Attendance is down. Everyone knows that to be true, as well as the reasons for it.  When the economy, specifically the fear (thanks, media) of the future of the economy, joins a tag team with a piss-poor baseball product, attendance is going to get suplexed from the top rope.  I’ve seen the numbers, and watched games on television, so of course I know attendance is down, but I hadn’t really felt it before Sunday.  Despite the reported attendance (tickets sold) of 30,023, (nearly 11,000 less than capacity), the actual AIS count felt like much, much less.  There were no lines to speak of at any of the concession stands or restrooms.  The ushers weren’t preventing people from coming down to better seats.  Even reasonably sure that everyone in attendance got at least 20 seconds of camera time on the Kiss Cam.

One of the problems with writing a column for this site is that by the time any coherent thoughts get put together, it’s been coveredad nauseum in the Talk Zone.   Between hoping for another appearance of Jeffster and watching playoff basketball, I’ve started and stopped columns about Lance Berkman’s “career-ending” slump, the apparently chronic disconnect between Cecil Cooper’s mouth and his experience, the surprisingly good starting pitching, the shaky start by the bullpen, Hunter Pence’s lack-o-smarts, and a bunch of other issues that the Zone Dwellers have already turned into a particularly tender breathing-challenged equine.  It may be why NO ONE ELSE is currently writing a column*, but I digress.

What I keep coming back to is 6-12.  The Astros started with 6 wins and 12 losses.  Again.  Meet the new boss.  Considering, the other craziness that Cooper spouts, it’s possible that this is the fast start that he was clamoring for at the end of spring training.  Last year, the team proceeded to win their next 6 games from that point to get to 12-12.  So far this year, Houston is 3-1 after the start, so .500 is still in their sights. Yippie.  The problem with 9-13, beyond being a horrible record, and being 6.5 games out after one month of play, is that the losses were almost exclusively within the Central Division.  Throw out the series win against the Dodgers, and the Astros are 7-12, exclusively against their division opponents.  They end April where they’ve spent all but nine days so far this season…in last place in the Central Division.

It’s a toss up as to whether the home series against Cincinnati or the home series against Milwaukee is the most disappointing so far.  Both are teams the Astros have to beat up on, especially at home.  The Astros went 2-5 against those two during a 10-game homestand, combining ineffective offense with a truckload of shoddy bullpen work, and for good measure, some strange managerial decisions.  Reverse those results, and the Astros are at 12-10 and in second place in the division.

April 30th isn’t really a time to panic, but when you look at the schedule, at least at the beginning of the season, April was supposed to be one of the “easier” months.  May is going to find the Astros on the road 17 times, versus only 11 at home.  The good side of the May sched is the teams that Houston is set to play are a combined 88-102 (.463) so far this season.  The bad news is the Astros are playing at a .429 clip.  If there’s a time to become part of the discussion, now would be it.  A series win against the Chop-tarts and taking two from the Nationls would be an excellent place to start.

Slumpy McSlumperstein
To start winning on a regular basis, your local nine are going to need Lance Berkman to get out of his slump, quicker than you can say “Twinkie”.  Always eager to help, I’ve been scratching my head to come up with a workable solution for the Big Puma.  I purchased some Head & Shoulders, and then decided just to check the interwebs.  After searching several self help sites, like Innercompass.com, RandomDreamer.com, and prettypinkponyofmotivationforgirls.com, here is a random sampling of the suggestions for Fat Elvis to right his personal ship.

• Have some coffee. Or Venom Energy Drink.  Venom Energy Drink is the Official Energy Drink of Lance Berkman. Seriously.
• Make a list. Groceries, or Christmas?  No sight was particuraly specific or even explained why this would help, but all of them said to make a list.  Tailored to Berkman, I would suggest, Lance makes a list of his favorite people to see barreling towards first base, and maybe a favorite ice breaker for each.
• Take action! Action must be taken, regardless, apparently, of what that action is.  Is ignoring Cecil Cooper an action?  Go with that.
• Exercise. Probably.  Maybe.  Or cut down on the Pop-Tarts.  Same/same.
• Shower and groom yourself. Seriously.  If you’re hitting .162, you better not be all foul and covered in body hair.  Manscaping = hitting!
• Squash negative thoughts; replace them with positive ones. Push out the jive, bring in the love.
• Ask yourself: what’s bugging me most in my home? Not sure what your house has to do with a hitting slump, but by all means, if it’s anything, burn that sucker down.  And get your family out.  Not necessarily in that order.
• Get out of the house and do something. This makes sense.  Especially if you’re planning on burning your house down.  Remember, you can always buy another house.  You only have one baseball career.
• Play some lively music. Perhaps a spicy polka, or something from Raffi.  Do you like Lady GaGa?
• Talk about it. With everyone you meet? Check.  Whether they’re interested or not? Check.   Whether they speak English or not? Check.
• Stop doing something! This seem counter intuitive after you’re taking action and committing arson, but go with it.
• Take a nap. Check.  And do the stop doing something before you nap.  Especially the fire thing.  Totally serious about this one.
• Start small, really small. Cooper’s already on board with this.  It’s why you only got one at-bat in the final game in Cincinnati.  Next game, maybe two at-bats.  Big stuff.

Before We Leave

On the surface, I have no desire to see the second Transformers movie, to be released later this summer.

On the other hand…

*Any of you who would like to write a column, please contact me at [email protected].  Please.

For those of you who were expecting this on the actual off day this week, I can only assume that you’re numb due to the disappointment that the Astros have been so far, and this is just one more step towards the edge of the cliff.

Your stagnant stars have opened the season 1 and 6, have been shut out twice and have, when they’ve actually shown up, appeared to be generally clueless on the mound, and especially, painfully, at the plate.  Curiously, courtesy of the office of Katy Feeney, the Astros have been given a rare mid-series break to hold closed door meetings, drink Yuengling and hold an Uno tournament.  They could also stand to take a little mini-assessment of what has happened and where they’re headed.

The starting pitching disappointments have been limited to (kind of suprisingly, but not really) Roy Oswalt and (not at all surprising provided you’re familiar with the term “career-year”) Brian Moehler.  Probably should note that Moehler has a strained MCL, or a sprained DSL…something.  Either way, despite positive trends (37.80 to 27.00 in just 5 days), he has not been good, almost like a guy who figured to barely make a roster, much less a rotation, about a year ago.  Combined with Oswalt’s continued struggles with anything pitching related prior to June, the starting pitching has been about what you’d have guessed.  Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz?  Both still have use of their money makers, so to speak, which might rank as a pleasant surprise when you compare it to the mess the rest of this staff is. 

The bullpen is hardly worth mentioning.  Doug Brocail has Houston’s only win so far this season, and sadly, he is on the DL for the 765th time in his career.  Jose Valverde, Chris Sampon and Tim Byrdak have been good.  The rest of the bullpen has been a decided “meh”.  In the interest of being fair, however, the Astros have had a lead after the 6th inning exactly one time so far this season, so the lack of urgency they’ve shown is understandable.  The lack of execution, however, is not, as the bullpen blew that one lead and is walking around with a pedestrian 5.19 ERA. Pedestrian because there’s a lot of foot traffic when they pitch…get it?!? I kill me.

That brings us to the actual problem so far in 2009…the offense.  By design or just the way life works out, the 2009 version of this team, not unlike the 2008 version was going to win with hitting.  Big, bold, timely, veteran hitting.  While it’s early, and ships can be righted, and dogs can have sun shine on their asses and (insert your favorite cliche here), compared to their National League bretheren, the Astros are dead last in on-base percentage, third from last in slugging percentage and fourth from the bottom in batting average. If you take out Jeff Keppinger, the Astros are dead last in all three categories.  Anyone with internet access can look up and down the line-up and see the players who are hitting (Keppinger) and the players who aren’t hitting (everyone else), and frankly it’s not terribly interesting to point out that Berkman is hitting .167 or that Carlos Lee is hitting .192.  What is interesting the editiorial staff here at “Off Day” are the reasons why, for the second year in a row, this team has started off the season frigid at the plate.  It’s fully possible that you have 15 players going through hitting slumps at the same time, but I think the more likely answer is…Cecil Cooper.

A lot of time the effect a manager has on a baseball team, especially a veteran team, is overblown.  To a very large extent, the players are responsible for production on the field.  The ways a manager can affect a game can (and usually should) be subtle.  It’s not about batting your pitcher 9th, or redecorating a bat rack when something goes wrong.  A competent manager’s job is to put their players in the best position to succeed.  Having said all that, nothing in the last 18 months has lead any objective observer to believe that Cecil Cooper is competent.    Example A is his blatant inability to put together a batting order.

The easiest way to “fix” the offense would be to set an order (or 2) and cease the juggling after 4-5 games.  For starters get Kaz Matsui out of the lead-off spot.  Not only is he both visually uncomfortable in the role, his skill set isn’t exactly geared towards leading off.  Know how you can tell?  When the native Japanese speaker bothers to learn the phrase, “I’m not comfortable leading off” in english. Matsui does however have the skill set to bat second, and has done so with reasonable success in his career.  Including last season.  For the Astros.  Instead, the Astros have had Pudge Rodriguez, Jeff Keppinger, Miguel Tejada and Hunter Pence hitting pre-Berkman.  Keppinger is a good option.  The others, not so much.  The other problem with Matsui batting lead-off is his attendance.  From anal-fissures to inverted eye-lids, if there’s a way for Kaz Matsui to get injured, he’s going to find it.  If you can’t count on a player to play more than 100 games, why would you put him in such a vital place in the order?  Me neither.

With the personnel available Berkman, Lee, Tejada is the right mix for 3-4-5.  You could make an argument that Lee should be batting 3rd, but why pick that particular nit?  I know there’s no stat to support this (and by no stat, I mean none that I care to look for) but Lee has a better ball/strike approach than Berkman does.  On the other hand, Berkman typically had better results than Lee.  It’s like arguing about who’s hotter when your choices are “sweaty, dirty jungle” Kate and “high heels and skirt, losing Aaron in the grocery store” Kate.  Both have their pros and cons.

After Matusi, the biggest problem with the current batting order is one Hunter Pence.  It’s hard to tell if Pence’s complete lack of baseball smarts at the plate is the bigger problem or if it’s Cooper’s infatuation with him, but it’s one of those.  Put as plainly as I can manage, Hunter Pence should, barring either catastrophic injury to the rest of the line-up or an occurance of Shakabuku, not bat higher than 6th.  His approach is completely wrong for the top of the line-up.  His complete inability to recognize and/or make more than accidental contact with a breaking ball should rule him out of the middle of the order. Batting seventh should maximize the value and minimize the damage to this year’s Astros.  Accentuate the positive, I always say!

Against right-hander pitchers, Bourn, Matsui, Berkman, Lee, Tejada, Blum, Pence, Rodriguez is a nice solid line-up.  Mix it up against southpaws by running out Bourn, Keppinger, Berkman, Lee, Tejada, Pence, Rodriguez, Matsui.  And then let them play. Try it for a couple of weeks.  See how it feels.

The question is rapidly elevating to whether or not Cooper is incompetent or just stupid.  I don’t think he’s stupid, but I think he’s dangerously close to some serious scrutiny.  Fixing the batting order would be a great place for the Astros’ manager to answer some of those questions.

The only person who might be happy about Brian Moehler’s performance in the rubber game of the series is Brandon Backe, who might need some combination of injury and miracle to pitch for Houston this year. If you missed it, Brian Moehler gave up seven earned runs in just a hair less than two innings, opening the season with a robust 37.80 earned-run average. He wasn’t necessarily rocked around the park, giving up single, single, double, walk, single, single, single in the first, and single, HBP, single before getting an early shower. Before you could make it down to the good seats with a Star Dog, the good guys were down 8 to nothing. Combined with an anemic performance in the opener, Houston opens 1-2, and the Talkzone notwithstanding, isn’t exactly inspiring sonnets.

But, it’s vitally important that no one overreacts to the results of the first series of the season, even if it’s against the Cubs. Okay, nothing about baseball is actually vital or important, and you fans can overreact all you want (unless you’re talking to Drayton, please), but I’m talking specifically about Cecil Cooper and the Astros. Regardless of the results against the Cubs, nothing has changed from a week ago. Moehler, Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz are still question marks in the rotation. Wandy Rodriquez is still a good to great pitcher at home. Lance Berkman still gets on base a lot. Hunter Pence still has no clue at the plate, although when he makes contact, it can go a long way fast. The good news is that no one was injured, not even Kaz Matsui or Mike Hampton (He could have fallen down the steps. And you wouldn’t have been surprised.) If you were paying attention, you might have noticed the Astros were very capable of winning the series.

How do they get better? First, picking a real lineup would be a good first step. Bourn, Matsui, Berkman, Lee, Tejada, Pence, Blum/Keppinger, Rodriguez, pitcher makes a hell of a lot of baseball sense. Someone might want to stick with that for a couple of weeks. Unless the Astros are counting on 5 home runs a night. And they might be. They probably should note that they still lost. Secondly, Russ Ortiz is a career starter, and isn’t going to be great coming out of the bullpen. He shouldn’t be put in situations like cleaning up Moehler’s mess, if Cooper is terribly worried about the results. It’s also understandable that Russ Ortiz is coming out of the bullpen for the first two weeks, but Roy Oswalt’s personal comfort isn’t a great reason for that, especially at the beginning of the season. Third,

The results aren’t want anyone wanted, but they could have been a hell of a lot worse. So on to Saint Louise, fried ravioli, and the battlin’ Birds. There’ll be a lot for Cooper to overreact about there as well. Like getting outmanaged by Billy Jean King.

Milo Way? – Wednesday afternoon, a stretch of Hamilton Street was rededicated “Milo Way”. And by rededicated I mean that under the actual street sign a legally insignificant sign was hung. It was the kind of sign you could buy from Spenser’s to be able to signify that the bar in your rumpus room is for “Red Sox Parking Only”, vainly hoping that actual Red Sox will “park” there, instead of your mother-in-law’s new husband.

Beyond being silly, it’s not really accurate. Hamilton Street is a well-paved, direct, one-way street, heading southwest between State Highway 59 and the George R. Brown Convention Center. A more accurate Milo Way would start off smoothly, run over Gene Elston’s grave, and proceed to deteriorate rapidly, meandering for miles and miles, not necessarily getting you anywhere. Along the way, there would be street signs promising you that you had almost reached the end, even though you can never actually get there.

Managing Through The Media, by Cecil Cooper – Quote of the Week: “I talked to (Pudge) last night about moving Keppinger into the No. 2 hole simply because Keppinger, in my estimation is a REAL two-hole hitter.”

Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez was the two-hole hitter Monday and Tuesday. Although evidently not a REAL one. I get the impression that Cecil Cooper imagines himself to be the baseball equivalent of Benjamin Linus…always saying something or doing something to push the psychological buttons of his players to move them into doing things they aren’t normally willing to do or capable of. Mr. Cooper, Lost, while a quality television show, isn’t real life. In, real life, you just get shit-canned for losing the clubhouse. Again.

Weak Ponderance of the Off-Day: If you were a famous female athlete, would you marry a man with the last name Dyke?

When we last saw the Chicago Cubs, they were busy taking credit for the work of an unholy alliance between Hurricane Ike and Allan Huber “Bud” Selig. While somewhere between 2 and 3 million residents of the Texas Gulf Coast were clearing tree debris and having all you can eat BBQ parties (because that’s all that happens during a Hurricane…one big party after another), the Astros were busy bugging out to play a home series in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Even if you believe that Pangea was a reality, it’s tough to work out the geography.

Predictably, the Astros lost those two games in impressive fashion, including being no-hit by Carlos Zambrano, who did his best rooster impression after the game. And by rooster, I mean cock. The Astros started a 5-game losing streak, the Cubs won their second consecutive Division title, and Bud was appointed to an oversight committee by Rod Blagojevich.

Good for the Cubs. As is their indomitable style, they proceeded to get swept out of the playoffs in the first round, and the cock, he cried. (Do not perform a Google image search for “Crying Cock” at work.)

Flash forward almost 6 months, and we get a visit from those same Cubs, who, sources say, are primed to break their 100+ year drought on World Series Championships, goats be damned. ESPN says so, Baseball Prospectus says so, the Sporting News (yes, they’re still in business) says so. Even Richard Justice says so. Until he changed his mind. But then he changed it back. What time is it?

Meanwhile your hometown team, the lowly Houston Astros, are picked by everyone not named Cecil Cooper and Lance Berkman to finish in the bottom half of the Central Division. It makes sense, as the Astros are the oldest team in the National League, and would probably be the oldest team in the Harris County Senior Softball League if they were allowed to compete there. (Unfortunately for the Astros, Harris County is a stickler about league players providing *VALID* identification, excluding Wandy Rodriguez and Miguel Tejada.)

Along with age. Also not in the Astros’ favor is the starting rotation, featuring a potential Cy Young candidate in Roy Oswalt, Rodriguez and then a series of reclamation projects named Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler and Russ Ortiz. Hampton and Ortiz haven’t been healthy or helpful (except maybe to little old ladies, and I’m just giving them the benefit of the doubt here) in years. Moehler was at this time last year, lucky to be on a major league roster.

But…despite all of that, and despite lingering issues with the top of the order, and despite Cecil Cooper’s penchant for imagining himself to be a managerial cross between Joe Torre (good call Yankees), St. Sebastian and Montgomery Burns, and despite the apparent health concerns of nearly everyone on the roster except for Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence (discounting window panes and sliding glass doors), this team is still more or less the same team that went 42-24 in the second half of 2008.

It’s reasonable to expect better seasons from Cooper, Rodriguez, the catching position, Bourn and Pence. It’s reasonable to expect a more consistent season from Berkman, Tejada, Oswalt and Valverde. It’s reasonable to expect healthy seasons from Carlos Lee and Jeff Keppinger. And, as was true last season, an outstanding bullpen is in place. Every team needs some luck to win big, so luck notwithstanding, the talent and the desire to win big lives at the corner of Crawford and Texas this season.

The keys to the season for your hometown nine are pretty simple.  Bourn has to produce, and needs to produce at the top of the lineup.  Hampton and Ortiz have to take 25 to 30 starts apiece.  The innings don’t all have to be good, but they’ve got to eat innings all year long.  The middle of the line-up has to produce. And, maybe most importantly, Cooper has to find a balance to his managerial style.  The Astros had a winning season last year despite his on the job training.  They need him to be better this season.  If he can accomplish that, and the Astros can stay healthy, opening day won’t be the only cause for celebration in MMPUS this summer.

Beyond being glad that baseball is back, there’s potential joy in Houston this summer.  Pound some Shiner, and strap in.  These are your 2009 Houston Astros.  The ride is probably going to be bumpy, but it could also be pretty special.