For much of the season I savored the prospect of Jeff Bagwell winning another MVP award by an overwhelming margin. Yet Bagwell has allowed the gap between him and the rest of the league to close in the last couple of months. Many commentators now believe that Chipper Jones is the frontrunner for the award due to his sparkling performance against the Mets last week. Folks shouldn’t be so quick to annoint Jones, however.
For starters, let’s look at some other candidates. Here are the league leaders in OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average):
Player OPS ----------------- L. Walker 1.168 M. McGwire 1.094 C. Jones 1.082 J. Bagwell 1.060 B. Giles 1.032 S. Sosa 1.009
Assuming you subscribe to the theory that the MVP must play for a contending team, Jones and Bagwell are the only qualified players on the list. If you don’t make team performance a factor, it’s still difficult to consider Larry Walker given the massive home-park advantage he’s enjoyed. His batting average is 175 points higher, OBP is 156 points higher, and slugging average is 360 points higher at home than on the road.
Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa are again jostling for the league lead in home runs and RBI, while McGwire overshadows everyone except Walker in OPS. Given that he was even more dominant last year and failed to win the MVP award, it’s doubtful that McGwire will receive much support this season. He’s probably still the most fearsome offensive force in baseball. Sosa, like last year, has hit for a decent average and with great power, but his relative inability to reach base puts his value in question next to McGwire, Bagwell and Jones. Brian Giles? I’ll leave his argument for the MVP award to your imagination.
Here are some other players from contending teams ranked by OPS:
Player OPS ----------------- C. Everett .973 L. Gonzalez .954 M. Piazza .950 S. Casey .947 J. Bell .916 R. Ventura .912 R. Henderson .907 J. Olerud .902
Last month ESPN’s Gary Thorne suggested that a Mets player would have trouble winning the MVP award because it would be difficult to distinguish himself from his outstanding teammates. The truth is that none of the Mets players rivals Bagwell or Jones offensively. On the other hand, with four players with an OPS in the .900s, it’s easy to see part of the reason for New York’s success until the last few games. Matt Williams failed to make the list due to his middling OBP, but he’ll receive support since he’s competing with McGwire and Sosa for the league lead in RBI. Given that Jones’ other offensive statistics are noticeably better and they play the same position, I can’t see justification for giving the award to Williams over Jones.
Thus, let’s proceed on the assumption that Bagwell and Jones are likely the class of the National League. In many respects, they’re deadlocked statistically:
Player Avg OBP Slg OPS 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO SB CS SB% ---------------------------------------------------------------- Bagwell .310 .456 .604 1.060 35 0 42 139 124 142 125 28 10 74 Jones .319 .441 .641 1.082 41 1 45 115 107 123 91 24 3 89
Bagwell has a higher OBP, but Jones has a higher slugging average. Jones has a higher batting average and more extra-base hits, but Bagwell has more walks. Bagwell has stolen more bases, but Jones has been caught fewer times. The glaring difference between them is runs and RBI, which are usually very important to the MVP voters. Runs and RBI are, of course, heavily dependent on opportunities and situational hitting. Take a look at their situational statistics:
-----Runners On----- --------RISP-------- ---RBI Opp-- Player Avg OBP Slg OPS Avg OBP Slg OPS RBI Opp Pct ---------------------------------------------------------------- Bagwell .309 .463 .619 1.082 .343 .526 .755 1.281 124 907 13.7 Jones .270 .420 .504 .924 .295 .455 .605 1.060 107 854 12.5
Bagwell has hit much better with runners on base and in scoring position. Although he’s had more RBI opportunities, he’s also converted them at a higher rate. This helps explain Bagwell’s superior RBI total. It doesn’t shed any light on his higher run total. Bagwell has reached base more often, but his greater number of runs scored might be attributable to better base running or the performance of the hitters behind him when he was on base.
There’s also the issue of ballparks. Turner Field has proven to be a pitchers’ park, while the Astrodome is less of a pitchers’ park than it used to be. This year the Astros and their opponents have scored about 8 percent fewer runs at home than on the road, while the Braves and their opponents have scored about 12 percent fewer runs at home than on the road. If anything, Turner Field has been a better pitchers’ park this year than the Astrodome, although single-season park-effect statistics aren’t particularly reliable. There’s certainly no evidence that a significant ballpark difference exists between them.
Furthermore, it’s important to remember that elite hitters are less common among third basemen than among first basemen. The average third baseman has an OPS about 41 points lower than the average first baseman. In other words, the margin between Jones and the average third baseman is greater than that between Bagwell and the average first baseman. I estimate that Bagwell has been about 36 runs better than the average first baseman this season, while Jones has been about 48 runs better than the average third baseman. That’s an advantage of about 12 runs for Jones.
On the other hand, Jones has been awful defensively this year. He’s last in the league in assists per game, double plays per game, range factor, and zone rating, and is second-to-last in putouts per game. He’s in the middle of the pack in fielding percentage and errors, but you can’t commit errors on plays you don’t have the range to make. It’s pretty likely that Jones has cost his team at least 12 runs with his glove. Bagwell, on the other hand, has been average or a little better defensively, albeit at the least demanding of defensive positions.
Most of this isn’t going to matter to the MVP voters. Writers don’t care much about or understand defense other than the highlights they see on ESPN, CNN, and Fox. Nor are most of them concerned that Bagwell has been the better situational hitter. History tells us that Bagwell’s runs and RBI will aid him in the voting, but they’ll help Sosa, McGwire, and particularly Williams, too. Then there’s the issue of whether Randy Johnson, Mike Hampton, and Kevin Millwood deserve mention in MVP discussion. I won’t even get into that.
But the thing that will probably hold the most sway over the voters is Jones’ heroics over the last week. That’s a real shame, because there’s more to a season than the waning days of September, and there’s more than meets the eye in comparing Bagwell and Jones. I started out thinking that given their offensive similarities, I’d have to pick Jones because he plays a more demanding defensive position where great hitters are more infrequent. Yet after considering Bagwell’s superior hitting with runners on base and in scoring position, as well as Jones’ abysmal fielding, I might cast a vote for Bagwell.