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Author Topic: This sounds about right  (Read 1915 times)

pravata

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This sounds about right
« on: February 09, 2007, 11:55:25 am »
Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun Times posts a lucid outline for the Central Division.

He opines that losing Pettitte and potentially Clemens shouldn't be prohibitive for the Astros as, "Jason Jennings and Woody Williams could contribute more innings than the Pettitte-Clemens combo."  He says that the Brewers have the best pitching in the Division, which seems reasonable, but doubts their hitting.  He boils the Central down to "...the Cubs have more meat in their lineup than the Cardinals, and their pitching doesn't appear to be as suspect as what St. Louis is taking to camp. The Astros could be positioned for a fast start -- something that has eluded them the last three years. (Ok, so he didnt pay attention last season) The key will be which team finds the most reliable closer."
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Seeing as the Cubs are about to use Ryan Dempster and Isringhausen may have injury issues, and Wainwright is possibly in the rotation, I like those odds.  Meanwhile, local writers are hinging the Astros chances on whether Luke Scott hits .336 the whole season.
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homer

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2007, 12:24:01 pm »
 
Quote:

whether Luke Scott hits .336 the whole season



I thought the implication was that this would make him 'the real deal'... anything less and he is just another chump.
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pravata

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2007, 12:29:51 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

whether Luke Scott hits .336 the whole season



I thought the implication was that this would make him 'the real deal'... anything less and he is just another chump.



And that's the only 2 options isn't it? Superstar or chump.  Pinwheel includes the "If" about Luke Scott in his blog posting titled, "The Astros will win in 2007 if..."  So, in addition to peripheral issues like Biggio, Clemens, and the real factors of Ensberg and Lidge, he also says that Scott is a key.  Personally, I agree about Lidge and that puts me in line with the guy in Chicago.  But overall I think Oswalt, Jennings, Lee, Burke and Berkman will have more to do with how far the Astros go than whether Scott hits like he did for a month last season.
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toddthebod

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2007, 12:32:09 pm »
Well, someone besides Berkman and Lee have to hit.  

The Astros seem to be projecting that Burke will be a better offensive player than Wily T. but nothing I have seen from him to date suggests that he is an above-average hitter.  Biggio had a terrible last couple of months, which raises concerns.  Ensberg -- well, we've discussed him to death.  And the Astros know that they aren't going to get much offensive production out of Everett and Ausmus.  

So that leaves Luke Scott.  I don't think that it is unfair to say that a lot rests of Scott's bat.
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Foghorn

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2007, 12:42:26 pm »
Quote:

I don't think that it is unfair to say that a lot rests of Scott's bat.



I do.
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homer

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2007, 12:47:54 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

whether Luke Scott hits .336 the whole season



I thought the implication was that this would make him 'the real deal'... anything less and he is just another chump.



And that's the only 2 options isn't it? Superstar or chump.  Pinwheel includes the "If" about Luke Scott in his blog posting titled, "The Astros will win in 2007 if..."  So, in addition to peripheral issues like Biggio, Clemens, and the real factors of Ensberg and Lidge, he also says that Scott is a key.  Personally, I agree about Lidge and that puts me in line with the guy in Chicago.  But overall I think Oswalt, Jennings, Lee, Burke and Berkman will have more to do with how far the Astros go than whether Scott hits like he did for a month last season.



I think good performance from the guys you mention, with just average years from other folks, get the Astros 85-90 wins... which will probably put them in contention but doesn't guarantee a playoff berth.

I think if Ensberg or Luke (or both) have a strong year (.290/25) along with a strong performance (3.90-4.20 ERA over 120-150 innings) from one of the young starters then the Astros win 90-95 and perhaps win the division.
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S.P. Rodriguez

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2007, 12:50:56 pm »
Quote:

Well, someone besides Berkman and Lee have to hit.  

The Astros seem to be projecting that Burke will be a better offensive player than Wily T. but nothing I have seen from him to date suggests that he is an above-average hitter.  Biggio had a terrible last couple of months, which raises concerns.  Ensberg -- well, we've discussed him to death.  And the Astros know that they aren't going to get much offensive production out of Everett and Ausmus.  

So that leaves Luke Scott.  I don't think that it is unfair to say that a lot rests of Scott's bat.



Could you qualify above-average, or even average, when it comes to a top of the order hitter like Burke?  I realize he's been used all up and down the lineup but, and I may be alone in thinking this, I think he's mis-cast in a run producer role.  That's just me.  So, if he's not a run-producer, looking at what he does, I'd say he's average to above average.
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pravata

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2007, 12:53:08 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

I don't think that it is unfair to say that a lot rests of Scott's bat.



I do.



It's equivalent to blaming the 2006 offense on Everett and Ausmus.  The complimentary players are just that.  The Astros recognize that the core players, Lee, Berkman, and Ensberg are going to have to hit.  And, as Purpura said, if Lee and Berkman hit, everyone else should have an easier time.  They're not counting on Scott to be a primary factor in the offense.  Inviting Hidalgo to Spring Training is more than enough evidence of that.
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MusicMan

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2007, 02:13:51 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I don't think that it is unfair to say that a lot rests of Scott's bat.



I do.



It's equivalent to blaming the 2006 offense on Everett and Ausmus.  ...

They're not counting on Scott to be a primary factor in the offense.  Inviting Hidalgo to Spring Training is more than enough evidence of that.



Would it be fair to say that a lot rests on the right fielder's bat?

Corner OF isn't a defensive spot.  You need to have someone who can drive in runs.
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pravata

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2007, 02:50:43 pm »
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I don't think that it is unfair to say that a lot rests of Scott's bat.



I do.



It's equivalent to blaming the 2006 offense on Everett and Ausmus.  ...

They're not counting on Scott to be a primary factor in the offense.  Inviting Hidalgo to Spring Training is more than enough evidence of that.



Would it be fair to say that a lot rests on the right fielder's bat?

Corner OF isn't a defensive spot.  You need to have someone who can drive in runs.



Right field, yes.  But if they are counting on Luke Scott to hit .336 in order to win, as Richard Justice says, they're sunk.  Whoever plays RF can't be a zero, but he doesnt have to be the NL MVP, which .336 would possibly be, either.  There are options in between.
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Foghorn

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2007, 03:55:16 pm »
If RF puts up a line something like 280/330/490 I don't think anyone would have a problem.
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S.P. Rodriguez

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2007, 04:05:23 pm »
Those are nice numbers, but I'm more interested in whether the team can manage 70-80 RBI out of the 5th and 6th spots (each) whether those players play RF or 3B.  If the Astros can get between 140-160 RBI out of those two spots, in addition to what Berkman and Lee produce, this offense will be just fine.  Assuming Berkman comes up with about 120-130, and Lee drives in about 100, I think this team could drive in  50-70 more runs over the course of the year, compared to 2006.  Now, whether that translates to wins is a whole different debate.
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Fredia

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2007, 04:17:07 pm »
why is it every time ensberg has to hit comes up it makes me slightly uncomfortable.if doggie does come back to the show and ends up riding the pine again do you think he will blow his top. scott i think would be comfortable in any roll that would keep him with the team..and at least in my opinion garner has never been afraid to play with the line up and will go with the hot bat(moreso this season than with his hunches)
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mihoba

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Re: This sounds about right
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2007, 04:23:03 pm »
Quote:

Those are nice numbers, but I'm more interested in whether the team can manage 70-80 RBI out of the 5th and 6th spots (each) whether those players play RF or 3B.  If the Astros can get between 140-160 RBI out of those two spots, in addition to what Berkman and Lee produce, this offense will be just fine.  Assuming Berkman comes up with about 120-130, and Lee drives in about 100, I think this team could drive in  50-70 more runs over the course of the year, compared to 2006.  Now, whether that translates to wins is a whole different debate.



I have my sights set even higher, with 3 players over 100 RBI's and another with 80+. I think that's what it will take to compete for the division title, if the pitching is middle of the road.
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