Nolan Ryan, Joe Morgan, Don Sutton, Eddie Mathews, Nellie Fox and Robin Roberts all spent playing time in a Houston uniform, but none of them is wearing an Astros cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Almost 40 years into its existence, the Astros organization has yet to see a player it can primarily call its own enshrined at Cooperstown.
That looks likely to change in the next 15 years. Houston fans, despite their frustration that the team has failed in three recent tries to win a playoff series, much less a pennant or world championship, have had the pleasure of watching two of the best players at their positions start for the Astros throughout the ’90s. Entering the 2000 season, have Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell already established themselves as viable Hall of Fame candidates?
One way to evaluate a candidate is to compare him to the inductees at his position. There is a school of thought that takes the lowest-common-denominator approach. That is, if player A is as good as player B, and player B is in the Hall of Fame, then player A should be inducted, too. This reasoning has the disadvantage of making the least qualified hall of famer the standard for election. A better method is to compare the candidate to the average of the honorees at his position.
This raises the question of what to compare. Since Bagwell and Biggio are in the middle of their careers, their counting statistics, like hits, home runs, and RBI, are not really useful to compare them to existing hall of famers. That leaves their rate statistics. A simple yet inclusive evaluator of a player’s offensive value is on-base percentage plus slugging average, also known as OPS. Comparing raw OPS over different eras is misleading, however, since offensive levels vary greatly over time.
A solution to this is Total Baseball‘s adjusted production, which compares a player’s on-base percentage and slugging average to the league average and, in addition, adjusts for park effect. Adjusted production is scaled so that 100 is average, less than 100 is below-average, and greater than 100 is above-average. A player with a 150, for example, can be said to be 50 percent better than the league average.
The median Hall of Fame first baseman has an adjusted production of 142. Bagwell’s adjusted production is 161. Indeed, among Hall of Fame first basemen only Lou Gehrig and Dan Brouthers outrank Bagwell, while Jimmie Foxx is tied with him. Close behind are Hank Greenberg and Johnny Mize. Among active first basemen Frank Thomas and Mark McGwire also have a higher adjusted production than Bagwell. Here are Bagwell and the top Hall of Fame first basemen through 1998:
Gehrig 182 Brouthers 170 Bagwell 161 Foxx 161 Greenberg 157 Mize 157 McCovey 148 Killebrew 142
The median Hall of Fame second baseman has an adjusted production of 123. Biggio’s adjusted production is 126. This would place him behind Rogers Hornsby, Nap Lajoie, Eddie Collins, Joe Morgan, Rod Carew and Jackie Robinson, but ahead of Charlie Gehringer, Frankie Frisch and several others. Moreover, Biggio has a higher adjusted production than other recent second baseman such as Roberto Alomar and Ryne Sandberg. Here is how Biggio stacks up to the top Hall of Fame second basemen:
Hornsby 176 Lajoie 150 Collins 141 Morgan 133 Carew 131 Robinson 131 Biggio 126 Gehringer 123 Lazzeri 122 Doerr 114 Herman 112 Frisch 110
While Bagwell and Biggio certainly rank among hall of famers at their positions in adjusted production, a couple of caveats must be borne in mind. First, Bagwell and Biggio will continue to amass counting statistics as their careers progress, but their rate statistics, like adjusted production, will decline as their skills deteriorate. Where they rank now is probably not where they will rank in a decade.
In addition, the writers who vote in Hall of Fame elections are not likely to care much about Bagwell and Biggio’s on-base percentage, slugging average or OPS. It goes almost without saying that the writers will likely not take into account era and ballpark like adjusted production does. Jimmy Wynn had an adjusted production of 129, better than Jim Rice’s 127. But partly because he played in Fenway Park in the ’70s instead of the Astrodome in the ’60s, Rice has been named on at least 40 percent of Hall of Fame ballots since 1996, whereas Wynn never received even a solitary vote.
Chances are Bagwell and Biggio will benefit from having played in the ’90s and that Enron Field will partially mask the decline in their statistics as they age that would have been more obvious in the Astrodome.
Besides looking at a measure of value like adjusted production, it is also useful to examine some methods that incorporate the qualifications usually required by Hall of Fame voters. One such approach is Bill James’ Hall of Fame monitor. The monitor does not purport to measure value in itself, but gives players points for accomplishments that impress the writers: batting .300, driving in 100 runs, leading the league in various categories, making the All-Star team, winning the Most Valuable Player award, belonging to a pennant-winning team, playing a key defensive position, etc.
The threshold of the Hall of Fame monitor is 100. A player over 100 most likely will meet with the approval of the writers. A player under 100 might not. At this point in their careers, Bagwell has 105 points, while Biggio has 94 points. These are excellent totals for players not yet in the twilight of their careers. Because the monitor is cumulative, Bagwell and Biggio will continue to compile points as long as they remain at a high level of play. Moreover, they will receive additional credit as they reach career milestones in hits and home runs.
By this method, which quantifies the criteria generally used by the voters, Bagwell is already at least minimally qualified as a Hall of Famer, and Biggio is close behind. The Hall of Fame monitor has not been recently updated to reflect the current offensive explosion, however, so while Bagwell and Biggio are already decent candidates as measured by this method, they almost certainly will require a score significantly beyond 100 to ensure themselves a place in Cooperstown.
Obviously one of the most important elements of making the Hall of Fame for Bagwell and Biggio will be their final career statistics. At present, though they fare well in adjusted production and on the Hall of Fame monitor, Bagwell has but 263 home runs and Biggio has only 1,868 hits. While there is no way to be certain what their career numbers will look like, it is possible to estimate Bagwell and Biggio’s chances of achieving particular milestones.
The 1999 STATS Major League Handbook has a section devoted to career assessments. Using a method developed by Bill James, the handbook presents a percentage chance for players to reach certain goals. The formula is based on the players needed hits, home runs or runs batted in, his age, and his established level of production based on his last three seasons.
Bagwell is projected to have a 42-percent chance to hit 500 home runs, a 9-percent chance to reach 3,000 hits, and a 15-percent chance to drive in 2,000 runs. Meanwhile, the formula estimates Biggio to have a 28-percent chance to reach 3,000 hits. Bagwell stands a fair chance to get his 300th home run in 2000, while Biggio will get his 2,000th hit if he stays healthy. With Bagwell at 32 and Biggio at 34 next season, they both have at least a few more productive years remaining in their careers.
A final evaluation of a candidate’s worthiness is subjective. Bill James has described four types of hall of famers. A definition-D hall of famer is a well above-average player. A definition-C hall of famer is a player consistently among the leagues best at his position. A definition-B hall of famer is a player among the greatest ever at his position. And a definition-A hall of famer is a player who could reasonably be argued to be the greatest ever at his position.
Bagwell and Biggio obviously meet definition D. They are more likely definition-C or even definition-B candidates. At various points in their careers both have been the league’s best player at their positions. Bagwell has won three Silver Sluggers, one Gold Glove award, been named to the Sporting News All-Star team four times, and has finished first, second, and third in Most Valuable Player balloting. Biggio has won five Silver Slugger and four Gold Glove awards, been named to the Sporting News All-Star team four times, and finished fourth and fifth in Most Valuable Player balloting. Bagwell has made the All-Star team four times, while Biggio has done so seven times.
In fact, according to Total Baseball’s total baseball ranking, which includes batting, fielding and ballpark and positional adjustments, Bagwell was the best player in the majors in 1994, while Biggio was the best player in the majors in 1997. In the 1999 STATS Major League Handbook, Bill James made an off-the-cuff comment that Biggio is the best player in baseball.
Whether Bagwell and Biggio end up among the greatest ever at their positions remains to be seen. They are certainly on a pace to do so. Definition A is probably out of reach, however. Bagwell is not likely to overcome Gehrig, and Biggio is not likely to overtake Hornsby as the greatest ever at their positions.
It should be noted, however, that Bagwell may very end his career as the best first baseman in the history of the National League. Gehrig, Foxx and Greenberg all played in the American League, as did Johnny Mize for a third of his career. If Bagwell plays long enough he will probably surpass Willie McCovey in greatness. Then Bagwell’s only competition would be Dan Brouthers, the premier power hitter of the 19th century. Suffice it to say that Bagwell is one of a kind.
A pair of likely future hall of famers have not yet yielded a championship for the Astros, but it has been extraordinarily entertaining watching them play over the years. Biggio is now signed with the team for four more years, while it is hoped that Bagwell will be similarly retained with an extension after next season. It can be argued that perhaps other than the Mariners, with Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez, a tandem likely to be broken up in the near future, no recent team has been as blessed to have two position players of such remarkable quality in the same line-up for an extended period of time.
It would be fitting to see both their plaques hanging at Cooperstown someday.