Perhaps the best predictor of a pitcher’s longevity and future success is his strikeout rate. From that perspective, although he hasn’t filled Mike Hampton’s shoes, Octavio Dotel hasn’t been such a disappointment this season.
In 1999, Dotel’s rookie year, he finished third in strikeouts per game, trailing only Cy Young Award winner Randy Johnson and Rookie of the Year Scott Williamson among National Leaguers with at least 80 innings pitched. Scott Elarton, by the way, ranked fourth:
12.06 Johnson, ARI 10.32 Williamson, CIN 8.97 Dotel, NY 8.78 Elarton, HOU 8.71 Remlinger, ATL
Dotel has struck out batters at an even more impressive rate this season, increasing his strikeouts per game from 8.97 to 10.11. Among National Leaguers with at least 100 innings pitched, he again ranks third behind Johnson and Williamson:
12.57 Johnson, ARI 11.31 Williamson, CIN 10.11 Dotel, HOU 9.76 Ankiel, STL 9.19 Astacio, COL
Only 12 major-leaguers under age 25 have struck out at least 10 batters per game while pitching 100 or more innings in a season. That list includes some elite pitchers:
12.58 Kerry Wood, 1998 11.39 Dwight Gooden, 1984 10.82 Bruce Sutter, 1977 10.71 Sudden Sam McDowell, 1965 10.68 Mitch Williams, 1987 10.66 Tom Hall, 1970 10.52 Sandy Koufax, 1957 10.42 Sudden Sam McDowell, 1966 10.31 Mark Davis, 1985 10.25 Billy McCool, 1965 10.15 Sandy Koufax, 1959 10.13 Sandy Koufax, 1960 10.07 Bobby Witt, 1987 10.01 Ken Brett, 1970 10.01 Pedro Martinez, 1993
Dotel looks to join that company if he maintains his present strikeout rate. Simply put, Dotel is one of the most overpowering young pitchers in baseball history, something that bodes well for his future.
His weakness, of course, is control. In 1999, Dotel had the sixth-highest walks per game among National Leaguers with at least 80 innings pitched. Yet while Dotel has improved his strikeout rate this season, he has cut his walks per game from 5.17 to 4.17.
Dotel’s lower walk rate has helped him improve his ERA despite becoming more hittable and giving up more home runs this season. Here’s a comparison of Dotel’s 1999 and 2000 averages:
1999 5.38 ERA, 7.28 H/G, 1.27 HR/G, 5.17 BB/9, 8.97 SO/9 2000 5.19 ERA, 8.98 H/G, 1.93 HR/G, 4.17 BB/9, 10.11 SO/9
On the road, Dotel has seen even bigger improvement. His ERA, walks per game, and strikeout rate have improved even more drastically, his home runs per game have remained about the same despite an increase in the league home-run rate, and his hits per game haven’t increased as much:
1999 7.59 ERA, 7.68 H/G, 1.71 HR/G, 5.97 BB/9, 8.10 SO/9 2000 5.21 ERA, 8.21 H/G, 1.74 HR/G, 3.79 BB/9, 10.26 SO/9
Dotel is the only Astros pitcher to appear among the league leaders on the road. He ranks second in strikeouts per game, seventh in hits per game, and 11th in strikeout/walk ratio.
The move from Shea Stadium to Enron Field hasn’t helped Dotel’s home statistics, although he’s managed to more or less maintain his walks per game and strikeout rate in a hitter-friendly environment:
1999 3.16 ERA, 7.04 H/G, 0.85 HR/G, 4.48 BB/G, 10.02 SO/G 2000 5.17 ERA, 9.78 H/G, 2.12 HR/G, 4.57 BB/G, 9.95 SO/G
In context, Dotel’s ERA is markedly better in 2000 than it was in 1999. Shea Stadium deflated runs by about 9 percent last year, while Enron Field has inflated runs by about 17 percent this season. In addition, the league ERA is slightly higher in 2000 than it was in 1999. In park-adjusted terms, Dotel’s ERA was 23 percent worse than the league ERA in 1999. This season it’s only about 3 percent worse.
Nonetheless, Dotel must improve his ERA considerably more for him to become a top-flight pitcher. While his strikeout rate is superlative and his hits per game are above average, he must make further progress in reducing his walks and, thereby, lowering his ERA.
Dotel walked only 12 batters in 43 innings in June and July and was looking good in August until he issued three consecutive walks without recording an out Aug. 21 against the Cubs. Here are his walks per game by month:
4.68 April (13 BB in 25 IP) 5.56 May (21 BB in 34 IP) 2.47 June (8 BB in 29.7 IP) 2.75 July (4 BB in 13.3 IP) 2.65 Prior to Aug. 21 (3 BB in 10.7 IP) 5.29 August (6 BB in 10.7 IP)
It would be nice if the Aug. 21 appearances was merely a momentary relapse due to fatigue, given that Dotel had pitched four of the previous five games. Whether he bounces back remains to be seen.
Otherwise, Dotel has excelled in the closer’s role, converting nine of 11 save opportunities, permitting only five of 19 inherited runners to score, allowing 4.56 hits per game, and striking out 13.69 batters per game.
At age 24, it might be better to pitch Dotel out of the bullpen, like the Astros did with Elarton, at least until Billy Wagner returns from injury next season. There’s no reason to overuse Dotel, who still shows signs of developing into a star.