By Breedlove
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on June 27, 2000.
Third installment of a six part Breedlove series evaluating the 2000 Astros.
To date, the Astros rotation has started 74 games and completed two, getting decisions in 46 games (62%) for a record of 16-30. The starters have logged 442.2 innings in those 74 games, for an average of just a hair under 6 innings a start. The rotation’s ERA is 5.63, which translates to roughly 3.75 runs allowed in the average game by the starters.
Shane Reynolds (6-4, 3.75)
After a few years as the forgotten man in the Astros rotation, Reynolds is reminding everyone of his value. He hasn’t been spectacular this season, but it doesn’t take that to stand out in a rotation this bad. On a good team Reynolds might be on pace for 20 wins with the way he’s pitched. He’s an Astro instead, so he’s on pace for 15. Not bad for a gumbo-eater with two bulging discs.
The key to his consistent success, as with most veterans, is his constant adjustment to the league as it adjusts to him. By the second half of ’99 it was clear that he was going after hitters even with the count in his favor to keep his pitch counts down, and he was going to come with number one to try to get ahead and set up the breaking ball. This season he’s been willing to be a little wild against the boppers to keep their comfort level down, and he’s trying to get the curve and forkball over to get ahead.
Octavio Dotel (1-4, 5.33)
So this is what we got for Mike Hampton. No one expected Dotel to suddenly become a Jedi master of pitching, but everyone expected he could at least be effective as a backend of the rotation starter. Not yet apparently, though at almost a K per inning, the force is strong in this one. Opponents are slugging over .500 against Dotel, so they obviously know what’s coming. That’s lethal when mixed with their .359 on-base percentage. The Mets got some nice innings from Dotel out of the pen last season despite his ERA of 5.38, largely because opponents hit only .226 against him – this year they’re hitting .277.
Dotel has excellent late movement on a nice heater and a very deceptive delivery. Thus far that’s his only consistently effective pitch though, and hitters are sitting on it. If he doesn’t learn an offspeed pitch soon to complement his fastball and average-plus curve, look for Dotel to return to the pen to solidify long relief for the Astros and give them a chance to battle test some of the AAA talent they are rumored to possess.
Jose Lima (1-11, 7.07)
What the hell happened? Jose must feel like he came home from vacation to find his house robbed. This guy has had the most terrible 15-start stretch I have seen in my entire life, and he’s not a bad pitcher. Blaming it on his run of endorsements going to his head seems stupid; he’s got too much competitive pride for that to be true. But for whatever reason Lima’s been unable to hit his spots this year, and as Bill Worrell will gladly tell you – 16 times a game – more than velocity, pitching to locations is vital. It doesn’t help that many hitters around the league would love to have his head on a platter for his mound antics. They’re all looking for their chance to “dance around the bases,” and they’ve done it 24 times in 90 innings. El Loco hasn’t really been wild and doesn’t obviously lack velocity, yet the opposition is batting .328/.374/.604.
Scouting reports from last year suggested Lima was tipping his pitches, so that could be part of the problem, exacerbated by relying so heavily on a changeup that straightens out when he overthrows it. There’s also the mental issue: Jose’s father has faced serious illness, he lost his smooching buddy Mike Hampton, and moved into Enron’s tight dimensions. But it’s possible that the single biggest problem isn’t being discussed. After throwing 220 innings from ’95 to ’97, Lima threw an amazing 480 innings over the last two years. Could he have a dead arm?
Chris Holt (3-8, 5.12)
Here’s your number two starter, folks. I like this guy and I can’t tell you why. He had a horrendous enough April to shut up the “Holt for Cy Young” crowd, but has really turned it around since then. He’s the only starter on the staff that’s shown real improvement as the season has rolled along. Still just one season removed from missing all of ’98 after shoulder surgery, Holt’s May and June have been solid, with respective ERA’s of 3.49 and 4.50. Of course his record over that same period was 2-5. I sent a letter to my congressman hoping to get an inquiry into this Serling-inspired bit of weirdness. He says not only do the Astros not hit when he pitches, but the bullpen misses him and is doing all it can to get him back in the fold. Holt has both the complete games for the Astros so far, which means he’s only got one win when he hasn’t worked solo.
Chris Holt is near the prototype starter for Enron Field. He features an excellent sinker that keeps the ball on the ground, having already induced 19 double plays. His fastball is average-plus at 92-93 MPH, and his changeup is pretty good when he keeps it down.
Scott Elarton (5-3, 7.11)
Yes, there’s a starting pitcher with a worse ERA than Jose Lima… and he’s got a winning record. How does that happen? He’s the freaking Anti-Holt. The Outlaw is returning from a partial tear of his rotator cuff that required surgery during the offseason, and obviously has yet to hit his stride. His velocity is still down, and he’s only now regaining his feel for the curveball after not being allowed to throw a breaking pitch until the middle of March. Prior to this season Elarton had allowed 13 homeruns in 181 innings. So far this year he’s given up 12 in 63 innings. All his numbers are down though, so the additional taters just come with the territory. The most telling stat on Elarton’s resume is this: in ’98 and ’99, he had 177 K’s against 63 walks. He’s walked 35 through 12 starts this season, and struck out just 38 batters.
On the plus side, Scott’s had two outstanding games where he was absolutely dominant, which suggests that given enough time to work out the kinks he’ll be the starter all the scouts drool over. If he can string together a couple of solid starts he’ll be in the rotation for the rest of the year. If he looks like he’s not going to get it back soon though, expect him to go to New Orleans to rebuild his strength in this lost season and either Wade Miller or Brian Powell to get a look-see.