By Michael N
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on November 30, 1999.
A multitude of requests, insults, threats and a fired press secretary have prompted the return of Minor Opinions. And I know you must all be positively giddy with anticipation…
This issue will feature the top 10 prospects, hitters or pitchers, in the Astros organization. Players considered for the list are those not likely to be on the 25-man big league roster Opening Day, and are listed in order of what I consider to be their long-term potential. A certain national publication will be publishing their Top 10 list in a couple of weeks, so feel free to compare them in the TalkZone when the other is published. Upcoming Minor Opinions issues will focus on the results from the lower minors in ’99, players I expect to be moved quickly in the system and fall/winter league notes.
Now, on to the list:
1. Lance Berkman – OF/1B (Age Opening Day: 23, B: S, T: L)
Berkman suffered a double whammy to his progress in ’99. First, early season surgery to his knee which shelved him for a month in New Orleans and, secondly, getting a call-up to ride the bench in Houston as an injury replacement. This limited his action to a total of 319 ABs in 1999. For reference, that is a lesser total than Richard Hidalgo had last year.
Despite the setbacks, Berkman had a pretty fair season at the plate. He hit .328/.419/.519 in New Orleans and .237/.321/.387 in Houston. He continues to show good understanding of the strike zone and reasonable plate discipline, but major league starters were able to get him out fairly consistently with junk on or off the outside corner of the plate. It is definitely something Lance needs to work on, but if he learns to take those pitches up the middle or to the opposite field consistently, Berkman has the ability to be an All-Star for many years in MLB.
Unless the Astros deal a couple of outfielders and get no major-league level replacements in return, I don’t see Berkman getting any more than a good look-see in Spring Training this year. There are just too many quality OFs in Houston and it does no good to have Berkman wasting away on the pine at the EFUS. There are still some rough spots to smooth in his game and that is not likely to be done while chatting with Matt Galante or Rex Jones during gametime. He needs to play every day and that means at least a few more months in the Big Easy.
I still think that this guy is going to be a better player than Daryle Ward. Ward is clearly the better hitter at this stage in their developments, but Berkman is the better athlete and will eventually have the better all-around game.
2. Wilfredo Rodriguez – LHP (AOD: 21)
Astro fans, get down on your knees and pray that nothing happens to this guy’s arm over the next couple of seasons. We may have the makings of a future ace in this kid.
In last year’s Minor Opinions assessment of Rodriguez, it was speculated that if he grew a bit stronger and a bit more mechanically sound he would add 2-3 MPH to his already low 90s fastball. Well, wonders never cease. Rodriguez was occasionally clocked at 97 MPH in 1999. And the good news does not end there. Working extensively with the Kissimmee coaches, Rodriguez has improved his curveball dramatically. Couple these developments with a serviceable changeup and it is safe to say that when Rodriguez had both pitches working, he was virtually untouchable for Florida State League hitters.
Here is the proof: 153.1 IP, 108 H, 62 BB, 148 K, 2.88 ERA, .199 OBA. Those are outstanding numbers and, when you consider a 20-year old left-hander posted them in high-A ball, they speak volumes about the potential Rodriguez possesses. 2000 should be a watershed season for Rodriguez. Though the FSL experienced a rare offensive year in ’99 and Rodriguez dominated from the mound, the AA Texas League is a very different ballgame. The new Round Rock franchise will be in the league’s Western Division and Wilfredo will be subjected to the launching pads in Midland and El Paso at least a couple of times next year in an already offense-minded league. Am I ever glad that I have my season tickets.
Though he is #2 on the list and you will read about many other quality players in the Astro minor league system, in this writer’s view Rodriguez is THE minor league player to watch next season in the Astro system.
3. Wade Miller – RHP (AOD: 23)
So, you may be saying, why the heck does this guy merit a #3 ranking in the list? Is the Astro system hurting that badly from all the trades of the last two years? Miller didn’t have all that great of a year. He got lit up by the D-backs in his only start as an Astro and his AAA ERA was in the mid-4s for crying out loud!
Well, let’s look at some raw numbers:Pitcher #1: 146.0 IP, 122 H, 58 BB, 150 K, 4.50 ERA, .226 OBA W. Miller: 162.1 IP, 156 H, 64 BB, 135 K, 4.38 ERA, .248 OBANot a whole heck of a lot of difference is there? Now take into account that Miller had all of 10 starts above A-ball before making the jump to AAA in ’99, and it might surprise you to learn that the Pitcher #1 line represents the AAA numbers put up by Scott Elarton.
Whoa. Wait a minute, say you. Are you really comparing Wade Miller with Scott Elarton? Well, yes and no. Their AAA results are similar, but Elarton certainly has the edge on Miller in several categories that make a pitcher effective. He’s much taller, has better command of more pitches, a great makeup on the mound and has proven extremely durable. But I can tell you that I have never seen an Elarton fastball do as much as I’ve seen Miller’s. It is exactly that movement on his 93-95 MPH fastball, his relative youth and inexperience while posting quality numbers that has me believing Miller possesses the potential to be a quality major league starter in a year or so.
In the past, the preferred method of grooming starters has been to give them time in the bully when they arrive in Houston. This may be what will happen for Miller. But I don’t see it happening in April ’00. Miller should start the year in New Orleans again, spending time working on his off-speed arsenal. There is not enough room in the Astro rotation for him and I don’t think this is the time for him in the pen. He is not as polished as Elarton was at this stage and would benefit from at least another 15-20 starts in AAA. Late ’00 or next spring will be his time.
4. Julio Lugo – SS (AOD: 24, B: R, T: R)
Julio Lugo probably did more to enhance his chances at becoming a major league performer in the near future than any other player in the Astros’ minor league chain during 1999. After being stuck in A-ball during ’98, at an age where one hopes to be in AA ball, Lugo took advantage of the opportunity that is the jump from A to AA when it came this past season.
Despite some nagging little injuries and an automobile accident that shelved him for short periods of the season, Lugo responded with a very nice season at the plate (.319/.381/.463) while showing decent pop for a middle infielder. But the best news is that Lugo struck out only 53 times in 445 ABs. In other words, he puts the ball in play so he can utilize his considerable speed on the bases. And if he continues to build on these kinds of numbers, Lugo may ultimately end up the prototypical #2 or #8 hitter in a major league lineup.
As far as his defense is concerned, there is real promise and also room for improvement. No one questions Lugo’s great range and good arm. However, he does not seem to be an instinctive fielder or very fluid. Lugo improved his defensive performance from last year to this, but he still has some work to do before Hunsicker is likely to hand him the everyday duties at a critical defensive position. Though Mark Grudzielalphabet still plays SS in the majors, so who knows?
The keys for Lugo are to continue to hone his defensive skills, maintain his low strikeout totals while increasing his walks and, for goodness’ sake, don’t attempt to be a power hitter ala Andujar Cedeno or Orlando Miller. I expect him to bump Carlos Hernandez back to 2B and form a pretty darn good middle infield for the Zephyrs next season.
5. Tony McKnight – RHP (AOD: 22)
Finally fulfilling the promise that made him a first round draft choice in 1995, McKnight enjoyed a wonderful season at AA Jackson in ’99: 160.1 IP, 134 H, 44 BB, 118 K, 2.75 ERA, .222 OBA. An argument could be made McKnight was the best pitcher in the Texas League last year not named Rick Ankiel.
A decent comparison to make regarding McKnight’s stuff and makeup on the mound is a junior version of Darryl Kile. The man possesses a fantastic curveball, likes it a bit too much, is 6’5″ and at this point in his career needs only a better grasp on how to set up his curve with his decent fastball (89-91 MPH). Does this all sound familiar? Personally, I’m having flashbacks to the early-to-mid 90s. Let’s just hope this time around there is only love and not as much hate in the relationship.
My only concern about McKnight is that in each of the seasons since he was drafted he has suffered some sort of elbow or shoulder problem. As far as I know there is nothing seriously wrong with him, just nagging strains. But this kind of situation can become chronic, so it certainly bears watching.
Something tells me McKnight will struggle in his first year at New Orleans as he adjusts to the altitude of some of the PCL parks. But perhaps this will be the tonic he needs and force him to use and trust his fastball as much as he does Uncle Charlie.
6. Eric Ireland – RHP (AOD: 23)
There comes a time when you have to accept that a guy who does not possess a blazing fastball, a knee-buckling curve or a devastating slider just might know how to freaking pitch. Introduce yourself to Mr. Ireland.
Taken with the next pick after McKnight in the ’95 draft from a California HS, Ireland has gone on to annually post the best stats of any pitcher on any staff of which he has been a member. This past season was no different. His ’99 season can only be described as unbelievable: 170.1 IP, 145 H, 30 BB, 133 K, 2.06 ERA, .228 OBA and a perfect game.
How the heck does this guy do it? Ireland has pinpoint control and hardly anything he throws comes at a hitter without some sort of late movement. He also makes hitters swing the bat, witness the 30 free passes in 170+ innings. He’s as stingy with walks as Shane Reynolds.
But the pitcher he resembles the most in the majors is Greg Maddux. Ireland routinely pitches 7-9 inning games while throwing fewer than 100-110 pitches. Economy is good. So is constantly moving the ball all over the strike zone, having great, late movement and leaving your opponents baffled as to why they could not hit stuff that can’t break eggs. Ireland will join Rodriguez in Round Rock next season. The Express staff looks to be in quite capable hands.
7. Chris Truby – 3B (AOD: 26, B: R, T: R)
This was a hard call. Truby is an outstanding defensive player with excellent range, good hands and a plus throwing arm. During ’98 he finally showed that he could hit the ball with power. In fact, over the last two years, Truby’s 127 XBH and 59 HRs are the most by any player in the Astro minor league system. He’s even got decent wheels as he has stole 20 bags in ’99 despite tendinitis in his knee.
So what is the problem? Why is he so low on the list? Well, Chris turns 27 in May. That’s the problem #1. Problem #2 is Ken Caminiti and a grass (not Astroturf) field in the EFUS. Problem #3 is basically zero experience above AA ball in an organization that rarely promotes players without at least a year in AAA. Ouch.
From all accounts, Truby is a great guy, a mature player, good in the clubhouse and a hard worker. What stinks for him is that by the time he is likely to make it as a full-time player in the majors, he will probably be 29 years old and on the downhill side of his playing ability just as he is beginning his career. Contrast that with Caminiti who earned the third base job at the relatively old age of 26. That’s why I don’t consider Truby to be a long-term prospect or solution to the coming need for a hot corner man in Houston.
The best case scenario for Truby would be for him to absolutely destroy AAA pitching early in the season. This might pressure the organization to give up on the notion Russ Johnson is a 3B and allow Truby to be called up for the occasional rest Caminiti needs. Perhaps this leads to a full-time job for him in 2001.
8. Mike Nannini – RHP (AOD: 19)
The little guy (5’10” in his spikes) can just flat bring it. A plus fastball that occasionally hits the mid-90s to go with a good slider and bulldog attitude makes Nannini a right-handed Gas Can. Though this young man may actually remain a starter.
Last season, Nannini started the year in mid-A Michigan against players who were, on average, two-three years older and with much more professional experience. And Mike did a reasonable job against such advanced competition: 87.1 IP, 107 H, 31 BB, 68 K, 4.43 ERA, .302 OBA.
But it is when the short-season A-ball team at Auburn got cranked up that Nannini showed what he is capable of: 75.2 IP, 55 H, 17 BB, 86 K, 1.90 ERA, .205 OBA. Nannini is overly aggressive at times, like trying to throw the pill past every hitter, and needs to learn how to really pitch. But there is no denying the talent in his right arm. He is both mature and certainly young enough to overcome his bad tendencies and make the adjustment from being a thrower to a pitcher. I really like his chances.
9. Jeriome Robertson – LHP (AOD: 23)
Once again, a pitcher without blazing stuff — just effective and consistently better outcomes from year to year.
Robertson used his outstanding performance in the ’98 Arizona Fall League as a springboard to a very fine, workhorse season in the AA Texas League: 191 IP, 184 H, 45 BB, 118 K, 3.06 ERA, .253 OBA. His IP total and wins (15) led the league.
A smart pitcher who stays within his limitations, Robertson is the very definition of a crafty left-hander. I see the jump from AA to AAA affecting him less than McKnight, though Robertson does not have nearly the same kind of stuff. And I give even money odds on Robertson being called up to Houston before McKnight because of his experience, maturity and good health.
10. Roy Oswalt – RHP (AOD: 23)
Oswalt has some of the most wicked stuff in the minor leagues. But the guy just has just started to get over the injury bug.
In ’99 he got a late start to the mid-A season, but was finally healthy enough to put in over 100 innings for the first time since signing with Houston in ’97: 151.1 IP, 144 H, 54 BB, 143 K, 4.46 ERA, .251 OBA. You are probably saying that I am insane for listing a guy with an ERA in the mid-4s and who allows an opponent’s batting average of .251. Just understand that Oswalt gave up fewer hits than innings pitched while calling the Midwest League’s version of Coors Field home. Oswalt was the only Battle Cat starter to accomplish this feat in ’99 and it was a big factor in his going 13-4 on the season.
Oswalt is a bit behind his age group in terms of advancement up the minor league ladder. But if he remains healthy and successful, this is a guy who could be moved very quickly.
Just missing the Top 10 cut:
Keith Ginter – 2B plays smart and hard. Poor man’s Biggio. Nice AFL season in ’99.
Aaron McNeal – Midwest League MVP in ’99 at 1B. Ks way too much, but what power!
Doug Sessions – RHRP dominated two levels: 58.2 IP, 15 BB, 73 K, 1.69 ERA.