Tavares and the Marlins

[Curly]

Caught this article when I was looking for some stuff on Willis or Cabrera.  Not sure if this has been put in another post, because I haven't had time to read them all so here it is.

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In a nutshell: "The Marlins have an interest in Astros center fielder Willy Tavares, who is being shopped around, and the young pitching to entice Houston. But the Astros likely would need a replacement in center back in the deal."

[Matt]

Too bad the Astros don't have a Tavares

[JackAstro]

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Caught this article when I was looking for some stuff on Willis or Cabrera.  Not sure if this has been put in another post, because I haven't had time to read them all so here it is.

 Link

In a nutshell: "The Marlins have an interest in Astros center fielder Willy Tavares, who is being shopped around, and the young pitching to entice Houston. But the Astros likely would need a replacement in center back in the deal."

This is a question for those who have more understanding of the front office's thinking than I do (read: everyone). Even beyond this deal, if the Astros are shopping Willy, is it necessarily the case that they feel they need a CF back? With Burke looking at least respectable out there, Bruntlett being a good enough back-up, and Preston having experience there if injuries become an issue, I could see the possibility of Purp & Co being comfortable moving Willy without getting a CF back in the deal. Or is management not inclined to think of Burke as a full-time solution in center for the foreseeable future?

[JimR]

Burke definitely is not a long term CFer, imo. he has some of the same problems WT has in taking a good angle/path to the ball. why shouldn't he? he is a 2B.

[ybbodeus]

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Too bad the Astros don't have a Tavares

Yeah, speaking of one hit wonders...

[Lefty]

I'd think that with Burke's shoulder one swing away from popping out again & putting him on the bench for who knows how long, the Stros like having Willy here as a backup & defensive replacement.  They don't have another viable replacement CF - that's not Bruntlett or Wilson for any length of time.

Lane working at CF in AAA is pretty telling.  I don't think they're averse to trading Willy - not by a long stretch - but I can see why they'd want him or someone like him (defensively) on the team.

[David in Jackson]

Could we see an OF of Berkman, Huff and Wilson in CF, with Lamb at 1b?

[Arky Vaughan]

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Could we see an OF of Berkman, Huff and Wilson in CF, with Lamb at 1b?

If Burke's shoulder pops out and can't be popped back in again, expect to see that sometimes.

[hostros7]

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Could we see an OF of Berkman, Huff and Wilson in CF, with Lamb at 1b?

In all seriousness, would this give us the worst defensive starting lineup in the NL?  I like it offensively.

[HudsonHawk]

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Could we see an OF of Berkman, Huff and Wilson in CF, with Lamb at 1b?

In all seriousness, would this give us the worst defensive starting lineup in the NL?  I like it offensively.

Why would you say that?  Berkman and Wilson are fine defensive outfielders, and Lamb is just fine at 1B.

[hostros7]

Outfield coverage?  I have never seen Wilson play center of Huff in the OF to be honest. Maybe not an uptick in errors but a lot more balls hit to the outfield finding holes? On second thought, can't too large a step down from any other Astro CFer in the MMPUS era, save perhaps that rental from a couple years back

[David in Jackson]

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Could we see an OF of Berkman, Huff and Wilson in CF, with Lamb at 1b?

In all seriousness, would this give us the worst defensive starting lineup in the NL?  I like it offensively.

The proposed lineup that scares me the most defensively is Lamb at 3b and Munson.  I know!  We can then play Burke at SS!

[JimR]

Wilson is an excellent OFer and can play CF well, imo.

[VirtualBob]

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Could we see an OF of Berkman, Huff and Wilson in CF, with Lamb at 1b?

In all seriousness, would this give us the worst defensive starting lineup in the NL?  I like it offensively.

The proposed lineup that scares me the most defensively is Lamb at 3b and Munson.  I know!  We can then play Burke at SS!

And Ausmus at 2B?  Or would that be an upgrade on Bidge?

[Jacksonian]

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Burke definitely is not a long term CFer, imo. he has some of the same problems WT has in taking a good angle/path to the ball. why shouldn't he? he is a 2B.

Whaddya think?  If Taveras can fetch a quality bullpen arm would Burke be good enough for you for the rest of this season in CF?

[JackAstro]

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Burke definitely is not a long term CFer, imo. he has some of the same problems WT has in taking a good angle/path to the ball. why shouldn't he? he is a 2B.

Whaddya think?  If Taveras can fetch a quality bullpen arm would Burke be good enough for you for the rest of this season in CF?

What's your thinking on the plan for after this season?

[JimR]

if that is all the team has.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

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Burke definitely is not a long term CFer, imo. he has some of the same problems WT has in taking a good angle/path to the ball. why shouldn't he? he is a 2B.

Whaddya think?  If Taveras can fetch a quality bullpen arm would Burke be good enough for you for the rest of this season in CF?

Wasn't there a report in the Minor League forum indicating Josh Anderson has shown significant improvement at the plate?  Between him, Burke not having a position for another season next year, and Wilson's ability to play CF, I would guess that Taveras is not indispensible.

[Jacksonian]

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Burke definitely is not a long term CFer, imo. he has some of the same problems WT has in taking a good angle/path to the ball. why shouldn't he? he is a 2B.

Whaddya think?  If Taveras can fetch a quality bullpen arm would Burke be good enough for you for the rest of this season in CF?

What's your thinking on the plan for after this season?

There will be a whole lot of room on the 40-man roster for a FA or trade this winter.  Josh Anderson could be a solution, but I'm not hearing the Astros talk about him for 2007.

[Jacksonian]

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Burke definitely is not a long term CFer, imo. he has some of the same problems WT has in taking a good angle/path to the ball. why shouldn't he? he is a 2B.

Whaddya think?  If Taveras can fetch a quality bullpen arm would Burke be good enough for you for the rest of this season in CF?

Wasn't there a report in the Minor League forum indicating Josh Anderson has shown significant improvement at the plate?  Between him, Burke not having a position for another season next year, and Wilson's ability to play CF, I would guess that Taveras is not indispensible.

Anderson is improved.  But, he's not ready for the majors.

[BizidyDizidy]

There are several FA center fielders coming on the market (at least potentially) including Torii Hunter, Gary Matthews Jr., Anaheim Jim and Juan Pierre. So that's a possibility.

[S.P. Rodriguez]

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Burke definitely is not a long term CFer, imo. he has some of the same problems WT has in taking a good angle/path to the ball. why shouldn't he? he is a 2B.

Whaddya think?  If Taveras can fetch a quality bullpen arm would Burke be good enough for you for the rest of this season in CF?

Wasn't there a report in the Minor League forum indicating Josh Anderson has shown significant improvement at the plate?  Between him, Burke not having a position for another season next year, and Wilson's ability to play CF, I would guess that Taveras is not indispensible.

Anderson is improved.  But, he's not ready for the majors.

Sorry, I didn't meant to imply he would be.  With Biggio likely playing at least 1 more season, or partial season, Burke is still without a position.  If Biggio gets to 3000 and retires, Burke could move to 2B and Wilson could take over primary duties in CF, assuming the Astros pick up the 3 yr option.

Anderson wouldn't come into the picture, currently in AA, until 2008 at the earliest, is my guess.

[astro pete]

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If Biggio gets to 3000 and retires,  

No. Way.

[cc]

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Burke definitely is not a long term CFer, imo. he has some of the same problems WT has in taking a good angle/path to the ball. why shouldn't he? he is a 2B.

Whaddya think?  If Taveras can fetch a quality bullpen arm would Burke be good enough for you for the rest of this season in CF?

Wasn't there a report in the Minor League forum indicating Josh Anderson has shown significant improvement at the plate?  Between him, Burke not having a position for another season next year, and Wilson's ability to play CF, I would guess that Taveras is not indispensible.

Anderson is improved.  But, he's not ready for the majors.

Besides, he's not 26 yet, which is the organizationally approved optimal time to bring up AAA prospects.

[BizidyDizidy]

Just like they did with Roy Oswalt, Kirk Saarloos, Willy Taveras, Fernando Nieve, Wade Miller, Adam Everett and for old times' sake Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell.

[cc]

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Just like they did with Roy Oswalt, Kirk Saarloos, Willy Taveras, Fernando Nieve, Wade Miller, Adam Everett and for old times' sake Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell.

Are you actually refuting this admittedly blase and hyperbolic statement with a sampling of exceptions?  Because that's what they are, exceptions.  I think you might want to look at the track record of the past two decades.  I think you'll find that there are far more guys in the 25-26 range than in the 21-23 range making their debuts with the Astros.  And it's not just when they make their debuts as when they seem ready to make solid contributions over a full season.  Take Ensberg, Lane, Burke, Rodriguez as just a few examples.  Granted their slower, more conservative philosophy (even the Astros admit this) has worked for them, but that doesn't mean it's the only way, or that I have to like it as an Astros fan since the mid-60s.

Oh, and you left out Carlos Hernandez, who was only 21 when he came up.  Yes, 2001 was a wonderful time, but those phenoms were exceptions.  Plenty of organizations find a way to bring up more guys who are ready at a younger age, for whatever reason.  I would like to see this happen with the Astros more often, that's all.  It would be great to have a core of players accumulate significant playing experience before their mid-30s.  It's all too rare with this franchise.

[No? in Austin]

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Take Ensberg, Lane, Burke, Rodriguez as just a few examples.  Granted their slower, more conservative philosophy (even the Astros admit this) has worked for them, but that doesn't mean it's the only way, or that I have to like it as an Astros fan since the mid-60s

Who is Rodriquez?  Wandy or Wilfredo? And the conservative route was a staple of Hunsicker's regime and not necessarily an across the board philosophy of the organization.  The most shocking callup I think I ever heard Hunsicker make was Kirk Saarloos.

Purpura is a different cat.

[BizidyDizidy]

So, of the Astros developed players on the team currently we have Buchholz (24), Nieve (turns 24 tomorrow), Lidge (26 at first callup, injury plagued), Oswalt (23 when he came up), Qualls (26 when he came up), Wandy (26 when he came up, but how old was he as Eny Cabreja? - hardly a good example), Berkman (23), Biggio (23), Burke (ripe old age of 24), Taveras (22), Ensberg (26), and Adam Everett (25).

(I've tried to make sure that I didn't start them when they got a september call-up but a mistake or two is possible).

For those scoring at home, that's 7 in the 24 and younger crowd, and 5 in the 25 and up crowd. That also includes injury plagued lidge and the incredible aging Eny. I guess I define the word exception differently than you do.

[cc]

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Take Ensberg, Lane, Burke, Rodriguez as just a few examples.  Granted their slower, more conservative philosophy (even the Astros admit this) has worked for them, but that doesn't mean it's the only way, or that I have to like it as an Astros fan since the mid-60s

Who is Rodriquez?  Wandy or Wilfredo? And the conservative route was a staple of Hunsicker's regime and not necessarily an across the board philosophy of the organization.  The most shocking callup I think I ever heard Hunsicker make was Kirk Saarloos.

Purpura is a different cat.

Wandy.  And I hope Purpura is a different cat in that regard.  It's hard to argue with the Astros' recent track record with player development translating to success at the major league level, but I would certainly like to see them "risk" bringing up a prospect too soon more frequently than they do.  It's not like the Braves haven't been able to do it consistently over the last 15 years.  There are others such as the Dodgers who seem to get their stud prospects major-league ready at earlier ages than do the Astros.  There are other teams as well.

The Astros don't deserve, need or want any defense on this front.  They seem ok with having institutionalized the more deliberate approach.  I still think they would be better off if they allowed more flexibility for special players who warrant fast-tracking.

[BizidyDizidy]

It seems like your problem is that we don't have very many players in the 19-21 range more than the 22-24 range. That seems true but I wonder how many of those there really are in the majors, and if they are better served by these early call-ups.

[VirtualBob]

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It seems like your problem is that we don't have very many players in the 19-21 range more than the 22-24 range. That seems true but I wonder how many of those there really are in the majors, and if they are better served by these early call-ups.

And don't forget the Rule V losses ... off the top of my head, there were Johan Santana, Felix Escalona, Aaron Miles, Donaldo Mendez & DJ Houlton.  Only one of those seems to have been really ready.  The astros brass were right on 80% of my non-random sample.

[Arky Vaughan]

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It seems like your problem is that we don't have very many players in the 19-21 range more than the 22-24 range. That seems true but I wonder how many of those there really are in the majors, and if they are better served by these early call-ups.

Aren't the Astros known to shy away from high school players and to focus on college players in the draft? That would certainly be a reason for players reaching the majors later. Also, given that the Astros have been almost consistently successful from 1994 to 2005, I would also guess that this would have an impact on the number of young players they put on the roster.

In any event, I'm not disputing that the Astros do or don't have an institutional tendency to promote players later than other teams, but I'd like to see the hard numbers on that before accepting that it's definitely the case.

[cc]

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So, of the Astros developed players on the team currently we have Buchholz (24), Nieve (turns 24 tomorrow), Lidge (26 at first callup, injury plagued), Oswalt (23 when he came up), Qualls (26 when he came up), Wandy (26 when he came up, but how old was he as Eny Cabreja? - hardly a good example), Berkman (23), Biggio (23), Burke (ripe old age of 24), Taveras (22), Ensberg (26), and Adam Everett (25).

(I've tried to make sure that I didn't start them when they got a september call-up but a mistake or two is possible).

For those scoring at home, that's 7 in the 24 and younger crowd, and 5 in the 25 and up crowd. That also includes injury plagued lidge and the incredible aging Eny. I guess I define the word exception differently than you do.

That's why I made the point that the age at which they were able to make a full season's contribution at this level is what counted more.  I also defined the young range as 21-23, so that paints a different picture as well.

Now, looking at your list, a few observations:

1. Taveras was 23 before he had solid service time.  

2. I'd say Burke's first year is this year, so his age of readiness is 26, certainly no earlier than 25 if you count the 108 games he played last year.  

3. I'll give you Biggio since I mentioned the past two decades.  

4. But throw in Lane even though he was demoted today since he's still in the organization.  He was 27.  

5. Berkman was 24 before he received significant playing time.  

6. Bruntlett, whom you excluded, was 26 or 27.

To summarize, in the Under-24 category, you have Biggio, Oswalt and Taveras, whose primary development time was in another org., a fact which may account for his readiness at an earlier age.  And I'll even throw in Bagwell, since he was a stud at 23.  So besides the two graybeards, who became valuable at 23, only Roy and Willy T. on the current roster fit that category.  That leaves Buchholz and presumably Nieve at 24, and the others 25 or older. And by the way, not a single one comes in at under 23.

That's not a fast-tracking trend; with a few exceptions from your list, that indicates a rather slow development process.

[Arky Vaughan]

What are the comparisons to other organizations over a reasonably demonstrative period of time?

[cc]

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What are the comparisons to other organizations over a reasonably demonstrative period of time?

If I take 5 organizations, two in the AL and three in the NL, here's what I find:

1. Atlanta - We shouldn't waste time on this one.  Obviously they've proven to bring prospects up to the big leagues earlier than the Astros in recent years.  With a quick glance, not counting Furcal, there's Andruw Jones, Chipper, Smoltz, Francoeur, McCann, Davies (still 22 and has logged 130 ML innings and likely would have more if not for injury), all under 23.  In fact, other than Chipper at 23, they were all each 22 or younger at the point they had more than a cup of coffee.

2. Minnesota - Among the 23 or under group: Hunter (23), Liriano (22), Radke (22), Santana (130 innings by 22; and yes, he counts, because the point to be made is that we can't say for certain whether he would have found his way to the Astros that quickly or not had he stayed in the org.  We only know he did for the Twins, just as Taveras became an everyday CF for the Stros at 23), Lohse (reached 90 innings with 16 GS at 22), Crain (23; roughly same as Nieve), Morneau (already over 400 ABs at 23) and Mauer (600 ABs at 22).  I didn't bother looking at the rest.

3. Mets - Wright (263 ABs at 21; full season at 22), Reyes (300 ABs at 20) and Pelfrey (22, but just made his ML debut).  That's about all I could find among home-grown talent on the current roster.  Heilman at 24 with 13 GS is about the only other one.  Bannister (25 but barely any service time) and Feliciano (27) are two more.  Looks like the rest came up with other orgs.  Clearly, Wright and Reyes are younger than any Astro cited, and Pelfrey is probably right there with Houston's youngest examples.

4. Yankees - Jeter (21 with approx. 250 ABs), Rivera (26), Proctor (29), Williams (22), Posada (26), Cabrera (21), Cano (22), and that's about it among the 26 and under.  They're all over the map, but at least they've demonstrated even through greater major league success than the Astros that they're not averse to bringing up top prospects at 21 or 22.  Don't forget Soriano in recent years either.

5. St. Louis - Pujols (21), Ankiel (20; like Bagwell, on the roster.  Maybe not the best example for arguing the merits of earlier call-ups but demonstrates at least the organization's willingness to do it), Molina (22), Reyes (projected at 100 innings by 24), Luna (25).  The rest is stocked with veterans acquisitions or older young guys still not proven.

I could also check the trends of the Rangers, Mariners, Dodgers, Marlins and Tribe...pretty sure what the results would show.

[No? in Austin]

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Take Ensberg, Lane, Burke, Rodriguez as just a few examples.  Granted their slower, more conservative philosophy (even the Astros admit this) has worked for them, but that doesn't mean it's the only way, or that I have to like it as an Astros fan since the mid-60s

Who is Rodriquez?  Wandy or Wilfredo? And the conservative route was a staple of Hunsicker's regime and not necessarily an across the board philosophy of the organization.  The most shocking callup I think I ever heard Hunsicker make was Kirk Saarloos.

Purpura is a different cat.

Wandy.  And I hope Purpura is a different cat in that regard.  It's hard to argue with the Astros' recent track record with player development translating to success at the major league level, but I would certainly like to see them "risk" bringing up a prospect too soon more frequently than they do.  It's not like the Braves haven't been able to do it consistently over the last 15 years.  There are others such as the Dodgers who seem to get their stud prospects major-league ready at earlier ages than do the Astros.  There are other teams as well.

The Astros don't deserve, need or want any defense on this front.  They seem ok with having institutionalized the more deliberate approach.  I still think they would be better off if they allowed more flexibility for special players who warrant fast-tracking.

This is about Hunter Pence, isn't it?

[MusicMan]

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It's hard to argue with the Astros' recent track record with player development translating to success at the major league level, but I would certainly like to see them "risk" bringing up a prospect too soon more frequently than they do.  

I just love this sentence... "It's hard to argue with their success, but I'm going to do so anyway."

[pravata]

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So, of the Astros developed players on the team currently we have Buchholz (24), Nieve (turns 24 tomorrow), Lidge (26 at first callup, injury plagued), Oswalt (23 when he came up), Qualls (26 when he came up), Wandy (26 when he came up, but how old was he as Eny Cabreja? - hardly a good example), Berkman (23), Biggio (23), Burke (ripe old age of 24), Taveras (22), Ensberg (26), and Adam Everett (25).

(I've tried to make sure that I didn't start them when they got a september call-up but a mistake or two is possible).

For those scoring at home, that's 7 in the 24 and younger crowd, and 5 in the 25 and up crowd. That also includes injury plagued lidge and the incredible aging Eny. I guess I define the word exception differently than you do.

That's why I made the point that the age at which they were able to make a full season's contribution at this level is what counted more.  I also defined the young range as 21-23, so that paints a different picture as well.

Now, looking at your list, a few observations:

1. Taveras was 23 before he had solid service time.  

2. I'd say Burke's first year is this year, so his age of readiness is 26, certainly no earlier than 25 if you count the 108 games he played last year.  

3. I'll give you Biggio since I mentioned the past two decades.  

4. But throw in Lane even though he was demoted today since he's still in the organization.  He was 27.  

5. Berkman was 24 before he received significant playing time.  

6. Bruntlett, whom you excluded, was 26 or 27.

To summarize, in the Under-24 category, you have Biggio, Oswalt and Taveras, whose primary development time was in another org., a fact which may account for his readiness at an earlier age.  And I'll even throw in Bagwell, since he was a stud at 23.  So besides the two graybeards, who became valuable at 23, only Roy and Willy T. on the current roster fit that category.  That leaves Buchholz and presumably Nieve at 24, and the others 25 or older. And by the way, not a single one comes in at under 23.

That's not a fast-tracking trend; with a few exceptions from your list, that indicates a rather slow development process.

They've tried other players.  Ensberg, not sure of his age at the time, had to be sent down after an aborted start.  Lane, they really tried with him.  How old was Hidalgo? Luke Scott? There's a handful of pitchers that didnt stick. The issue may be not that the Astros don't want to try younger players, the issue may be that their system isn't producing younger players.  Everyone is all hopped up on Pence.  Simultaneously people say that Purpura is knowledgable about the minor system.  Why is it that Purpura is keeping him in AA?

The other thing that is being ignored about the Astros is the context of the team in relation to the city for the past 10 years; building a new park, trying to increase attendance, GM who felt every year was the last for a couple of aging icons, and the increased pressure to win.  Does trading minor league players to play for other teams count as bringing young players to the majors early?

[Limey]

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In all seriousness, would this give us the worst defensive starting lineup in the NL?  I like it offensively.

Arguably yes.  Is it worse than the one that had Bidge in left and Berkman in center (can't remember who played right in that trio)?