Author Topic: Ask And Ye Shall Maybe Receive: Season 2, Vol 8. (Read 21389 times)

Jacksonian · « **on:** August 01, 2006, 12:15:59 pm »

New month, new thread.

We're closing in on the end of the minor league seasons.

No decisions yet on the format of this forum.

Duman · « **Reply #1 on:** August 01, 2006, 12:38:09 pm »

I found these links to be helpful in the previous discussion about options.

The Link

The Link

Duder · « **Reply #2 on:** August 02, 2006, 12:36:00 am »

Looks like Stiehl broke his left fibula (ouch). This really has to suck for him with his history of injuries. It seemed as though his last few outings were pretty good. Does anyone know how hard he had been throwing? Anyway, here's The Link

Note: It looks like the link could change depending on what's the latest story on the Salem Avalanche site, so just look for the headline "Salem Claims Bittersweet Win" if the link doesn't have the right info.

Froback · « **Reply #3 on:** August 02, 2006, 12:11:05 pm »

Two Astros make their list of the best Tools players in AAA.

They break it down into each tool area, 1 players name for each tool.

Jimerson was rated the best baserunner (but not the fastest)
Hirsh was rated the best control (but not the best pitcher, Jared Weaver)

Both those rankings for PCL only (INTL had its own list).

Pay Link

Some guys are listed twice for two different areas, and they will be reporting the best for AA, High-A and Low-A over the next several days. I will let you know if any Astros make that list too.

Duman · « **Reply #4 on:** August 02, 2006, 12:43:05 pm »

I know this may be early to be asking this question but Greeneville has 4 position players who were drafted in the top 10 rounds of the 05 draft and are back for their second year of rookie ball. I would expect them to show some improvement over the previous year but I am not seeing it. Here are the stats below for 05 & 06 so far.

Year K/BB BA/OBS/SLG

Brandon Barnes (6th round)
05 36/10 .200/.273/.303
06 26/9   .200/276/.314

Ralph Henriquez   (2nd Round)
05 46/6 .215/.271/.345
06 33/9 .237/.280/.340

Allen Langdon (10th Round)
05 17/1 .162/.205/.270
06 36/14 .245/.360/.349

Timmy Johnson (7th Round)
05 46/8 .192/.250/.089
06 16/7 .064/.228/.085

Langdon is the only one who shows significant improvement, yet he was injured most of last year so it isn't a good comparision. The only number I saw improvement across the board is an increase in walks. K's are down some what if you look at K's/AB.

Maybe these guys will have great 3rd years (like Parraz is having) but again, I was expecting something more impressive this year.

If these guys don't bust out next year, do the Astros have a scouting problem or a development problem?

jbm · « **Reply #5 on:** August 02, 2006, 05:08:13 pm »

Langdon doesn't seem like good data for your question.

Henriquez and Johnson were high schoolers, and Barnes looks like he only had one year of college?

I haven't been looking at minor league stats very long, and spend most of my time on players in the Astro's organization, so I don't get a good gauge on how much, or how rapid players from other organizations develope. But based on the rapid improvement in guys like Parraz (thank goodness-an outfielder looking good) and Ramirez, I've concluded that really young guys (say 20 years old and younger) should be given a lot of slack before one can conclude rapid improvement is unlikely.

Also, even if you concluded that the lack of development of these guys was final, wouldn't the development of Parraz and Ramirez be nice rebuttals?

As an aside, I have no actual data, so I have no strong opinions, but my sense is that the Astro organization is much better at developing pitching than hitting.

Duman · « **Reply #6 on:** August 02, 2006, 05:42:18 pm »

Quote:

Langdon doesn't seem like good data for your question.

I only put him in there since he fit the draft pick part of the equation.

Quote:

Henriquez and Johnson were high schoolers, and Barnes looks like he only had one year of college?

Also, even if you concluded that the lask of development of these guys was final, wouldn't the development of Parraz and Ramirez be nice rebuttals?

I agree they are young and I said I maybe too early with the question but Parraz had had one year of college as well and when you look at his 3 years you see progress each year leading to a good year this year.

If it is Ronald Remirez you are referring to, he is having a better year in Greeneville than he had in the VSL last year where he hit .267. Again seeing improvement from year to year.

I concerned about the lack of growth this year with Johnson (he is getting the yips in the field too), Barnes & Henriquez.

Quote:

As an aside, I have no actual data, so I have no strong opinions, but my sense is that the Astro organization is much better at developing pitching than hitting.

Which is why you can expect anywhere from 7 or 8 of the top 10 prospects at the end of the year to be pitchers. It also is why I am asking the question. Are we not good at scouting hitting prospects or are we not good at developing them?

Froback · « **Reply #8 on:** August 02, 2006, 06:23:08 pm »

The problem is that SO much depends on the player themselves and how they respond (or don't) to the coaching and the challenges that the minors bring.

And since each team might hope for 3-4 players per draft (typically around 50 picks) ever making the 25-man roster...

jbm · « **Reply #9 on:** August 02, 2006, 06:45:46 pm »

I didn't know Parraz had a year in college. But he illustrates the rapid improvement possible in young guys. Per the baseball cube, his only years listed were as follows:

04 44/24 .244/.349/.400
05 46/12 .259/.307/.365

06 26/19 .325/.427/.500

He actually regressed his second year, but has taken a gigantic jump this year.

For Ramirez, I've only seen the batting average data as I don't know where to find comparable data, but I'm pretty sure he would also illustrate a sudden leap forward in his forth year.

Anyways, back to your question about scouting vs development. My opinion in regard to hitting is that the skills needed to become a good hitter are pretty much inate. In other words, if the young man doesn't have natural hitting skills, he is unlikely to develop into a major league hitter. If he is a natural and emotionally matures, he has a chance to rise to the top, in any organization.

So, if you conclude that the organization is poor in hitting, my opinion is the problem lies more with scouting, since I doubt an organization can teach poor hitters to become major league hitters. Pitching seems totally different. I suspect it is equal parts scouting and development.

All in all, someone more knowledgable than I am can probably make a good argument and provide some insight into the general development vs. scouting question. IMO, it is a very interesting topic.

VirtualBob · « **Reply #10 on:** August 03, 2006, 01:59:25 am »

Quintero started for Tri City at 2B before Greg Buchanan signed and then started a few games in LF. He seemed to be doing OK, but has fallen off the edge of the world. Is he hurt? Released? Sent back to Venezuela or D.R.??

Just curious if anyone knows anything.

Froback · « **Reply #11 on:** August 03, 2006, 02:07:22 am »

Well the AA list is out now.

Ben Zobrist was best in Strike Zone Judgement
Josh Anderson was best and fastest baserunnner
Paul Estrada had the best breaking pitch
Hunter Pence was dubed most exciting player

pay link

Duman · « **Reply #14 on:** August 03, 2006, 04:28:48 pm »

One of those underdogs I like to pull for is Chris Campos. Chris is a LHP who was a NDFA out of Oregon State. After a rough june in Lexington, he has really appeared to pull things together.

In his last six appearances out of the bull pen he has 9 1/3 innings pitched, allowed 2 hits, 1 earned run, walked 2 and k'd 11.

Zac D · « **Reply #15 on:** August 04, 2006, 03:04:34 am »

It occurred to me randomly today to check on Gimenez's stats, and it appears he's having his best season with the stick in several years. However, I don't think there's been as much discussion about him this year as previous ones.

Is he still considered a prospect and perhaps on track to replace Ausmus as the everyday catcher when Brad's tenure is over? I recall Gimenez being considered a plus defensive catcher, and needing primarily to work on his offensive game to stick in the majors as a starter - still true?

Froback · « **Reply #16 on:** August 04, 2006, 10:46:16 am »

Only 2 Astros made the lists for the Carolina League

Jimmy Barthmaier - Best Breaking Ball
Edwin Maysonet - Best Defensive SS

Pay Link

Greg · « **Reply #18 on:** August 07, 2006, 03:21:04 pm »

I'd like to catch a game where Matt Albers is pitching in RR. I cannot find a run down of the rotation anywhere. Anyone have any resources to find it? Cheers.

Froback · « **Reply #19 on:** August 07, 2006, 05:31:10 pm »

Most were posted in the Numbers post, but here is the full list of Astros:

Best Control: Tip Fairchild
Best Defensive C: J.R. Towles
Best Defensive 2B: Eric King
Best Defensive SS: Tommy Manzella

Pay Link

Froback · « **Reply #20 on:** August 09, 2006, 12:06:53 pm »

So what is the current view of him? (prefered from scouts/insiders opinions)

Has he turned a corner this year, or is he still viewed as a fringe, ML back-up type player?

It is nice to see his doubles are up, and he is getting on at close to a 36% clip, and he recently has been doing better at stealing and not getting caught.

matadorph · « **Reply #21 on:** August 10, 2006, 12:55:54 am »

I know it's a small sample size, but has JR House's torrid hitting earned him a September call up to the bigs?

He upped his average to .529 tonight with a 5-for-6 night at the plate with 3 rbi.

Jayzus.

Froback · « **Reply #22 on:** August 10, 2006, 11:26:39 am »

Given that he is now considered a 1B not a C for position, and the large number of 1B/DH types already on the ML roster, I would guess he will get the call after Sept 1st, and after the AAA playoff run.

Next year, he will have a shot at making the ML squad depending on what happends in the off-season.

That would be my guess.

Duder · « **Reply #23 on:** August 10, 2006, 11:46:21 am »

Who would get knocked off the 40 man if House got the call in September?

Duder · « **Reply #27 on:** August 10, 2006, 07:30:36 pm »

I was thinking that they would leave Jimerson on the 40 man to use him as a pinch runner and defensive substitute in September.

Duman · « **Reply #29 on:** August 11, 2006, 09:23:58 am »

What about Felipe Paulino. He is no where close to being ready for MLB so I don't think he is much in danger of a rule 5 draft pick.

Duman · « **Reply #30 on:** August 11, 2006, 12:10:17 pm »

The Valley Cats had seven reps on the all star team:

Parraz
Salamida
Qualben
Garate
Sapp
Taylor
Buchanan

The Link

EasTexAstro · « **Reply #33 on:** August 12, 2006, 08:39:03 pm »

There has been several reports in various frms as to the pitching in the minors being strong, even to carrying some teams. Forgive me for not being more specific (or interesting, for that matter).

If the pitching is good, what is the report on how the catching prospects are having an effect on the pitching? Are they framing well? I suspect calls are generally coming from the staff in the dugout in a lot of situations...

Basically, is there another Ausmus in the future (and I leave that question wide open for interpretation)?

Duman · « **Reply #34 on:** August 14, 2006, 04:13:24 pm »

I will give a shot at the answer from the low end of the system and what a few other sources have told me.

I really liked J. R. Towles as a catcher in 2004 in Greeneville. He appeared to be good with the pitchers but with a pitching staff of Patton, Barthmaier & Guttierez, who would look bad. Has consistently been rated a top defensive catcher. His bat has improved since he left Greeneville but his attitude may have worsened.

I have watched Ralph Henriquez that last two years. I like his business like approach. There are times I wonder about effort on blocking balls. Has a pretty accurate arm, release is alittle slower than needed. Bat is coming along... maybe... hopefully.

I have heard raves about Lou Santangelo as a reciever and his bat has come around. He may be taking the top catching prospect back from Towles before the year is out.

Duman · « **Reply #35 on:** August 14, 2006, 05:03:50 pm »

I saw Greg's summary of Matt Spath who was just signed after being released by the Mets. That seems like a very short leash for a 12th round pick from 2005 out of High School. We have several 2005 picks who aren't doing as well as he was.

Does anyone know the rest of the story?

jarhead · « **Reply #36 on:** August 14, 2006, 11:30:57 pm »

From the family,We have know idea why the Mets treated him this way.Matt was doing better than most.He also was the team captain {GCL METS} and also filled in at 1st base when the team needed help.Nuf said. I think this was the best that could happen for Matt. WE ARE ASTROS NOW.
P.S. The stats keeper for the GCL Mets is not very accurate.Matt should have 2 more hits than what Milb shows.
Which would bring his average up to 250 coming to the Astros.

Duman · « **Reply #37 on:** August 16, 2006, 04:29:04 pm »

Hooks starter Troy Patton gave up four runs - two earned - in five innings before departing. He only threw 66 pitches in that time, but Clark said Patton was feeling ill, hastening his exit.

The Link

Duman · « **Reply #38 on:** August 17, 2006, 09:50:57 am »

I got to watch Sergio pitch last night. Wow. 12 more k's. That makes 3 of his last 4 starts with 12 or more K's. 52 K's over his last 5 starts. He had two 3K innings

The first hit he gave up was a broken bat blooper that fell in no mans land for a double.

He got some defensive help as well. Brandon Barnes made a great diving catch in right to save a hit. Barnes btw has raised his average 40 points since August 1 and had two solid doubles last night. He is hitting .354 for August and has 6 doubles.

Duder · « **Reply #39 on:** August 17, 2006, 11:42:31 am »

What pitches does Sergio throw? How hard does he throw? Which pitch does he throw to rack up most of his strikeouts? How is his control? I know he only walked one in six innings, but that doesn't necessarily mean his control is precise.

jbm · « **Reply #40 on:** August 17, 2006, 01:39:12 pm »

Can't answer the questions about what he throws, but last year he averaged over five walks per nine innings. However, he has brought that rate down to the mid threes this year, which is certainly good news, but his BABIP of 350 remains high for the league.

Duman · « **Reply #41 on:** August 17, 2006, 06:31:40 pm »

No radar gun available at Pioneer park. He appears to get most of his strike outs by changing speeds. When he is locating and changing speeds he looks very effective.

He is very emotional and when he gets emotional he starts over throwing. He is usually wild high. Leaving balls up which leads to his propencity to give up the long ball (4 in his last 6 starts).

One of his previous starts he had 13 k's and two of those the runners reached on missed 3rd strikes.

Lefty · « **Reply #42 on:** August 18, 2006, 11:26:49 am »

Good article about House in the Statesman, thought this was notable:

"We probably couldn't say he could come to the big leagues and catch every day. He's not at that point yet," Astros General Manager Tim Purpura said. "But he could in time. And calling him up this year is a definite possibility. It's not been ruled out."

The Link

Duman · « **Reply #43 on:** August 21, 2006, 10:44:33 am »

I know you guys are working on your end of the season wrap ups, I was just wanting to get some discussion started among the posters here. Who are the biggest surprises in the 06 minor league season? Pleasent or not so pleasent suprises.

Here are my thoughts:

Pitcher (+) - Brad James - after two years in Rookie ball and nursing an injury in EST, he has become the ace of the Lexington staff.

Batter (+) - House - He looks like a great signing at this point.

Team (-) Greeneville - With a large number of returning players, including 4 top 10 draft picks from 05, I was expecting them to hit much better and contend for the division. However they have really been a disappointment. They will likely end the season below .500. I see Tri Cities seeing alot of these guys next year for make it or break it seasons.

jbm · « **Reply #44 on:** August 21, 2006, 11:51:56 am »

Batter - Parraz. Even though it is still low minors, it's real nice to see a real live, non-Pence outfield prospect in the organization.

Pitcher - Fairchild. Low round pick. Very average last year at Tri City. Moves up and dominates at Lexington, and has started to perform better lately at Salem.

btw, I'm not sure if it is one particular scout or maybe more, but whomover is responsible for the small northeastern college finds like Fairchild, Qualbenn, Hallberg, Salamida should be given the keys to the vault. Man, those are nice lower-round pickups.

Lights Out · « **Reply #47 on:** August 21, 2006, 04:50:44 pm »

You're right, Fairchild has been a huge surprise as a 12th rounder out of a small D-3 school in Maine. Ive seen him pitch a few times this year, and he has a great sinker and big league curve ball. Watch out for this kid, hes a bulldog

Lights Out · « **Reply #48 on:** August 21, 2006, 05:05:10 pm »

great call, all 4 of those guys have the tools. I think Towles will be the next big league catcher out of the minor leagues..Fairchild is an absolute animal on the mound, attacks hitters with his hard sinker and tight curve...King is fun to watch, turns a great double play and can hit for average. Manzella wont be in A-ball for long if you ask me cause he has such incredible hands and is improving with his bat. Watch out for all 4 of those guys. PREDICTION: All 4 in AA next spring!

Michael N · « **Reply #55 on:** August 21, 2006, 08:41:14 pm »

Raymar Diaz. OF/closer in college has really come on as a starter this year with combined totals between Lex and Salem of 131.2 IP, 113 H, 45 BB, 131 K, .235 BA and 2.60 ERA.

Tommy Manzella. It's not a great year for hitters, but after an incredibly horrible April he has hit around .300 for the last 3.5 months with (I'm guessing with the hope Greg D will confirm) an OPS in the 850-range.

Fletch · « **Reply #56 on:** August 21, 2006, 09:35:15 pm »

The Link

Pence
Patton
Santangelo
Albers
McLemore
Sampson
Mike Rodriguez

Duman · « **Reply #61 on:** August 23, 2006, 09:52:36 am »

Greeneville had two make the list. Polin Trinadad and Ronald Ramirez

The Link

I am hearing rumors that Trinadad will join Tri Cities when the Greeneville Season is over.

Duman · « **Reply #62 on:** August 23, 2006, 03:34:54 pm »

It was a rough game for the ValleyCat All Stars.

Parraz - 0-1 with a walk and a run scored
Sapp - 0-2 with 2 K's, with a throwing error and a passed ball
Taylor - 0-2 with 2 K's
Buchanan - 0-2
Salamida - started, 1 inning pitched, 3 hits, 1 earned run, 1 BB, 2K
Qualben - Didn't play
Garate - Didn't play

The Link

Jacksonian · « **Reply #68 on:** August 24, 2006, 04:32:38 pm »

For those wondering, Karns, the Astros 10th round pick, attended NC State and cannot sign. Draft review has been updated.

Duder · « **Reply #69 on:** August 25, 2006, 01:23:52 am »

Dave Clark compares Hunter Pence to Vlad. The Link

"The kid is up there ready to hit, and his strike zone is a little bit different from other players."

Other Astros' farmhands in this "Fab50" include Jason Hirsh at number 10 and Chris Sampson at 22.

Greg D · « **Reply #70 on:** August 26, 2006, 07:54:00 am »

Howard, Hunter's brother, that is.

Transaction Page

Greg D · « **Reply #71 on:** August 29, 2006, 10:36:47 am »

Splits now available in an easily accessible format for players at all levels (not just AAA).

Lefty/righty, home/road, monthly, first half/second half, etc., etc., etc. Everything that minor league junkies had been pleading for for way too many years...

About the only negative I've seen so far (and I've only been playing around with it for about 5 minutes), is that splits are only shown for a player's current team. So if a guy's been promoted during the year, splits aren't available for his old team.

Just go to Milb.com and click on a player name and all will magically appear.

Froback · « **Reply #74 on:** August 29, 2006, 12:36:35 pm »

That is good news. I am still waiting for them to keep historical stuff, so that you can look at Pence (for example) and see all his stats from his entire MiL history, not just current season.

That is why I still keep my really raw spreadsheet still. Although mine doesn't have these nifty breakdowns available to it.