By Breedlove
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on January 18, 2001.
In a well-timed announcement, the Houston Astros sent folks home for a January weekend with the promise that their biggest star on the rise, Venezuelan-born Richard Hidalgo, was inked with the team for at least four years. In his first season out of the shadows of Carl Everett and Derek Bell, Hidalgo responded by posting mouth-watering statistics and avoiding controversy — he was given the ball and he ran with it.
This signing, on top of Hidalgo’s outstanding 2000 performance, must have felt validating to Gerry Hunsicker, who was roundly criticized for opting to expose Bobby Abreu to the expansion draft instead of Hidalgo. He didn’t exactly say “I told you so”–good GM’s don’t let you see them stooping quite that low–but the message was clear when he invoked Abreu’s name in several interviews.
Hidalgo has earned a good deal with his play, there’s no question about that. Putting up the offense he did while providing the only solid piece to the Astros picket fence outfield made a strong argument that he was the team’s MVP in 2000. And contrary to the opinions of distant sportswriters, Hidalgo got little offensive benefit apart from the wariness of opposing pitchers from the cozy lines of Enron Field, making his accomplishments all the more impressive.
This deal is fantastic for the Astros in a number of ways that go beyond Hidalgo’s on-field contributions. It shows they will sign players not named Biggio or Bagwell to long-term deals. It shows the Venezuelan Academy is not just a funnel for tradeable talent. It shows being arbitration-eligible is not a death knell to a player’s Astro existence. It shows up-and-comers like Lance Berkman and Scott Elarton that they will get their due when the time comes. It shows that while the Astros will not spend like the Yankees or Mets, they are not afraid to spend period. It shows they believe Hidalgo’s knees will not be a continuing problem.
What is questionable about this deal, however, is whether the dollars promised will be merited. Granted, they are baseball dollars, so this is akin to wondering whether the rents on Boardwalk are reasonable in light of the Mediterranean just around the corner. It’s easy to trot out an argument like this: Richard Hidalgo and Alex Rodriguez are almost the same age. Based on last year, they are pretty similar offensive players. A-Rod will average $25 million a season for the next four years while D-Go averages $8 million. Is it worth $17 million to have that production coming from shortstop instead of the outfield? Of course not. Can you find a pretty good shortstop for $17 million? One would think so.
The flaw in this sort of line (besides the considerable value of A-Rod’s name) is that A-Rod has demonstrated that his offensive numbers will happen again and again, while Hidalgo has just done it once. In fact, the numbers Hidalgo put up in 2000 were pretty out of whack with what he’s done before, and there are some indicators that he may not be able to keep it up.
First let’s look at that gaudy .391 on-base percentage, more than .030 better than anything he’s done in the past. He took 56 walks in 2000, same as in the 108-game 1999 campaign, so he didn’t suddenly become more patient. He did hit .314, which in itself gives a decent OBP. A big boost came from being hit by pitch 21 times — Ron Hunt, watch out. Soon Hidalgo will be inquiring of Biggio and Bagwell which ye olde smithy they rely on for their armor. The point here is being hit by 21 pitches may not be easily repeatable, and that was a big chunk of Hidalgo’s OBP. It could happen again, though, and certainly Hidalgo was not in a “take your base and let your teammates drive you in” spot in the order, certainly he can still be worth $8 million with a .375 OBP, and ~55 walks is more than Kirby Puckett averaged and about what Larry Walker takes. There is at least reason to wonder, however.
Then there’s the slugging percentage. Hidalgo’s massive .636 was head-and-shoulders above anything he’d ever done before. He hadn’t even sniffed .500 prior to 2000. His 44 homers and 42 doubles were just tremendous. La Mala has added a lot of muscle to what was already a very sturdy frame, so he may well be able to knock little ball long way with big bat for many years. But the stark contrast to what he’s done previously, even considering the Astrodome, makes it interesting to watch.
Hidalgo’s well-chronicled knee troubles add still more fuel to the fire. The Astros must be convinced that he’s not predisposed to more risk to have offered this deal, but if he suffers significant injury there will be a lot of raised eyebrows. Having such a big man with his history range center field, no matter how capably, seems to invite a resolution to this line of conjecture. He will have his track shoes on every night, especially sandwiched between two guys who, while they have their plusses, are both short on range.
Another source of wonder about the Hidalgo deal stems not from whether he is worth it, since even the questions raised above can be explained by injuries, but whether it was necessary. Hidalgo remained under club control, so they could very well have made a nice one-year offer and avoided arbitration. He was not due to become a free agent until 2003. The multi-year package goes against the grain of typical Astro front office strategy, as they usually minimize their risk exposure with one- or two-year deals. After recent contracts have come back to bite them in the Astros when players like Alou, Lima, and Wagner have gone down to injury or just gone down, it would’ve been understandable if they were a little more gun-shy.
Yet it’s fair to assume that if they’d done a one-year deal with Hidalgo it would have been for more than the $3 million he’s scheduled under this contract, so they likely saved a little there. Further, assuming he puts up similar numbers in 2001, the next contract would’ve been a biggie, but instead he will make just $5 million in 2002, and again they save money, all while not worrying that he’ll be lost to free agency. The $8 million he’s scheduled in 2003 will still be on par with players like Giles, Edmonds, and Everett, and their contracts are older than Hidalgo’s. The bump to $12 million in 2004 will be the telling year for this deal, but if he’s still outplaying Junior then, no one will complain.
Sluggers like Hidalgo are more common than when we grew up, but they are still highly valuable, especially when they can field. Now add in that Richard Hidalgo is as nice a guy as you’d want to meet and he’s just turning 25 years old. There are still reasons to question this deal in ways one would not question the Bagwell extension. Hidalgo’s knees and the drastic leap in his performance are a little unsettling in a four-year commitment from a team determined to economize. But if he can continue to log impressive numbers as the Astros believe, if last year was the real, healthy Hidalgo and we can expect more of the same, this deal was an absolute steal.