch. If all is working well, he can be dominant. If not, he’s lighting up the scoreboard ala, well, Chris Holt. At best I think he’s a #3 or #4 starter. That’s nothing to sneeze at, though. Teams need depth in the rotation and McKnight provides that kind of cushion for Houston and at a lot cheaper rate than Chris Holt.
McKnight should be given a chance to make the rotation out of spring, but I think he’s a long shot to start the year in Houston.
ETA: mid-to-late 2001.
9. Brad Lidge (DOB 12/23/76, RHP)
Rated by Baseball America as the pitcher with the best fastball in the 1998 draft, Lidge had only thrown 32.1 innings prior to last season because of elbow problems. Last season Lidge began the year healthy but it was cut short after he got his arm broken by a line drive. Then, after getting a few appearances in this year’s Arizona Fall League, Lidge was shut down and underwent a surgical procedure to clean out his right elbow that some had hoped he would have had long before.
The surgery went well and along with junking a curveball that caused stress on the elbow, Lidge should be primed to go a full season for the first time in his professional career. If so, Lidge could very well rocket up the organization ladder. His stuff is that good. So good that some believe this guy may have the best overall package of power pitching talent in the entire organization. Lidge comfortably throws a heavy ball in the 93-95 MPH range and a power slider in the upper 80s. For his career he’s allowed barely a base runner per inning pitched. Last year at Kissimmee he had a 3/1 strikeout to walk ratio and allowed only 28 hits in over 41 innings pitched.
Is 2001 the year we finally see Brad Lidge stay healthy and fulfill the promise his right arm holds? If you, like I, believe that the injury bug is the only thing holding him back then this could very well be the year. Unfortunately, history says otherwise.
ETA: mid-to-late 2002. More likely 2003.
10. Carlos Hernandez (DOB: 4/22/80, LHP)
To my knowledge, Carlos Hernandez is still the biggest bonus-baby signing out of Venezuela by the Astros organization and he has shown nothing so far to make anyone doubt the wisdom of the investment. As he has matured physically, Hernandez has gained speed and life on his fastball (low 90s) to compliment his late-breaking curveball. What he lacks is consistent command of his pitches and that can get him in trouble with walks. Overall, though, he’s been a fewer hits than innings pitched and strikeout an inning starter for two seasons.
Hernandez is the first recipient of the “Johan Santana” spot on the Astros 40-man roster. That’s not a slight at Hernandez. In fact it’s more a testament to 1) what I expect is a shift in organizational approach to foreign talent, that is speeding up their progression in the system 2) Rule 5 exposure of talented young players like Johan Santana and Donaldo Mendez to organizations willing to bury players for a year on the major league roster and 3) recognition of Hernandez’s talent being very inviting to other organizations with weak-ass developmental systems.
Another relatively short starter in the Astros’ system, the 5’10” Hernandez will likely spend a good portion of the 2001 season in A-ball working on his command and a changeup. Assuming his progression continues, one can expect that he will be rapidly moved after that given his 40-man roster status.
That and his being left-handed, of course…
ETA: mid-to-late 2003.
11. Greg Miller (DOB: 9/30/79, LHP)
Yes, he’s number 11 on this list. Yes, I’m going to get charges of CYA for this but here goes… I think Greg Miller is going to surprise the heck out of the Texas League in 2001 and end up one of the top starters in the circuit. Perhaps he’ll even finally force the C4 trade naysayers to shut the heck up.
So, why is he listed at #11? Primarily it is because Miller does not possess a single killer pitch. He has had to change speeds and location to stay ahead of hitters during his pro career. This begs the question, why then will he do so well in 2001? Primarily because of the fact he has been successful with this style of pitching at a very young age (he’ll be 21 all of next season in AA) and there’s no reason to think that he won’t develop better command and even more speed given his size, thoroughly fluid arm action and mature makeup.
As an example of that makeup, Miller came to Round Rock last year at the end of a pennant chase and through the playoffs solidified a bullpen that had broken down to the point of shambles, despite not having worked in a relief role since 1998 and then for only 4 appearances. In the Texas League playoffs Miller did not allow a single earned run. In his brief stint with the eventual AA Champs, Miller managed to impress the heck out of the Express staff and everyone else who saw this big 20-year old kid calmly go about his business of sitting down hitters with ease.
Lidge, Redding and possibly Rodriguez (if he’s not jumped to AAA to start the year) will be the big names at the beginning of the 2001 campaign in Round Rock. But by the end of the year, I have a good feeling Greg Miller’s name will have joined or surpassed those others on the marquee outside the Dell Diamond.
ETA: Early 2003.
12. Aaron McNeal (DOB: 4/28/78, 1B)
Take one look at Aaron McNeal and you know that this is a very powerful man. He also is fairly nimble around the first base bag. And coming off of a tremendous ’99 season at Michigan, USA Today tabbed McNeal as the top first base prospect in baseball.
Some of us knew a little better, but none expected the power drop-off McNeal suffered during last season. In his defense, McNeal did make a 2-level jump to AA. However, frequent observers of the Express also figured out why McNeal’s power is to centerfield and right field despite his being a right-handed hitter. He has a very difficult time with pitches on the inner half and so consistently looks to hit the ball up the middle or to the opposite field. He also has an irritating fondness for pitches 3-5 inches off the plate and at the level of his high-top shoes.
Still, despite his weaknesses at the plate and small injuries that limited his playing time at the end of the year, McNeal did manage to hit .310 with an OBP similar to that of his ’99 total. Assuming he repeats the year in AA (a very solid bet), is it too much to think that he will repeat the kind of success he had in his second stint in low-A ball? Probably. Yet if his hammate bone surgery was successful and he’s healthy at the start of the year, it’s not far-fetched to think he can hit .310/.370/.550 while playing good defense and become an attractive prospect for trade purposes or as a backup to Jeff Bagwell should Heavy D be shipped out in the next year or two.
ETA: no Ward, mid-to-late 2002. Otherwise he’s trade bait.