By Michael N
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on September 20, 2000.
Now that the 2000 minor league season has concluded, again very successfully for the Astros organization, I thought I’d take measure of the organizational Top 10 list I prepared last winter. A sort of self-review to see how well or poorly my selections turned out and sure to incite the faithful (and faithless) denizens of the mighty, mighty TalkZone. Let the praise or denouncements begin!
1. Lance Berkman – OF/1B (Age Opening Day: 23, B: S, T: L)
Unless the Astros deal a couple of outfielders and get no major-league level replacements in return, I don’t see Berkman getting any more than a good look-see in Spring Training this year. There are just too many quality OFs in Houston and it does no good to have Berkman wasting away on the pine at the EFUS. There are still some rough spots to smooth in his game and that is not likely to be done while chatting with Matt Galante or Rex Jones during gametime. He needs to play every day and that means at least a few more months in the Big Easy.
I still think that this guy is going to be a better player than Daryle Ward. Ward is clearly the better hitter at this stage in their developments, but Berkman is the better athlete and will eventually have the better all-around game.
Didn’t take a genius to see the writing on the wall for Berkman at the beginning of the season. His destiny was set long before pitchers and catchers reported to Kissimmee, and leading the spring squad in homers did little or nothing to make the club revisit their decision he needed to play everyday in New Orleans. But an opening in Houston allowed Berkman to come up after only 31 games in AAA this year and I see no reason he should ever receive minor league per diems again.
Lance has continued his minor league pattern of advanced awareness of the strikezone while hitting for power and average in the majors. The only flaws I see in his game are that he still does not look to be completely comfortable in the outfield and he still struggles from the right side of the plate. Hopefully we will see improvement in both of those areas with consistent playing time. Whether he ends up in right field, left field or first base (baseball gods forbid)… Berkman should be an everyday player for the Astros for as long as they want to pay him.
Grade: A. I’ve been saying for three years that this guy is the best hitter the Astros have produced since Biggio and think this has clearly proven to be the case.
2. Wilfredo Rodriguez – LHP (AOD: 21)
Astro fans, get down on your knees and pray that nothing happens to this guy’s arm over the next couple of seasons. We may have the makings of a future ace in this kid.
…2000 should be a watershed season for Rodriguez. Though the FSL experienced a rare offensive year in ’99 and Rodriguez dominated from the mound, the AA Texas League is a very different ballgame. The new Round Rock franchise will be in the league’s Western Division and Wilfredo will be subjected to the launching pads in Midland and El Paso at least a couple of times next year in an already offense-minded league. Am I ever glad that I have my season tickets.
Though he is #2 on the list and you will read about many other quality players in the Astro minor league system, in this writer’s view Rodriguez is THE minor league player to watch next season in the Astro system.
Well, poo. Something did happen to Wilfredo’s arm (tendinitis). Couple that with a hamstring problem, a nasty case of the big head and frustration with being kept in Kissimmee and you have all the ingredients for a difficult year. Rodriguez would show flashes of brilliance pitching for both Round Rock and Kissimmee this year, but consistency is not a word you could apply to the vast majority of his performances. One inning he’d make quality hitters look like buffoons, the next inning he’d walk the pitcher or some weakling shortstop and all hell would break loose.
Then came the Texas League playoffs. Express Manager Jackie Moore was unsure whether he wanted young Wilfredo in the playoff rotation but was told by Astro brass to make sure he was included. Good call front office, because the Rodriguez we had hoped to see all year started to emerge in the limelight of post-season action. In 3 starts, W-Rod compiled the following numbers:
3-0 W-L, 19 IP, 18 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 7 BB, 16 K, 3.79 ERA.
That’s not all so great, you may say. And just by looking at raw numbers you’d be correct. However, in the three games Wilfredo started during the playoffs, one witnessed a very different pitcher than had taken the mound during the regular season. He was much more composed. He did not allow things like errors or walks to bother him nearly as much as he did earlier in the season and he really battled hitters, keeping his team in the game during difficult stretches in the first and last games he started (he dominated the second game of the playoffs, in Wichita). To me, that’s progress and portends well for the 2001 season in Round Rock.
Grade: C. He’s got all the potential in the world. Various veteran observers (scouts, radio announcers, writers) of minor league ball were heard to say at Dell Diamond that once this kid figures it all out, Houston will have a monster on its hands. Sure wish he’d have figured it out in 2000. But be patient. He’s still just a kid.
3. Wade Miller – RHP (AOD: 23)
…Are you really comparing Wade Miller with Scott Elarton? Well, yes and no. Their AAA results are similar, but Elarton certainly has the edge on Miller in several categories that make a pitcher effective. He’s much taller, has better command of more pitches, a great makeup on the mound and has proven extremely durable. But I can tell you that I have never seen an Elarton fastball do as much as I’ve seen Miller’s. It is exactly that movement on his 93-95 MPH fastball, his relative youth and inexperience while posting quality numbers that has me believing Miller possesses the potential to be a quality major league starter in a year or so.
In the past, the preferred method of grooming starters has been to give them time in the bully when they arrive in Houston.
This may be what will happen for Miller. But I don’t see it happening in April ’00. Miller should start the year in New Orleans again, spending time working on his off-speed arsenal. There is not enough room in the Astro rotation for him and I don’t think this is the time for him in the pen. He is not as polished as Elarton was at this stage and would benefit from at least another 15-20 starts in AAA. Late ’00 or next spring will be his time.
Gosh, I think I kinda nailed this one. Miller’s season at AAA was not spectacular, but it was an improvement over ’99 and that’s apparently what Houston was looking for. He got his 15 starts for New Orleans and a call to Houston, where he’s done fairly well. Wade is still not quite as poised as Elarton, but he does have some pretty darn nasty stuff and he’ll battle like nobody’s business (sure wish that internal stuff could be bottled and fed to Chris Holt).
I really like Miller for the #4 or #5 starter in Houston next season.
Grade: A
4. Julio Lugo – SS (AOD: 24, B: R, T: R)
Julio Lugo probably did more to enhance his chances at becoming a major league performer in the near future than any other player in the Astros’ minor league chain during 1999.
Gee. I read somewhere recently that no one from the Astrosconnection community has given Lugo any love…
Despite some nagging little injuries and an automobile accident that shelved him for short periods of the season, Lugo responded with a very nice season at the plate (.319/.381/.463) while showing decent pop for a middle infielder. But the best news is that Lugo struck out only 53 times in 445 ABs. In other words, he puts the ball in play so he can utilize his considerable speed on the bases. And if he continues to build on these kinds of numbers, Lugo may ultimately end up the prototypical #2 or #8 hitter in a major league lineup.
I still think this is the case.
The keys for Lugo are to continue to hone his defensive skills, maintain his low strikeout totals while increasing his walks and, for goodness’ sake, don’t attempt to be a power hitter ala Andujar Cedeno or Orlando Miller. I expect him to bump Carlos Hernandez back to 2B and form a pretty darn good middle infield for the Zephyrs next season.
Oops. Carlos Hernandez got traded and first Julio took his spot, then got a call to Houston a lot sooner than I would have thought. He still does not look like a major league SS to me and needs to develop better instincts on the bases, but his bat has proven to be major league ready.
Grade: B-. Knocking myself down a notch for thinking he’d spend most, if not all, of the year in NO. I don’t think he’ll see the minors again.
5. Tony McKnight – RHP (AOD: 22)
My only concern about McKnight is that in each of the seasons since he was drafted he has suffered some sort of elbow or shoulder problem. As far as I know there is nothing seriously wrong with him, just nagging strains. But this kind of situation can become chronic, so it certainly bears watching.
Something tells me McKnight will struggle in his first year at New Orleans as he adjusts to the altitude of some of the PCL parks. But perhaps this will be the tonic he needs and force him to use and trust his fastball as much as he does Uncle Charlie.
Again, McKnight struggled with nagging injuries and, like Wilfredo Rodriguez, pouted when to start the 2000 season he was assigned to the same level as the previous year. Once he got to New Orleans, however, McKnight’s season started to turn around and the results are getting better. Unfortunately just not up to the standards established in 1999.
McKnight’s changeup has improved dramatically, but from what I’ve seen of him lately… the devastating curveball he used to throw has become ordinary and he’s simply not striking batters out at the same clip. This is not to say my opinion of him has soured. He can still be an effective starter in MLB, especially if the great curve returns. One does have to wonder, though, if McKnight is becoming more of a control pitcher than the power his 6’5″, 210 pound frame and reputation would suggest.
Grade: C+. Should give myself more credit as I correctly gave the heads up on his injury history. But I don’t care for whiners and McKnight surely did enough of that in Round Rock. Find that curve again, Tony, and all should be well… as well as forgiven.
6. Eric Ireland – RHP (AOD: 23)
There comes a time when you have to accept that a guy who does not possess a blazing fastball, a knee-buckling curve or a devastating slider just might know how to freaking pitch. Introduce yourself to Mr. Ireland.
Boy, oh boy. Did Eric Ireland ever struggle in the first half of the 2000 campaign. His mechanics were off, he rarely got comfortable on the mound and even more rarely did he throw a first pitch strike. But in the second half of the season, Eric was as big a money pitcher as there was in the Texas League. He pitched ahead in the count more often than not and returned to the more economical style of pitching he had exhibited in previous seasons. He quit walking batters and induced ground balls aplenty, things a control pitcher simply must do in order to succeed. Ultimately, he finished the Texas League season sixth in ERA, second in innings pitched, third in complete games and second in shutouts.
Ireland showed the ability to handle the bat and fielded his position quite well, too. My feeling is that he’s passed the AA test. His performance in AAA will be worth watching closely and is likely go a long way toward determining his future.
Grade: B. Wrote several times that I thought Ireland might have some trouble adjusting early to the AA level and he did.
7. Chris Truby – 3B (AOD: 26, B: R, T: R)
This was a hard call. Truby is an outstanding defensive player with excellent range, good hands and a plus throwing arm.
So what is the problem? Why is he so low on the list? Well, Chris turns 27 in May. That’s the problem #1. Problem #2 is Ken Caminiti and a grass (not Astroturf) field in the EFUS. Problem #3 is basically zero experience above AA ball in an organization that rarely promotes players without at least a year in AAA. Ouch.
From all accounts, Truby is a great guy, a mature player, good in the clubhouse and a hard worker. What stinks for him is that by the time he is likely to make it as a full-time player in the majors, he will probably be 29 years old and on the downhill side of his playing ability just as he is beginning his career. Contrast that with Caminiti who earned the third base job at the relatively old age of 26. That’s why I don’t consider Truby to be a long-term prospect or solution to the coming need for a hot corner man in Houston.
Ken Caminiti no longer seems an impediment to anyone wishing/hoping to play 3B for Houston, but I think the rest still applies. Truby is playing well for Houston right now, but I’m gonna stick with my guns on this one and say that I still don’t think he’s the long-term solution at third for the Astros. He sure does look like a decent stop-gap measure with the way he’s playing right now, though…
The best case scenario for Truby would be for him to absolutely destroy AAA pitching early in the season. This might pressure the organization to give up on the notion Russ Johnson is a 3B and allow Truby to be called up for the occasional rest Caminiti needs. Perhaps this leads to a full-time job for him in 2001.
Hmmm. Truby played like crap in New Orleans. Russ Johnson played like crap in Houston and got himself traded. Caminiti’s own body decided it needed a very long rest and Truby may have won himself a full-time job for 2001 by knocking in Astros runners at an amazing clip for a guy usually hitting 7th or 8th in the batting order (adjusted to 550 ABs, Truby would drive in 132 runs).
Think ends, not means.
Grade: B
8. Mike Nannini – RHP (AOD: 19)
The little guy (5’10” in his spikes) can just flat bring it. A plus fastball that occasionally hits the mid-90s to go with a good slider and bulldog attitude makes Nannini a right-handed Gas Can. Though this young man may actually remain a starter.
…Nannini is overly aggressive at times, like trying to throw the pill past every hitter, and needs to learn how to really pitch. But there is no denying the talent in his right arm. He is both mature and certainly young enough to overcome his bad tendencies and make the adjustment from being a thrower to a pitcher. I really like his chances.
Lessee. Nannini finished first in complete games among Astros minor leaguers (5), second in innings pitched (179.2), tied for second in wins (14) and placed third in strikeouts (142). He had a combined ERA of 3.46 (second to Nick Roberts at Michigan and third behind Lidge and Redding at Kissimmee) while maintaining a 3-to-1 K/BB ratio. All this while mastering two levels of A-ball and most before turning the tender age of 20.
Grade: A. Gonna be very interesting to see what uniform Mr. Nannini is wearing come April of next year.
9. Jeriome Robertson – LHP (AOD: 23)
Once again, a pitcher without blazing stuff — just effective and consistently better outcomes from year to year.
A smart pitcher who stays within his limitations, Robertson is the very definition of a crafty left-hander. I see the jump from AA to AAA affecting him less than McKnight, though Robertson does not have nearly the same kind of stuff. And I give even money odds on Robertson being called up to Houston before McKnight because of his experience, maturity and good health.
Disappointing is the only term that comes to mind. Robertson had a cyst removed from his posterior prior to spring training and he was never really able to get untracked this season. He did not pitch particularly well in rehab stints at Kissimmee or Round Rock and got clobbered when sent to New Orleans.
I seriously doubt Houston will protect Robertson from the Rule 5 draft and next season is the last under which Houston controls his rights. He really needs to stand out next season in some way (other than simply being a lefty) or he should probably look for greener pastures.
Grade: F
10. Roy Oswalt – RHP (AOD: 23)
…You are probably saying that I am insane for listing a guy with an ERA in the mid-4s and who allows an opponent’s batting average of .251. Just understand that Oswalt gave up fewer hits than innings pitched while calling the Midwest League’s version of Coors Field home. Oswalt was the only Battle Cat starter to accomplish this feat in ’99 and it was a big factor in his going 13-4 on the season.
Oswalt is a bit behind his age group in terms of advancement up the minor league ladder. But if he remains healthy and successful, this is a guy who could be moved very quickly.
Called up to Round Rock nearly 2 months into Texas League season, Roy burned up the league to the following tune in a mere 3 months: 19 G, 18 GS, 11-4 W-L, 130 IP, 106 H, 22 BB, 141 K, 1.94 ERA. He finished the season with the league lead in ERA, was second in strikeouts, tied for second in shutouts, tied for third in complete games and was fourth in wins. Did I mention this was done in just over half a season?
Incredible control (22 BB in 130 IP, 6.4/1 K to BB ratio), a plus fastball, devastating slow curve and the poise of a world class poker player add up to two things… a spot on the Olympic team roster and a very bright future for this young hurler.
Grade: A