By Historian
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on June 14, 2000.
While some expected the Astros to backslide a bit this year with the losses of Mike Hampton and Carl Everett, it’s safe to say most people are shocked at how much the team has fallen. It’s not the first time the Astros have failed to live up to expectations and, if history is an indicator, the Astros ship may not be righted until the 2002 season. Since a recent Sports Illustrated article cited the attendance “honeymoon” for teams in new stadiums to last one-to-two seasons, the timing of a return to fortune may be important for the economic welfare and viability of the team.
The Astros, as a team, have peaked three previous time prior to the 1990s. Let’s compare what happened, what changed and how the team rebuilt. Keep in mind that this doesn’t necessarily mean that the same will happen this time around, particularly as the club adjusts to Enron Field, but it serves as a case study nonetheless.
1969-1972
After seven seasons of losing baseball, the Astros broke out of the gate with a horrendous 4-20 record. The team rebounded and eventually found itself in a five-way race for the newly-created National League West crown. As late as mid-September, Houston was within two games of the division lead. A late slump brought them down to fifth place and a .500 record (81-81). Still, the team got their first taste of pennant pressure and celebrated their first non-losing season. Under Manager Harry Walker for the first full season, the Astros gained nine games on the previous year’s results.
Further improvement was expected but, instead, the team settled for identical 79-83 records and fourth-place finishes during the next two seasons. Only in the strike-shortened year of 1972, did the Astros finally complete a winning season (84-69), an 8.5-game improvement. They finished that campaign a distant second to Cincinnati, ending it under the helm of Leo Durocher.
What Changed:
Only three regulars (OF Jim Wynn, 3B Doug Rader, C Johnny Edwards) remained in the lineup. Larry Dierker and Don Wilson continued to lead the starting rotation while Fred Gladding and Jim Ray continued to anchor the bullpen. Offensively, the emergence of OFs Cesar Cedeno and Bob Watson, as well as the trade for 1B Lee May, gave Houston four 20-HR players in their lineup. Run production increased from 676 in 1969 to a league-leading 708 in 1972 (accomplished in nine fewer games). On the mound, Dave Roberts, Jerry Reuss and Ken Forsch saw time in the starting rotation, replacing Denny Lemaster and Tom Griffin. The new rotation, though formidable on paper, underachieved. While the starters earned 60 wins in 1969, they earned only 48 in 1972. Clearly the team transformed from a pitching-oriented club to a hitting-oriented club.
Long Term Result:
The Astros hovered at .500 the next two seasons while the club tinkered to build a winner, getting older in the process. They hit bottom in 1975, got rid of many of the veterans and rebuilt.
1980-1983
It wasn’t until 1979 that the Astros again made a run for a pennant. The Astros, under Manager Bill Virdon, built a ten-game lead over Cincinnati in July, only to fall 1.5 games short (89-73) at the end. The next season, Houston finally broke through, beating the Dodgers in a one-game playoff for their first ever division title. They improved three games to 92-70 before winning the extra playoff game. The Astros triumphed despite the mid-season loss of ace J.R. Richard as Vern Ruhle stepped into the rotation and kept it clicking.
A bad April start in 1981 was overshadowed by a long mid-season strike. Given second life, the Astros won the split-season and went to the post-season. It masked that the Rainbow Warriors had just the third-best overall record in the N.L. West and a ten-game dropoff from the previous year’s success. The dropoff continued in 1982, falling to 77-85 and a fifth place finish. Virdon was fired and replaced by Bob Lillis. The 1983 squad rebounded with an eight-game increase to 85-77, good enough for third but just six games behind the division-winning Dodgers.
What Changed:
Only three regulars (OFs Jose Cruz and Terry Puhl, C Alan Ashby) remained in the lineup. Trades had brought 1B Ray Knight, SS Dickie Thon and 3B Phil Garner. 2B Bill Doran was in his rookie year while CF was split between free agent Omar Moreno and Tony Scott. Moreno was later traded for OF Jerry Mumphrey. Besides Cruz, the Astros had found a key offensive weapon in Thon who produced a career year (.286/20/79/34sb). Houston had less steals (164-194) and more homers (97-75) in 1983 than in 1980. Joe Niekro and Nolan Ryan were mainstays of the rotation but the rest of the starting pitching was in flux. Bob Knepper, Mike Scott, Mike Madden and Mike LaCoss tried their hand in the rotation. The bullpen, though losing lefty Joe Sambito, stepped into the void as Dave Smith, Frank DiPino and rookie Bill Dawley were sensational – combining for 12 wins and 40 saves.
Long Term Result:
The Astros stayed near the .500 mark again, going 80-82 in 1984 and 83-79 in 1985, finishing in divisional ties for second and third respectively but not in any type of contender status during the pennant stretches those years.
1986-1989
The 1986 squad was picked to finish near the bottom but they surprised the experts with a pennant-winning 96-66 record, their best campaign to date. New Manager Hal Lanier combined veteran leadership with a sprinkling of youth. The team looked to build on their pennant surprise but instead, the 1987 squad had a 20-game collapse, falling to 76-86. Disastrous seasons by Knepper, Ryan and set-up man Charley Kerfeld were the key causes. In 1988, Houston rebounded to 82-80, which was not enough to save Lanier’s job. The 1989 squad, under Art Howe, was at or near the top of the division all season. They faded in September to finish 86-76, six games behind San Francisco.
What Changed:
Only three regulars (1B Glenn Davis, 2B Bill Doran and OF Billy Hatcher) remained in the lineup. Mike Scott had his two most dominant years in 1986 and 1989 while Jim Deshaies stayed in the rotation. Dave Smith remained the closer while Larry Andersen and Danny Darwin supported the bullpen. Offensively, C Craig Biggio and 3B Ken Caminiti played their first full seasons under the Dome. Jose Cruz and Kevin Bass, keys to the 1986 champions, had moved on. Gone too was Nolan Ryan and his replacement, free agent Jim Clancy, was having a miserable 7-14 season. The 1989 team was an aging squad. Ten of the position players and eleven pitchers used that year were age 30 or older.
Long Term Result:
After a failing 1990 season (75-87) and facing financial trouble, the Astros dumped veterans and hit bottom in 1991, rebuilding with Biggio, Caminiti, Jeff Bagwell and Steve Finley along with pitchers Pete Harnisch, Darryl Kile and Xavier Hernandez.
The 1990s
Unlike the previous situations, the Astros of the 1990s represented a steady climb from 1991 to 1998, peaking with the 102-win season that was the second of their three division titles. Perhaps the 1999 year, although another pennant-winner and the second-highest win total in club history, represents the first year on the curve downward.
Players like Biggio, Bagwell and Caminiti are at various stages of the declines of their careers (hard to say that about Bagwell but first basemen tend to have longer shelf lives). Is it their time to move on as it was for Joe Morgan or Cesar Cedeno or Jose Cruz?
What Might Be Expected In 2002
Expect five of the eight regular positions to have turned over since 1999. That’s already happening with C Mitch Meluskey, OF Roger Cedeno and SS Tim Bogar in starting roles. Add OFs Daryle Ward, Lance Berkman or both to this. Expect a new shortstop and third baseman by that time as well. Biggio is staying and perhaps Bagwell is too. Expect two starting pitchers to still be in the rotation. That’s most likely to be Shane Reynolds and Octavio Dotel. Jose Lima? Good question (my guess is a trade). The closer was more or less stable which is good news if you are a Billy Wagner fan. Can’t say I expect much of the rest of the bullpen to still be around though. There was a managerial turnover in each instance.
In two of the three cases, the team that played well at the end of the four-year stretch was not as good as the team at the start of the four-year stretch. Perhaps a second-place team is in the cards for 2002. If the team grows back into pennant winners or not will have much to do with whether Houston is able to rebuild their pitching staff and whether it can find the personnel who will flourish in the new ballpark.
Other factors exist that could have a bearing such as another strike, free agent pressures and realignment (where the team can concentrate solely on being better than the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals every year). As they say in those investment ads, past performance is no guarantee of future success but this trip into Astros Past might give better understanding to what could be happening in the near future.