By Michael N
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on May 31, 2000.
In the previous two seasons, the Houston Astros have taken very talented, but raw, college players with their first selections in the draft (P-Brad Lidge, OF-Michael Rosamond) and a mix of HS and college talent in later rounds. There are three reasons for this approach: 1) Houston does not devote resources to giving huge signing bonuses, so taking highly touted HS players is a risky proposition; 2) regular infusion of youth comes from Venezuelan academy and Latin signings; 3) Houston is willing to take the time to slowly develop raw talent. The early returns on this approach have been mixed. The Astros’ rookie, short-season A and A-league teams have been succesful on the field, as is now the AA Round Rock affiliate. But the drafts have produced a limited number of true prospects to date. Lidge has been injury prone and Rosamond has not put up exciting numbers to match his raw skills. No one should give up on Lidge or Rosamond yet, though their lack of progress is clearly disappointing. However, the last two drafts have produced quality talents such as Keith Ginter, Mike Nannini, John Buck, Doug Sessions, Jon Helquist and Jason Lane.
The 2000 draft crop does not have a particularly exciting group of players rising to the top of the board, making the scouts and GMs of top drafting teams drool. Honestly, it’s not all that deep in terms of college hitters either. Where the gems may lie in this group of draft-eligibles is a fairly deep pool of good, not great, arms in both the college and high school ranks. That well of arms is where I expect, and hope, the Astros spend a good portion of their early focus (say, rounds 1-5) in this draft. But don’t expect too much from this year’s draft. It’s one of the weakest pools of talent overall in many years.
Here are some of the pitchers the Astros are likely considering for first round selection and might be available at #27, all from Southern California and in alpha order:
1. Phil Dumatrait – 6’2″, 175lb. LHP from Bakersfield JC (19 years old). >From out of nowhere is totally appropriate here. Dumatrait went from undrafted with a mid-80s FB to a potential first round pick with a 94MPH heater in one year.
2. Rob Henkel – 6’3″, 210lb. LHP from UCLA (21 years old). Already a survivor of Tommy John surgery, Henkel has a good FB (low 90s) that he combines with a knuckle-curve. Good strikeout numbers from Henkel, but some question his durability… witness his start v. Delaware in the first round of the NCAA regionals.
3. Billy Traber – 6’3″, 190lb. LHP from Loyola Marymount (20 years old). Tenacious, bulldog mentality compensates for average stuff. Only pitch that stands out is a good splitter which he has used with great success in college.
4. Robert Stiehl – 6’3″, 200lb. RHP from El Camino JC (19 years old). Catcher/closer with 97MPH heat. Does not have a second pitch, but also does not have wear and tear on his arm. Very raw, but exciting potential.
Here are two college hitters who may be attractive to the Astros should they slip:
1. Tyrell Godwin – 6’1″, 190lb. OF from North Carolina (20 years old, B:L, T:R). Godwin has wonderful natural talents, but the question among scouts is if he will ever fully translate them into baseball skills on a consistent basis. Might be a difficult sign for the Astros as he turned down $1.9 million from the Yankees 3 years ago to attend UNC on academic scholarship.
2. Chase Utley – 6’1″ 185lb. 2B from UCLA (21 years old, B:L, T:R). My kinda ballplayer. Utley is tough, gritty and already a polished hitter. So why might he last until the 27th pick? Because he’s not a true middle infielder and there may be questions as to his ability to play 3B or the OF and hit for enough power. If the Astros think this guy can play 3B, though… he’s definitely worth a look.
I’ll go out on a limb and say if he’s available, the Astros will take Utley. But if he’s not available or the Astros don’t think he can play 3B, history says they will take the raw flamethrower Robert Stiehl.
As for later rounds, the Astros have consistently taken fliers on local college talent. Players like pitchers Kenny Baugh of Rice, Chad Hawkins of Baylor, Blake Williams or Southwest Texas and Greg Runser of Houston are all interesting talents in a deep pool of pitching available from Texas colleges and high schools.
Let’s switch gears here for a minute. Think you all can take a moment while I not quite pat myself on the back? It’s still early to make big time judgements on the selections from last year but some of you may recall prior to the 1999 draft, most gurus were suggesting the Astros would take an OF and correctly tabbed Rosamond as the choice. It was my suggestion that the Astros instead take Matt Cepicky who I felt was a more polished player, though certainly less physically gifted (Cepicky lasted until the 3rd round).
Here are the respective numbers of 1) Rosamond 2) Cepicky from the Florida State League this year:
1) 178 AB, .208/.295/.393 with 6 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 22 BB, 60 K, 5 SB, 4 CS
2) 200 AB, .305/.341/.430 with 10 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 31 RBI, 10 BB, 16 K, 15 SB, 6 CS
Apparently Cepicky has not seen a pitch he won’t swing at, but at least he makes contact. Rosamond is striking out slightly more than 1 out of every 3 ABs. Plate discipline is something that can be taught to someone who already knows how to hit. It’s a lot tougher to start from ground zero with a kid who doesn’t hit well and has poor discipline.
The statistical difference between these two is an early example of a big reason why I’m a proponent of finding and selecting baseball players instead of athletes in the draft. Lance Berkman slid to Houston because many scouts felt he was slow and his power with the aluminum bat would not translate to wood. Oops. Keith Ginter may never amount to squat in the majors, but right now he’s making a lot of scouts look like idiots for telling him he’d never amount to anything in baseball because he was small. Desire and willingness to work hard everyday, combined with some talent, is a recipe much more likely to produce success than simple pure talent, in my estimation.
It’s my hope David Lakey and his group of scouts are combing the bushes looking for the kinds of kids more like the former than the latter and are ready to draft them later this week.