By Michael N
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on June 21, 1999.
First things first. For those of you who do not already know, Michael N does not much care for relief pitchers. My good friend, TalkZone ambulance-chaser extraodinaire Jim R, was used in a relief capacity during his career on the 40 Acres and Larry Anderson and Charlie Kerfeld may have been the funniest Astros of all-time. So it is not a personal animus. I just don’t much care for the concept, and given that relief pitchers in the minor leagues are an even lesser species, in the 1999 Minor Opinions review of Astro pitching farmhands you will find NO and I repeat NO guys currently pitching from the pen.
The current crop of future Astro hurlers is not exactly a collection of flame-throwers, but there are a few exceptions and several guys with room to add a few MPH to their fastballs. The organization is also a bit short on guys who are likely to be a help to the big club this year. Yet, the good news is that there are quite a few quality arms in the A-levels who hold great promise.
Yeah, yeah, I know. The big jump in the minors is from A-ball to AA. But when an organization has as many quality young arms in A-ball as the Astros do, it shouldn’t be that big a leap of faith to say at least one or two of those guys ought to make good.
So, in order to make Paul G a happy man and allow him to sleep at night knowing Legends are Legends for a reason…. Minor Opinions presents the Top 10 Astro pitching prospects for 1999…
1. Wade Miller
2. Wilfredo Rodriguez
3. Roy Oswalt
4. Eric Ireland
5. Tony McKnight
6. Johan Santana
7. Jeriome Robertson
8. Mike Nannini
9. Derek Root
10. Brian Sikorski
WADE MILLER: (AAA, T: R, B: R, DOB 9/13/76)
Miller is a wonderful success story. He was a 20th round selection in the 1996 draft out of tiny Alvernia College; a young man with a very live arm, but little refinement. In an amazingly short amount of time and despite losing the majority of last year to tendinitis of the middle finger on his pitching hand, Miller has rocketed up the Astro pitching charts. He is now the guy most likely to follow the Astro-preferred method (see Reynolds, Hampton, Lima, Bergman and, now, Elarton) of moving to the pen in the major leagues to get his feet wet before moving to the rotation. Expect this to happen pretty darn soon, too.
Sporting a fastball that regularly hits the mid-90s, an improving slider and change, Miller has been pretty darned close to dominant in his last 5 starts at New Orleans. In those starts, he’s compiled 34 IP, 26 H, 5 ER, 11 BB, 29 K, 4 wins and 1 no decision. Four of the five earned runs have come on solo home runs. For the seasons his numbers are:
8-3 W-L, 13 GS, 79.1 IP, 75 H, 30 ER, 28 BB, 72 K, 3.40 ERA
Don’t let the ERA throw you off too much. In the PCL, that comes close to microscopic numbers. In fact, Elarton’s ERA in New Orleans prior to his call-up was 4.01. But whereas I see Elarton potentially becoming a true staff ace in MLB, I see Wade Miller becoming a Shane Reynolds-type starter. That means a very reliable, occasionally dominant starter that you need in order to round out a solid top-to-bottom rotation. Wade’s career minor league totals to date:
32-13 W-L, 57 GS, 366.1 IP, 305 H, 117 ER, 95 BB, 310 K
Those are very nice career numbers in terms of W+H/9 IP and BB/K ratios. Very nice, indeed. My guess is that we see Miller get 6-7 more starts in the Big Easy. Should he continue to throw as well as he has to date, the Astros should be tempted enough to give him a plane ticket to Houston this season.
ETA: late July, early August 1999
WILFREDO RODRIQUEZ (High-A , T: L, B: L, DOB : 3/20/79)
I think we just might have something very, very special here. This 6′ 3″, 175 lb.(I don’t care what the Media Guide says, 180 my foot. He weighs 175, at best.) lefty from Venezuela already throws low 90s heat that has a natural sink to it and a quality curve. Many people I have talked to think that when Wilfredo gets a bit stronger as he grows into his body, there is a chance that his fastball may gain 2-3 MPH. He needs a bit work on his changeup, but a funky 3/4 -type delivery makes all of his pitches tough to see out of his hand.
But look at the age! There are only two younger pitchers on this list (Nannini, a year younger, and Santana, a week younger) and both of those guys are a full level below Rodriguez. That may not sound significant, but it is. Being one level ahead amounts to his having a full year of development on the rest of his peers.
The only worry I have for Rodriguez is that the young starters who shined in Quad City last year, all threw a TON of innings Rodriguez threw 165 innings in ’98, fully 97 innings more than he had ever thrown in a season. Unfortunately he’s paying for it a bit this season. Thank the Deity he hasn’t blown his arm out, but he has suffered from a minor elbow strain that has sapped a bit of his strength. Oftentimes this year at Kissimmee, Rodriguez has been pitching superb baseball only to run out of gas in the 5th or 6th innings. But there may be light at the end of the tunnel. In his last start, Wilfredo threw 7 innings of no-hit, 2-walk, 9-strikeout baseball while on a pitch count.
Rodriguez is a polished and mature young man who understands pitching. Health and physical maturity are the only two things that could possibly de-rail this promising young starter. In my opinion, he is that good. Gerry, Tim, Andres and crew…. take ever precaution with this kid. He has star written all over him.
Year-to-date stats:
6-3 W-L, 12 GS, 70.1 IP, 56 H, 28 ER, 32 BB, 56 K, 3.58 ERA
I like the fact that hitters are still not getting many knocks off of Rodriguez, but the BB numbers are a bit out of character and smack of a tired pitcher. My guess is that the BB/K numbers get better as the season goes on and Rodriguez emerges as one of the top pitchers in the Florida State League in the second half.
Career stats (as starter):
25-10 W-L, 51 GS, 303.1 IP, 232 H, 107 ER, 126 BB, 297 K, 3.17 ERA
Just look at that; 303.1 IP and 232 H while averaging nearly a K per IP. Hallmarks of a pitcher to watch for the future.
ETA: 2001 version of Elarton and Miller, with call-up in July or August.
ROY OSWALT (Mid-A, T: R, B: R, DOB: 8/29/77)
Oswalt just may have the best pure stuff of any pitcher in the entire system. His fastball is consistently in the low to mid-90s and he has the best curveball this organization may have seen since The Traitor.
So why the heck is this guy still in Mid-A ball? Unfortunately, Oswalt has had some bouts with little injuries to his elbow. Nothing major like surgery was required, but they have caused a delay in his development. No question that at Oswalt’s age (21) and with his physical skills he should be in Kissimmee and not Michigan. But with a return to health and a chance to pitch competitively, Oswalt has shined this year. So far at Michigan, Oswalt has put up these sparkling numbers:
6-1 W-L, 8 GS, 53.1 IP, 49 H, 20 ER, 18 BB, 58 K, 3.38 ERA
Most of that ERA comes from one poor start, but in his other 7 starts, Oswalt has clearly been one of the top 5 starters in the Midwest League w/ a very nice 3.2/1 K to BB ratio.
Roy’s career numbers look like this:
14-12 W-L, 37 GS, 219.2 IP, 183 H, 69 ER, 72 BB, 228 K, 2.83 ERA
That is pretty much outstanding and Roy is certainly deserving of a mid-season call-up to Kissimmee to get his development back on track. Oswalt is not a real big guy at 6′, 170 lbs. But should he continue his dominance, you may see this guy move very quickly up the Astro chain. A guy with this kind of stuff is difficult to keep buried in the low minors.
ETA: If he stays healthy, perhaps late 2001. More elbow problems and it’ll be 2002 at best or if ever.
ERIC IRELAND (High-A, T: R, B: R, DOB: 3/11/77)
1999 at Kissimmee:
5-3 W-L, 13 GS, 91 IP, 73 H, 15 ER, 16 BB, 78 K, 1.48 ERA
I can already hear the chorus… What the hell are you thinking putting this guy at #4? Get him in Houston ASAP!! Well, I imagine Ireland would like that, but slow down a minute. This is, after all, only A-ball…
Eric was a second round pick in the 1995 draft out of a HS in California. He’s not a great big guy at 6′ 1″, 170, nor does he possess big stuff. But the guy CLEARLY knows what the heck he’s doing on the mound. His fastball is only major league average (88-90 MPH), but it has fantastic natural sinking motion and he has a very tight curve that he will throw at any time for strikes. Obviously the hitters in Florida are completely baffled so far by Ireland and it is entirely possible that he will see some time in (AA) Jackson this year.
As with Rodriguez, I have some big concerns that Ireland may suffer some sort of arm problem in the near future. He led the ENTIRE minor leagues in innings pitched last season at Quad City with 206. Amazingly, thus far in 1999, Ireland is on nearly the same pace of IP/GS as he was last year and showing no ill effects. I suppose some guys are just born with rubber arms and, hopefully, that is the case with Ireland. Otherwise he just may challenge my prediction that Livan Hernandez would be the first pitcher to have his arm actually explode while on the mound…
Career numbers:
27-23 W-L, 68 GS, 457.2 IP, 410 H, 153 ER, 131 BB, 390 K, 3.01 ERA
ETA: Gets a real look during Spring 2002.
TONY McKNIGHT (AA, T: R, B: R, DOB: 6/29/77)
Well, thank goodness this guy decided to show up. McKnight was the Astros’ first pick in the 1995 draft, a highly touted HS phenom from Arkansas with a big body (6’5″, 205) and a big fastball (94 MPH). Here is what he had done prior to this season (all in A-ball):
18-24 W-L, 56 GS, 303 IP, 349 H, 160 ER, 114 BB, 219 K, 4.75 ERA
Yikes! I’m sure the guy’s friends and family still loved him, but that first round money the Astros paid him sure seemed like it had been wasted. Many at draft time had speculated that Tony would suffer the same kind of fate that befalls many HS pitchers who throw a ton of innings at a young age. The Astros took him anyway. Heading into this season the naysayers had been correct. Persistent shoulder problems and other arm-related nagging injuries had kept McKnight from having a full season without being put on the DL until 1998. Even then, the results were less than spectacular.
Welcome to 1999, Tony McKnight. The big fastball has returned with consistency, the big breaking curve actually breaks again, the control and mechanics are sound and PRESTO(tm), McKnight is one of the top pitchers in the AA Texas League. Have a look at these drastically different numbers than had been posted previously:
4-4 W-L, 12 GS, 81.2 IP, 72 H, 22 ER, 22 BB, 64 K, 2.42 ERA
Hello! A guy who had previously allowed nearly 14 baserunners per 9 IP and not quite 2K/1BB is now allowing only a little more than 10 baserunners per 9 IP and has nearly a 3K/1BB ratio. That is the kind of improvement approaching night v. day.
For McKnight to go from a potential first round bust who can barely survive the Florida State League and the injury bug to become one of the best pitchers in the Texas League is perhaps the single best success story in the minor leagues for the Astros this year. If Tony keeps this up, he may be the next pitcher in line behind Miller to get a crack at the Astro rotation.
ETA: depending on who gets re-signed for next season, McKnight may wear and Astro uni in mid-2000. More likely he gets his shot in Spring 2001.
AUTHOR’S NOTE: Here is where the break in the top prospects becomes pronounced. There are some guys below whose names you may know. But, in my estimation, their talent levels, projected performance levels or actual performance keeps them from entering the elite on this list. Therefore the numerical ranking (5-10) becomes much less pronounced. In effect, Santana is not all that much greater than Sikorski. Got it?
JOHAN SANTANA (mid-A, T: L, B: L, DOB: 3/13/79)
Signed in July of 1995 from Tovar, Venezuela. Santana has great potential should he put on some strength and physical maturity. Another not-so-big-guy at 6′, Santana weighs only 155 pounds, he already displays the stuff to put up some big strikeout numbers… a fastball that hits 90-91 and a sharp curve. Of course we all know that any lefthander who can strike people out (heck, even get the ball over the plate) has a career waiting for him in MLB. But, as stated, should Santana gain some strength and a bit more pop on the heater, he stands a chance to move up this list next year.
Season stats:
4-4 W-L, 12 GS, 72.1 IP, 72 H, 32 ER, 21 BB, 76 K, 3.98 ERA
I’m liking that 3.6K/1BB ratio.
Career stats (98-99):
11-10 W-L, 28 GS, 165.2 IP, 167 H, 81 ER, 45 BB, 170 K, 4.40 ERA
You’re saying, what the heck is Michael N thinking now? A guy with a barely .500 record who gives up a hit per inning and sports a 4.40 ERA ain’t worth much. But what I see is a guy who already shows good control and strikeout numbers with room to mature. For reference, Scott Elarton posted these numbers his first full year in mid-A ball:
13-7 W-L, 26 GS, 149.2 IP, 149 H, 74 ER, 71 BB, 112 K, 4.45 ERA
Now, I’m certainly not saying Santana is gonna be the next Scott Elarton. That is not likely to be the case. But what the numbers should show you is that Santana is pretty impressive, in terms of control, and if he gets to the point where he develops a bit more movement and speed on his pitches, he’s got a realistic chance of movin’ on up.
I can hear the strains of “Oye Como Va” at the E-FUS now…
ETA: WAG… 2003.
JERIOME ROBERTSON (AA, T: L, B: L, DOB: 3/30/77)
Taken in the 24th round of the same draft as McKnight (’95), Robertson has made a slow and methodical climb up the Astro minor league chain and has improved every step of the way.
1997 (QC) 11-8 W-L, 25 GS, 146 IP, 151 H, 66 ER, 56 BB, 135 K, 4.07 ERA
1998 (KS) 10-10 W-L, 28 GS, 175 IP, 185 H, 72 ER, 53 BB, 131 K, 3.70 ERA
Small improvement numerically, but meaningful as he went up a level. Now the 1999 figures, so far:
1999 (JK) 6-4 W-L, 13 GS, 87 IP, 85 H, 23 BB, 70 K, 2.79 ERA
Robertson is a very good example of what experience and maturity can do for a pitcher. He does not possess great physical tools or a live arm. What he does is use the skills he does possess to his advantage and the hitters’ disadvantage. He spots his fastball (around 88 MPH), curve and change up and down, in and out like most finesse lefties and there was some concern on my part that after an OK season in Kissimmee last year that AA might eat him up.
Well, after a fine stint in the Arizona Fall League against some of the most talented players in all of the minors, Robertson had to have gained the confidence needed to make the adjustment from A to AA ball and so far, so good.
Robertson isn’t likely to be a top of the rotation starter, but he certainly could shape up to be a quality #4 or #5 guy. Think John Halama and you are in the ballpark.
ETA: perhaps late 2000 or 2001
MIKE NANNINI (Mid-A, T: R, B: R, DOB: 8/9/80)
The baby of the list, with small-man’s disease to boot. The 5′ 11″ (yeah, right… and Wagner is 5′ 11″, too) 170 pound Nannini is a fiery guy who has the heater to match at regular speeds of 94-95.
What he seems to lack, however, is the refinement so often missing from HS pitchers who were able to just blow away their competition at an early age. But if he is able to develop and control off-speed stuff, look out. Off-speed pitches that compliment big gas like Nannini’s can make a pitcher dominating….right Gas Can?
Nannini was taken as a supplemental first round pick last year from a Nevada HS. He then set out to destroy the Rookie League:
1-1 W-L, 6 GS, 36.1 IP, 23 H, 6 ER, 13 BB, 39 K, 1.49 ERA
Unfortunately the kids get a bit bigger in Mid-A ball:
3-8 W-L, 12 GS, 73 IP, 85 H, 31 ER, 24 BB, 56 K, 3.82 ERA
The good news is that Nannini isn’t exactly getting killed. If memory serves, Nannini has only given up 2 HRs in the 73 innings and only around 15 XBH out of the 85. That tells me he is getting dinked a lot, which hopefully will be solved when his off-speed pitches come around.
Young guns with big caliber bullets stick around awhile, so get used to his name.
ETA: Perhaps 2003
DEREK ROOT (AA, T: L, B: L, DOB: 5/26/75)
Technically I am OK because Root is currently starting in Jackson, but this guy is likely to pitch out of the pen in Houston, perhaps as soon as next year.
Root is a former first baseman who didn’t hit didn’t hit a single HR in 300 at-bats in the minors. He made a wise decision when he dropped his first baseman’s claw and grabbed the rosin bag. Since then, he made a meteoric climb in 1998 starting in Kissimmee and finishing the season in New Orleans compiling 114 strikeouts and 40 walks in 130.2 IP between the rotation and bullpen. It was enough of a performance that Houston put Root on the 40-man roster to protect him from greedy teams seeking left-handed arms (can’t think which teams might need such a thing).
A sharp curve, slider and average fastball (88-90) are used by the 6′ 5″ Root to manhandle lefthanders, and if he breaks through to MLB it will likely be as a specialist out of the pen to sit down the likes of Barry Bonds.
Unfortunately, Bonds and even the kids at AA are salivating at the notion of facing Root these days because he’s just not getting it done at Jackson:
2-9 W-L, 12 GS, 70 IP, 75 H, 39 ER, 38 BB, 60 K, 5.01 ERA
There may be a little doubt creeping in, but methinks Root should be OK. If he doesn’t rebound quickly, though, you may see him as potential trade bait. He is a lefty after all and somebody would certainly want him….
ETA: mid-2000
BRIAN SIKORSKI (AAA, T: R, B: R, DOB: 7/27/74)
OK, this one upsets me. I just like this guy perhaps too much for his bulldog attitude and physical tools. He throws an average fastball, sinker, slider and change as well as often pinch-running and hitting pretty well for a pitcher. But, dammit, Sikorski is just not getting it done this year at New Orleans. In fact, he’s pretty much getting his brains beaten in. Somebody get a gris-gris bag or two down in the Quarter and put ’em in his locker. He needs some good mojo to get back on track…
I still think this guy can be a serviceable starter in MLB. Perhaps I am wrong and he’ll end up a swing-man, but why send a man to Purgatory when Nirvana is still attainable? My guess is that he is able to turn it around and gets a look-see next Spring. It’ll certainly be tough to break the Astro rotation, but if Sikorski is able to rebound in the second half of ’99 and throws well in Spring, someone may have a use for him in trade.
Picture Brian as the pitching equivalent of Russ Johnson in my estimation….
ETA: 2000, or may fade to obscurity.
In closing of this pitching issue of MO, I want to say a few words about last year’s No. 1 pick, Brad Lidge. There is little question that Lidge has the size (6′ 5″) and pitches (96 MPH fastball and big curve) to make the top 5 of this list. However, until he can stay healthy and get some innings under his belt, it seems a bit ridiculous to review a man who has great talent but fewer than 20 innings of minor league experience.