By Matthew Becker
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on December 18, 1999.
In the last few days, the most common question asked on the TZ is “How do the Astros expect to win with this?” Well, the answer to that question is reliant on one condition: winning what? If you want to win the Central my friends, we’re already there. To put our moves in perspective, let’s look at what the teams in our division have done to “improve” their teams, and with apologies to Ray K, here are my Central Division Power Rankings.
1. Houston:
New Acquisitions: SS Adam Everett, P Greg Miller
Lost Players: CF Carl Everett, OF Ryan Thompson, C Randy Knorr
With the loss of Everett, the Houston OF looks shaky, but with a solid lineup, looks to continue to pound the ball. Barring a Hampton trade, Houston looks to have the second-best rotation in the NL, with the best closer. The main questions nagging at us right now are about our rotation. First of all, can Lima keep the ball in the EFUS? That short porch in left looks awfully inviting…and secondly, how will Elarton’s arm hold up after the surgery? Even with the rotation questions, and the loss of Everett, this is still the team to beat, mainly due to the lack of competition.
Projected record: 92-70
Projected record w/o Hampton: 89-73
2. St. Louis:
New Acquisitions: SP Pat Hentgen, Darryl Kile, RP Paul Spoljaric, Dave Veres, Luther Hackman, OF Dante Powell
Lost Players: RP Lance Painter, Manny Aybar, Matt DeWitt, Rick Croushore SP Jose Jimenez, C Alberto Castillo, SS Brent Butler, SS Luis Ordaz
Probably the most improved team in the Central, but with Mac’s age, Davis’s injuries, and McEwing coming down to Earth, Ray Lankford and J.D. Drew are going to be expected to carry the offense, something which these two players are not going to be able to do. Hentgen and Kile are not the answer, and Cardinal fans will learn that the hard way in 2000.
Projected record: 87-75
3. Cincinnati
New Acquisitions: OF Dante Bichette, OF Kimera Bartree
Lost Players: OF Jeffrey Hammonds, RP Stan Belinda, C Brian Johnson, RP Mark Wohlers, OF Greg Vaughn
The Reds will probably see the biggest decline in the Central. Here’s three numbers for you: 113, 111, and 93. Those are the innings pitched last year for the best bullpen trio in the majors, Scott Sullivan, Danny Graves, and Scott Williamson. Is it any coincidence that they faded down the stretch? I don’t think so. These innings are going to catch up to them, especially this year, and I see major surgery down the road for them if McKeon doesn’t slow these three down. The rotation will crack, and the bullpen will not be there to pick up the pieces.
Projected record: 84-78
4. Pittsburgh
New Acquisitions: OF Bruce Aven, RP Roberto Manzuete, OF Wil Cordero
Lost Players: OF Brant Brown, RP Brad Clontz
4 years, 15 million. 3 years, 9 million. Those are the contracts for Pat Meares and Wil Cordero, respectively. A small market team just can’t afford to go out and waste money like this. With all their minor league talent, this team will remain in mediocrity due to signings like this. 3 years down the road, when Benson and Morris are un-able to be re-signed, Pittsburgh fans can look upon Meares and Cordero and realize why they won’t be headed back to the playoffs anytime soon.
Projected record: 82-80
5. Chicago
New Acquisitions: SP Ismael Valdes, 2B Eric Young, OF Damon Buford, C Joe Girardi
Lost Players: 3B Gary Gaetti, SS Jeff Blauser, C Benito Santiago, OF Lance Johnson, RP Terry Adams, RP Chad Ricketts, RP Brian Stephenson, SS Manny Alexander
If you haven’t heard my take on the re-signing of Jon Lieber (3 years/15 million), you’re going to hear it now, and my apologies to you if you’ve already heard this:
Pitcher A: Age OD2000: 30
1999 Stats: 31 Starts, 203 IP, 226H, 28 HR, 10-11, 4.07 ERA
Best Year (same as 1999)
Pitcher B: Age OD2000: 28
1999 Stats: 26 Starts (31 G), 164 IP, 193 H, 12 HR, 5-13, 4.66 ERA
Best Year (1997): 32 Starts, 210 IP, 211 H, 17 HR, 8-12, 3.52 ERA
So, Pitcher B is younger, just came off an injury, but has shown much better promise than Pitcher A, and had similar (except ERA) stats in 1999. Pitcher A is the rich Jon Lieber, Pitcher B is our beloved Chris Holt. Is Lieber worth 5 million? God, I hope not… or else the CBA needs some major adjustments.
Projected Record: 75-87
6. Milwaukee
New Acquisitions: P Curt Leskanic, SP Jamey Wright, C Henry Blanco, P Jimmy Haynes, OF James Mouton, SS Jose Hernandez
Lost Players: SP Hideo Nomo, P Scott Karl, P Mike Myers, 3B Jeff Cirillo, P Eric Plunk
Losing an all-star caliber 3B hurts.a lot. Losing your two best pitchers in Scott Karl and Hideo Nomo also hurts. Hernandez is not the answer at third, although he’ll put up respectable numbers. Anytime you sign Mouton to fill a hole in the outfield, you’re asking for trouble. Believe it or not, this team is actually going to be worse this year. On the positive side: Geoff Jenkins will come into his own this year…and will be a Yankee by 2001.
Projected Record: 70-92
The way things are shaping out so far, it looks like the Astros will repeat (again) as Central Division champions, even with the loss of Everett, and even if we lose Hampy. Let’s just hope we can get something for Mike, if we do trade him. This team also looks very good in the years to come, with minor league talent coming up by the truckload. To me, there’s really nothing to worry about. True, we’re getting rid of some payroll, but we’re still very competitive. Will we do anything in the playoffs? Probably not, but there’s always a chance, and it’s not like we’ve been tearing it up there lately anyway!