By Michael N
Editor’s note – This article originally appeared on AstrosConnection.com on May 26, 1999.
Sorry all…I know this is more than a little late, but future columns such as a draft preview/recap, reports on the start of short-season and rookie ball as well as Minor Opinions’ semi-weekly awards for pitcher/player at each level will be a bit more timely. Now, to the business at hand! Hardcore Astro fans have already seen rankings of prospects in the minor leagues from the various national media. Minor Opinions is now proud to belatedly reveal its ranking of the Top 10 position players in the Astro system at or above the A-ball level (Pitchers to come next week).
First of all, for those of you who missed the prospect reports last year, you may be interested in why a player like Tyler Turnquist (currently smacking the ball all over the field at Michigan) is not in the rankings. This is simply due to my belief in the principal of age relative to competitive level. Turnquist’s date of birth is 11/10/75, which makes him older than 7 of the everyday players that made the Top 10 rankings, all of whom are currently playing at higher classifications. Now, in no way is this to mean that a player like Turnquist will not make it in professional baseball. Chris Truby (#5 in rankings) surprised the heck out of everyone who follows minor league baseball, and many in the Astro organization, by progressing from a mediocre, over-age A-ball third sacker who was looking at getting released to a guy who blasted 31 home runs between A, AA and AAA in 1998. Weird stuff happens in baseball, but I think it safer to assume that a guy in mid-A ball at age 23 is not on a fast track to The Show.
Secondly, my own preference in rankings is for players who have actually produced or have projectible numbers, as opposed to guys who have “tools”. For example, Richard Hidalgo never hit more than 14 HRs in a minor league season. Why did anyone think that he would be a 20+ HR power hitter in the majors? Because he was always one of the youngest players at every level of in the minors he played and he routinely was near the top of his league in doubles. On the other side is Brad Lidge. The young pitcher was Houston’s first pick in the 1998 draft out of Notre Dame, but he has subsequently thrown all of 11 innings as an Astro farmhand and all were in 1998. Sure he has talent, but we have been able to see very little of it so he is not included in next week’s rankings.
Without further ado (which means I’ll be shutting up and getting to what you really want to read soon), Minor Opinions fearlessly names the top 10 players in the Houston Astro minor league system:
Player Reviews:
1. Lance Berkman (AAA, OF, B: S, T: R, DOB: 2/10/76)
OK, most of you have heard this again and again from me, but Berkman is the best hitting prospect the Astro organization has produced since Craig Biggio. After setting all kind of NCAA records while at Rice University, Berkman was chosen by the Astros in the first round of the 1997 draft. Many scouts were worried about his ability to translate the power he generated in college using the aluminum bat to the wood used by pros. Thank goodness for some people’s stupidity.
In Berkman’s short stay in A-ball, he led the team in home runs despite getting less than 200 at bats, hit just shy of .300 and showed excellent strike zone control (37 walks/38 strikeouts). Much was expected of Berkman in his jump to the AA ranks and he did little to disappoint. Despite suffering an ankle injury at AA Jackson that limited his production from the right side of the plate, Berkman was called up to AAA New Orleans in time for the playoffs where he eventually won honors as the MVP of the inaugural AAA World Series. All this might lead some to think the guy might be able to play this here game. Here’s the proof (Berkman’s combined numbers – AA and AAA in 1998):
139 GP, 484 AB, 96 R, 146 H, 38 2B, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 97 BB, 98 K, .302/.418/.566
Folks, this guy can flat mash. He has excellent bat speed, is not overwhelmed by good off-speed stuff and understands the strike zone, everything an organization dreams of in a power hitter. Where Berkman can use a little work is in his transition from a college first baseman to a pro outfielder. He doesn’t have the arm of a Richard Hidalgo, nor is he a speed merchant, so Lance is limited to duty in left field. He moves well to his left (a good sign, since that is where the gap is) and shows a fairly good eye for where the ball is going. But let’s not kid ourselves. Berkman is going to be an average defensive outfielder, at best.
The biggest issue affecting Berkman’s future is the existence of several quality outfielders already in Houston. But if Berkman returns to his 1998 form after his injury (all indications so far indicate that he will) and is able to quash any concerns about his defense…he will force Gerry Hunsicker to make a decision much like he faced with Mitch Meluskey this past off-season.
Estimated time of arrival: September 1999, sooner if Bell is traded at July deadline or if injury occurs in Houston.
Current stats (as of 5/23/99): .333/.353/.582 in 14 games. The man is a hitting machine, but curiously not walking much so far.
2. Daryle Ward (AAA, 1B, B: L, T: L, DOB: 6/27/75)
This was the man MLB had in mind when they mistakenly decided to dream up the designated hitter. Ward is all hit (and a very good hitter he is), his defense…well, let’s just say his Mama is proud. Only his Mama.
Last year, in an effort to try and get his bat to the Astrodome a bit quicker, the organization tried to make Ward an outfielder. To this point, Dmitri Young (pre and post-photographic negative look phases) has had more success than Ward in making the transition. Translation: Ward was pretty awful. He has no speed, did not read the ball well off the bat and generally looked lost in left field. So, back to first base, where he is blocked by a guy in Houston who may be bound for the Hall of Fame. Poor Daryle.
I don’t intend for this to be strictly a slam on the guy because there is little question that the guy can be a big-time power threat in the majors some day. He has tape measure power to all fields, is willing to go the other way with pitches on the outside corner and does not strike out excessively. 1999 AAA numbers:
116 GP, 463 AB, 78 R, 141 H, 31 2B, 1 3B, 23 HR, 96 RBI, 41 BB, 78 K, .305/.361/.525
There has been much speculation about Ward becoming trade bait in the future for additional pitching. I have come to believe that unless something spectacular comes along in trade, it would be in the Astros best interest to keep this guy around to replace Jack Howell in 2000. First base is not a defensive position that will cripple a team if the guy is mediocre at best and if Ward can improve his walk totals a bit…I can see him filling a bench role in Houston in 2000. And the only thing stopping him from this may be a bit of an attitude problem.
Well, I might be upset a bit, too, if I was blocked by Jeff Bagwell.
ETA: September 1999, barring injury in Houston.
Current stats: .339/.401/.673 in 42 games. Leads PCL in HRs with 15.
3. Julio Lugo (AA, SS, B: R, T: R, DOB: 11/16/75)
This is the guy to watch in the Astro system. It is the belief of this writer that SS is the weakest link on the Astro roster and if Hunsicker does not make a deal to get an everyday SS, Lugo is most likely the player that will emerge from within the organization.
Lugo was caught in a numbers game behind Jhonny Perez and Carlos Guillen in 1998, and because of this was sent back to A-ball in Kissimmee where he continued to show that he has a very good bat for a middle infielder and speed to burn. He was among the Florida State League leaders last year with 14 triples and 51 stolen bases and he hit .303. He has excellent gap power, which should translate to double-digit homers as he gets stronger (6′ 1″, 165 lbs.). This is the good news.
The bad news is his glove. Lugo has very good range and usually puts himself in position to make the play with OK footwork. Unfortunately, once the ball arrives, Lugo does not seem to have the softest hands and even when he is able to field the ball, his plus arm is erratic. Thankfully, this is rather typical of a young shortstop. Perhaps Gerry the Hun should pull out his speech he gave Meluskey about defense last year and repeat it to Lugo. In any event, Lugo has the kind of talent that would make him a real pain in the ass #2 or #8 hitter in the Astro offense. He’s just got to prove to the Astro brass that he can handle the glove requirements.
If Lugo he can stay healthy, improve his defense and learn to take a walk to utilize his speed…we may have a SS in Houston by the middle of 2000.
ETA: July 2000.
Current stats: .292/.347/.451 in 32 games. Has 6 SB and 4 HR so far in Jackson, but his defense has not improved much so far.
4. Carlos Hernandez (AAA, SS/2B, B: R, T: R, DOB: 12/12/75)
The guy obviously has confidence in himself as he has the Major League Baseball logo tattooed on his upper arm. Let’s hope, for his sake, that he is able to meet his expectations.
Currently, Hernandez is trying to convert from a 2B to SS at AAA New Orleans. While I foresee him having little difficulty with the defensive transition, it is Carlos’ bat that needs refinement. Hernandez has always been a well above average defensive player with great range, excellent instincts and a plus throwing arm. Where he is deficient is in getting on base with frequency so he can better utilize his great speed. In the years 1997-98, Hernandez walked a grand total of 54 times in 857 official at bats. That is just not gonna get it done, Carlos.
I do not see Carlos as a potential star in major league baseball, but I do think that he can have a successful career as a quality utility infielder with the potential to be a great pinch runner who will steal bases. If, however, he can become a hitter who understands the strikezone, he will have value as a stereotypical #2 hitter and above average defensive middle infielder.
ETA: May get his chance in Spring 2000, if not, he may fall off the map or be trade fodder.
Current stats: .261/.344/.303 in 37 games. Has 13 SBs to lead the Zephyrs, but still needs to learn to take a walk once in a while.
5. Chris Truby (AA, 3B, B: R, T: R, DOB: 12/9/73)
Thank goodness for late bloomers. Chris Truby, in the 1993-97 seasons as an Astros farmhand totaled 1,850 ABs and 36 HRs. Nothing to be excited about and likely the ticket to being released. In 1998, Truby exploded for 31 HRs in 537 ABs, earning the attention of everyone who follows minor league baseball and promotions from A to AA to AAA. That’s quite a turnaround for a guy who was known only for his D and decent wheels.
Truby was sent to the Arizona Fall League after the breakout 1998 season and, upon arrival, promptly dinged up his knee. The effects of this injury have lingered into the 1999 season and Truby is off to a fairly slow start with the stick, but lately is showing signs of coming around. There are no questions, however, about Truby’s ability with the glove. He is an acrobat at the hot corner showing excellent range and a very good arm. Like most 3B blessed with these attributes, Truby will occasionally try to make the impossible play that leads to a mistake. But I’d much rather have the guy who tries to do too much on defense than a guy who cannot make the routine play. Truby can make the routine play and much more.
If Truby can even come close to repeating his offensive performance of 1998 during this season, he would have to be vaulted into the top 3 of this prospect list and would likely be given a good look during Spring Training 2000.
ETA: 1998 version takes Ken Caminiti’s job in mid-2000 (unfortunately, grass won’t save Ken’s knees). Pre-1998 version fades to obscurity.
Current stats: .237/.280/.371 in 28 games. In last 5 games is hitting .400/.429/.800/2 SBs. Guess the knee is feeling better.
6. Carlos Villalobos (AAA 3B, B: R, T: R, DOB: 4/5/74)
Chris Truby insurance and the guy likely to drive Russ Johnson out of the Astro system. Villalobos came to Houston in the Brad Ausmus trade after a very fine season in the AA Southern League where he was voted the best defensive 3B in the league (and was a teammate of Glen Barker). His numbers:
128 G, 497 AB, 96 R, 159 H, 34 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 55 BB, 85 K, .320/.388/.505
Looks pretty good, eh? Well, looks can be deceiving and in this case certainly are. The Jacksonville ballpark is a bandbox and contributed significantly to the stats of not only Villalobos, but also the entire Jacksonville offensive machine of 1998. All reports also indicate that despite his defensive award, Carlos is no more than an adequate defensive player. Pointing these facts out is not done to label Villalobos a dud…far from it. They are provided to show that looking at raw numbers and making the conclusion “A” is a better player than “B” without putting the numbers into context is foolish.
Villalobos has more power and speed than Russ Johnson, but has less power and is not as good of a defensive player as Truby. Unfortunately, I know of no way to combine these talents to form the next great Astro 3B. But perhaps Villalobos will prove to be an adequate future replacement or backup for Caminiti should Truby not fulfill the promise of last year.
ETA: Battle with a healthy Truby for roster spot sometime in 2000.
Current stats: .340/.393/.473 in 41 games. Power numbers predictably down, but is hitting lines drives all over the Shrine on Airline.
7. Jamie Saylor (AAA, INF/OF, B: L, T: R, DOB: 9/11/74)
Drafted in the 6th round of the 1993 draft from North Garland HS, Saylor emerged as a player to watch last year in AA Jackson. In a junior version of the Truby turnaround, Saylor went from a versatile defensive player not known for having a good stick to a pretty darned potent middle infielder. While the strikeout/walk numbers are not encouraging, Saylor’s numbers from 1998 were:
126 G, 473 AB, 83 R, 139 H, 21 2B, 7 3B, 18 HR, 69 RBI, 39 BB, 91 K, .294/.348/.482, 15 SB
Saylor is the kind of guy you love to have on your team. He can do a little bit of everything, plays just about anywhere on the field and has developed into a pretty good hitter. Should he stay healthy, and develop better control of the strikezone, he could develop into a quality reserve player in the mold of a Billy Spiers in near future.
ETA: Perhaps sometime in 2000 based on how the Astro middle infield shakes out.
Current stats: .340/.423/.500 in 36 games. Has played 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and the OF for the Z’s this year.
8. Mike Rose (A, C, B: S, T: R, DOB: 8/25/76)
Nagging little injuries had held back Rose from fulfilling the promise he held as a 5th round pick in 1995, but the switch-hitting catcher gave us a glimpse last year of his potential by hitting .303/.417/.446 with 10 SBs at Quad City.
Rose has very good quickness behind the plate, but is a little slow with his release on stolen base attempts. Couple the latter with a very young pitching staff last year at Quad City and you’ll find the reason behind his 28% caught stealing rate last year. Rose is a smart kid and a hard worker, so I do not expect him to continue to be sub-par behind the plate. He will not likely be a star defensive catcher, but he should be at least average.
His potential with the bat, though, is what makes him worth watching. Catchers with good power and speed are very valuable commodities. Rose has those qualities and the hope here is that he makes the most of them.
ETA: 2002
Current stats: .259/.339/.420 in 33 games.
9. Keith Ginter (A, 2B, B: R, T: R, DOB: 5/5/76)
10th round pick out of Texas Tech in last year’s draft continues to show that he may have been the steal of the draft for Houston. Ginter won the MVP award for the short-season Auburn Doubledays last year after hitting .315/.461/.515. Despite being a two-time All-American at Tech, the scouts questioned his abilities with the wood bat. Wrong again, gentlemen.
Ginter is no Gold Glove winner in the making, but his defense is adequate for the job. He has good speed and range, is sure handed and a safe bet to make all the routine plays.
If Ginter is to make the national lists as someone to watch, he is gonna have to progress quickly and not repeat any levels as he is already 23 years old. But if he is a hit with the AA Round Rock Express next season, look for his name to be bandied about as a potential successor to Biggio.
ETA: 2001
Current stats: .269/.397/.454 in 34 games. Leads team in OBP, second in SLG and HRs.
10. David Matranga (A, SS, B: R, T: R, DOB: 1/8/77)
This former Team USA member was chosen in the sixth round of last year’s draft out of Pepperdine. Very quick and steady defensive SS who surprised a bit with his bat last season. Unfortunately, his fast start to last season (.306/.423/.493 with 16 SBs in 40 games) was stopped by injury.
Matranga is not likely to be moved as fast as Ginter, as he is a year younger, so I expect him to spend at least parts of 2 seasons in A or AA ball. But if he is able to continue controlling the strikezone well (53 walks/71 strikeouts), those concerned about his bat will likely be quieted.
ETA: 2002
Current stats: .224/.373/.299. Matranga is getting on base, but not hitting with any authority.
Organizational review:
The Astro system is top heavy with players who are ready to hit major league pitching right now, but no real potential superstars behind them in the lower levels. Houston has many intriguing middle infielders, catchers, two decent 3B prospects and one absolute STUD at each of 1B and LF coming up. But behind Berkman, there are no OFs of quality…which disturbs me greatly.
It is the hope of Minor Opinions that:
1) The Astros continue to select quality college players in the middle rounds (5-15) of the draft.
2) The surplus of major league OFs on the major league roster are used to restore the depth of the minor league system that was damaged in the trades of the last couple of years.
3) The Venezuelan system continues to develop quality young players like Kevys Garcia (there’s a name for the 2004 season!).
Gerry Hunsicker has wisely used the depth of the system to acquire some incredible talent at the major league level. But it’s time to restock the farm with the quality of player necessary to make the July deadline trades or to eventually replace the current stars in Houston. However, to make another Randy Johnson or Moises Alou-type deal this year would virtually cripple the minor league system for at least two years and that is not something organizations with medium sized budgets can afford to do if they hope to compete year-in and year-out.
All dissent or praise for this article or the author is welcome at the TalkZone. But remember to keep it moderately civil as the Overlord is watching. Thanks to all for reading and look for the pitching report next week.