By Clint B.
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on July 13, 1999.
Well, here we are- the midway point of the 1999 season. Lots of surprises have filled the world of baseball this season. Who would have thought that the Diamondbacks, who finished with the majors’ second worst record in ’98, would be in contention in the N.L. West? Who would have ever imagined that Cincinnati, instead of say Chicago, would challenge the two-time defending N.L. Central champion Houston Astros? Not many. Right now, there are lots of questions surrounding the state of the Astros. Sure, they have played extremely well under the horrific circumstances, but have lacked some enthusiasm the past month, and have let the Reds creep into the race and into first place after the Fourth-of-the-July weekend series split with Cincy. Here are some of the things I will expect in major league baseball’s second half.
Jeff Bagwell is off to another MVP-caliber season. His 26 homers, 71 RBI and .320 average has him close to a possible triple crown. If those numbers aren’t good enough for him to win his second most valuable player award, I don’t what are. The other possible candidates are Colorado’s Larry Walker and the Cubs’ Sammy Sosa. Even if Sosa has 60 homers at the end of this campaign, his team’s performance is what will deny him from claiming his second straight award. Walker leads the league in batting, and is among the top 5 in homers and is second in runs batted in. Both are better-than-average base runners, but when was the last time the Rockies made any noise in the West? If the Astros are to claim their third consecutive Central division crown, it will be because of the Bagwell, which is why we should expect Bagwell to win the NL MVP.
The Astros’ big three who has better numbers, but not as great publicity as Atlanta’ big three (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz), is without a doubt the best starting trio in the league, if not the entire major leagues. With Shane Reynolds, Jose Lima and Mike Hampton all in double figures in victories and all among the league lead in ERA, expect at least one of three to be in the running for the Cy Young award. The last time an Astro pitcher pulled down that honor, was Mike Scott back in the division-winning season of 1986. He had to pull a no-hitter late in September to in order to nail down the award. The general public just does not seem to give the Astros the much deserved respect they deserve. The ‘Stros are one of only three teams in the major leagues to have a winning record in the ’90s. I expect Shane Reynolds to be the one considered for the award. He may have been overshadowed by Lima and Hampton in the first half of the season, but expect Shane, who could be an 11-game winner if not for the suspended San Diego game, to have a big second half and win 20 games.
The improved offensive production from the outfield has been significant. With Moises Alou out for the entire first half and perhaps gone for most of the second half, Richard Hidalgo and Carl Everett have stepped up big-time in his absence. The two have combined to hit 24 homers and drive 106 runs. With second halves that remotely resemble the ones put up in the season’s first 81 games, both could be looking at 25-homer, 100-RBI seasons. Everett, with 20 steals through his team’s first 81 games, is on pace to lead the club with 40. Hidalgo leads the major leagues in outfield assists in left field with 9. I don’t think that number will double, however, seeing the most of the league is aware of Doggie’s throwing capabilities. The only flaw in Richard’s game appears to be coming up with the big hit. His along with fellow outfielder Derek Bell’s batting average has slipped under .250, despite good offensive production numbers.
With the Cincinnati Reds making a late surge during the final 2 weeks leading up to the midway point and taking a narrow division lead, it looks to be dog fight in the second half. For the Astros, they are very much looking forward to the All-Star break next week. If any team is more deserving of the three-day vacation, it’s the ‘Stros. No team has been hit with more key injuries in the National League than the Astros. The reason why the Reds have been playing so well of late, in my opinion, has been their high level of confidence that began it’s uprising when they swept the then-first place Arizona Diamondbacks in late-June, before taking four straight at Houston. That is why it was so important for the Astros to at least settle with a split in this past four-game series with the Reds to let them know that they wouldn’t just sit around and let them do what they wanted with them. I think the Astros have gained a little respect from the Reds after winning those two games in Cincinnati. Maybe the Reds will finally start to realize they are playing above their heads, and that they are not in the same class as Houston. I think with key people on the DL coming back and the return of Larry Dierker to the dugout will be enough to ignite this team and propel them back to the postseason as Central division champs.
In the National League, I see the ATL coasting the East, the Astros taking the Central, the Giants emerging from the West and the Reds snagging the Wild Card. In the divisional series, I like the Braves to take 3 of 5 from Cincinnati, while the Astros doing the same with San Fran. In the NLCS, the ATL receive payback in the worst way. ‘Stros torch Braves’ heralded pitching staff for 10 runs, while tossing a shutout in Game 7 of the championship series. Payback’s a bitch, ain’t it?