Coming Around

[Alkie]

109 RBI, 96 runs.

101 RBI, 84 runs.

The first number is Carlos Lee's average season from 2003-05.  The second number is Aubrey Huff's average season from 2003-05.  Playing for the Devil Rays.

Even with the shit season Huff had last year (I'm talking entire season, not the Month of Production), I'm not sure I see why Huff will cost $7m, Caballo will cost $15m, and yet everyone is going apeshit over the latter.

I wasn't pro-Huff, but the more I look at the options, Huff-plus-the-difference-in-money-spent-on-Schmidt seems to make more and more sense.

Anyone got anything to add to this?

Here's another one: other than Schmidt and Zito, what other #2 or #3 type pitchers could the Astros hope to realistically look at?

[Froback]

Not as a FA.  Trades are always possible, just a question of price.

[Limey]

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Here's another one: other than Schmidt and Zito, what other #2 or #3 type pitchers could the Astros hope to realistically look at?

There's not much in the for-sure FA pool.  But of those on-the-bubble who might come available there's:
* the Jake rotation of Mulder, Weaver and Suppan;
* Kip Wells
* Randy Wolf
* John Thompson
* Mike Mussina ($17mm club option for '07)
* Wade Miller

Ah, fuck it.  Here's the full list.

[Froback]

But would you really consider any of them #2 or #3 type starters?

I think Pettitte will be re-signed which removes him name from the list too.

So the question becomes do the Astros have the cash to sign a Schmidt/Zito or do they think that the young kids they have can hold the fort until Roger does the mid-year thing again (which I think he will, call it a gut-feeling)?

[JimR]

one thing i heard is that Carlos weighs 290 now.

[Froback]

Back to your Lee and Huff comparisson.

I agree Huff seemed a bit off last year, which I attribute to changing teams/leagues and being bounced around in the order a bit.

I think you will find most 4/5 hitters have very similar numbered in the RBI and Runs scored areas.  But they are not all equal.

I keep thinking the Astros are lined-up for some big trade this off-season.  Acquiring Huff would allow them to trade Ensberg and not have to receive a 3B in return (no I don't consider Lamb an option at 3B).  I have no clue what the big trade might yield, but I have to believe it would be for a starter of some quality or a hitter of some value (just for example purposes) like Wells in Tor.

The players I have heard the most about involving the Astros are Wells, Crawford and Willis as far as trades go, but then often the player you hear nothing about is the one you end up with.  But I see this being an exciting off-season both in the FA area and in the trade area.

But then I have been wrong before so who knows!

[Limey]

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But would you really consider any of them #2 or #3 type starters?

I think Pettitte will be re-signed which removes him name from the list too.

I think a couple of them could be solid #3s, especially considering the alternative is one of the kids.  Mulder, Suppan or Wolf stand out to me.

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So the question becomes do the Astros have the cash to sign a Schmidt/Zito or do they think that the young kids they have can hold the fort until Roger does the mid-year thing again (which I think he will, call it a gut-feeling)?

They'll do it if they are sure that the Racket is returning, but otherwise I don't think they'll wait.  They have too much cash available (assuming that ever dollar freed it is going to be re-committed) to pass up some of the opportunities out there.

If they re-up Pettitte and get one of Schmidt or Zito - none of which is particularly fantastical - I don't think they'll be too worried about the back of the rotation.  We'll debate it into a pulp, of course.

[Froback]

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We'll debate it into a pulp, of course.

Ahh we never do that.

(Please ignore Ensberg vs Huff discussion and Bagwell playing 3B and Ausmus vs hitting catcher, and ...)

[Lefty]

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Mulder, Suppan or Wolf stand out to me.

Suppan would be my 1st choice, as he's been durable, consistent, and gets lots of ground balls (the anti-Ted Lilly).  Mulder's in that same vein, but his arm troubles are troublesome.  I'd add Gil Meche or Vic Padilla to your list.  Woody Williams for 1 year?

Zito ain't coming to Houston.

[Lefty]

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one thing i heard is that Carlos weighs 290 now.

Yikes.  Slap a weight clause in his contract.

[Froback]

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one thing i heard is that Carlos weighs 290 now.

Yikes.  Slap a weight clause in his contract.

I can see it now, an inverse of the Roger Attendence clause:

You get $15 Mil per year if your weight is 260 or below all year; and it drops $2 Mil per each range of 10 your are above 260.
261-270 13 Mil
271-280 11 Mil
281-290 9 Mil
291-300 7 Mil

[CarolinaStro]

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one thing i heard is that Carlos weighs 290 now.

Wow...what was his weight during the season?  Seems like he would avoid the big macs until AFTER he inks his contract.  This guy seems to have too much risk for such a large contract.  Kind of Hildagoish...

[Lefty]

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Wow...what was his weight during the season?

He was a big dude, and he *did* manage to go 19 fer 21 stealing bases last year.

[pravata]

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one thing i heard is that Carlos weighs 290 now.

Wow...what was his weight during the season?  Seems like he would avoid the big macs until AFTER he inks his contract.  This guy seems to have too much risk for such a large contract.  Kind of Hildagoish...

Hildago bulked up lifting weights.

[Limey]

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Yikes.  Slap a weight clause in his contract.

Right.  He can eat all he wants, but he has to hit higher than his weight.

[Limey]

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He was a big dude, and he *did* manage to go 19 fer 21 stealing bases last year.

Are you going to stand in and take the throw with that bearing down on you?

[HPFRic]

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Even with the shit season Huff had last year (I'm talking entire season, not the Month of Production

i don't get the "shit" season conclusion; he was hurt early last year, but once he got to houston, we was every bit as good as we were led to believe.

consider:
his career OPS is .819; as an astro (224 ABs), his OPS was .819 had he been on his astro pace all year (year = his previous 3-year average of 604 ABs), he would have socked 35 HRs and driven in 104 Rs. (his career highs in those categories, btw: 34/107.)

that's a shit season?

yeah, yeah - he only hit .250, but that's meaningless. had the guy just gotten 5 more measley hits, he would have hit .272 as an astro (and those that watched him know, he hit A LOT of rockets right at people). so with five more seeing-eye singles and/or texas leaguers, huff was on a .272/35/104/.819 pace as an astro.

it was NOT a shit season. i think resigning him and adding lee gives the astros a VERY potent 3-5. if scott is even half as good as he was in '06, and you can get solid production out of biggio/burke, then that would be a very dangerous team with a great R/L mix.

[jaklewein]

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one thing i heard is that Carlos weighs 290 now.

Wow...what was his weight during the season?  Seems like he would avoid the big macs until AFTER he inks his contract.  This guy seems to have too much risk for such a large contract.  Kind of Hildagoish...

Hildago bulked up lifting weights.

He may have lifted weights, but I remember seeing him in spring training that year and he had a good sized gut to go along with any added muscle.

[pravata]

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one thing i heard is that Carlos weighs 290 now.

Wow...what was his weight during the season?  Seems like he would avoid the big macs until AFTER he inks his contract.  This guy seems to have too much risk for such a large contract.  Kind of Hildagoish...

Hildago bulked up lifting weights.

He may have lifted weights, but I remember seeing him in spring training that year and he had a good sized gut to go along with any added muscle.

That is contrary to other eye witnesses who's judgements I trust.  MichaelN for one.

[Michael N]

Anybody willing to pay Carlos Lee $15 million a year is out of his/her fucking gourd. That's Berkman/Pooholes money. Carlos Lee is NOT Lance Berkman.

Of the pitchers out there we might have a shot at signing, I'm kinda intrigued by Mulder. The guy is a ground ball inducing machine and he won't be 30 until the pennant chase begins next season. Now that they know what was wrong with him and he's had surgury to correct the problem he might be the best FA shot at high return on a reasonable investment.

[No? in Austin]

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Anybody willing to pay Carlos Lee $15 million a year is out of his/her fucking gourd. That's Berkman/Pooholes money. Carlos Lee is NOT Lance Berkman.

Is that what Lee is asking for?  At least Kent, who said he wanted to be near his ranch, worked with the Astros on the deal that was fair for both sides.  Pass on Lee if that is what he's asking.

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Of the pitchers out there we might have a shot at signing, I'm kinda intrigued by Mulder. The guy is a ground ball inducing machine and he won't be 30 until the pennant chase begins next season. Now that they know what was wrong with him and he's had surgury to correct the problem he might be the best FA shot at high return on a reasonable investment.

It is my considered opinion that the Houston Astros need a solid #3 guy.  They've needed him for three years now, but the combination of Oswalt, Pettitte and Clemens was hard to deny as the top three.  However, the #3 guy is usually the type of pitcher I'd like to see eat some freaking innings for an entire year.  I don't think he has to be a low ERA guy, just somebody that can save the pen for a good chuck of time.  Oswalt has piled up a ton of innings in the last few seasons and Pettitte with his ailing elbow and Clemens with his age were not able to help Roy in that department.

I'd like to see the Astros bring in a guy who can munch up some innings.  Jeff Suppan?  Yeah, he's the type of guy I'd like to see pitch for the Astros.  I'm frankly concerned how easy it has been for Scraps to point out towards Qualls/Wheeler/Lidge for an inning a night type of service for an entire season.

Get a inning eating #3, save the pen and see how solid those top three relievers can be for an entire season... that's what I say!

[schlumburger04]

 

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I'd like to see the Astros bring in a guy who can munch up some innings. Jeff Suppan? Yeah, he's the type of guy I'd like to see pitch for the Astros.  

there isnt really a big innings eater on the market outside zito. suppan probably will resign, maybe padilla, lilly or wolf could be a guy like that when healthy. if his option isnt picked up buehrle would be a big innings eater available but he really sucked it up this year and is pretty overrated.

[das]

 

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Slap a weight clause in his contract.

Didn't work for Heavy D.

[MusicMan]

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I'd like to see the Astros bring in a guy who can munch up some innings. Jeff Suppan? Yeah, he's the type of guy I'd like to see pitch for the Astros.  

there isnt really a big innings eater on the market outside zito.  

How about a 3-time all-star, who's averaged over 200 IP with a 3.33 ERA over the last 4 years?

Jason Schmidt, come on down.

[Alkie]

MM, you haven't been up on thangs.

Ted Lilly is available, we don't need Jason Schmidt.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

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I'd like to see the Astros bring in a guy who can munch up some innings. Jeff Suppan? Yeah, he's the type of guy I'd like to see pitch for the Astros.  

there isnt really a big innings eater on the market outside zito.  

How about a 3-time all-star, who's averaged over 200 IP with a 3.33 ERA over the last 4 years?

Jason Schmidt, come on down.

Only if you can afford Pedro money - 4 yrs, 50mil.  McLane could probably afford it but you have to ask if it's a good idea to commit to that deal with a 34 yr old pitcher.

[MusicMan]

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MM, you haven't been up on thangs.

Ted Lilly is available, we don't need Jason Schmidt.

Ah, of course.  The Ted Lilly who has cracked the 4.00 barrier once, in 2002 (with 100 innings), and who has NEVER gone 200 IP in his career.

Throw in fights with his manager, and it sounds like we can't go wrong.

[pravata]

Trade for Freddy Garcia.  The problem is that lots of teams are going to try to trade for Freddy Garcia.

[schlumburger04]

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I'd like to see the Astros bring in a guy who can munch up some innings. Jeff Suppan? Yeah, he's the type of guy I'd like to see pitch for the Astros.  

there isnt really a big innings eater on the market outside zito.  

How about a 3-time all-star, who's averaged over 200 IP with a 3.33 ERA over the last 4 years?

Jason Schmidt, come on down.

hes always broke, go ahead and give a 34 yr old 5 years and 60 mil if you really want though i guess it cant go wrong

[jaklewein]

 hes always broke

I thought the same thing...go look at the numbers, minus one year...fucker's piled up the IP.

[stubbyc]

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How about a 3-time all-star, who's averaged over 200 IP with a 3.33 ERA over the last 4 years?

Jason Schmidt, come on down.

I've heard Schmidt's already decided to either go to Seattle or stay with San Francisco.

[MusicMan]

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I'd like to see the Astros bring in a guy who can munch up some innings. Jeff Suppan? Yeah, he's the type of guy I'd like to see pitch for the Astros.  

there isnt really a big innings eater on the market outside zito.  

How about a 3-time all-star, who's averaged over 200 IP with a 3.33 ERA over the last 4 years?

Jason Schmidt, come on down.

hes always broke,

Games started:
2006 - 32
2005 - 29
2004 - 32
2003 - 29
2002 - 29

Show me the part in here where he's "always broke".  Do you mean that he wastes his money on slow horses and fast women?

[Froback]

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Only if you can afford Pedro money - 4 yrs, 50mil.  McLane could probably afford it but you have to ask if it's a good idea to commit to that deal with a 34 yr old pitcher.

For Schmidt, I would make that deal.  I will take on that risk, given he has been having issues and yet bulldogs through it to do 30+ starts and 200+ innings every year.

That mentality is something I want around the young pitchers we are brining up.  Not to mention he does it without a spectacular FB, meaning he knows how to pitch.  Which is also important to teach young pitchers.

Then if Pettitte is signed even without Roger we have a stout 1-2-3 roation and the young kids can cut their teeth in a less pressured spot at the back end of the rotation.

[schlumburger04]

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I'd like to see the Astros bring in a guy who can munch up some innings. Jeff Suppan? Yeah, he's the type of guy I'd like to see pitch for the Astros.  

there isnt really a big innings eater on the market outside zito.  

How about a 3-time all-star, who's averaged over 200 IP with a 3.33 ERA over the last 4 years?

Jason Schmidt, come on down.

hes always broke,

Games started:
2006 - 32
2005 - 29
2004 - 32
2003 - 29
2002 - 29

Show me the part in here where he's "always broke".  Do you mean that he wastes his money on slow horses and fast women?

the part where he has several missed starts in every single one of the years you listed. and i dont even have to mention his history before that

[jaklewein]

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I'd like to see the Astros bring in a guy who can munch up some innings. Jeff Suppan? Yeah, he's the type of guy I'd like to see pitch for the Astros.  

there isnt really a big innings eater on the market outside zito.  

How about a 3-time all-star, who's averaged over 200 IP with a 3.33 ERA over the last 4 years?

Jason Schmidt, come on down.

hes always broke,

Games started:
2006 - 32
2005 - 29
2004 - 32
2003 - 29
2002 - 29

Show me the part in here where he's "always broke".  Do you mean that he wastes his money on slow horses and fast women?

the part where he has several missed starts in every single one of the years you listed. and i dont even have to mention his history before that

Oswalt misses starts every year too, so what?

[MusicMan]

"Several"??

He's averaged one start per year less than Oswalt over that span.

[Arky Vaughan]

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Games started:
2006 - 32
2005 - 29
2004 - 32
2003 - 29
2002 - 29

Show me the part in here where he's "always broke".  Do you mean that he wastes his money on slow horses and fast women?

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the part where he has several missed starts in every single one of the years you listed. and i dont even have to mention his history before that

Best as I can figure, a pitcher in a five-man rotation not missing an outing over five years might be expected to start 162 games. Over the last five years, Schmidt has started 151 games.

That's a 93.2-percent attendance rate. While that isn't perfect, I'd be pretty surprised if it weren't in the top 20 in the majors over that span. Which makes me wonder how that makes Schmidt unreliable.

[Arky Vaughan]

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Best as I can figure, a pitcher in a five-man rotation not missing an outing over five years might be expected to start 162 games. Over the last five years, Schmidt has started 151 games.

That's a 93.2-percent attendance rate. While that isn't perfect, I'd be pretty surprised if it weren't in the top 20 in the majors over that span. Which makes me wonder how that makes Schmidt unreliable.

Put another way, Schmidt has missed an average of two starts per year over the last five years, based on what might be said to constitute perfect attendance.

[Froback]

Ok we need to stop, I can't stop thinking about getting Schmidt for 4 years and $50 Mil.

I would totally be stoked if the Astros can land him this FA market.

I think with that deal alone I would think it a good off-season.  And I doubt that is all they would do (see Pettitte re-signing and FA/trade for bat acquisition).

just stop, I am getting too excited... need to tone it down or draw too much attention at work  (which might make it hard to keep posting).

[schlumburger04]

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Best as I can figure, a pitcher in a five-man rotation not missing an outing over five years might be expected to start 162 games. Over the last five years, Schmidt has started 151 games.

That's a 93.2-percent attendance rate. While that isn't perfect, I'd be pretty surprised if it weren't in the top 20 in the majors over that span. Which makes me wonder how that makes Schmidt unreliable.

Put another way, Schmidt has missed an average of two starts per year over the last five years, based on what might be said to constitute perfect attendance.

35 starts maybe 34 constitutes perfect attendance which is some avg. i cant figure out but im sure its more than 2.

And his problem over the years has been arm injuries along with the groin stuff this year.

[Alkie]

Arky, again, you're dealing with real world numbers and our new friend is dealing with fantasy sports.

[Arky Vaughan]

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35 starts maybe 34 constitutes perfect attendance which is some avg. i cant figure out but im sure its more than 2.

And his problem over the years has been arm injuries along with the groin stuff this year.

The league leaders have been 35, 35, 35, 36 and 36 over the last five years, so if we held Schmidt to that standard, that would mean he started 151 of a possible league-leading 177 games. So he's missing five starts per year off the league lead. The question then becomes, who else has started more than 151 games for the period 2002-2006?

[Alkie]

Hey, longnickname, what are these:

31, 32, 25, 32
32, 23, 26, 32

[Froback]

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35 starts maybe 34 constitutes perfect attendance which is some avg. i cant figure out but im sure its more than 2.

And his problem over the years has been arm injuries along with the groin stuff this year.

The league leaders have been 35, 35, 35, 36 and 36 over the last five years, so if we held Schmidt to that standard, that would mean he started 151 of a possible league-leading 177 games. So he's missing five starts per year off the league lead. The question then becomes, who else has started more than 151 games for the period 2002-2006?

If I were wanting to know the answer to that question, I think you would be the first person I would ask!

[Arky Vaughan]

Maddux has 172 starts over that span. Glavine has 166. Schilling has 155. Zito has 173. The Unit has 155. Hudson has 159. Livan has 170. Milwood has 159.

So there are several pitchers with more than 151 starts. Maybe Schmidt sucks.

[Alkie]

Ok, while you're doing that, can I have the rotation of Schilling, Zito, Schmidt, Hudson, and Milwood and take my chances with Brad Ausmus hitting 8th?

[schlumburger04]

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35 starts maybe 34 constitutes perfect attendance which is some avg. i cant figure out but im sure its more than 2.

And his problem over the years has been arm injuries along with the groin stuff this year.

The league leaders have been 35, 35, 35, 36 and 36 over the last five years, so if we held Schmidt to that standard, that would mean he started 151 of a possible league-leading 177 games. So he's missing five starts per year off the league lead. The question then becomes, who else has started more than 151 games for the period 2002-2006?

Hold him to that standard? You said perfect attendance so by perfect i thought you meant like... perfect not almost perfect. As for the question, I can think of someone on the stros whos done that and im sure clemens would too if he wasnt a lazy ass this year

Now if you have the time lets make a list of the pitchers that have started atleast 33 games ONCE in the past 5 years

edit: well now that i think about it i could come up with several more you didnt list who pitched more than 151 games but whatever

[Lefty]

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im sure clemens would too if he wasnt a lazy ass this year

What

the

fuck?

[MusicMan]

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im sure clemens would too if he wasnt a lazy ass this year

And you wonder why we find you beyond pathetic?

It's bad enough that you have the temerity to call Roger Clemens, who has a greater work ethic than anything you'll EVER understand, a "lazy ass", but you conveniently ignore the fact that he DID miss a turn due to injury in his half season.

[schlumburger04]

it was just a joke chill out

[VirtualBob]

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it was just a joke chill out

Question for Arky or some other stat-person ...

If there are zero intelligent comments in 72 posts, is that a rate stat or a counting stat?

[BudGirl]

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it was just a joke chill out

So, have all your posts been jokes then?  That might explain a lot.

[Alkie]

I'll take this one.  In this case, it is both.

0 divided by any number is still zero.  And since "0 total" = 0 and "0 per <whatever>" = 0, and 0 = 0, we can say "both."

[Nate in IA]

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it was just a joke chill out

Question for Arky or some other stat-person ...

If there are zero intelligent comments in 72 posts, is that a rate stat or a counting stat?

That would be a rate stat (number of occurrances over some time period).  I'm pretty sure that would be below the Mendoza line however.

[homer]

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it was just a joke chill out

Question for Arky or some other stat-person ...

If there are zero intelligent comments in 72 posts, is that a rate stat or a counting stat?

HOF

[schlumburger04]

 

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 but you conveniently ignore the fact that he DID miss a turn due to injury in his half season.

and...? clemens is 44 years old and is still more reliable than schmidt so whats your point

[Michael N]

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Anybody willing to pay Carlos Lee $15 million a year is out of his/her fucking gourd. That's Berkman/Pooholes money. Carlos Lee is NOT Lance Berkman.

Is that what Lee is asking for?  At least Kent, who said he wanted to be near his ranch, worked with the Astros on the deal that was fair for both sides.  Pass on Lee if that is what he's asking.

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Of the pitchers out there we might have a shot at signing, I'm kinda intrigued by Mulder. The guy is a ground ball inducing machine and he won't be 30 until the pennant chase begins next season. Now that they know what was wrong with him and he's had surgury to correct the problem he might be the best FA shot at high return on a reasonable investment.

It is my considered opinion that the Houston Astros need a solid #3 guy.  They've needed him for three years now, but the combination of Oswalt, Pettitte and Clemens was hard to deny as the top three.  However, the #3 guy is usually the type of pitcher I'd like to see eat some freaking innings for an entire year.  I don't think he has to be a low ERA guy, just somebody that can save the pen for a good chuck of time.  Oswalt has piled up a ton of innings in the last few seasons and Pettitte with his ailing elbow and Clemens with his age were not able to help Roy in that department.

I'd like to see the Astros bring in a guy who can munch up some innings.  Jeff Suppan?  Yeah, he's the type of guy I'd like to see pitch for the Astros.  I'm frankly concerned how easy it has been for Scraps to point out towards Qualls/Wheeler/Lidge for an inning a night type of service for an entire season.

Get a inning eating #3, save the pen and see how solid those top three relievers can be for an entire season... that's what I say!

I don't know that any team is willing to pay $15 million a year to Lee. That's the figure our Alcoholic friend bandied about, so I responded.

From 2002-2005, Mark Mulder averaged 211 IP per year. That's a lot of innings eaten...

[Alkie]

That was the number I had heard.  He turned down $12m per from the Brewers and the numbers I had read were that he was looking to get in the $15m range.

So, let's say it's $13m per.  Same-same.

[Michael N]

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That was the number I had heard.  He turned down $12m per from the Brewers and the numbers I had read were that he was looking to get in the $15m range.

So, let's say it's $13m per.  Same-same.

I'm not picking at you, Alkie, just the number. The Brewers, IMO, gave Lee an inflated offer. If he's able to get that from another team he should jump on it.

I just don't think Lee is an elite player and financially smart teams should not pay non-elite players that kind of money.

[No? in Austin]

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That was the number I had heard.  He turned down $12m per from the Brewers and the numbers I had read were that he was looking to get in the $15m range.

So, let's say it's $13m per.  Same-same.

I'm not picking at you, Alkie, just the number. The Brewers, IMO, gave Lee an inflated offer. If he's able to get that from another team he should jump on it.

I just don't think Lee is an elite player and financially smart teams should not pay non-elite players that kind of money.

Insanity would rule the day if 1) Lee asked for that sort of money and 2) someone gave it to him.  I welcome the McLane factor in this scenario with open arms.  The McScrooge, the Uncle Drayton, the Christmas hoarding one... that McLane.

Lee can go find that money elsewhere.

As for the inning eater, there are three ways to look for that guy:

1. Free agency
2. Trade
3. Minor League system

It's a shame that the minors don't turn out inning eaters any more, not with the arms being babied down there.  So there are only two options left.  Mulder is looking better and better because of that.

[Foghorn]

I like innings eaters.

Give me Oswalt, a bully, and 4 innings eaters and I'll go to battle.

4.50 ERA, 200 IP.  Hopefully for around $5M/year or less.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

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That was the number I had heard.  He turned down $12m per from the Brewers and the numbers I had read were that he was looking to get in the $15m range.

So, let's say it's $13m per.  Same-same.

I'm not picking at you, Alkie, just the number. The Brewers, IMO, gave Lee an inflated offer. If he's able to get that from another team he should jump on it.

I just don't think Lee is an elite player and financially smart teams should not pay non-elite players that kind of money.

Insanity would rule the day if 1) Lee asked for that sort of money and 2) someone gave it to him.  I welcome the McLane factor in this scenario with open arms.  The McScrooge, the Uncle Drayton, the Christmas hoarding one... that McLane.

Lee can go find that money elsewhere.

As for the inning eater, there are three ways to look for that guy:

1. Free agency
2. Trade
3. Minor League system

It's a shame that the minors don't turn out inning eaters any more, not with the arms being babied down there.  So there are only two options left.  Mulder is looking better and better because of that.

While I agree with you, the best options seem to have serious drawbacks.  Schmidt, if interested in Houston, is older and will command a hefty contract because he is simply that good.  Mulder, coming off injury should be less expensive in the short term but does anyone really know what they are getting next season?  Zito seems to be highly over-rated, or at least his contract will be inflated because of Boras' involvement if he's even willing to consider Houston.  The rest of the FA's are less than inspiring: Meche, Wolfe, etc...

I could be wrong, a couple of those mid-range FA starters could hold down the rotation if the bullpen is strong.  That may be the strategy but, if so, at least one of those mid-range starters has to give you better than expected performance.

[HPFRic]

Quote:
I just don't think Lee is an elite player and financially smart teams should not pay non-elite players that kind of money.

the years, more than the money, are what concern me. which isn't to say i think lee's worth $12-15M, but i sure as hell don't want to owe him that much when he's 35 (his age when a 4-year deal would end). his body type... he has "break down" written all over him.

if i'm drayton, i try to maximize my roi with a firm 2-year, $28M offer; take it or leave it.

[VirtualBob]

Quote:
 ... at least [Zito's] contract will be inflated ...

I thought this thread was about Lee, and that he was the one who was inflated.