The most important numbers for Astros fans this winter won’t be wins and losses or home runs and RBIs, but how many dollars Drayton McLane agrees to spend to improve the team. Fans cried foul last offseason when the payroll dropped from $56.3 million to $52.4 million despite the opening of publicly subsidized Enron Field. Fortunately, there’s reason to believe McLane will dig significantly deeper into his pockets to help the Astros return to contention in 2001.
McLane, according to Jeff Bagwell, is embarrassed by the team’s performance, as he should be. When asked in an interview last month whether McLane preferred making money on a losing team or spending money on a winning team, Bagwell said he believes McLane wants to win. With the exception of last offseason, McLane’s spending pattern since voters approved taxpayer support for Enron Field upholds Bagwell’s assertion.
The payroll grew from $34.9 million in 1997 to $48.3 million in 1998 and, as mentioned, $56.3 million in 1999. And McLane was prepared to spend even more when Darryl Kile was offered $7 million per year after the 1997 season and Randy Johnson $11 million per year after the 1998 season. Fans thus might’ve expected the payroll to increase to at least $60 million in 2000. What happened?
Step into Gerry Hunsicker’s shoes circa October 1999. The contracts of key players Craig Biggio, Mike Hampton, Jose Lima and Bagwell were due to expire in 2001 or 2002. Meanwhile, the Astros had a surplus of talent in several potential starting outfielders, including veterans Moises Alou, Derek Bell and Carl Everett and youngsters Lance Berkman, Richard Hidalgo and Daryle Ward.
Hunsicker’s best course of action was to trade an outfielder or two in order to strengthen the farm system, increase playing time for the remaining outfielders, and, most important, create payroll space to negotiate contract extensions for Biggio, Hampton, Lima and Bagwell. The obvious candidates for departure were Bell, who had just batted .236 for the season and was due $5 million in 2000, and Alou, who had just missed the season with injury and was due $5.25 million.
There were surely few or no teams interested in Bell. On the other hand, it was reported in November that the Astros had agreed to send Alou to the Rockies for the return of Kile, a trade Alou exercised his right to veto. It was probably apparent at the time that trading Bell or Alou was highly unlikely. Hence, Hunsicker began shopping the other veteran outfielder, Everett, who had made $2.4 million in 1999 but was eligible for salary arbitration and due a hefty raise after a career year.
In early December it was disclosed that Biggio had agreed to a three-year extension averaging $9.3 million per season, the biggest contract in club history. A few days later, the Astros traded Everett to the Red Sox. He eventually signed a three-year contract averaging $7 million per season. Had the Astros given him a comparable deal, an outfield of Alou, Bell and Everett would’ve cost almost $16 million in 2000, with Berkman, Hidalgo and Ward on the bench.
Alou, who was retained instead of Everett, has adequately filled Everett’s spot in the line-up. In 120 games Everett has batted .303 with 33 home runs, 100 RBIs, a .378 OBP, and a .599 slugging average. In 108 games Alou has batted .360 with 27 home runs, 92 RBIs, a .425 OBP, and a .640 slugging average. The difference is that rather than acquiring Kile for Alou, the Astros received minor leaguers Adam Everett and Greg Miller for Everett. The winner of the trade won’t be known for at least a few more years.
If Everett had been the only major departure last winter, complaints might’ve subsided. Just after Everett’s trade, however, Hampton made clear he didn’t wish to negotiate an extension and would become a free agent after the 2000 season. A week later, rather than risk losing Hampton to free agency, the Astros traded him to the Mets. They managed to pawn off Bell, too, and in exchange received Octavio Dotel, Roger Cedeno and minor leaguer Kyle Kessel, as well as a payroll cut of a little more than $8 million.
It should be apparent that had Bell or Alou been traded before mid-December, Everett would likely still be in Houston. And obviously had Hampton been willing to negotiate and an agreement realized, he wouldn’t have been traded. Both Everett and Hampton would’ve received raises sending the payroll toward or over $60 million. The payroll certainly wouldn’t have declined. Trimming the payroll wasn’t in McLane’s original plan. Keeping Hampton and trading Bell or Alou instead of Everett were.
Even after the Hampton debacle, in early January the Astros signed Lima to a three-year extension averaging $6.3 million per season. Inking Biggio and Lima to new contracts and approaching Hampton to negotiate an extension weren’t signs of an intent to dismantle the team or reduce payroll. Nor was it imprudent to seek to convert surplus outfield talent into resources better used elsewhere. But why didn’t the Astros use the payroll savings to sign a free agent to replace Hampton?
Because there wasn’t much left on the market. Only the team’s most unreasonable detractors would suggest that the Astros should spend money for its own sake regardless of the quality and value of the players involved. Just because a club needs pitchers doesn’t mean it should pay the likes of Juan Guzman or Darren Oliver in excess of $6 million per year. Unwise spending out of desperation often fails to improve a team and locks up resources that could be put to better use in the future.
McLane’s test will come this offseason. The Astros have enjoyed success at the turnstiles despite adversity on the field. Bagwell’s contract needs to be extended, and Bagwell has said he wants to see the direction of the team change. That undoubtedly means spending money in the free-agent market, perhaps even for the return of Hampton. McLane should be prepared to support a payroll between $60 million and $70 million.
Given his pre-1999 track record, his intent to negotiate extensions with key players last winter, and the team’s embarrassing 2000 performance, McLane probably will spend that kind of money. If he does, he’ll redeem himself in the eyes of all but the most implacable critics. If not, his vilification is well deserved. The market has better pitchers to offer this offseason. Fans should be thankful the money is available now rather than tied up in last winter’s scraps.