Have The Astros Missed Their Fair Share?

 Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on January 17, 2001.

After Jeff Bagwell signed a five-year, $85-million contract extension last month, ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian used Bagwell’s performance in MVP voting to emphasize his value to the Astros. From 1994 to 1999, Kurkjian noted, Bagwell received more National League MVP votes than any other player. 

Indeed, Bagwell’s consistent excellence has made him one of the best MVP performers of the last decade. A useful way to measure a player’s success in award voting is to look at his award share, which is a ratio of the votes he received to the maximum possible votes. For example, in 2000 Jeff Kent received 392 of 448 maximum possible votes for MVP. Thus, his award share was 392/448, or 0.88. A unanimous winner earns a 1.00 award share.

Unlike raw vote totals, award shares incorporate the fact that maximum possible votes vary depending on the scoring system and number of teams in the league. Award shares can be added up over several seasons to assess a player’s career success in award voting. For example, Bagwell is near the top in career MVP award share among active players:

                                 Top  Top
Player            Share  Years  Five   10
—————————————–
Barry Bonds        5.46     11     8    9
Frank Thomas       4.30      8     5    8
Ken Griffey Jr.    3.20      9     5    7
Mike Piazza        3.14      8     4    7
Jeff Bagwell       2.62      8     3    5
Rickey Henderson   2.46      8     3    6
Albert Belle       2.38      6     3    5
Juan Gonzalez      2.35      6     3    4
Cal Ripken Jr.     2.31     10     3    3
Tony Gwynn         1.93     12     1    7

Bagwell is rightfully surrounded by a group of players destined for Cooperstown. Moreover, Bagwell is 41st on the all-time award shares list. Every eligible player ahead of Bagwell except Jim Rice and Dave Parker is a Hall of Famer. While Bagwell’s award share is impressive, Barry Bonds’ is historic. Here’s how he rates among the top vote-getters of all-time:

                               Top  Top
Player          Share  Years  Five   10
—————————————
Stan Musial      6.97     18     9   14
Ted Williams     6.43     18     9   12
Willie Mays      6.07     15     9   12
Mickey Mantle    5.77     14     9    9
Barry Bonds      5.46     11     8    9
Hank Aaron       5.45     19     8   13
Joe DiMaggio     5.44     12     6   10
Lou Gehrig       5.43     11     8    9
Mike Schmidt     4.97     12     5    9
Frank Robinson   4.83     15     6   10

The next closest active player, Frank Thomas, ranks 11th. Bonds has won three MVP awards and finished second twice. Bonds will need at least a couple more strong performances to catch Stan Musial, however. The sportswriters of his era voted Musial first or second for MVP on seven occasions, most in the history of the award.

Mike Piazza, who ranks just ahead of Bagwell on the active list, has the second-highest career MVP award share for a player never to win the award. He is just behind Eddie Murray, who finished runner-up twice and had a 3.33 career award share.

Bagwell is one of 34 players to receive MVP votes in an Astros uniform. He is Houston’s lone winner of the award and easily the franchise leader in career award share. Somewhat surprisingly, Craig Biggio isn’t in second place, Glenn Davis is:

                             Top  Top
Player        Share  Years  Five   10
————————————-
Jeff Bagwell   2.62      8     3    5
Glenn Davis    1.09      3     1    3
Craig Biggio   1.03      5     2    3
Jose Cruz      0.96      5     1    3
Cesar Cedeno   0.51      5     0    1
Moises Alou    0.48      2     1    1
Joe Niekro     0.23      2     0    1
Kevin Bass     0.22      1     0    1
Dickie Thon    0.20      1     0    1
Bob Watson     0.16      3     0    0

Other Astros to earn MVP votes in more than once season include Jimmy Wynn (2), Lee May (2), Mike Scott (2), Bill Doran (3), J.R. Richard (2) and Rusty Staub (2). Other Astros to receive votes include Nolan Ryan, Art Howe, Billy Wagner, Carl Everett, Derek Bell, Joe Sambito, Doug Jones, Denis Menke, Mike Hampton, Larry Dierker, Dave Smith, Darryl Kile, Enos Cabell, Richard Hidalgo, Randy Johnson, Joe Morgan, Johnny Edwards and Ray Knight.

Award shares can also be used to measure Cy Young voting. Just as Bagwell is the franchise’s only MVP, Mike Scott is Houston’s only Cy Young winner. Scott is hence first among Astros in Cy Young award share:

Pitcher       Years  Share
————————–
Mike Scott        3   1.43
Mike Hampton      1   0.69
Joe Niekro        2   0.64
J.R. Richard      3   0.47
Nolan Ryan        3   0.34

Other Astros pitchers appearing on a Cy Young ballot include Darryl Kile, Doug Drabek, Jose Lima, Billy Wagner, Mark Portugal, Randy Johnson, Joe Sambito and Shane Reynolds. No Astros pitcher is close to the top 10 in career Cy Young award share:

Pitcher          Years  Share  Awards
————————————-
Roger Clemens        9   5.65       5
Greg Maddux          9   4.92       4
Steve Carlton        6   4.29       4
Randy Johnson        7   3.91       3
Tom Seaver          10   3.84       3
Jim Palmer           8   3.57       3
Pedro Martinez       4   3.42       3
Tom Glavine          6   3.15       2
Sandy Koufax         4   3.05       3
Bret Saberhagen      3   2.19       2

Other two-time winners include Bob Gibson (11th, 2.03), Gaylord Perry (13th, 2.00) and Denny McLain (24th, 1.42). The pitcher with the highest career award share never to win the award is Dan Quisenberry (20th, 1.49), followed closely by Nolan Ryan (21th, 1.47). In fact, 36 pitchers with lower career award shares than Quisenberry or Ryan managed to win at least one Cy Young award.

Award shares aren’t very useful for the Rookie of the Year award, since a player is typically eligible for the award only once (although Gregg Jefferies received votes in 1988 and 1989). Bagwell is the franchise’s only Rookie of the Year winner, but Joe Morgan (1965), Sonny Jackson (1966), Greg Gross (1974), Jeff Leonard (1979) and John Hudek (1994) all finished runner-up. Other Astros receiving Rookie of the Year votes include the following:

Rookie           Place  Year
—————————-
Cesar Cedeno         4  1970
Floyd Bannister      4  1977
Charlie Kerfeld      4  1986
Dave Smith           5  1980
Bill Doran           5  1983
Glenn Davis          5  1985
Gerald Young         5  1987
Mitch Meluskey       5  2000
Frank DiPino         6  1983
Lance Berkman        6  2000
Jim Deshaies         7  2000
Brian Williams       7  1992
Brian Hunter         7  1995
Shane Reynolds      11  1994

Five Astros skippers have worked their way into Manager of the Year voting, which has only existed since 1983. Hal Lanier and Larry Dierker are the only Astros managers to win the award. Here is how Astros managers have fared:

Manager        Years  Share
—————————
Larry Dierker      3   1.18
Hal Lanier         1   0.90
Bob Lillis         2   0.39
Terry Collins      3   0.32
Art Howe           2   0.11

Dierker ranks 19th in career Manager of the Year award share. The all-time leaders are as follows:

Manager       Years  Share  Awards
———————————-
Tony LaRussa     11   4.18       3
Bobby Cox        13   3.54       2
Davey Johnson     9   3.15       1
Jim Leyland       7   2.80       2
Dusty Baker       5   2.75       3
Felipe Alou       5   2.26       1
Joe Torre         6   2.11       2
Tommy Lasorda     7   2.06       2
Sparky Anderson   5   2.04       2
Lou Piniella     10   1.94       1

Despite the Indians’ success throughout the last decade, Mike Hargrove, who ranks 11th (1.62), has failed to win the award in eight appearances on the ballot.

Award shares do not in themselves measure value. Rather they measure the perception of value as viewed by the sportswriters of the Baseball Writers Association of America charged with voting on awards. While the BBWAA is often criticized for its selections, award shares can still be a useful index of how a player was perceived (or misperceived) in his own time.